Cheltenham 2018/2019

Desert Orchid said:
I'm left totally underwhelmed by this weekend's racing.
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I wonder if not seeing most of it live or not winning as much as anticipated was behind this feeling. Looking back through the form and working out some figures, I'm seeing some really good performances.

Friday started really positively. I was in town and had to go to the bookies to see the first race. When The Young Master won I knew I was covered for the day and was genuinely anticipating further gains with A Hare Breath, Jenkins and Double Treasure, the last-named of which I could not see out of the frame and a strong bet. AHB did not run at all well, never looking anywhere near the trainer's reported high opinion of him. Jenkins looked over-priced and did well to get to within a couple of lengths of the winner after losing ten lengths from the last ditch to the bottom of the hill. I wonder if the course doesn't suit him. Double Treasure pulled up. My ratings for the winners of the races suggest Jenkins is a better horse than Count Meribel and Double Treasure would have beaten Coolanly but A Hare Breath would need to have improved by nearly as much as Bun Doran did to have beaten him. Still, he should have been a clear second on his best form and a place accumulator could have been on.

Saturday should have been a good day too. As I noted elsewhere, my rating for Kalondra says he would have won the big race. Incidentally, I was on the phone on Monday night and was asked by someone who had just watched the race if I thought Kalondra's jockey's instructions were to ride the horse with as much confidence as possible and not to worry about his position in the race as he was going to win regardless so could afford to win by as little as possible. Looking at the race again, that might make sense. He wasn't at all far behind Mister Whitaker and Guitar Pete when he blundered Fehily off. Had he followed Mister Whitaker through the rest of the race it would not have surprised me if he'd left that one for dead up the hill. This makes me think I was right to declare during the week that Kalondra was a 2/1 shot for the race. Earlier on the day, Vicente was my main bet in the race won by Rock The Kasbah but my figures suggest he'd have done well to have beaten Royal Vacation, let alone the winner. I genuinely thought Vicente was the most likely of the three to run his race but there you go. That's punting for you. I probably have Sweet Home Chicago's rating all wrong but it did not appear to me that he was ridden to win. Whether that was deliberate or down to incompetence I don't know but a big forward move when the pace was picking up over on the far side couldn't have helped. Although the winner went up 13lbs my rating for SHC would still have seen him win but as I say that figure is probably flawed. Speedo Boy and Mellow Ben in the next just about recouped the day's outlay and it was more with relief than enjoyment that I watched that race.

I had a lot to do on Sunday and only had bets in the Greatwood and a freebie on Claimantakinforgan in the first TV race. Fortunately one of the Greatwood bets was Nietzsche so that managed to get my head in front over the weekend but I was probably still suffering from the disappointment of Kalondra.

My figures say The Young Master, Bun Doran, Baron Alco, Frodon and Kalondra all remain ahead of the handicapper. We won't know until next Tuesday how the assessor has treated Sunday's winners but I'll be surprised if the Greatwood sees any more than a 5lbs rise for the winner. I think it was a substandard race and if Verdana Blue had run to her Elite form she'd have hacked up.

We shall see.
 
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Had an email this morning, for 48hours they are doing Festival tickets at November prices

"The Festival™ Presented by Magners are four days that you don't want to miss, so we are giving you an exclusive chance to book your Cheltenham Festival Tickets at the November price, saving you £14 off the on the day price. For 48hrs only!"
 
The BHA on Wednesday released the findings of its review into the fatalities at this year's Cheltenham Festival, with changes aimed at improving welfare including a reduction to the maximum field sizes in two-mile chases and the removal of weight-claiming allowances in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Handicap Hurdle.

The report contains a total of 17 recommendations for all Cheltenham fixtures and across jump racing as a whole following an investigation into the death of six horses at the festival in March.

Among those is the lowering of the safety factor to 20 (from 24) in two-mile chases, with the Grand Annual – in which three horses suffered fatal injuries last season – the race most likely to be affected by the change.

The race conditions of the Martin Pipe will be altered to remove all rider weight-claiming allowances in an attempt to encourage connections to secure the services of the most experienced jockeys.

In another development, pre-race veterinary checks will be increased to include all runners at the festival.

Headline recommendations from the review

- Pre-race veterinary examinations will be increased to include all runners in all races at the festival, with a view to identifying any risk factors that might make it necessary to prevent a horse from running in a race
- Reduction in safety factor (maximum field size) in all two-mile chases run at the course from 24 to 20, with the race most likely to be affected by this being the Grand Annual Chase
- Race conditions of the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle to be altered to remove all rider weight-claiming allowances, thereby incentivising connections to secure the services of the most experienced jockeys
- BHA to engage with participants to further identify factors that contribute to risk. This will include undertaking analysis of faller rates by trainer and jockey for Cheltenham and all jump racing and engaging with those who have an incidence of fallers significantly higher than the average, alongside a wide range of other relevant participants
- The industry must support a major research project to develop a predictive model for identifying risk factors for all jump racing, including horse history and performance, rider and training factors. Any risks arising from this significant work will be addressed and mitigated appropriately

The six fatalities at this year's festival represented a rate of 1.3 per cent of 2018 festival runners, compared to the nationwide jump racing average of 0.4 per cent.

Following the analysis of the Cheltenham Festivals staged between 2007 and 2018, the report claims the evidence found that "no single factor was definitively responsible for the equine fatalities at the 2018 festival" and "non-track factors – such as veterinary, participant, and race condition factors – could potentially be of equal, or potentially greater, significance than track-related factors".

The publishing of the report comes two months after a debate was held in parliament as a consequence of animal rights organisation Animal Aid gathering enough signatures on a petition calling for the BHA to be stripped of its role as the body with responsibility for equine welfare.

BHA chief executive Nick Rust said: "British racing must work together to reduce the risk of injuries occurring at the festival and indeed jump racing as a whole. The recommendations of this review are designed to achieve this.

"I commend this review for the rigour and thoroughness of its approach. I also support the fact that its recommendations are intended to further raise the bar when it comes to welfare, not only at Cheltenham but across all of jump racing.

"British racing has consistently and continuously improved its record on welfare outcomes over the last decade. However, parliament has recently sent a clear message to our sport that we must raise our ambitions for welfare further. At the BHA, we share this view, and I am today calling on everyone in the sport to help us achieve even higher goals for welfare."

He added: "The Cheltenham review helps demonstrate our sport’s commitment towards higher goals, but it is far from the end of our ambitions on this front.

"A cross-industry welfare board is currently being formed, with the intention of delivering a new strategy for the sport. I hope that everyone involved in British racing will join us in working to further enhance our good track record, and ensuring the sport remains relevant, understood, accepted and embraced by the British public."

According to the report, an action plan for the implementation of the recommendations will be developed by February 2019.
 
Won't be that long before they ban the whip. I give it 5 years. Luckily Blake wrote an excellent article regarding it the other day.

Only race I remember that shouldn't have been run was the amateur race (Foxhunters) if I remember correctly. Was an absolute disgrace.
 
I'm not sure where to put this, but Shantou Flyer, second in The Ultima last year, entered in a Hunters Chase at Taunton on Wednesday.
 
Dates of Festival entries

8 Jan Cheltenham Gold Cup, Queen Mother Champion Chase, Ryanair Chase

15 Jan Champion Hurdle, Mares Hurdle, Stayers Hurdle

22 Jan Arkle, National Hunt Chase, RSA Chase, JLT Novices Chase

29 Jan Supreme Novices Hurdle, Ballymore Novices Hurdle, Triumph Hurdle, Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle

19 Feb – Ultima Chase , Close Bros Novices Handicap Chase, Coral Cup, Fred Winter, Pertemps Final Hurdle, Festival Plate, Kim Muir Challenge Cup, County Hurdle, Martin Pipe, Grand Annual

26 Feb – Cross Country, Bumper, Mares Nov, Foxhunters
 
Yes I'm the same as you. I've no intention of backing him but will be interested to see how he gets on in any event.
 
Only mishap can beat him tomorrow.

I've backed The Last Samuri for the Foxhunters (10/1 NRNB/BOG, Sky) and put him in doubles with the same firm/concessions to smallish stakes with The Worlds End for the RSA/4-miler.
 
43 entries for the Cheltenham Gold Cup (38 last year) *** Entries announced Wed 9th ***

22 in the Queen Mother (30 last year) *** Entries announced Thurs 10th ***

44 in the Ryanair Chase (44 last year) *** Entries announced Thurs 10th ***
 
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I couldn't have anything other than Gilgamboa on my mind for the Foxhunters. On the face of it 5/1 doesn't look like much of a price but if he wins any prep race (which I'd expect him to do) and lines up on the day then I find it hard to see him getting beat and the 5/1, which is NRNB, would look good - bigger prices out there without the concession of course.
 
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