Cheltenham 2024 NRNB

Desert Orchid said:
Sounds like Megan has just confirmed that Caldwell Potter won't be going to the festival, saying her old man wants to give the horse more time to settle in.

I had it at 10s for both the Supreme and Ballymore so am thankful for NRNB.
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I watched Caldwell Potter run and he is defintely a chaser in the making.

But when you compare what he cost to what Jonbon cost his chances of making his owners a profit are not great.

He has won £67,666 to date but Jonbon at the same age had amassed £200,000 and in total to date £616,441 which is less than whet they paid for Caldwell Potter.

Jonbon to win that amount has won 12 races so far Caldwell Potter has won 3 and we may not see him until April or next season.

I've seen some owners take a gamble but this one was very poorly thought out in my oppinion.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Sounds like Megan has just confirmed that Caldwell Potter won't be going to the festival, saying her old man wants to give the horse more time to settle in.

I had it at 10s for both the Supreme and Ballymore so am thankful for NRNB.
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My (small compared with previous years) AP portfolio is in tatters with this news although I feared it would be the case with the news that the Caldwell horses wouldn’t be running at the DRF
Allaho, Inthepocket other non-runners with Iroko, Burdett Road, and Jonbon all backed at shorter prices than those currently available [emoji35]


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5/4 with a run is tremendous value -will be way shorter on the day.This horse has captured the imagination of Irish punters.
 
Tanlic said:
I dare say Ballyburn could be a good thing but he simply didn't impress me as much as past favourites have.

Willie Mullins has an army of entries Gordon Elliott has 10 and Nicky has 8 so just about anything could happen.

I will be steering well clear of the race as there are much less complicated affairs with 5/4 shots to be backing
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Replying to this.
 
Feeling ok with only four weeks to go. I've had better portfolios but also much worse. One of my main strategies is trying to get roll ups onto fancies but also protection horses. I didn't do this last season as I was so focused on the Superbowl and so my rollovers were on American Football teams rather than Cheltenham horses.

Supreme:
Rollover Captain Teague/Ballyburn (B/Bingham). Wrong race but I backed the latter for the Supreme at 7s NRNB immediately after the Newbury race. I've topped up at 3s and have him in rollovers with Allegorie yesterday and the 49ers tonight.

Arkle:
Rollover Elixir de Nutz (Haldon) Facile Vega. Not worked, cashed out for minimal return after the Irish Arkle.
Rollover Sure Touch (Taunton the other day) JPR ONE. Also punted Quilixios at 14s and 12s. Want to be against the front of the market.

Ultima:
Chianti Classico in the book at 12s and 10s NRNB, win only.

Mares:
Luccia NR, Magical Zoe at 16s, also likely gone. Very small position likely NR on Brandy Love

NHC:
Minella Cocooner at 25s apost, small win only

Baring Bingham
Aforementioned CT/Ballyburn rollover likely loser
Slade Steel in the book NRNB at 10s and also in a NRNB ew double with Banbridge (Ryan) at 12s and 14s. Best position I have

Brown Advisory:
Bad race - I have Sandor Clegane, Corbetts Cross and Iroko all losers

XC:
Minella Indo not a big position at 11/2. Apost.

Ryanair:
Excellent position on Banbridge both with Slade Steel and in at 16s apost. Small ew NRNB at 10s
Also NR Impervious and a Baltimore (AFC North)/Jonbon rollover likely dead in the water.

Albert Bartlett:
Slade Steel likely apost loser

Gold Cup:
Not a sexy postion now (average 12s) but I do have him in a rollover with a 12/1 winner on the NFL (Baltimore best reg season record) so he'd be my biggest winner.

So a fairly clean book with some non runners but that's always gonna happen and I've had much worse. I remember few years ago being on Klassical Dream for the Supreme and A Plus Tard when he won the 2 1/1 mile novices handicap in the opening day and those two wins barely covered my NR losses for the whole week. So I was level entering the Wed despite two nice winners.
 
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LUKE said:
5/4 with a run is tremendous value -will be way shorter on the day.This horse has captured the imagination of Irish punters.
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I just wonder are they following the trend rather than what the horse has shown. Sure he won well last time but he was pushed out, flat out which worries me a bit.

Hope he does win for his owners who come across as a couple of really nice guys
 
Tanlic said:
I just wonder are they following the trend rather than what the horse has shown. Sure he won well last time but he was pushed out, flat out which worries me a bit.

Hope he does win for his owners who come across as a couple of really nice guys
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I think he will go for home after the second last and absolutely charge up the hill to the roars of punters who are knee deep in him.Anything that tries to go with him will be legless.
 
Just fannying about during half-time in the football, I've taken Anotherway 25/1 NRNB for the Supreme (ew).

Its RPR of 147 is the fifth highest in the field [at the moment], this is its only entry and of those between it and Ballyburn:

Caldwell Potter won't run
Predator's Gold is 66/1 so presumably doesn't run
Slade Steel is 20/1 for this and 9/2 for the Ballymore so presumably goes for Wednesday's race.

Anotherway's RPR is 3lbs higher than 5/1 shot Mighty Potter's.

So could Anotherway be Mullins's second best horse in the race? With the NRNB concession there's not really much to lose in having it onside at this point.
 
At last Christmas has come early in form of a horse really worth betting in the form of Paul Nicholls' Teeshan

He WILL WIN the Champion Bumper and be fav next year's Supreme

Teeshan 8/1 should be 5/2 at best get on
 
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Tanlic said:
At last Christmas has come early in form of a horse really worth betting in the form of Paul Nicholls' Teeshan

He WILL WIN the Champion Bumper and be fav next year's Supreme

Teeshan 8/1 should be 5/2 at best get on
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Think they are already talking of bypassing Cheltenham for Aintree.
 
He did with Knappers Hill and Stage star so it will be on people's minds but so far nothing has been said but that could be why he is not much shorter..

Much will depend in what emerges in the next couple of week because so far nothing in Ireland looks special.

What might swing things is the trainers title Nicky is behind but has Constitution Hill who will surely add to his tally and the bumper is worth twice as much as the Aintree race.

Time will tell but for once the home team look like having the upper hand.
 
I have my smallest ever ante-post Festival book.

No meaningful bets to speak of. A few quid at 25/1 about Il Etait Temps for the Arkle (same bet in Turners), but not exactly confident about it, and same applies to Jeriko De Reponet in Supreme. I’ve daft prices too about Jit Langy and Gold Dancer in the Supreme and Ballymore - though I’d be happy just to get either of them to the tape.

I have a couple of multis built around Stage Star (Ryanair) and Salvdor Ziggy (NHC), and that’s about it. Singles on Iroko and A Plus Tard (small haymaker at 65/1) both down the Swannee, but no real damage.

The arse is a bit torn out of Festival ante-post. Unless it a proper dart at a fat price on the Exchange, it’s usually better to wait for the day. As Luke has suggested, there will likely be a freight-train of money for Ballyburn in the opener, and that will ensure others start at better prices than they are now.
 
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LUKE said:
They have been for a while -a word of warning regarding 365-they have NRNB and all in markets for all races at Cheltenham.
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SkyBet also have NRNB and ante-post markets in all festival races


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It already looks like another year when you can have 4 certainties in an accie and as sure as God made little green apples something will get trurned over.

Constitution Hill
Gallopin Des Champs
El Fabiolo
Lossie Mouth

Returns 659 pounds to 100 pounds........going by past years chances all 4 will win probably zero
 
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Call me lyreen. 25/1 grand annual. Nrnb
Frero banbou 20/1. Grand annual. Nrnb

Salver. 14/1. Fred winter. Nrnb

Harvard guy. 12/1 coral cup. Nrnb

Mister coffey. 40/1. Kim muir. Not nrnb.taking the chance as only 25s nrnb.
 
Outsider said:
Frero banbou 20/1. Grand annual. Nrnb
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How many times have you backed this horse?:)

I've added Monty's Star in the BA. The front of the market looks a bit weak here with F2F likely (hopefully) going to the shorter race. I cannot have Grey Dawning one bit (Skelton plus he's a mistake waiting to happen) and Stay Away Fay is a bit too boaty. He ran well enough in the Cotswold but that was over nearly two furlongs further than the BA trip and on the new course. Monty's Star's form doesn't look that mega but I did like the way he finished his race against Three Card Brag at Punchy and Monalee's best form came on better ground so I'd expect some improvement there also.
 
Taking outCaldwell Pooter (since it was NRNB), I'm left with (in the order I backed them):

Supreme: Mystical Power 16/1 ew
Triumph: Burdett Road 33/1 ew
Turners: Letsbeclearaboutit 16/1
NHC: Salvador Ziggy 10/1 ew (certainty)
Mares: West Balboa16/1 ew
Stayers: West Balboa 66/1 ew
Ch Chase: Captain Guinness 20/1 ew
Gold Cup: Corach Rambler 20/1 ew; 16/1 ew w/o GDC


OK, so a couple of them are not the cleverest but that's punting.
 
Euronymous said:
How many times have you backed this horse?:)

I've added Monty's Star in the BA. The front of the market looks a bit weak here with F2F likely (hopefully) going to the shorter race. I cannot have Grey Dawning one bit (Skelton plus he's a mistake waiting to happen) and Stay Away Fay is a bit too boaty. He ran well enough in the Cotswold but that was over nearly two furlongs further than the BA trip and on the new course. Monty's Star's form doesn't look that mega but I did like the way he finished his race against Three Card Brag at Punchy and Monalee's best form came on better ground so I'd expect some improvement there also.
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Nearly always but only small stakes because its been running over 2m4.
Obviously Venetia knows better than me but I've always thought 2m was best.
3rd in the GA 2 yes ago.
 
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