Cheltenham Festival Preview nights

Met Slim last night had a nice drink and a chat about the important things in life.
Slim is 100 per cent sound and I hope we can meet up at the races sometime.
We didn't make it to the preview.
 
LUKE said:
Met Slim last night had a nice drink and a chat about the important things in life.
Slim is 100 per cent sound and I hope we can meet up at the races sometime.
We didn't make it to the preview.
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We lost the pub quiz by one point. I haven't quite recovered from it...
 
From the guardian.co.uk

David Pipe dropped strong hints on Thursday night that Grands Crus would run in the Cheltenham Gold Cup if Kauto Star were to miss the race through injury. The trainer was speaking at a Cheltenham Festival preview event at Wincanton racecourse where he shared the panel with Paul Nicholls, trainer of Kauto Star.

Grands Crus is a novice chaser and therefore expected to run against other novices in the RSA Chase for which he would start a hot favourite. But his connections have been mulling over a possible attempt on the Gold Cup for some time, with one of his owners being enthusiastic about the idea while Pipe has remained cool towards it.

Pipe is known for keeping his options open, as his father, Martin, was before him, and teased the audience with several noncomittal statements like: "Everything is very much up in the air at present". He said Grands Crus was likely to be left in both races at the five-day entry stage and a decision left until as late as possible.

But, when pressed by the chair, Alice Plunkett, Pipe gave a couple of broad hints that the Gold Cup would be the target if Nicholls' chaser were to miss it. "If Kauto Star goes out of the race, he's the second-favourite. What would you do?" he asked.

Pipe showed little fear of last year's Gold Cup winner, Long Run, suggesting he was "perhaps a little bit lazy now". Grands Crus' regular jockey, Tom Scudamore, rode a beaten horse in Long Run's recent prep race and was not impressed, apparently. Pipe reported that the rider was "confident" he could have won the race on Grands Crus.

The Grand National is the main aim for Pipe's Junior but the trainer said this horse might also attempt to profit from Kauto Star's absence en route to Aintree. "I've got to speak to his owners because they might want to go for the Gold Cup now," he said.

Nicholls showed a similar lack of fear of Long Run, saying; "I'm not convinced he's trained on this year. He had a lot of races in France when he was three and four years old. If Kauto Star doesn't run, it's quite an open Gold Cup."

The champion trainer suggested that Burton Port, second to Long Run at Newbury recently, could have won under a more vigorous ride and alluded to the fact that both are trained by Nicky Henderson. To rumbles of approval from the audience, he said: "If anyone else had trained Burton Port, he would have gone past Long Run".

Nicholls still hopes to run What A Friend and said he was a "massive" price for the Gold Cup at 40-1. Third behind Long Run and Burton Port, he "will improve enormously for the run. He's definitely got place chances".

There was good news from Nicholls about his Champion Hurdle favourite, Zarkandar, who is recovering from a recent bout of coughing. "He worked well yesterday [on Wednesday] and had an easy day today. He was mad fresh, I was really pleased with him."

Nicholls took issue with those who suggest Zarkandar might have been beaten by Darlan in his most recent race if that rival had not fallen at the second last. Calling Darlan "a bridle horse", he said: "Just because they travel well, it doesn't mean they win. Ruby [Walsh] was fairly adamant that he'd have won anyway. He must have been some horse to win and then start coughing." He said the cough did not mean the horse had been sick, just that he had suffered "an irritant".

Of his other Champion Hurdle runners, Nicholls said that Rock On Ruby had pleased him in a gallop at Wincanton 10 days ago but that Celestial Halo had "an enormous task". While positive about Brampour, he noted the horse had an alternative engagement in the County Hurdle.

Nicholls offered encouraging words about Big Bucks, the odds-on favourite for the World Hurdle. "He'll be a lot tighter than the last day he ran. Oscar Whisky is the one to beat and he's a very worthy and interesting opponent. He might stay but you've really got to be staying on from the last hurdle to the winning post and that's what seems to be Big Buck's' strength. He looks like he might be in trouble but he keeps on going. Touch wood, he seems in good shape."

Also on the panel was the jockey Joe Tizzard who is heavily involved with the Dorset stable of his father, Colin. He reported that Cue Card, the fourth favourite for the Arkle Challenge Trophy, had galloped around Wincanton on Tuesday with Oiseau De Nuit, who won at last year's Festival.

"He flew round," Tizzard said, "and he made Oiseau De Nuit look very, very moderate. I have to go into the race confident. I'm going to bounce him out, ride him confidently and we'll see if Sprinter Sacre [the favourite] does come up the hill."

"The only thing that worries me is that I might set the race up for Al Ferof," he said in reference to a horse Nicholls trains, who won last year's Supreme Novice Hurdle when Cue Card was fourth.

Several of those on the panel noted that Peddlers Cross, who had been second favourite for the Arkle, had drifted on Betfair for the race while shortening for the Jewson Novices Chase suggesting that connections may have decided to aim at the latter race.
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CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL PREVIEW at Bangor-On-Dee Racecourse
Sponsored by Sky Bet

Thursday, March 1st

After the success of the inaugural preview evening hosted by Bangor-on-Dee Racecourse last year, there was a good turnout again for its second airing with local trainer Donald McCain (DM) the star attraction on the panel which was chaired by Darren Owen. Commentator and broadcaster Stewart Machin (SM) and John Morris (JM), author of Jumping Prospects were also panellists as was Cheltenham Festival Betting Guide author Paul Jones. As the night primarily covered the Grade 1 races and Paul’s views on those were given after the Exeter preview, there is no need to repeat those but we will report on all his views again next week at the Knaresborough Preview where they run through all 27 races.

For the latest prices for each race please click on the Sky Bet banners.

SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE
DM: Agent Archie is possibly more of an Aintree type but if I didn’t have Cinders And Ashes I would be very happy for him to represent me in this race on his own as he has shown enough to warrant running. His owners want to run. Some have questioned Cinders And Ashes’ form but that is the trainer’s fault and not the horse’s. He can only go where I have sent him. I am expecting massive improvement for decent ground, he is twice the specimen of last year, a different horse altogether. Darlan has a huge chance if he has recovered from that bad fall. I’ll be amazed if he has as it looked horrible but they say so and there is no reason to doubt them.
SM: The heavy fall for Darlan would still concern me even if he has schooled well since. I spoke to Barry Geraghty for RacingUK and no definitive decision has been made yet on where Simonsig runs. Cinders And Ashes keeps winning despite desperate ground. He is my selection.
JM: Galileo’s Choice is a class act from the Flat and there isn’t much jumping from the top of the hill so I seriously respect his chance. Tetlami is the each-way bet, he has a big chance on ratings.

ARKLE TROPHY
DM: We are getting there with Peddlers Cross but he is not 100% yet. Plan A remains the Arkle until something tells us otherwise. The Jewson is a back-up plan at the moment. We have a couple of schools planned soon. He’ll be coming out of the Queen Mother, I don’t know I put him in it. I was shell shocked when Sprinter Sacre beat him. He clattered the first and was clearly not right for the rest of the race. I was interviewed by Nick Luck afterwards and wanted to sound like a good sport and then got calls from my friends and my wife telling me I was talking sh*t basically. They said he clearly wasn’t right and when I got home and watched it I saw what they meant and he subdued for a few days afterwards. It’s been going the right way since but it’s not perfect. With Sprinter Sacre I would say there is a massive difference between Doncaster and Kempton to Cheltenham but he might be the second coming.
SM: What’s value? Not Sprinter Sacre at 5/4 and Cue Card is a bit flaky. If Cue Card sets the gallop the Tizzards say he will then Al Ferof will love it and he strikes me as the best value.
JM: Sprinter Sacre jumped a bus every time on his chase debut at Doncaster but shortened up when he needed to on his next start. Not really a great race to have a bet in but I hope Peddlers Cross comes out on top.

CHAMPION HURDLE
DM: Overturn is in great nick. He galloped here yesterday and the lady who I watched him work with never swears but she did on this occasion. He’s bouncing. He beat Binocular easily in the Fighting Fifth and I thought the Wincanton race he won last time wasn’t up to much. He was a bit flat when second to Grandouet and then we just got greedy running him at Kempton where he never jumped a hurdle. Hurricane Fly beat my best horse last year but nothing is unbeatable.
SM: Why won’t Hurricane Fly not win? There is no Peddlers Cross this year. He is far more relaxed according to Mullins and Walsh so why shouldn’t he win? Zarkandar is short enough. Rock On Ruby could be each-way value. You have to think how many think they can beat Hurricane Fly and how many will be ridden to obtain the best possible placing behind him. Rock On Ruby could fit the latter.
JM: Oscars Well cost me a fortune with his last flight mistake in the Neptune last year and I would nominate him and Oscars Well as the each-way value. Binocular proved himself again at Wincanton and if he is spot on I would respect him.



NEPTUNE INVESTMENTS MANAGEMENT NOVICES’ HURDLE
DM: I’d run Simonsig in this, I don’t think he has the gears for a Supreme. I’d also run Boston Bob here for the fact that I would like to run my best staying novice in this race rather than the Albert Bartlett.
SM: Monksland is a big player on decent ground and had his form franked earlier today by Lyreen Legend. Noel Meade has won this race before and he promises to be even better when getting decent ground which he has yet to encounter in Ireland. Sous Les Cieux is half-interesting up in trip.
JM: I rate Boston Bob very highly but we don’t know where he runs yet. Monksland is my each-way fancy, he is improving all the time and will love the likely better ground.

RSA CHASE
DM: I’d always keep a novice to novice races in cases like this so I would run Grands Crus here. If everything goes smoothly then he should win. I see Join Together is officially rated higher though.
SM: I didn’t think Grands Crus jumped that great at Cheltenham if I am honest and he got in a bit tight to a few so I don’t fancy taking 6/4. I’m struggling to see why Invictus is twice the price of Bobs Worth. I’m worried Bobs Worth could get taken out of his comfort zone and he is not the biggest either. Invictus for me.
JM: I have a good feeling for First Lieutenant. We know he comes up the hill having won here last time and I don’t think he has been fully wound up in his races so far on ground that wouldn’t have been suiting him.

QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE
DM: I’m a bit luke warm about this race to be honest. I see no reason why Big Zeb should turn last year’s form around with Sizing Europe and there doesn’t appear to be much else.
SM: I interviewed Geraghty for RacingUK and of all his big rides his body language was the most negative for Finian’s Rainbow and he commented that he had not come up to expectations this season. No reason why Big Zeb should reverse with Sizing Europe. I can see Kauto Stone running well. He didn’t settle last time and was only beaten 7 lengths by Sizing Europe on his previous run so he is of interest in a without Sizing Europe market.
JM: Finian’s Rainbow is a bit of value for me as is Wishfull Thinking as Big Zeb is getting a bit long in the tooth. Sizing Europe was never going to be a three-miler. He is a good two-mile chaser but I am not sure he is a brilliant two-mile chaser.



RYANAIR CHASE
DM: No strong view. Somersby has finally won a big one and he could easily now win another.
SM: I think Somersby is a horse that needs things to drop right for him. Albertas Run is too old and I don’t think Cheltenham suits Riverside Theatre and I am also sceptical about whether his Ascot win was as good as many think. On good ground I think Noble Prince is exceptional and he has not had his ground all season so he is the one for me.
JM: I like Roth Dubh each-way who was staying on when third in the Arkle. 25/1 is too big. Jonjo’s are flying so I respect Albertas Run but I am not convinced racing left-handed suits Riverside Theatre.

WORLD HURDLE
DM: I wasn’t convinced Big Buck’s was as great as everyone was saying until I was down by the last at Aintree last season and I am now one of his biggest fans. It was a monstrous performance that day. He will probably win but I do think that Oscar Whisky will give him the fright of his life and think he is the best horse he will have faced.
SM: The best way to beat Big Buck’s might be to sit a length off him and then kick as soon as he hits a flat spot. There is some interest to be had in the without Big Buck’s market. I fancy they could ride Dynaste differently this time and hold onto him this time. I am not sure Oscar Whisky is in the right race.
JM: Will Oscar Whisky stay 3m? I can’t see past Big Buck’s. Ruby is aware of that the flat spot is coming and is ready for it. It’s great for racing if he can win it again. Mikael D’Haguenet each-way for me.



TRIUMPH HURDLE
DM: Hollow Tree is a fantastic little horse that has already won a Grade 1. His early season form shouldn’t be knocked and the race in which he was third to Grumeti giving him weight but not Pearl Swan is the best piece of 4yo hurdle form this season. I would look no further than that form. He would have been closer too had Jason not lost his whip.
SM: I quite like Sadler’s Risk and didn’t think he was knocked about behind Baby Mix. I really can’t have Baby Mix. There is something quirky about him and he got a great ride at Kempton. The stiffer track will also suit Sadler’s Risk and I think he will reverse form.
JM: Darroun could be well backed and is the each-way selection. His Leopardstown win is working out well. I do like ex Aga Khan horses. Grumeti looks best of the British and reminds me of Katchit given his toughness.

ALBERT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE
DM: I’ve been taking on Brindisi Breeze with no luck this season. All I would say is that ground at Haydock was really bad so beware the form. I had two heavy ground horses run that day and even they couldn’t handle it. Speaking with Gordon Elliott last week he told me that Mount Benbulben was his best chance at Cheltenham.
SM: Brindisi Breeze has only run on soft so that would worry me and I don’t think he would be left alone up front at Cheltenham either. I like Rocky Creek as there is plenty more to come and he looks a stout stayer.
JM: Boston Bob if the obvious one if he runs here but Lovcen is expected to run well and is each-way value at 20/1. He won a Wincanton handicap very well last time.

GOLD CUP
DM: Weird Al is very well. In fact, when I got him out for a Grand National media day I thought he looked too well. At Haydock when we were third, Kauto Star was fit to run for his life and we were only 2 lengths behind Long Run but I don’t know how much he needed it. Timmy Murphy was adamant afterwards he was not quite the same horse that won the Charlie Hall and down the back straight said he would have gladly taken third there and then. The ground was not as he would have liked that day but he goes best fresh and it came too soon after Wetherby. The owners want one good crack at the Gold Cup so we decided soon after to go straight to the Gold Cup fresh. If he gets there in form he will run a big race and it is starting to look like he might get his ground. I think Burton Port should have beaten Long Run at Newbury and he is a belting good little horse.
SM: We’re in the dark regards Kauto Star following his schooling fall but even if he makes it then it has to be a worry he will be at his best. Long Run is too short and strikes me as vulnerable. I’m not sure which way Burton Port will go after his Newbury return following 16 months off. What A Friend is interesting each-way given his running style.
JM: I’m interested in Synchronised who annihilated a good field on ground thought to be dead against him in Ireland. He is a fragile sort though and has had problems since. If he runs, a forgotten horse could be Time For Rupert but the Kauto Star news has thrown me a bit and I really need a rethink. Burton Port each-way at this stage.



SHOULDER RACES
DM: Charminster will run in the novice handicap chase. He got the fright of his life when running here last time after the likes of Sedgefield and Musselburgh but that has sharpened him up. Bourne goes for the Martin Pipe and the right horses were placed behind him at Ascot last time. Kie runs in the Fred Winter but I’m not sure that Lexi’s Boy will get in now the handicapper has dropped him 5lbs on collateral form which would be annoying. It looks like Tara Royal will have 10st 3lbs in the Grand Annual which is ideal. Richard Harding will ride Cloudy Lane in the Foxhunters’ and he has a right good chance.

NAPS
DM: Cloudy Lane (Foxhunters’)
SM: Noble Prince (Ryanair)
JM: Boston Bon (selected novice hurdle)
 
CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL PREVIEW courtesy of the LONDON RACING CLUB, Kensington Forum Hotel
Sponsored by Sky Bet

Thursday, 1st March

The evening was once again chaired by Barry Faulkner who was joined on the panel by Charlie Morlock (Assistant Trainer to Nicky Henderson), Phil Smith(Head of Handicapping), Lee Mottershead (Racing Post Journalist), George Primarolo (Betfred) and the last minute replacement for the injured Mark Johnson, Declan Rix (Irish expert – Attheraces). A very balanced panel were able to attack each race from a variety of angles which made for an interesting evening which commenced with the Championship races, followed by the top Novice Hurdle and Chase contests, before finishing with a round-up of the remaining races.

CM – Charlie Morlock
PS – Phil Smith
LM – Lee Mottershead
GP – George Primarolo
DR – Declan Rix

CHAMPION HURDLE
PS: You need a 170+ rated performance to win, so the most likely horse to achieve that is Hurricane Fly but I would definitely look outside the first one in the betting. Binocular achieved his second highest career rating when winning the Kingwell Hurdle at Wincanton and Zarkandar achieved a mark of (160) in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, but he is going in the right direction and he is bound to come on for the run and will appreciate the fast pace.
CM: Binocular thrives on his racing and it was a blessing in disuse when Grandouet was ruled out at Wincanton. We never seriously considered running him until the day before. AP always says a run sharpens him up and he wasn’t fully prepared for his last run as he was 2lb above his usual racing weight. He will come on for that run and will have one good piece of work before the Festival. The wind-op has done him the world of good and AP said he hasn’t had this type of feel from the horse for a long time. Hurricane Fly however still remains the one to beat.
LM: I think Hurricane Fly will win the race, but there is no value at 4/6. Binocular is the value bet at 5/1 and he’ll go off a lot shorter on the day.
DR: Nothing can beat Hurricane Fly, he came back to life last time out, he’s still only eight and is physically at his peak. The each-way bet for me has to a Thousand Stars at 25/1; this is a silly price as he was 4th in the race last year.
GP: There is absolutely no value in Hurricane Fly – He is still a bit fragile and there are always question marks about his well-being. My each-way bet has to be Rock on Ruby at 14/1 as he loves Cheltenham and stays up the hill. Peddlers Cross is also interesting at 25/1 NR NO BET, if he doesn’t turn up you get your money back, if he does he will be nowhere near that price on the day.
*GM then offered any takers in the room Evens about Hurricane Fly.



CHAMPION CHASE
DR: It’s hard to look past Sizing Europe as he will appreciate the forecast good ground and acts on the track making him the one to beat. Big Zeb is a cracking each-way bet to nothing as he will also prefer the better going.
CM: We weren’t happy with Finian’s Rainbow earlier in the year and he was a little disappointing but he looks better now than when he went to Ascot. Sizing Europe is a great horse and the one to beat and for me our horse shouts Liverpool at me.
LM: Sizing Europe is a very solid hot favourite but I’m not keen at backing him at evens. The bet for me is Kauto Stone NR NO BET at 33/1 – he ran like a lunatic at Ascot and it was no surprise to see him fall in a hole and connections are contemplating a step back in trip.
PS: Of the four champions of last year Sizing Europe is the most bomb proof. I can’t see anything better in this year’s race from last year and he’s 11lb ahead of the next best in the ratings, so it surprises me that he’s not odds on. I agree with Lee that Kauto Stone represents good value at 33/1 NR NO BET.
GP: Sizing Europe has to win, there is absolutely nothing in the race and the evens is good value.



WORLD HURDLE
CM: The idea was to test the speed of Big Bucks before we got to Cheltenham but the owner chose not to. I can’t see him getting past Big Bucks as I don’t think he will outstay him. It’s been a weak division dominated by Big Bucks and I wouldn’t be backing Oscar Whiskey. The plan is to drop him in and try and do Big Bucks for toe, he’s very relaxed in his races so this won’t be a problem.
PS: We don’t know if Big Bucks is as good as he has been before because he simply hasn’t been tested, so we are unsure where he is at. Dynaste at 14/1 is the each-way bet in the race as he’s the only horse to have gotten near to Big Buck’s this season.
GP: It’s not a betting race so put your feet up, watch the race and enjoy it, Big Bucks will win.
LM: For just a few strides at both at Ascot and Cheltenham this season Ruby has begun to get anxious but he stays better than any other horse. Oscar Whiskey and Thousand Stars are the opposition as they have the speed to beat him but will they stay? Out of the two I think Thousand Stars will as he always finishes his races well and could cause an upset at 10/1 NR NO BET.
DR: Big Buck’s is the best horse in training for me but I’m going for Mourad. He’s been there and done it by placing in the race and was back to his best in beating Mikael D’Haguenet last time out.



GOLD CUP
LM: The statement released by Paul Nicholls was very negative and it sounds likely that he won’t run. Long Run is now the one to beat, he’s lacked the WOW factor this year but he didn’t jump at Haydock, laboured at Kempton, before travelling better at Newbury without overly impressing. Burton Port has come back a completely different horse but all the value has now gone and Synchronised could be interesting if it rains.
CM: We were really excited about Burton Port before his run in the Denman Chase, but we didn’t want to give him a tough race after such as long lay-off. He came back and seemed a lot faster and his work was exceptional but I wouldn’t be confident he could replicate this again so soon. We can’t put our finger on why Long Run hasn’t been as spectacular this year, however he was probably dossing in front at Newbury, his work has been good but not sparkling but he is still the one to beat for me.
GP: Diamond Harry’s had a wind-op and although he never seems to find anything he travels so well in his races, so if the operation has worked 33/1 could be great each-way value.
PS: Long Run was idling in front at Newbury and it was an ideal prep run. He improved 3lb from his prep run last year and I expect him to do the same again this year, which will make him the horse to beat. Midnight Chase has won round Cheltenham and I fancy him to make the places.



SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE
LM: Prospect Wells looks very interesting, he has shown loads of speed and he shouldn’t have run in the Tolworth and the race wasn’t run to suit in the Ladbroke. He is crying out for a stiff 2m test on good ground and shouldn’t be 25/1.
CM: I’m not sure Simonsig will go for this race, there’s a big chance he will go for the Neptune. AP was very complimentary about Darlan after he fell at Newbury. He has schooled well since then and is in great form. He has experience in large fields and in races run at a true gallop, AP also says he will take all the beating. Don’t ignore Tetlami who is a very good horse and deserves his place but if I had to choose I would side with Darlan. I also like Donald McCain’s horse Cinders and Ashes – he’s a very tough horse.
DR: Midnight Game is the pick of the Irish runners for me – He is a son of Montjeu and I know Willie Mullins is very sweet on him and he will love good ground. I also like Tetlami who has won at the track and jumps well and there is plenty of value at 16/1.
PS: I also like Tetlami as he has won his previous race and his form is rock solid. The 2nd and 3rd horses in the race he won at Sandown both won next time out and the 2nd horse in the race he won at Kempton also won next time.

NEPTUNE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT NOVICES’ HURDLE
GP: This isn’t a race for big prices with the winner normally coming from the first four in the betting. I like Boston Bob but it will be between him and Simonsig.
DR: Aupcharlie is interesting in this race, he was 3rd behind Cheltenian in last year’s bumper and he’s 50/1 and trust me he won’t be 50/1 if he lines up here.
CM: It is likely Simonsig will go for this race, although that isn’t gospel. He’s got bigger and stronger all year; he’s very pacy but stays really well. He emptied slightly up the run-in at Sandown but he was found not to be himself afterwards but we gave him a break a freshened him up before Kelso. I do also like Sous Les Cieux and I would rather back him at 12/1 than Simonsig at 3/1.

TRIUMPH HURDLE
LM: Saddler’s Risk is the one for me despite his defeat at Newbury. I know the Hobbs team are really keen on him and I think the stamina test provided on the new course at Cheltenham will suit him much better and 10/1 looks good value.
PS: Baby Mix is the top rated here but he looks more of an Aintree horse. Ranjaan interests me as he has been running in competitive handicaps, his form has been franked by Third Intention (Won the National Spirit Hurdle) and he is a horse going in the right direction.

ALBERTT BARTLETT NOVICES’ HURDLE
DR: Charles Byrne really like Sea of Thunder and trust me there is no shrewder man than him.
GP/PS: If Boston Bob turns up he wins.
CM: We don’t have anything that slow.

ARKLE
CM: Sprinter Sacre is an absolute monster of a horse. He was a weak sort this time last year but now he’s strengthened up I can’t see anything beating him. Ignore people who say he won’t come up the hill, he is a very special horse and he will hopefully be around for many years as he is the ultimate 2m chaser.
LM: Sprinter Sacre looks something out of the ordinary and I’d be disappointed not surprised if he didn’t win.
PS: Even if Peddlers Cross turns up here he has no chance of winning, his 2m chase form doesn’t read well at all. Al Ferof has very solid form running against older horses when 3rd in the Victor Chandler, but I still think Sprinter Sacre will win and we rate him 9lb superior to both Al Ferof and Peddlers Cross.
DR: Sprinter Sacre is a serious, serious horse and he definitely come up the hill and should win. I will however be having a decent each-way to nothing bet on Al Ferof.

RSA CHASE
PS: Grands Crus is the most likely winner but why haven’t we seen him in this calendar year? My alternative is Invictus who has really good form and the further he goes the better. He stays really well and he is certain to get home.
CM: Bobs Worth comes alive at Cheltenham and he’s come on for his last run and he can run a very big race. I also really like Invictus – he has the pace and the gears but also stays real well. I still think Grands Crus is the one to beat but Bobs Worth can serve it up to him.
LM: Bobs Worth is fantastic around Cheltenham and is 3-3 at the course. Even if Grands Crus does run I’d still be tempted to go with Bobs Worth.

NATIONAL HUNT CHALLENGE CUP
PS: Up the Beat interests me as he was second to Portrait King who went on to win the Eider chase last weekend. He was giving that horse 17lb that day and he is absolutely going to win some nice races in the future.

RYANAIR CHASE
LM: Rubi Light is the one for me, he was 3rd in the race last year but looked really raw and what I have seen of him this year he looks like he will be a better horse, however a bit of rain wouldn’t go a miss.
DR: Rubi Light is the most talented horse in the race but the quick ground would worry me so my selection is Forpadydeplaster who is a massive price at 40/1.
GP: Noble Prince has been campaigned for this race and I am expecting a big run. Also don’t rule out Medermit, however he could run in the Gold Cup.

CORAL CUP
DR: My best bet is Dare Me trained by Philip Hobbs as he is looks very well handicapped. He ran well in the bumper here behind Cue Card and was then fancied for the Supreme but missed that through injury. He is a class horse and off 10st 4lb 25/1 is a massive price.

CENTENARY NOVICES CHASE
CM: Nicky was asked the other night which horse he thought was his best chance of a winner and he named Triolo D A Lene. He steps up in trip to 3m and will love the good ground and we have deliberately not run him and 7/1 looks a good price.

FOXHUNTER CHASE
GP: The Point-to-Point crew are very keen on My Flora and Monkerty Tunkerty. Chapoturgeon will not stay up the hill.
DR: Donald McCain says his best chance of a winner is Cloudy Lane.

CHAMPION BUMPER
GP: I was very impressed with John Ferguson’s New Year’s Eve at Market Rasen last time and I think he will run a big race.
DR: Moscow Manion is the best Irish trained representative in the race.
 
Love reading these, though I take all comments with a pinch of salt - unless they're bigging-up one I've backed ante-post, in which case, they're thorough good-eggs, top judges and above the mewling herd.

Anyway, that's not my point, which is as follows;

Why does Phil Smith use the phrase "It takes a 170+ performance to win this race", when the phrase "F*ck you, pal - I'm awarding 170+ regardless" will do perfectly well instead?

In a way, he's right - we will see a 170+ performance - from Hurricane Fly - but that doesn't stop him being a gigantic tit.:cool:
 
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From Betfair.....

Woodlands hotel Waterford
Panel: John Francome, Mike Cattermole, Jim McGrath , Jessica Harrington, Henry de Bromhead, Davy Russell, Noel OBrien ,Tom Segal, Hayley OConnor,
MC Brian Gleeson

Absent Nick Luck & Ted Walsh who didnt make it due to Josh Giffords memorial service

A good humoured and entertaining evening in front of a packed house. As usual Francome and Russell were the star performers.

In summary here's what I scratched down fwiw

Supreme NH
JF: Tetlami
JH: Confident of Steps of freedoms chances
TS: Midnight game
DR: Trifolium "Best novice in Ireland "
HDB: Prospect Wells ew
MC: Cinders and Ashes
JM: Gallileo's choice

Arkle
JF: Sprinter Sacre
JH: Sprinter Sacre"Machine"
TS: Sprinter Sacre/Menorah ew
DR: Sprinter Sacre"Unbeatable " Bog warrior wont travel unless soft ground
HDB: Al Ferof
MC: Sprinter Sacre
JM: Sprinter Sacre

Champion Hdle
JF: Binocular
JH: Hurricane Fly/ Oscars Well ew
TS: Hurricane Fly
DR: Hurricane Fly
HDB: Hurricane Fly
MC: Hurricane Fly/ Overturn ew
NOB: Hurricane Fly
JM: Hurricane Fly

Neptune
HDB: Monksland
TS: Battonier/Boston bob if he runs
DR: "Boston Bob wont run and if he does wont win this. Make your mark not good enough. Mount Benbulben will win if he runs in this"
NOB: Boston bob

RSA
DR: First Lieutenant/Sir de Champs
JM: Grand crus/First Lieutenant
TS: Grand cru's will go for gold- First Lieutenant/Bobsworth

Queen Mother:
Entire Panel went for Sizing Europe. Tom Segal rates him a 1/3 shot
HDB reported all is well with horse

Bumper
TS: Village vic
DR: Will be an english trained winner, likes Royal Guardsman
JM: New years eve
JH: Jetski if all goes well when it runs this weekend

Ryanair:
JF: Albertas run
JH: Rudi Light/Albertas run
TS: Medermit if runs/Noble Prince
DR: Noble Prince
HOC: Noble Prince
MC: Rudi Light/Noble Prince
JM: Noble Prince

b]World Hurdle:[/b]
JF: Big bucks/ Mourad w/o
JH: Voler la vedette w/o
TS:Big bucks/ Carlito Brigante w/o
DR: Big bucks/ Thousand stars w/o
NOB: "Big bucks might be beaten"
MC: Oscar Whiskey
JM: Big bucks

Triumph Hdle:
TS &JM: Shadow Catcher
rest of panel thought race is wide open

Albert B
JF: Rocky Creek/Brindisi Breeze
JM: Rocky creek
DR: Brindisi breeze
JH: Sea of thunder
NOB: Ballyrock
TS: Mount benbulben

Gold Cup
JF, JM, NOB & MC - Long Run
DR& TS - Midnight Chase
HOC-Burton Port

Handicaps
JM-
Prospect wells County hdle,
Quantitative easing-NHunt chase,
Cape Dutch Coral cup

JH-
Citizenship County or Martin Pipe id it doesnt get in county

TS-
Citizenship County
Sonovic-Pertemps

MC-
Bless the wings- Novice h/cap or Byrne group
Vendor- Fred W
Snap tie-county hdle

NOB- Scotsirish cross country- Davy says it wont stay 3m7f in a horse box

DR: Toner Doudaries Coral cup, Magnaminity ??, Going Wrong novice h/cap

JF: Tenor Nivernais ??, All the Kings horses ??

Charity bets
MC 50ew Snap Tie
JF 100w Sizing Europe
TS 100w Sizing Europe
DR 100w Noble Prince
JM 50w Each Shadow Catcher & Quantitative Easing
HOC 50ew Zarkander
JH 50ew Steps of freedom
NOB 100w Sizing Europe
BG 100double Sprinter Sacre/Sizing Europe


Other Notes:
David Pipe was also on telephone
No decision yet on Grand Cru
Gave Salut Flo and Our Father as his best chances in handicaps. Race plans not finalised yet
 
Coral Cheltenham Preview Night – Haydock
Posted March 2, 2012

As a bumper panel lined-up and the loitering audience hang around the bar, a call for all to be seated for dinner rings around the impressive set-up, showcased by the stage and number of big screens playing Cheltenham festival memories. A failed original call brings another, but after 3 strikes, the message has got across and dinner was served.

A delayed start. No worries as this was a preview night to savour. A panel that included ATR presenter Matt Chapman, top jockeys Richard Johnson and Jason Maguire; retired riding legend Mick Fitzgerald, RUK presenter Niall Hannity and Coral PR man Simon Clare.

The Starter comes and goes, Tomato Soup and a Cheese Stick. However Roast Pork cutlet is our main and what a delicious one it is. Anyway that is enough about the food as the panel emerge mid-way through main. And what a start as Nicky Henderson is straight on a live link from Seven Barrows (Click Here for Views). A long and fascinating discussion about most of his best chances going lasts at least until the dessert of a Chocolate and Toffee Tart. But with the food gone, it was time to get into the nitty-gritty and for the panel to do what they do best.

Tuesday
Supreme Novices’ Hurdle

Tuesday’s discussion started with the Festival showcase, The Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. It’s the start of the split opinion as Jason Maguire obviously chooses his mount Cinders And Ashes. Meanwhile Simon Clare is keen on Colour Squadron, Niall Hannity on the Willie Mullins trained Sous Les Cieux and Fitzgerald all over Simonsig, wherever he turns up.

Arkle Chase


Mick Fitzgerald feels that he has never seen Nicky Henderson more excited about a horse than Sprinter Sacre
Arkle discussions start and after Matt Chapman says that Richard Johnson will have to take out extra medical insurance before riding Menorah. Johnson replies confidently: “He’s one of the best rides of the week for me. He will love Cheltenham and a fast run race and has schooled well since Donny where Tom O’Brien said he was just lifeless”. Hannity and Simon Clare differ on Sprinter Sacre, the latter stating the Henderson hotpot is his banker of the meeting and the former saying it would be made to back him at the price, which Chapman agrees with: “You can’t back a novice at evens for the Arkle, surely?” Maguire doesn’t mention any Jewson plans for Peddlers Cross and generally doesn’t tell us much more than we know already on him. Al Ferof, although thought of as decent, is thought likely to be outpaced in which he won’t be able to recover from.

Champion Hurdle

Hurricane Fly is given a rave reviews by the majority of the panel for the Champion Hurdle however the other correlation is a liking for Maguire’s mount Overturn who was agreed by all to be the best priced e/w horse in the field. Binocular is doubted by Chapman but is praised by all jockeys after really good reports from Henderson while Zarkandar isn’t mentioned that much. Most agree that it isn’t the strongest of renewals but is still fascinating.

Wednesday
RSA Chase

After the panel all agreed that Quevega is unbeatable in the Mares Hurdle, talks of Wednesday begin with the RSA Chase soon after some fantastic banter between Chapman and Fitzgerald, the latter saying that Join Together will win: “the winner always stays further and he definitely does”. Johnson believes Bobs Worth and Join Together have the best chances of winning while Maguire goes for First Lieutenant, who Davy Russell rates highly. A stat is brought up that all RSA winners run their race before around a month ago, putting off a few of the panel on Grand Crus although the decision to go Gold Cup or RSA with him is split.

Neptune Novices’ Hurdle


Willie Mullins feels that Boston Bob is his one of best chances of a Cheltenham winner
Johnson believes Simonsig is the one, especially on good ground and if taking his chance, with Fitzgerald already stating that he would be backing Simonsig wherever he turned up. Although the injury to Fingal Bay, who had shown the best form on show so far, is a big loss for the jockey and the yard. Willie Mullins can’t see Boston Bob getting beat, a report heard by many, while Simon Clare feels Monksland is the one.

Champion Chase

A discussion on the Champion Chase sees the unoriginal and unanimous choice of Sizing Europe although a discussion of Finians Rainbow brought on a comment by Michael Buckley to Chapman. “Apparently last year Finians was always looking at Mares but this year he now just looks at geldings which means he must be gay now”. Fitzgerald instantly says it must be a wind-up and we move on.Johnson doesn’t eek much confidence in Wishfull Thinking

Champion Bumper

We leave the handicaps well alone, notably and ironically the Coral Cup being one of those races to be snubbed. However a small discussion on the bumper sees a few strong opinions. Hannity is very keen on Moscow Mannon while Chapman likes the look of Pique Sous. Closer to home, Johnson gives a decent report on Village Vic, his likely mount for the race.

Thursday
Ryanair Chase

Day 3 starts with the Ryanair which ends up with a large array of opinions and in depth discussion. Maguire firstly chooses the David Pipe’s Great Endeavour. Simon Clare feels Noble Prince will like the ground and should go close. Meanwhile Chapman feels the bookies have the market all wrong and is strongly against both the main Irish contenders, while also agreeing with Johnson’s view that Somersby is the one to beat: “It’s the best form I’ve ever seen him in”. Hannity is also keen on Somersby while also giving a good word for Riverside Theatre. Interestingly though Fitzgerald is not so keen on the Henderson horse: “He is best fresh and he isn’t going to be fresh at Cheltenham”.


Not many can see past Big Bucks for the World Hurdle
World Hurdle

Big Bucks rightly dominates the discussion in the World Hurdle although Fitzgerald doesn’t rule out Oscar Whisky: “He will (Big Bucks) be beaten one day and Oscar Whisky could be the one to do it”. Johnson feels Oscar Whisky is the only one who could possibly beat him although a good word is made for Dynaste to finish 2nd to him again.

The Handicaps

The handicaps come into discussion a little this time, although not much and after Niall Hannity gives a good word for Module in the Coral Cup (yes the only mention of the feature race). Interestingly Chapman mentions that Paul Nicholls feels Sonofvic is his best handicapped horse of the festival and is being aimed for the Pertemps. Vendor meanwhile for Alan King has reportedly got a stone in hand for the Fred Winter, similar to reports that he is just as good as the yards juvenile stars Grumeti and Balder Succes

Friday
Triumph Hurdle

Fitzgerald believes it’s a very good chance the race goes to Alan King of which Clare replies with a price of 7/2 of that happening and a call to open a Coral account. “Fitzy’s stopped betting since he’s retired” remarks Chapman, queuing one of the highlights of the night. A stuttering Johnson can’t decide whether Choc Thornton knows which of Balder Succes or Grumeti to ride although a shout out from an audience member about Wayne Hutchinson being a better jockey is dealt with by Chapman: “That’s your opinion but I do rate him as a jockey and you wouldn’t be worried which one each of them rode”.

Hannity goes for a Shadow Catcher at a slightly bigger price while Clare feels Baby Mix is the one and will confirm his rating as the best juvenile this season. My selection Pearl Swan is not given much of a mention at all bar Johnson feeling he is closely matched with Grumeti. However Johnson is very keen on his own mount Sadler’s Risk and feels he should go very well at a track and test that will really suit, while also, like Fitzgerald, shown their fondness for how well Balder Succes has won his first two starts in the UK. Maguire also sparks confidence on his mount Hollow Tree: “He’s a consistent type who should have an e/w shout”.

Gold Cup

It’s the big one and much time is spent discussing whether Kauto Star would run and if yes, win. Fitzgerald reports that Ruby wanted to make it less of a stamina test while also stating that they went too quick last year and Long Run’s stamina was what got him home. However Fitzgerald feels that Long Run has looked laboured this year although completely discounts the chances of Burton Port beating him after going close to doing just that last time at Newbury, also insisting that Geraghty did not give him an easy time. “Long run was just pulling out more and more and he would have won even if they ran on to Basingstoke”. Fitzgerald feels Synchronised and Midnight Chase are the best options from a betting perspective. Hannity disagrees with Synchronised though and doesn’t rate his chances at all.


Despite not yet being a certainty to run, Richard Johnson gave a strong update on Captain Chris for the Gold Cup
Johnson reports on Captain Chris who he will ride if he turns up. “He wasn’t right in the King George and didn’t give me a good feel. He had muscle problems behind in the Argento which caused him to jump left alarmingly. He schools this week and that will decide whether he ends up at Cheltenham although I know he can run very well and if he jumps the first few fences well then have all the money you want on him e/w”.

On the subject of Grand Crus and whether he should turn up, Fitzgerald feels that the memory of Gloria Victis will play on connections minds although many agree that if Kauto doesn’t run, he should go. Weird Al is Jason Maguire’s ride and the report is normal rather than eyecatching while Chapman ends the debate with his view that Grand Crus will struggle to stay and that’s he’s all over Long Run. The question of Kauto v Long Run in a match race, not taking into account Kauto’s participation doubt, sees all bar Johnson go for Long Run.

Naps
Niall Hannity

After a word with Nicholls, Hannity feels that TED SPREAD (12/1 County Hurdle) has a fantastic chance of doing the Imperial Cup/County Hurdle double. “The horse is very well handicapped and should go very close if ending up in the County too”.

Simon Clare

CHAMPION COURT (10/1 Jewson) is Simon’s nap. The Martin Keighley gelding won a good race at Cheltenham last time. “He’s a proper chaser and because he doesn’t stay 3 miles, the trip is perfect. He likes Cheltenham and is a good e/w shot”.

Mick Fitzgerald

Rather unsurprisingly, Fitzy bases his around Henderson’s yard and goes for SIMONSIG (7/2 Neptune) in “whatever race he turns up in”. Meanwhile TRIOLO D’ALENE (7/1 Novices’ Handicap Chase) gets another good mention: “I was him in the yard last week and he looked stunning”.

Jason Maguire

HOLLOW TREE and OVERTURN (33/1 Champion Hurdle) e/w are the two naps for Maguire, amidst a few question marks of what a nap really is. Both though seem to look overpriced.

Matt Chapman

Chapman comes up with one he hasn’t mentioned before with ROCKY CREEK (8/1 Albert Bartlett). The Paul Nicholls horse is very highly rated by the ATR presenter who feels he could be a machine.

Richard Johnson

Again Dickie comes up with one not mentioned yet and it’s BALTHAZAR KING (14/1 X-Country Chase). “He runs well fresh and I feel we would have won if we hadn’t had been brought down last time at Cheltenham”. Johnson also confirmed that he would take the ride.
 
Nicky Henderson has sympathised with connections of Kauto Star amidst news of the 2-time Cheltenham Gold Cup winner only being 50-50 to run this year after a “bad schooling fall” last week.

Speaking at the Coral Cheltenham Preview night from Haydock Racecourse, Henderson said: ” I feel for connections and all involved. It was building up to be a great Gold Cup and this was the last thing we wanted to happen”.

However the Seven Barrows Master felt the news meant the possibility of Long Run defending his crown would be more likely: “It won’t be the same without Kauto although it will definitely make Long Run’s task a little easier”.

Talking to his former retained jockey Mick Fitzgerald, Henderson was upbeat but cautious about a number of his other chances, including Arkle favourite Sprinter Sacre.

“He scares me to death what he can do” said Henderson. “He knows he’s a bit special at home and on the course but Cheltenham is a different course to what he has faced. He did run out of energy in the Supreme last year but is much stronger now and he should get up the hill. The things he does at home are frightening”.

A decision has not yet been made on where novice hurdler Simonsig will be seen. ” I don’t even know myself yet” said the trainer. “He’s just got to go for the race that suits him best, although Barry (Geraghty) is keen on running in the Neptune”,

Both Tetlami and the JP Mcmanus owned Darlan were confirmed to still be on target for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and both to be in good form and have solid chances on the day.

Mcmanus’ star hurdler Binocular was also confirmed to be on track in a bid for a 2nd Champion Hurdle. “AP (McCoy) got off him in the Christmas Hurdle and said he wasn’t right. He had a small wind-op and looked a better horse at Wincanton. I’m not sure if he beat much as Celestial Halo may not have been on top form but it was the manner in which he did it that impressed me”, remarked Henderon.


Henderson feels Triolo D'Alene (Right) should go well at the Festival
However the handler admitted that Binocular and Oscar Whisky would both have tough tasks in beating solid favourites Hurricane Fly and Big Bucks. “Both should run their races. Binocular is very good but he has Hurricane Fly in the way and the same goes to Oscar Whisky who has Big Bucks in the way. But both are fine and going well”.

Raised the question of his best chance of a winner, the Lambourn trainer spoke highly of handicapper Triolo D’Alene who is likely to go for the Centenary Novices’ Handicap Chase on the opening day, while also giving a good word for Sprinter Sacre and Bobs Worth.

“Sprinter Sacre is our best chance in terms of the market and he is extremely good. Bobs Worth is coming into his own and I was very pleased with his run last time at Ascot when he wasn’t right. But the one I am quite keen on is Triolo D’Alene who is a lovely chaser”.
 
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