West Midlands Racing Club Preview Night
A very familiar panel for the West Midlands Racing Club was hosted by author Chris Pitt (CP). He was joined by Racing UK presenters Lydia Hislop (LH) & Stewart Machin (SM1), journalist and tipster Sam Turner (ST) as well as the face of Betfair Tony Calvin (TC). The extremely knowledgeable panel was completed by Steve Melish (SM1), a regular guest on Racing UK. A packed room was accompanied by a brilliant atmosphere ahead of a great night of Cheltenham previewing.
Supreme Novices
LH: I’m against Darlan; he appears to be to be a flat track horse. His worst performance came at Cheltenham, he will travel well but when it comes to it I doubt he will find a great deal. It’s a very open race though; both Galileo’s Choice and Midnight Game are interesting contenders and appear to be overpriced. Steps to Freedom will like the ground and Cinders And Ashes looks a very solid horse. The most overpriced horse in the race has to be Molotof, who looks like he’s been overlooked. It’s a very tough race to call but for me I would have to go with Galileo’s Choice and Midnight Game.
SM2: Montbazon is a very progressive horse, and he really impressed me with his win at Newbury. You need a low 150s or a high 140s type to win this so something will have to improve to win and I feel that Montbazon is the one to do this.
SM1: I am also against Darlan; the second-last flight at Newbury is still a very long way away from the line so nobody knows if he would have won or not. I think Galileo’s Choice is a very intriguing contender but Cinders And Ashes is the one for me. He was weak at four and ran a great race in the Bumper and he has improved a lot since then. He will revel in the better ground and I just feel he is a brilliant horse.
TC: I haven’t had many bets at the Festival over the years but the one I keep backing this year is Prospect Wells. Yes, he ran badly at Sandown but since then he has had a specialist operation and the yard are really happy with him now. Paul Nicholls has said he will run here and he looks a massive price if you look at his form with Steps To Freedom. When he was beat that day it was around the time the new whip laws had been introduced and Daryl Jacob froze as he didn’t know how many times he had hit the horse. If you take that into consideration that he most probably would have beat Steps To Freedom and he definitely wouldn’t be the price he is now.
ST: I feel that Darlan is a false favourite, his form isn’t strong and in this wide open race he is definitely not for me. I really like Motbazon, he is a very lazy horse and they are only just getting the hang of riding him and he would stand a great chance. Tetlami appears to be a bit of an unsung hero, he is a very useful horse and he is crazily overpriced at the moment so I would go with those two.
Arkle
We were joined at this point by special guest John Hales (JH), owner of Al Ferof, who gave us a very interesting insight into his horse’s chance.
JH: This could be the last time we see him over two miles, Ruby got off him and said roll on the King George, with the plan to go for the Gold Cup next year. I was told two interesting facts the other day which would make you think twice about siding with Sprinter Sacre this year. Firstly Al Ferof won the Supreme in a quicker time than Hurricane Fly won the Champion Hurdle. Secondly that jumping the last fence last year we gave Sprinter Sacre a 4½ length lead and beat him by 5 lengths, from the last fence to the line we beat him by 10 lengths and at Cheltenham that is where the race will be won and lost. He is in great form and we are really hopeful that he will win again at the Festival.
ST: I hate to disagree with JH but I think Sprinter Sacre (SS) will win the race, he looks an exceptional horse and if Barry Geraghty thinks he is the best he has sat on since Moscow Flyer you really need to sit up and take note.
SM1: I think the value has gone in the race, short priced favourites don’t do well in the Arkle but this may be different. Barry doesn’t think there will be any problem with SS going up the hill, but I do think there are real dangers. Al Ferof’s form is rock solid; Menorah may jump better and run well. I don’t like Cue Card’s chances; it’s very difficult to win an Arkle from the front.
TC: There is no depth in the race, SS and Al Ferof are both top class horses but if I had to choose I would go with Al Ferof.
LH: SS has been very impressive on the clock, but he has never jumped under pressure unlike Al Ferof. SS didn’t find much in the Supreme and I think the same could happen again. so it’s Al Ferof for me.
Champion Hurdle
TC: I think Hurricane Fly will win this again, I don’t really think there is anything against him this year. Brampour has been very over-looked; he had a setback before the Betfair Hurdle, in which he sat out the back and giving Zarkandar 11lb was only beaten 9 lengths. At a huge price he is a great each-way shout.
LH: I don’t think Binocular’s run was as impressive as people thought so I think Hurricane Fly will win the race again. It will be interesting to see him run in a race with a stronger pace that Overturn will create. If there is a strong pace then Rock On Ruby, who is very unexposed, may have a chance of improving and running a very big race. Saying this though I think the market without Hurricane Fly is where we need to look, and 11/1 for the ultra consistent Thousand Stars, who finished fourth in the race last year, seems overpriced for this market for sure.
SM2: I also like Brampour’s chances of getting a place but Hurricane Fly is a banker here.
ST: Hurricane is pretty much impregnable, it will be interesting if there is a strong pace but I still think he wins. As LH said I think Thousand Stars is a ridiculous price without the Fly.
SM1: Hurricane Fly is a very solid horse, probably the most likely winner of the returning champions. Overturn worked exceptionally well the other day and the yard is very bullish about his chances of getting in the frame.
Neptune
SM2: Simonsig has the best form in Britain without Fingal Bay; he probably didn’t like the ground when he got beaten and he is easily the best in the race.
TC: At 11/4 Simonsig looks a bit obvious but there isn’t a lot of depth in the race. I think he is a very good horse but I do have a slight doubt about him staying.
ST: Simonsig had a bad trach wash after Sandown and if Boston Bob goes in the other race as is expected then he will stand a great chance. Saying this though Batonnier is the best value, he is an out and out stayer and I think he may just catch out the flashy Simonsig.
SM1: I also like Battonier but think he may not be good enough to beat Simonsig. I also like the outsider Cotton Mill who should have a great chance of getting in the frame.
RSA Chase
SM1: Grands Crus running in this race will depend on Kauto Star lining up or not in the Gold Cup, but if I had the choice then I would run him in this. I think he doesn’t have a lot to beat in this especially after Bobs Worth’s tough race last time out. I think Grands Crus should win this quite comfortably.
ST: Bobs Worth is the type of horse to win this race; he should grind away along with Join Together who I think will both be in the mix.
TC: Join Together has come into the race very underrated and at 8/1 he has a very solid chance.
LH: I think Grands Crus should run here, as I don’t think the Gold Cup distance will suit him as well as this. I like the chances of Bobs Worth, Join Together & First Lieutenant but I think Sirs Des Champs could be a very good horse, the distance may suit him better and I think if he runs he would cause Grands Crus a lot of problems.
SM2: I am also a fan of Join Together and at 8/1 I agree he is a massive price.
Champion Chase
LH: Sizing Europe (SE) is better than Big Zeb by a fair way now and should win this comfortably. Finian’s Rainbow is a big place player but I like Kauto Stone to grab a place at a big price.
SM1 & TC: Both agreed that SE would win and Kauto Stone is a big price to get into the frame.
ST: At 50/1 I’m So Lucky may be able to fluke a place.
Jewson
ST: Peddlers Cross hasn’t had an ideal preparation so I would side with Champion Court who has excellent Cheltenham form and would have a great chance.
TC: Peddlers Cross has had very little schooling since Kempton, but they were very happy with his last piece of work. I don’t really have an opinion on the race but Crystal Bonus and For Non Stop have very solid form.
SM1: I couldn’t be backing Peddlers Cross. Donald McCain didn’t seem that upbeat about him at another Preview Night, and I think if it wasn’t Cheltenham he wouldn’t run.
SM2: Crystal Bonus is definitely the one to take on Peddlers with.
LH: Peddlers is obviously a very talented horse but with all the uncertainty around him I like the chances of Champion Court.
Ryanair
SM2: This is a much stronger race than in the past, and I like the chances of both Riverside Theatre and Somersby. I think that there is very little evidence in the argument that Riverside Theatre won’t run well at Cheltenham and he is a top class horse so he is the one for me.
LH: If Quel Esprit ran in this then I think he would stand a great chance.
SM1: Noble Price hasn’t run badly this season and should love the conditions coming into Cheltenham.
ST: I can’t be having Riverside Theatre and I would take him on with Noble Price, who won at Cheltenham last year, he has had a tiny procedure to tidy up his wind and he looks like he has been trained this season for this race and this race alone.
World Hurdle
ST: It’s impossible to oppose Big Bucks (BB), Oscar Whiskey is one of the highest class of horses to take on BB but I think the market without him is the one to be looking at. Dynaste has great form against him and at 5/1 he looks a cracking price.
TC: Oscar Whisky is the only horse who has a chance of beating him, but if BB runs to form then Oscar Whisky will have to be the best staying hurdler for around 40 years.
LH: Without BB Dynaste at 6/1 and So Young at 8/1 look very interesting to me.
SM2: I don’t think Oscar Whisky will stay but he is the only real class against him.
Triumph
SM1: I would like Sadler’s Risk’s chances of reversing the form with Baby Mix, who I think has a quirk in him. Balder Succes is the other one that would appeal at the prices.
TC: Paul Nicholls has said that Zarkandar and Pearl Swan schooled really well yesterday. Pearl Swan was giving weight to Grumeti last time and has a real chance of reversing that form on Friday.
ST: I am also in the Pearl Swan camp, he looked very green last time out and at around 8/1 he looks a great price.
SM2: Urbain De Sivola, who beat Ranjaan comprehensively, looks a big price at 16’s. At the top of the market both myself and LH agree that Sadler’s Risk will love going left-handed and the extra distance and is in with a massive chance.
Gold Cup
LH: I think Long Run has been over-rated but the track definitely suits him more than Kauto Star. I really like Burton Port, I worry about the bounce factor but if he doesn’t then he will have a great chance.
SM2: Long Run isn’t as far ahead of the others as the prices would suggest. Burton Port should run a big race and Grands Crus would be very intriguing if he runs but I would have stamina doubts.
SM1: What A Friend has every right to run a big race once again and get into the places.
TC: I think one of the top two in the market will win the race, back them both and sit back and enjoy.
ST: Long Run has rather levelled out a bit, he did everything right at Newbury and only won by ½ a length. I think that Sam on board is an accident waiting to happen. Weird Al without the front two is a big price at 6/1 as well but I have also been speak to Burton Port’s work rider and he is pretty confident that the horse wont bounce and should run another huge race.
Lay and Bet of the Festival
The Panel were then asked for their lay of the meeting, as well as their bet of the meeting with TC kindly offering a £25 charity bet with Betfair.
Bet :
LH: Betting without Hurricane Fly – Thousand Stars
SM2: Urbain De Sivola in the Triumph
SM1: Shot From The Hip
TC: Prospect Wells
ST: Battonier in the Supreme
Lay:
SM2: Long Run
SM1: Baby Mix
ST: Cue Card for a place
LH: Betting without Big Bucks – Oscar Whiskey
