Cheltenham Festival Preview nights

It was the one bit I was going to comment on. Shocking shocking shocking... I believe Mullins wasnt much help either, couldnt give targets for Boston Bob, Sir Des Champs or Final Approach.
 
That's why I refuse to listen to these preview nights. How do complete guessers like that get on a panel.
 
Graham Wylie said on 29 December that he imagined Willie would "make a decision one way or another" about Boston Bob in about ten days time. This is a strong indication he won't run in both races, what more could you want?
 
CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL PREVIEW courtesy of the The Shepherds Crook, Crowel
Sponsored by Sky Bet

Tuesday 6th March

The popular panel of Gold Cup-winning jockey Andrew Thornton (AT), At The Races presenter David Duggan (DD) and fellow broadcaster Andrew Barr (AB) of Racing UK were again hosted by The Shepherd’s Crook at Crowell on Tuesday 6th March. With renowned racing commentator Mark Johnson (MJ) in his regular role as compère, a sumptuous two course meal and a packed pub, the scene was set for an evening of tips, chat and a fair bit of banter.

Champion Hurdle
DD: Hurricane Fly, is a desperate looking animal but has a great engine. Willie Mullins wasn’t happy with him over the winter, something wasn’t quite rite but he couldn’t put his finger on it. They were even nervous when he was going around the parade ring at Leopardstown on his reappearance as he was uncharacteristically quiet but he came alive in the race. It’s impossible to see past him, the Fly is about 5 lengths better than anything in the race. He may become the Quevega type of horse, only making a few appearances in the season around this time of year, winning before being put away. He is in great form and is certainly a banker with Binocular sure to be in the frame.
AT: Very taken with Binoculars win at Wincanton the other day when looking back to his best. This year has seen the horse have the best preparation for a Cheltenham Festival ever and reports are that he is in fine form for the race. He looks likes he’s getting and better and with the sun on his back and with the prices as they are he is certainly the one to take on Hurricane Fly with. Interestingly Ruby Walsh who has rode Zarkandar in the past says that he fears Binocular the most out of the two to pose the biggest danger to the Fly.
AB: Zarkandar will be too slow on the tight track of new course and would be more suited to the old course on which he won the Triumph Hurdle. Binocular travels really well and at around the same price for the two he is by far the better bet but as an outsider he would look towards Donald McCains Overturn. He should get an easy lead and be able to dictate the speed, slow them up and then kick for home and at a huge price looks a great each way prospect. All in all though Hurricane Fly should have the guns to beat Binocular, but don’t rule out Overturn running a big race.



Supreme Novices
AB: Probably the smart play would be to avoid the race, but JP McManus has said that Darlan is his best chance of a winner at the festival and would therefore be stupid to rule out. If I had to chose then I would go for the Willie Mullins factor and Midnight Game who would be able to sit in off the pace and utilise his good finishing speed.
AT: This is the most competitive race at the festival, highlighted when you see that Prospect Wells is 25/1 who was only narrowly defeated at Cheltenham by Steps To Freedom who is 13/2. Jason Maguire has said that Cinders And Ashes is his best chance of a winner at the meeting, he looks high class with an impressive cruising speed and he is sure to keep sticking his neck out where it matters. Montbazon is another one I like, Alan King is in great form and the horse seems to be improving with every run. He beat Vulcanite last time out whose connections though he was unbeatable that day and at 10/1 he is each way value with Cinders And Ashes. I can’t be having Darlan, he had a horrendous fall at Newbury which is a massive negative. He looks a very flashy horse but when push comes to shove I think he will let you down and is probably favourite just on hype.
DD: Cinders And Ashes wont win, he is a big slow yoke and has absolutely no chance. Galileo’s Choice was a very useful sort on the flat and will be partnered by one of the best Jockeys around. He is the one to go for but I do have slight doubts about his stamina and I’m concerned he may just flatten out.
MJ: In agreement about Cinders And Ashes being very slow, and that Darlan is too flashy. I keep getting Montbazon wrong and have changed my opinion on him so many times but he was impressive at Plumpton and is probably the one to side with.

Arkle
AT: Sprinter Sacre looks one of the best horses since Moscow Flyer. In the Supreme AP could barely hold him so I don’t think there is a worry about the track for him. His jumping is brilliant and if you can get even money then that’s an absolute steal! Al Ferof is a very well balanced horse and will finish second and anyone looking at Menorah I think that Richard Johnson may have to pray to just get over the first at the speed they will be going.
AB: Sprinter Sacre is a great bet, he is the best horse currently in training, he would most probably win the Champion Chase if he went for it and he looks to be one of the greats if he continues in the way he has started his career over fences.
DD: Nicky Henderson does have a history of telling us that he has a machine in his yard who then goes and gets beat at the festival. Saying this though Sprinter Sacre looks a different class but you probably shouldn’t back him at the prices. Blackstairmountain has been overlooked in this race, he will be suited by the ground and although probably not good enough to win, should nick a place at a big price.
MJ: Sprinter Sacre gave me the biggest wow factor this year when he looked absolutely spectacular. Cue Card and Al Ferof are both very good but i think they will be fighting for second.

JLT Specialty Handicap Chase
AB: Tullamore Dew is a solid each way bet, he has good festival form which is a massive plus, and he could provide Nick Gifford an emotional first festival winner. Knockara Bow would also have a good each way shout.
AT: Quantativeeasing got messed about when beating Medermit last time out at Cheltenham, he needs to make the frame to qualify for the Grand National which his target at Aintree so he is very interesting. I would oppose Hold on Julio as his best form is at Sandown which is a completely different track. The Giant Bolster has a great cruising speed and if he is allowed to roll along in front then he will be tough to peg back.
DD: Quantitiveeasing is well in this handicap and stands a terrific chance.

Cross Country
AT & DD: Both agreed that Sizing Australia will take a lot of beating on the better ground.
MJ: also agreed about Sizing Australia but also mentioned that Scotsirish is probably the best horse in the race and will be no push over. The big price in the race though is Tom Georges Halley who will be partnerd by the best French Jockey who has been very successful in similar events in France and at a big price of 33/1.

Champion Chase
DD: Sizing Europe is a class act, along with Rubi Light he will be the best jumper at the meeting. He loves the track winning the Greatwood, an Arkle and last year’s Champion Chase. If he doesn’t win by 10 Lengths I will be mortified.
AB: If Sizing Europe gets a clear run he wins. Somersby is overpriced, and Finians Rainbow is probably too slow, Wishful Thinking may be the outsider who may just come alive with the atmosphere.



Neptune
DD: Boston Bob who was very impressive at Navan will go for this race and he will win it, the better ground is more than likely to aid him and not hinder him.
AB: Bostob Bob looks could be an RSA winner in a year’s time, but there is a slight question about the ground. Sous Les Cieux may be in with a good chance, but Simonsig does look very interesting. Barry Geraghty thought this was the race for him rather than the Supreme but I worry he may cruise before finding little.
AT: The trip may not suit Simonsig, I think connections will be hoping that Boston Bob will be going for another race as he looks the most likely winner here as he will enjoy going up the hill. Both AT & MJ agreed that it was hard to see Battonier not being in the frame.

RSA Chase
AT: Grands Crus should run in this race as I don’t think he will get the trip of the Gold Cup and his speed should be a massive plus in this contest. I worry about Bobs Worths jumping as he seems to ponder his fences but I do like First Lieutenant who should be in the mix. Invictus is the one for me though, he travels, jumps and stays and if he is produced at the right time I can see him getting in front of Grands Crus.
DD: Grands Crus is quick but certainly not a stayer. I think that Sir Des Champs is probably overrated and the one to go for would be First Lieutenant. He has been trained very like Weapons Amnesty and he fits the profile of a winner perfectly. He will try for his life and wil love the ground at Cheltenham so for me he wins.
AB: I would also have my stamina doubts for Grands Crus, hes still a class horse but he will need holding up and if that doesn’t go to plan then he may be in trouble. First Lieutenant is a big danger along with the outsider Call The Police but Invictus looks a crazy price in the contest having already beaten Bobs Worth convincingly earlier in the year.
MJ: I’m also against Grands Crus with Invictus, I think it’s been a long scheme from Alan King to run him in this and Choc Thornton really likes him so he is my choice in this but i think the one they will have to beat is Bobs Worth not Grands Crus.

Weatherbys Champion Bumper
DD: I’m not sure if Champagne Fever will run here as I don’t think he’ll like the ground, so the one I would go for here is New Years Eve who has achieved a lot in what he has done so far, and both MJ & AB agreed.
AT: The Tizzard’s think very highly of Royal Guardsman, possibly as good or even better than Cue Card so he would stand a good chance.

Diamond Jubilee National Hunt Chase
The whole panel agreed with DD that Glens Boy at 33/1 was a stupid price and would stand a great chance in the 4m contest.
AB: I also like Teaforthree in this, he has form on good ground and jumps well.

Coral Cup
AT: Our Father looks like he has been set up for this race so looks to have a good chance and it’s hard to see Get Me Out Of Here not being in the first three home.

Fred Winter
AB: If Vendor is as good as Grumeti and Balder Succes then he is very exciting indeed and would be difficult to oppose. Saying this though I do like the chances of Red Inca, who was impressive last time out and with connections thinking there is more to come he may be a great each way bet.

World Hurdle
DD: In my opion, Big Buck’s is faultless- Paul Nicholls could run him in any race. There’s nothing in Ireland to cause him any sleepless nights! Zaidpour is likely to head to France, while the likes of Mikael D’Hageneut just seem to be something of a square peg in a round hole. Cross Kennon is a good each-way bet; he’s already won at Cheltenham, and was just six lengths adrift of Big Buck’s last year [when taking fourth]. I wouldn’t place any faith in Mourad.
AT: Big Buck’s for me too – he’s straight forward, and he beats what he has to beat; he has class and confidence. I would love to see him run in the Gold Cup! Oscar Whisky looks set for second; he’ll get the trip, he likes Cheltenham and travels well. He may try and go wide to catch out Big Buck’s – probably the only way to beat him!
AB: Oscar Whisky is a very, very good horse. If he stays 3m completely, he is the biggest rival to Big Buck’s. It will be a tactical battle though; Cross Kennon may make a better pace for the race, while Dynaste just committed too soon when beaten at Ascot by Big Buck’s. I’d be surprised if Voler La Vedette ran here, though she’s in better form than last year when she ran second to Quevega.
MJ: Big Buck’s for me!



Ryanair Chase
AT: If it was Kempton or Ascot, I’d go with Riverside Theatre, but at Cheltenham, I’d have to oppose him. He’s always been campaigned on flat tracks, and I think he’ll run flat; he’ll be having his second run in less than a month after a year off the track. If Medermit runs, he’ll be very keen. Noble Prince needs to improve from last year. If Albertas Run wins it will be one hell of a training performance; a month ago they said he had a one million to one chance of getting there, and while it looks more likely now, it’ll still be a tough ask. Somersby is better than ever before, has a lot of experience and gave a good performance at Ascot.
DD: Rubi Light is best suited to soft ground, which he won’t get here. Noble Prince has had a peculiar campaign in the run-up to the Festival, and for me, Riverside Theatre is a definite no. Albertas Run is difficult to judge given his year so far. Forpadydeplasterer loves Cheltenham, and the 2m5f furlong trip is ideal – he’s in with a great chance. Kalahari King could also run into a place.
AB: I’m also against Rubi Light on account of the ground, it will be too quick. Somersby needs a shorter trip, and as Andrew said, Albertas Run needs on hell of a training performance to win… but Jonjo is one hell of a trainer. For me though, it’s Great Endeavour. He’s a younger horse on the upgrade, and has great each way value.
MJ: I’m going off you Andrew, as that was my ‘bet of the day’! I agree completely, Great Endeavour is a cracking bet. Somersby runs best right handed, while Rubi Light just spends too much time in the air. Albertas Run is a legitimate contender too however – he has already won three times at the Festival.

Jewson Novices’ Chase
AB: It makes sense for Peddlers Cross not to take on Sprinter Sacre, and he suits the 2m4f trip better. For Non Stop was a good second to Al Ferof [in the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase] before winning the Scilly Isles Chase.
AT: I’d oppose Peddlers Cross; at Bangor [Bright Future Novices Chase] Jason [Maguire] had to do all the work for him, and the trip is still too short. Crystal Bonus hasn’t beaten much. For Non Stop ticks all the boxes as a potential Festival winner, the one negative being that Nick Williams has yet to train a winner there. Solix could run well at a big price – he’ll jump, and he’ll travel.
DD: I don’t think Peddlers Cross will run. If Sir Des Champs runs, he may find the trip too sharp.

Pertemps Final
AB: Buena Vista for me – I don’t think anyone will be surprised if he wins or places, though Sivola De Sivola may be real contender. The ground may stop Allthekingshorses running. An interesting one is the Warren Greatrex-trained Barwell Bridge.
DD: Anything could happen in this race. Prince Erik was 2nd in 2010, and Dermot Weld has had this race in mind for a while – worth an each way shout.
MJ: In my opinion, Prince Erik can’t win. When it was run on the old course, the winners tended to be those that were held up. Since it has switched to the new course, they need to stay with the pace. I’d stick with Buena Vista.

Byrne Group Plate
MJ: Divers for me here.
AT: I agree – he won easily here last year.

Cheltenham Gold Cup
AB: Kauto – you’ve gotta love him! He is better over a slightly shorter trip, and if he makes it, I think Long Run will get revenge. The problem with Long Run is that he’s not as good as people want to believe after last year; he was as good as 2011 on his Newbury run. Synchronised is worth a punt at a price; he’s a classy horse, and the longer trip will suit him.
AT: It’s very confusing this year! I said Long Run wouldn’t get the trip in 2011… This year Long Run has looked a bit flat, but that could be because last year Kauto Star wasn’t firing. If Kauto lines up, barring a fall, I would be on him. If he wins, it will be the best training performance of all time. I’m a fan of Midnight Chase, I think he would have gone better last year Dougie Costello on board – no disrespect to Tom [Scudamore], but Dougie knows the horse very well. I think the ground will be too quick for Quel Espirit, and if Grands Crus runs I don’t think he’ll get the trip, What A Friend has a good chance of a place.
DD: Wouldn’t it be great if Kauto Star won? Long Run’s style of racing seems to be a bit complacent. Midnight Chase has had his limitations exposed, and I’d be very disappointed if Quel Espirit won the Gold Cup! I think this year we could be in for a shock, and that could be The Midnight Club. He was sent off favourite for the Grand National [where he finished 6th] and could surprise us.
MJ: I agree with that, The Midnight Club represents excellent each way value. A concern for Long Run is that, while Sam Waley-Cohen is very good, he hasn’t ridden in as many races this year as he had last year.



Triumph Hurdle
AB: Pearl Swan is the form horse, though Sadler’s Risk is another contender – Philip Hobbs thinks he wasn’t fit enough when beaten by Baby Mix.
AT: Balder Succes is now four from four, he’s a good traveller, and is great value. Choc [Thornton] will probably go for Grumeti however, who looks flashy, but I’m not sure he’s tough enough. Baby Mix may bubble over on the day, and while Sadler’s Risk is visibly impressive, he hasn’t really beaten much. Pearl Swan is a bit of a dark horse for Nicholls.
DD: Hisaabaat’s form ties in well with Darroun, though I also wouldn’t give up on Ut De Sivola. The home team definitely have the stronger hand here; English horses are very quick and very professional. Dodging Bullets, another contender from the Nicholls yard, is also worth noting.
MJ: Baby Mix seems to spend a lot of time in the air, but his last Cheltenham run was more down to jockey/trainer error. Don’t be put off by his strange tail carriage however, he broke it as a foal! Grumeti is not a fancy. He fell, was shortened, was awarded a race, shortened, it doesn’t really add up. For me, Balder Success is the outstanding value.

Foxhunter
DD: On The Fringe may struggle with the trip. Salsify bolted up last time out, but Chapoturgeon may be a bit ahead of the field.
AT: Monkerty Tunkerty for me – he stays well, travels well, will love the ground and the rider knows him inside out.
MJ: Chapoturgeon is unlikely to stay, and I have doubts for Cloudy Lane. Barbers Shop may bypass this for the Queen Elizabeth the Queen Mother Memorial Hunters’ Chase at Sandown – apparently the owner has some kind of family connection! Monkerty Tunkerty could be the strongest, though On The Fringe was 4th last year and has a chance, while third-placed Oscar Delta could easily fit the stats and at around 50-1 [best price around 33-1 Thurs am] is great value. Salsify is very impressive however, having won two of Ireland’s biggest Hunter Chases at Leopardstown and Punchestown. It wouldn’t surprise me to see an Irish 1, 2, 3.

Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle
DD: Mount Benbulben would be the pick, but Gordon Elliot’s yard isn’t really in form for one reason or another, and he might swerve the race. If Boston Bob wins his race however, the Irish form will be well franked.
AT: Get stuck into Lovcen each way! Woefully overpriced at 16-1.
AB: Lovcen is a big price so may be worth an each way, though Sea Of Thunder would have won at Cheltenham but for falling.

Vincent O’Brien County Handicap
DD: Moon Dice went well in a key piece of work at Leopardstown. Citizenship needs to be able to stand up for himself a bit more in what could be a rough affair if he’s to stand a chance.
AT: Ted Spread could still be well ahead of the handicapper.
AB: Snap Tie for me is bet of the day. He runs off a low weight after being dropped 15lb following a year off. He’s returning from injury, but for your years on the trot he’s won first time out, and is now rated 137 from 160 following his time off. Master Of Arts remains unexposed.
MJ: If Master Of Arts wins it will be a huge punt.

Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase
AT: Toubab bolted up at Sandown, and jumps very well.
AB: Toubab is on a handy weight, and a quick pace will play into his hands.
MJ: Oiseau De Nuit seems to be returning to form.

Summary
An entertaining and informative night combined with a superb meal! The panel clearly weren’t afraid to take on some of the major players, or each other, as proven by the vocalised difference of opinion over Foxhunter favourite Chapoturgeon.

The evening was rounded off with tips for a leading rider, banker, each way and lay of the meeting.

Leading rider
MJ: Choc Thornton, though if anything untoward should happen to him Wayne Hutchinson could be in with a shot, and is currently around 200-1.
DD: Paul Townend
AB: Ruby Walsh
AT: Ruby Walsh

Banker
MJ: Sizing Europe (although he thinks Sprinter Sacre the most likely winner, and also the most exciting horse of the Festival)
DD: Sizing Europe
AB: Boston Bob
AT: Big Buck’s

Each way
MJ: Great Endeavour
DD: The Midnight Club/Glens Boy
AB: Snap Tie (County)
AT: Lovcen (Albert Bartlett)

Lay
MJ: Chapoturgeon
DD: Grands Crus
AB: Zarkandar
AT: Grands Crus/Peddlers Cross
 
CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL PREVIEW courtesy of the The Shepherds Crook, Crowel
Sponsored by Sky Bet

Tuesday 6th March

The popular panel of Gold Cup-winning jockey Andrew Thornton (AT), At The Races presenter David Duggan (DD) and fellow broadcaster Andrew Barr (AB) of Racing UK were again hosted by The Shepherd’s Crook at Crowell on Tuesday 6th March. With renowned racing commentator Mark Johnson (MJ) in his regular role as compère, a sumptuous two course meal and a packed pub, the scene was set for an evening of tips, chat and a fair bit of banter.

Champion Hurdle
DD: Hurricane Fly, is a desperate looking animal but has a great engine. Willie Mullins wasn’t happy with him over the winter, something wasn’t quite rite but he couldn’t put his finger on it. They were even nervous when he was going around the parade ring at Leopardstown on his reappearance as he was uncharacteristically quiet but he came alive in the race. It’s impossible to see past him, the Fly is about 5 lengths better than anything in the race. He may become the Quevega type of horse, only making a few appearances in the season around this time of year, winning before being put away. He is in great form and is certainly a banker with Binocular sure to be in the frame.
AT: Very taken with Binoculars win at Wincanton the other day when looking back to his best. This year has seen the horse have the best preparation for a Cheltenham Festival ever and reports are that he is in fine form for the race. He looks likes he’s getting and better and with the sun on his back and with the prices as they are he is certainly the one to take on Hurricane Fly with. Interestingly Ruby Walsh who has rode Zarkandar in the past says that he fears Binocular the most out of the two to pose the biggest danger to the Fly.
AB: Zarkandar will be too slow on the tight track of new course and would be more suited to the old course on which he won the Triumph Hurdle. Binocular travels really well and at around the same price for the two he is by far the better bet but as an outsider he would look towards Donald McCains Overturn. He should get an easy lead and be able to dictate the speed, slow them up and then kick for home and at a huge price looks a great each way prospect. All in all though Hurricane Fly should have the guns to beat Binocular, but don’t rule out Overturn running a big race.



Supreme Novices
AB: Probably the smart play would be to avoid the race, but JP McManus has said that Darlan is his best chance of a winner at the festival and would therefore be stupid to rule out. If I had to chose then I would go for the Willie Mullins factor and Midnight Game who would be able to sit in off the pace and utilise his good finishing speed.
AT: This is the most competitive race at the festival, highlighted when you see that Prospect Wells is 25/1 who was only narrowly defeated at Cheltenham by Steps To Freedom who is 13/2. Jason Maguire has said that Cinders And Ashes is his best chance of a winner at the meeting, he looks high class with an impressive cruising speed and he is sure to keep sticking his neck out where it matters. Montbazon is another one I like, Alan King is in great form and the horse seems to be improving with every run. He beat Vulcanite last time out whose connections though he was unbeatable that day and at 10/1 he is each way value with Cinders And Ashes. I can’t be having Darlan, he had a horrendous fall at Newbury which is a massive negative. He looks a very flashy horse but when push comes to shove I think he will let you down and is probably favourite just on hype.
DD: Cinders And Ashes wont win, he is a big slow yoke and has absolutely no chance. Galileo’s Choice was a very useful sort on the flat and will be partnered by one of the best Jockeys around. He is the one to go for but I do have slight doubts about his stamina and I’m concerned he may just flatten out.
MJ: In agreement about Cinders And Ashes being very slow, and that Darlan is too flashy. I keep getting Montbazon wrong and have changed my opinion on him so many times but he was impressive at Plumpton and is probably the one to side with.

Arkle
AT: Sprinter Sacre looks one of the best horses since Moscow Flyer. In the Supreme AP could barely hold him so I don’t think there is a worry about the track for him. His jumping is brilliant and if you can get even money then that’s an absolute steal! Al Ferof is a very well balanced horse and will finish second and anyone looking at Menorah I think that Richard Johnson may have to pray to just get over the first at the speed they will be going.
AB: Sprinter Sacre is a great bet, he is the best horse currently in training, he would most probably win the Champion Chase if he went for it and he looks to be one of the greats if he continues in the way he has started his career over fences.
DD: Nicky Henderson does have a history of telling us that he has a machine in his yard who then goes and gets beat at the festival. Saying this though Sprinter Sacre looks a different class but you probably shouldn’t back him at the prices. Blackstairmountain has been overlooked in this race, he will be suited by the ground and although probably not good enough to win, should nick a place at a big price.
MJ: Sprinter Sacre gave me the biggest wow factor this year when he looked absolutely spectacular. Cue Card and Al Ferof are both very good but i think they will be fighting for second.

JLT Specialty Handicap Chase
AB: Tullamore Dew is a solid each way bet, he has good festival form which is a massive plus, and he could provide Nick Gifford an emotional first festival winner. Knockara Bow would also have a good each way shout.
AT: Quantativeeasing got messed about when beating Medermit last time out at Cheltenham, he needs to make the frame to qualify for the Grand National which his target at Aintree so he is very interesting. I would oppose Hold on Julio as his best form is at Sandown which is a completely different track. The Giant Bolster has a great cruising speed and if he is allowed to roll along in front then he will be tough to peg back.
DD: Quantitiveeasing is well in this handicap and stands a terrific chance.

Cross Country
AT & DD: Both agreed that Sizing Australia will take a lot of beating on the better ground.
MJ: also agreed about Sizing Australia but also mentioned that Scotsirish is probably the best horse in the race and will be no push over. The big price in the race though is Tom Georges Halley who will be partnerd by the best French Jockey who has been very successful in similar events in France and at a big price of 33/1.

Champion Chase
DD: Sizing Europe is a class act, along with Rubi Light he will be the best jumper at the meeting. He loves the track winning the Greatwood, an Arkle and last year’s Champion Chase. If he doesn’t win by 10 Lengths I will be mortified.
AB: If Sizing Europe gets a clear run he wins. Somersby is overpriced, and Finians Rainbow is probably too slow, Wishful Thinking may be the outsider who may just come alive with the atmosphere.



Neptune
DD: Boston Bob who was very impressive at Navan will go for this race and he will win it, the better ground is more than likely to aid him and not hinder him.
AB: Bostob Bob looks could be an RSA winner in a year’s time, but there is a slight question about the ground. Sous Les Cieux may be in with a good chance, but Simonsig does look very interesting. Barry Geraghty thought this was the race for him rather than the Supreme but I worry he may cruise before finding little.
AT: The trip may not suit Simonsig, I think connections will be hoping that Boston Bob will be going for another race as he looks the most likely winner here as he will enjoy going up the hill. Both AT & MJ agreed that it was hard to see Battonier not being in the frame.

RSA Chase
AT: Grands Crus should run in this race as I don’t think he will get the trip of the Gold Cup and his speed should be a massive plus in this contest. I worry about Bobs Worths jumping as he seems to ponder his fences but I do like First Lieutenant who should be in the mix. Invictus is the one for me though, he travels, jumps and stays and if he is produced at the right time I can see him getting in front of Grands Crus.
DD: Grands Crus is quick but certainly not a stayer. I think that Sir Des Champs is probably overrated and the one to go for would be First Lieutenant. He has been trained very like Weapons Amnesty and he fits the profile of a winner perfectly. He will try for his life and wil love the ground at Cheltenham so for me he wins.
AB: I would also have my stamina doubts for Grands Crus, hes still a class horse but he will need holding up and if that doesn’t go to plan then he may be in trouble. First Lieutenant is a big danger along with the outsider Call The Police but Invictus looks a crazy price in the contest having already beaten Bobs Worth convincingly earlier in the year.
MJ: I’m also against Grands Crus with Invictus, I think it’s been a long scheme from Alan King to run him in this and Choc Thornton really likes him so he is my choice in this but i think the one they will have to beat is Bobs Worth not Grands Crus.

Weatherbys Champion Bumper
DD: I’m not sure if Champagne Fever will run here as I don’t think he’ll like the ground, so the one I would go for here is New Years Eve who has achieved a lot in what he has done so far, and both MJ & AB agreed.
AT: The Tizzard’s think very highly of Royal Guardsman, possibly as good or even better than Cue Card so he would stand a good chance.

Diamond Jubilee National Hunt Chase
The whole panel agreed with DD that Glens Boy at 33/1 was a stupid price and would stand a great chance in the 4m contest.
AB: I also like Teaforthree in this, he has form on good ground and jumps well.

Coral Cup
AT: Our Father looks like he has been set up for this race so looks to have a good chance and it’s hard to see Get Me Out Of Here not being in the first three home.

Fred Winter
AB: If Vendor is as good as Grumeti and Balder Succes then he is very exciting indeed and would be difficult to oppose. Saying this though I do like the chances of Red Inca, who was impressive last time out and with connections thinking there is more to come he may be a great each way bet.

World Hurdle
DD: In my opion, Big Buck’s is faultless- Paul Nicholls could run him in any race. There’s nothing in Ireland to cause him any sleepless nights! Zaidpour is likely to head to France, while the likes of Mikael D’Hageneut just seem to be something of a square peg in a round hole. Cross Kennon is a good each-way bet; he’s already won at Cheltenham, and was just six lengths adrift of Big Buck’s last year [when taking fourth]. I wouldn’t place any faith in Mourad.
AT: Big Buck’s for me too – he’s straight forward, and he beats what he has to beat; he has class and confidence. I would love to see him run in the Gold Cup! Oscar Whisky looks set for second; he’ll get the trip, he likes Cheltenham and travels well. He may try and go wide to catch out Big Buck’s – probably the only way to beat him!
AB: Oscar Whisky is a very, very good horse. If he stays 3m completely, he is the biggest rival to Big Buck’s. It will be a tactical battle though; Cross Kennon may make a better pace for the race, while Dynaste just committed too soon when beaten at Ascot by Big Buck’s. I’d be surprised if Voler La Vedette ran here, though she’s in better form than last year when she ran second to Quevega.
MJ: Big Buck’s for me!



Ryanair Chase
AT: If it was Kempton or Ascot, I’d go with Riverside Theatre, but at Cheltenham, I’d have to oppose him. He’s always been campaigned on flat tracks, and I think he’ll run flat; he’ll be having his second run in less than a month after a year off the track. If Medermit runs, he’ll be very keen. Noble Prince needs to improve from last year. If Albertas Run wins it will be one hell of a training performance; a month ago they said he had a one million to one chance of getting there, and while it looks more likely now, it’ll still be a tough ask. Somersby is better than ever before, has a lot of experience and gave a good performance at Ascot.
DD: Rubi Light is best suited to soft ground, which he won’t get here. Noble Prince has had a peculiar campaign in the run-up to the Festival, and for me, Riverside Theatre is a definite no. Albertas Run is difficult to judge given his year so far. Forpadydeplasterer loves Cheltenham, and the 2m5f furlong trip is ideal – he’s in with a great chance. Kalahari King could also run into a place.
AB: I’m also against Rubi Light on account of the ground, it will be too quick. Somersby needs a shorter trip, and as Andrew said, Albertas Run needs on hell of a training performance to win… but Jonjo is one hell of a trainer. For me though, it’s Great Endeavour. He’s a younger horse on the upgrade, and has great each way value.
MJ: I’m going off you Andrew, as that was my ‘bet of the day’! I agree completely, Great Endeavour is a cracking bet. Somersby runs best right handed, while Rubi Light just spends too much time in the air. Albertas Run is a legitimate contender too however – he has already won three times at the Festival.

Jewson Novices’ Chase
AB: It makes sense for Peddlers Cross not to take on Sprinter Sacre, and he suits the 2m4f trip better. For Non Stop was a good second to Al Ferof [in the Henry VIII Novices’ Chase] before winning the Scilly Isles Chase.
AT: I’d oppose Peddlers Cross; at Bangor [Bright Future Novices Chase] Jason [Maguire] had to do all the work for him, and the trip is still too short. Crystal Bonus hasn’t beaten much. For Non Stop ticks all the boxes as a potential Festival winner, the one negative being that Nick Williams has yet to train a winner there. Solix could run well at a big price – he’ll jump, and he’ll travel.
DD: I don’t think Peddlers Cross will run. If Sir Des Champs runs, he may find the trip too sharp.

Pertemps Final
AB: Buena Vista for me – I don’t think anyone will be surprised if he wins or places, though Sivola De Sivola may be real contender. The ground may stop Allthekingshorses running. An interesting one is the Warren Greatrex-trained Barwell Bridge.
DD: Anything could happen in this race. Prince Erik was 2nd in 2010, and Dermot Weld has had this race in mind for a while – worth an each way shout.
MJ: In my opinion, Prince Erik can’t win. When it was run on the old course, the winners tended to be those that were held up. Since it has switched to the new course, they need to stay with the pace. I’d stick with Buena Vista.

Byrne Group Plate
MJ: Divers for me here.
AT: I agree – he won easily here last year.

Cheltenham Gold Cup
AB: Kauto – you’ve gotta love him! He is better over a slightly shorter trip, and if he makes it, I think Long Run will get revenge. The problem with Long Run is that he’s not as good as people want to believe after last year; he was as good as 2011 on his Newbury run. Synchronised is worth a punt at a price; he’s a classy horse, and the longer trip will suit him.
AT: It’s very confusing this year! I said Long Run wouldn’t get the trip in 2011… This year Long Run has looked a bit flat, but that could be because last year Kauto Star wasn’t firing. If Kauto lines up, barring a fall, I would be on him. If he wins, it will be the best training performance of all time. I’m a fan of Midnight Chase, I think he would have gone better last year Dougie Costello on board – no disrespect to Tom [Scudamore], but Dougie knows the horse very well. I think the ground will be too quick for Quel Espirit, and if Grands Crus runs I don’t think he’ll get the trip, What A Friend has a good chance of a place.
DD: Wouldn’t it be great if Kauto Star won? Long Run’s style of racing seems to be a bit complacent. Midnight Chase has had his limitations exposed, and I’d be very disappointed if Quel Espirit won the Gold Cup! I think this year we could be in for a shock, and that could be The Midnight Club. He was sent off favourite for the Grand National [where he finished 6th] and could surprise us.
MJ: I agree with that, The Midnight Club represents excellent each way value. A concern for Long Run is that, while Sam Waley-Cohen is very good, he hasn’t ridden in as many races this year as he had last year.



Triumph Hurdle
AB: Pearl Swan is the form horse, though Sadler’s Risk is another contender – Philip Hobbs thinks he wasn’t fit enough when beaten by Baby Mix.
AT: Balder Succes is now four from four, he’s a good traveller, and is great value. Choc [Thornton] will probably go for Grumeti however, who looks flashy, but I’m not sure he’s tough enough. Baby Mix may bubble over on the day, and while Sadler’s Risk is visibly impressive, he hasn’t really beaten much. Pearl Swan is a bit of a dark horse for Nicholls.
DD: Hisaabaat’s form ties in well with Darroun, though I also wouldn’t give up on Ut De Sivola. The home team definitely have the stronger hand here; English horses are very quick and very professional. Dodging Bullets, another contender from the Nicholls yard, is also worth noting.
MJ: Baby Mix seems to spend a lot of time in the air, but his last Cheltenham run was more down to jockey/trainer error. Don’t be put off by his strange tail carriage however, he broke it as a foal! Grumeti is not a fancy. He fell, was shortened, was awarded a race, shortened, it doesn’t really add up. For me, Balder Success is the outstanding value.

Foxhunter
DD: On The Fringe may struggle with the trip. Salsify bolted up last time out, but Chapoturgeon may be a bit ahead of the field.
AT: Monkerty Tunkerty for me – he stays well, travels well, will love the ground and the rider knows him inside out.
MJ: Chapoturgeon is unlikely to stay, and I have doubts for Cloudy Lane. Barbers Shop may bypass this for the Queen Elizabeth the Queen Mother Memorial Hunters’ Chase at Sandown – apparently the owner has some kind of family connection! Monkerty Tunkerty could be the strongest, though On The Fringe was 4th last year and has a chance, while third-placed Oscar Delta could easily fit the stats and at around 50-1 [best price around 33-1 Thurs am] is great value. Salsify is very impressive however, having won two of Ireland’s biggest Hunter Chases at Leopardstown and Punchestown. It wouldn’t surprise me to see an Irish 1, 2, 3.

Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle
DD: Mount Benbulben would be the pick, but Gordon Elliot’s yard isn’t really in form for one reason or another, and he might swerve the race. If Boston Bob wins his race however, the Irish form will be well franked.
AT: Get stuck into Lovcen each way! Woefully overpriced at 16-1.
AB: Lovcen is a big price so may be worth an each way, though Sea Of Thunder would have won at Cheltenham but for falling.

Vincent O’Brien County Handicap
DD: Moon Dice went well in a key piece of work at Leopardstown. Citizenship needs to be able to stand up for himself a bit more in what could be a rough affair if he’s to stand a chance.
AT: Ted Spread could still be well ahead of the handicapper.
AB: Snap Tie for me is bet of the day. He runs off a low weight after being dropped 15lb following a year off. He’s returning from injury, but for your years on the trot he’s won first time out, and is now rated 137 from 160 following his time off. Master Of Arts remains unexposed.
MJ: If Master Of Arts wins it will be a huge punt.

Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Chase
AT: Toubab bolted up at Sandown, and jumps very well.
AB: Toubab is on a handy weight, and a quick pace will play into his hands.
MJ: Oiseau De Nuit seems to be returning to form.

Summary
An entertaining and informative night combined with a superb meal! The panel clearly weren’t afraid to take on some of the major players, or each other, as proven by the vocalised difference of opinion over Foxhunter favourite Chapoturgeon.

The evening was rounded off with tips for a leading rider, banker, each way and lay of the meeting.

Leading rider
MJ: Choc Thornton, though if anything untoward should happen to him Wayne Hutchinson could be in with a shot, and is currently around 200-1.
DD: Paul Townend
AB: Ruby Walsh
AT: Ruby Walsh

Banker
MJ: Sizing Europe (although he thinks Sprinter Sacre the most likely winner, and also the most exciting horse of the Festival)
DD: Sizing Europe
AB: Boston Bob
AT: Big Buck’s

Each way
MJ: Great Endeavour
DD: The Midnight Club/Glens Boy
AB: Snap Tie (County)
AT: Lovcen (Albert Bartlett)

Lay
MJ: Chapoturgeon
DD: Grands Crus
AB: Zarkandar
AT: Grands Crus/Peddlers Cross
 
CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL PREVIEW at THE HASELBURY MILL, Somerset
Sponsored by Sky Bet

Tuesday, 6th March
The panel was chaired by Author Jonathan Powell (JP), who was joined by ex-jockey Mick Fitzgerald (MF), bookie Andy Smith (AS), Paul Nicholls’ Assistant Trainer Harry Fry (HF) and last year’s Triumph Hurdle winner Daryl Jacob (DJ). Rattling through the races day-by-day the well balanced panel were able to enlighten the room from various different angles, ending with all five panel members highlighting their NAP’s for each of the four days racing.

Day 1
SUPREME NOVICES’ HURDLE
DJ: I really like our runner Prospect Wells – He’s had a wind-op, and the pace of the race and the good ground will really suit and I think he is really overpriced.
AS: Darlan is rated higher than Get Me Out of Here was when he was runner-up for connections in 2010 and the money’s really coming for him so I wouldn’t be surprised if they continued to gamble on him right until the off and I can see him going off at 5/2.

ARKLE
MF: I worked for Nicky for 15 years and I have never heard him speak about a horse like he does of Sprinter Sacre – He is the real deal and he could win without coming off the bridle.
DJ: Al Ferof schooled well this morning, he is very fresh and it will be interesting to see what Sprinter Sacre finds off the bridle. Our lad isn’t the quickest but he stays well and he will be doing all his best work late on and will be flying up the hill like he did 12 months ago in the Supreme.
AS: Al Ferof is the main danger to the favourite but I wouldn’t discount Menorah – He loves the track and if his schooling sessions with Yogi Breisner have worked he could well give Sprinter Sacre a race.
HF: Apparently the horses at Nicky Henderson’s can’t go quick enough for Sprinter Sacre at home so Al Ferof could struggle mid-race but one thing for sure is he will be flying up the hill.

CHAMPION HURDLE
DJ: Hurricane Fly will be very difficult to beat if he repeats last year’s form. Zarkandar has had a wind-op and is good form after being schooled and certainly has the toe to give him a race.
HF: Rock on Ruby is very well and we knew the track at Kempton wouldn’t suit him and he still nearly beat Binocular that day. Overturn well set a good solid pace which will suit, we’ve schooled him and we couldn’t be happier.
MF: Out of the four short priced runners during the week Hurricane Fly is the best of them and he could run below his best and still win making him the one I want to be on. For each-way punters Thousand Stars has an excellent chance of placing. AP said Binocular was back to his best at Wincanton and he will have a chance of placing but they will all be behind Hurricane Fly.
JP: Overturn is a very tough and hardy front runner and has shown better form than last year; he galloped well at Bangor and I would be very surprised if more than 3 or 4 get past him so back him each-way without the favourite.

NAPS
HF: Rock on Ruby & Colour Squadron each way.
AS: Darlan.
MF: Darlan.
DJ: Prospect Wells each way at 25/1, he shouldn’t be that price.
JP: Triolo D’Alene



Day 2
QUEEN MOTHER
AS: Sizing Europe should be 4/6 but he will have to make the most of his victory this year because Sprinter Sacre will win it for the next 3 years. If Somersby runs, which I think he should, then back him without the favourite as he is the only conceivable danger.

R.S.A
HF: Join Together has got guts, course form and jumps and stays which gives him a chance. I don’t think Bobs Worth jumps well enough; First Lieutenant has festival form so cannot be discounted.
MF: I love repeat offenders at Cheltenham and Bobs Worth is one of those – The way races are run at the festival are like no other meeting anywhere in the country and the pace of the race and going back left handed could spring him back into life, however First Lieutenant could be the one to beat who loves a fast pace and jumps really well.
DJ: I really like Invictus – I was very impressed with him at Ascot; he jumps quickly and stays, also I know Choc is sweet on him and he has a great chance.
MF: I have had a bet on Join Together – He stays well and he’s a good solid jumper.

NEPTUNE INVESTMENT NOVICES’ HURDLE
AS: Monksland is the best of the Irish and he will be the danger to Simonsig
MF: I’m surprised Simonsig looks more likely to head this race and he has a great chance with Boston Bob looking likely to head to the Albertt Bartlett – He’s a worthy favourite but he’s short enough in the betting. Monksland can’t win – His tail was swishing like a windmill last time out and his trainer (Noel Meade) has a terrible record at the festival.

NATIONAL HUNT CHALLENGE CUP
HF: We have Harry The Viking in this and I know Paul Nicholls is very keen on him; he gallops and stays, and the trip will really suit. Will Biddick is going to ride him and he has plenty of experience and he has a big chance.

NAPS
HF: Harry the Viking
DJ: Invictus
MF: Sizing Europe
JP: Allee Garde
AS: Alle Garde



Day 3
JEWSON NOVICES’ CHASE
MF: Solix would win if there were no obstacles in his way; he is very smart but back him at your peril. The one I really
like is Sir Des Champs who has been laid out for this race and he will take all the beating.
AS: I’ve backed Cristal Bonus who jumped fantastic first time out and he will be much better going left-handed, although I do think Solix has a brilliant chance if he jumps.
DJ: For Non Stop has a serious engine and he has improved for every run this season and he ran well behind Al Ferof; he’s always been held in high regard and he jumps and stays really well.

WORLD HURDLE
AS: Big Bucks will get beat one day and I am willing to lay 8/13, which you won’t get anywhere on the high street. Both Oscar Whiskey and Voler La Vedette can give him a race and So Young could also run well in a really tough field – I think he (Big Bucks) will get beat.
HF: Realistically this won’t be the year he gets beat, he’s in top order.
MF: I think Big Bucks will win but one day he will get beat and it could be this year. Oscar Whiskey at 6/4 without Big Bucks is what I’d rather be on.

PERTEMPTS FINAL
JP: David Pipe has said Our Father has an outstanding chance and the 20lb rise in the weights won’t stop him.
AS: Beuna Vista is higher than his winning mark of last year but Tom Bellamy rides and taking off 10lbs with his claim the horse actually looks well in. Jetson could also play a big hand in the race after winning a qualifier at Leopardstown.

RYANAIR
MF: Albertas Run is another repeat offender ; he’s won the last two renewals of this race and an R.S.A chase proving he loves Cheltenham and he is the value horse in the race.
HF: Poquelin has run in the race twice before, coming up short on both occasions and I don’t think this year will be any different – Albertas Run is the value.
AS: I really like Medermit if he runs, as well as Noble Prince. I would lay Riverside Theatre, Albertas Run and Rubi Light.

NAPS
HF: Lay Peddlers Cross in the Jewson
AS: Lay Big Bucks
JP: Cristal Bonus
MF: Sir Des Champs
DJ: Noble Prince



Day 4
TRIUMPH HURDLE
HF: Pearl Swan is my NAP of the festival – He jumped impressively at Taunton and there is a lot more improvement to come.
DJ: Dildar stays very well, he loves good ground and he’s quick and nimble over hurdles. I can’t understand why his odds are so much bigger than Pearl Swan and he’ll be improving.
MF: I’ve backed Alan King to train the winner of this race and I am very happy with the chances of both Grumeti and Balder Success. Grumeti has reportedly had a foot problem but he’s had a new shoe put on and Alan doesn’t believe this will have any negative effects. He ran just 5 days after falling at Newbury when he was awarded the race in which Pearl Swan won and there will be more to come from him.

GOLD CUP
HF: Kauto Star showed signs of improvement this morning and Cliff is happy, which generally means everyone else is happy. It isn’t ideal preparation but one thing for sure is he will only run if the team are 110% sure he is right, so dismiss him at your peril.
MF: Paul Nicholls has the toughest job in racing this week and I really hope he makes the race as it won’t be the same without him, but I can’t see him being good enough to win as a 12-y-o. It’s the weakest year we’ve seen for a long time and Long Run doesn’t seem the same horse this year, so I can see a shock result, with What A Friend a player if he’s back to his best.
AS: There will be a shock this year – Long Run will get beat. I really like Weird Al who ran well behind the two market leaders at Haydock and he has a good track record.

FOXHUNTERS
HF: We have According To John and Chapoturgeon in the race and at home you can’t split them – I wouldn’t swap either of them and I give them both excellent chances.

COUNTY HURDLE
HF: Ted Spread is thrown in at the weights and he’s Paul’s best handicap chance of the week.
DJ: I rode Ted Spread at Ascot when trained by Mark Tompkins and when he bumped into Grumeti – He’s improving all the time, the good ground will suit, he was rated 104 on the flat and I’m very hopeful of his chances.

CONDITIONAL JOCKEY’S HURDLE
MF: Eradicate loves fast run races and quick ground so with this being a race on the last day the ground often dries out which will suit him; he’s off a nice mark and David Bass gets on really well with him so he would have a great chance.

NAPS
DJ: Pearl Swan
MF: Boston Bob
AS: Boston Bob
HF: According To John

BEST BETS
JP: Triolo D’Alene (Centenary Novices’ Chase) the yard think he’s better than the handicapper rates him.
MF: Ferdy Murphy really likes Going Wrong in the same race as Triolo D’Alene and he’s absolutely adamant it’s his each way NAP of the festival
 
LUKE said:
What a merchant banker Johnny Ward is.He put Sizing Europe up as a lay in his first novice chase and was still talking the horse down this time last year.
Click to expand...


"Merchant banker" I love it:cool: He's a terrible tipster- him and his 0.5 pts e/w tips:lol::lol:
 
LUKE said:
What a merchant banker Johnny Ward is.He put Sizing Europe up as a lay in his first novice chase and was still talking the horse down this time last year.
Click to expand...

My utter contempt for the man is unlimited. We went for the same job on that TV show with Powers and I've never forgiven myself for finishing behind him. He's the laughing stock of the clued in lads on the racecourse.
 
Coral Cheltenham Preview Night; Loose Cannon Club, London; Tuesday 6th March

A panel of four were the main players in discussion. These were Nick Luck (NL), Channel 4 Racing and RacingUK presenter; Simon Clare (SC), Head of PR at Coral; Mark “The Couch” Winstanley (MH), from the Racing Post and Paddy Brennan (PB), who arrived late after returning from riding at Exeter. All 27 races were discussed, albeit some briefly and I’ll go through them in chronological order, as the panel also did bar the exception of the Gold Cup, which was left until last.

Tuesday

Supreme Novices Hurdle

The Supreme Novices Hurdle opened the discussion, with MW vehemently opposed to Galileo’s Choice, mainly due to the poor record of Dermot Weld at the Festival alongside that he believed that Weld was merely using Cheltenham as a “schooling session for Galway”. MW advised giving this race a miss altogether. SC commented on the shortening price of Darlan, possibly due to owner JP McManus claiming it was his NAP of the Festival. SC also put in good mentions for Tetlami from the same Nicky Henderson yard, along with Galileo’s Choice, which provided the first of many short and lively debates with MW regarding Dermot Weld. At a bigger price, NL suggested the Charlie Longsdon trained Vulcanite as a nice each-way wager, his belief being that his run last time at Newbury was disappointing due to incorrect jockey tactics. PB supported NL’s views regarding Vulcanite, and was very complimentary regarding work he’d done on the horse at home, using the word “unbelievable”.

Arkle Trophy

The Arkle contains the highly touted Sprinter Sacre and all four of the panel agreed that he’s going to be very difficult to beat. SC suggested that on-course layers will be very tempted to get stuck in to this favourite and evens on-course might not be a complete fantasy, a view corroborated by his colleague in the audience, James Knight. MW sternly rubbished suggestions that Sprinter Sacre would fail to get up the Cheltenham hill, and quickly went on to say that Ruby Walsh for top jockey was his NAP of the festival, along with Blackstairmountain in the w/o favourite market in the Arkle not being a bad shout. Both NL and PB also agreed that barring accidents Sprinter Sacre could be very difficult to beat.

JLT Handicap Chase

MW threw up a few horses in this race, including The Package who has been off for a long while but has been well-supported. Penny Max too as a NRNB play, especially if the ground comes up soft [was pulled out at Ascot as ground said too fast a couple of weeks ago]. MW also put in a good word for Tullamore Dew, who was just touched off at that Ascot meeting and he wouldn’t put anyone off backing Quantitativeeasing, NL stating that he needed to get in the first 4 to get a place for the National. NL further added a good mention of Lie Forrit, a favourite of a colleague of his and he believed he was a similar kind of horse to that of Chief Dan George, and Lie Forrit would prove to be well-handicapped over fences. SC provided a trend that winners tended to be rated 143 or less, and thus he thought Tullamore Dew might go well. SC also had reservations regarding current favourite Hold On Julio, as Wayne Hutchinson had concerns regarding the horse’s jumping.

Champion Hurdle

This was another race where the race seemingly revolves around one horse, that being in this instance Hurricane Fly. In this case, the panel wasn’t unanimous in their support for the Willie Mullins trained horse. NL suggested Binocular as being a “great each-way price” at 5/1 and a “danger to all” if his form of his win in this race two years ago. SC was less impressed with Binocular, stating him as “unexciting” and suggesting that a possible betting plan of action would be to wait for the day regarding backing Hurricane Fly, as it is likely that the bookmakers may try to get after him on-course. PB thought Hurricane Fly would win barring accidents, whilst MW was similarly impressed, especially after his last win at Leopardstown. Other bets suggested in this race was that by SC of Oscars Well and a place bet on Overturn, whilst MW also liked the chance of Rock on Ruby in the w/o favourite market, alongside a tricast including Hurricane Fly, Rock on Ruby and Thousand Stars.

Cross Country Chase

This race was mentioned only very briefly, with PB quickly quashing any suggestion he’d want to ride in this race. SC mentioned that Richard Johson believed that Balthazar King was his best chance at the Festival in this race. My feelings of that horse would be that he’d need fairly quick ground to play a part in the finish, which with the current forecast isn’t that likely.

David Nicholson Mares Hurdle

Another race where the market revolves around one horse, that being Quevega. PB will likely ride Terre Du Vent but claimed Quevega to be a certainty. SC suggested the only horse that could beat Quevega would be Unaccompanied (bringing about another short debate regarding the Cheltenham Festival record of Dermot Weld) but the market vibes were suggesting she wouldn’t line up. MW put up Kentford Grey Lady, a progressive horse who he claimed was given a poor ride by Jack Doyle last time, as a place bet, but that Quevega would win.

Centerary

SC and MW both mentioned the gamble on Triolo D’Arlene, who allegedly was tipped by Nicky Henderson himself as his NAP of the Festival, and there were reports of said horse working like a 150 rated animal. SC also found the Irish trained Slieveardagh interesting, whilst MW also threw the Tony Martin trained Nearest The Pin into the mix, who he’d received a positive report for. NL liked Shot From The Hip, whom he felt was well-handicapped on his form over timber and at 10/1, had slipped under the radar. PB suggested Ackertac, who had finished behind Triolo D’Arlene at Ascot earlier this year, as having been “set-up” for this contest by his old boss Nigel Twiston-Davies.

Wednesday

NH Chase

MW suggested Allee Garde as being one of his best bets of the festival, feeling it should be a much shorter price than it currently is. SC commented on the market support for Harry the Viking, along with the low-profile campaign over fences of Oscar Dan Dan also being of interest. SC also liked Teaforthree as he would stay the trip solidly. NL felt that Alfie Spinner was Nick Williams’ best chance of a winner at the Festival and that he should go well upped in trip.

Neptune Investments Hurdle

MW was of the view that Boston Bob would win any race he goes for, but market signals were suggesting that BB was going to go elsewhere, and that the 5/2 on Simonsig at the time was a fantastic NRNB investment. It was also stated Irish P2P rider Derek O’Connor at another Cheltenham Preview night, had suggested that Simonsig was “banker material” having his experience with the horse in the past, NL adding that he’s bred for the trip and it will likely turn out to be his best distance and that the race itself would be fairly thin if Boston Bob didn’t show.

RSA Chase

Will Grand Crus turn up here or in the Gold Cup? SC suggested the market vibes were pointing to the latter. If lining up in this race though, it’s probable that the bookmakers will again want to take on the favourite anyway and SC stated Bobs Worth as having an obvious chance, fitting the stats nicely. He also added that the huge gamble in Sire Des Champs meant there was very little value in the price currently. MW disagreed entirely, stating Sir Des Champs to be an “aeroplane” and having an excellent chance, shown especially by how far he’d come from the rear last time out, later going on to give it as his charity bet. MW felt that Grand Crus should be given a crack at the Gold Cup.

Queen Mother Champion Chase

MW brought up the poor record of older horses in this contest, leading him to have sided with Finian’s Rainbow as an each-way wager, although apart from the age stat, he found it difficult to knock the chances of Sizing Europe. NL was keener on the chances of Finian’s Rainbow than MW, while also questioning why Henrietta Knight doesn’t give a chance to Somersby in this race. SC agreed, saying he’d run Somersby as it was a pretty poor race in truth, especially with the likes of Big Zeb towards the front of the market, who he felt was regressing badly from top level competition. He felt though that Evens or better about Sizing Europe was worth a bet. MW also added a possible match bet in this contest, that Finians Rainbow would beat Big Zeb.

Coral Cup

SC quoted a stat that no horse higher than 147 had won the event, which would rule out some of the big players in the market. He however, gave no specific advice about what to back, suggesting you should follow the money on the day of the race. MW would have liked Our Father if lining up, but he goes elsewhere and he gave a small mention to Third Intention after an impressive success in the Spirit Hurdle.

Fred Winter

PB claimed he’d have no ride in this contest, and stated that Vendor would be difficult to beat in any case. Vendor was the topic of much the discussion on this race, with reports of the Alan King horse working well alongside much higher rated animals in Balder Succes. Wayne Hutchinson claimed he couldn’t be beaten off a mark of 129, but SC hasten to add that the Fred Winter often has many well-handicapped animals involved that could go off at big prices. MW believed that Vendor could be a difficult ride and that might find him out at Cheltenham, even comparing him to the frustrating Olofi. MW put up Fire Fighter as an alternative to Vendor, especially as Alan King had an excellent trio of runners in this race last year and you shouldn’t be put off by any second-fiddle jockey bookings, although he was concerned with said horse’s jumping last time out. MW also suggested Musawama from Gordon Elliott’s yard, who’d appreciate the likely ground being out of Azamour and he won’t have been seen to the best of his ability running on softer surfaces.

Champion Bumper

SC said the market was wide open, but had heard reports that Fickle Fortune was “very special”, a comment also corroborated by MW. MW thought market principle Moscow Mannon wasn’t a very likely winner, putting up a suggestion in the John Ferguson trained New Years Eve as the best of the English horses. Both NL and PB liked Royal Guardsman after his Ascot win, and the former suggested he thinks this race will go to a British trained runner. A couple of audience members (including Twitter member “kingofbumpers”) suggested Cool George as their fancy, although PB thought that he wouldn’t be running.

Thursday

Jewson Chase

Peddlers Cross was confirmed for this race only a couple of days ago and all four of the panel weren’t too keen on his chances, PB being concerned with his jumping and his movement when last seen at Kempton, while SC was also worried with “why” they had decided the switch so late, did they just believe that Sprinter Sacre couldn’t be beaten? Coral’s were likely going to lay top price about Peddlers, with both PB and SC, liking the chances of Champion Court. MW liked Cristal Bonus, although he was unsure to how strong the Kempton race actually was, while putting good mentions in for Call the Police (ew) if the rain arrived. Taking a similar view to that of Coral, MW stated Peddlers Cross as his lay of the meeting.

Pertempts Hurdle

PB was adamant throughout that Sivola De Sivola had an excellent chance in this race, especially with the NRNB concession now in place as there are doubts to whether he’ll get in. From what you could see, he felt this horse had a huge shout and that this horse was a “serious talent” after an eye-catching run last time. MW thought Our Father had an excellent chance also, as he believed he’d go for this race and that Sweet My Lord also had claims. SC spoke about their being a big move for Jetson, but he obviously wasn’t too worried as he offered a special price of 10/1 on the night.

Ryanair Chase

PB liked Noble Prince in this race, and wasn’t really convinced by Riverside Theatre. SC thought otherwise, liking Riverside Theatre, especially with Medermit possibly going elsewhere. Great Endeavour was another where a fair case could be made, with MW not sure whether he could handle it at the top level. MW wasn’t particularly involved in this race, stating it was a hard one to call but if he had to, he’d go Noble Prince.

World Hurdle

Big Bucks is unbeatable according to the current odds but MW thought there was a chance he could be turned over, putting up Dynaste in opposition at 14/1, further adding that Big Bucks is getting on a bit now and sometime soon, bad luck in-running will fall his way. Dynaste was stated by MW as a decent trading proposition in-play, especially as he consistently trades much shorter. PB thought Oscar Whisky would stay the 3 mile trip, but still wouldn’t have enough to beat Big Bucks, although he was glad Oscar Whisky lined up as it added another plausible rival to the favourite. SC thought similar, suggesting Big Bucks should be 1/4, and his colleague in the audience James Knight suggesting 1/5 would be a more apt price.

Byrne Group Plate

PB had been reliably told that Salut Flo had worked very well on a racecourse gallop at Exeter recently, but obviously didn’t want to say who he had heard it from (it wasn’t Conor O’Farrel). MW jokingly suggested that they’d been working in the dark, possibly even “in Guernsey”. MW went on to say that he’d love Hunt Ball to win, especially as he enjoyed Anthony Knott as a character in racing, adding that he felt Crackaway Jack and Divers were possibly worthy of investment. SC also thought Divers was worth a bet, especially with AP McCoy on board. SC also said that Notus De La Tour would likely show in this contest, as one of his co-workers had a share in the horse and this was the target.

Kim Muir

MW thought Up The Beat was capable of running a big race, with NL thinking that Midnight Appeal was still under the radar after it’s win at Sandown. PB thought this was a weak race and Faasel was at least reliable. He also felt that Helpston was overpriced, merely due to the fact that it was Pam Sly training, rather than a big-name. SC reported the market as pretty quiet, and that he’d heard that Faasel was working well at home.

Friday

Triumph Hurdle

MW thought that Grumeti was bombproof before the scare today regarding his lameness, although it’s fully expected he’ll be fine for the Festival itself. He also liked Shadow Catcher, as his jockey had gone too soon last time out and he was expecting a better run. PB rides Baby Mix, who’s been brilliant but with one big blip. He needs good ground but the impression is that he’s still a serious horse, but Grumeti still stands as the one to beat. SC thought that punters shouldn’t get too adventurous with bigger priced selections, as those at the forefront of the market have a good record. NL went against this, feeling that Hollow Tree was too big a price, his defeat last time being excused as he went off too quick last time.

County Hurdle

MW thought an Imperial Cup/County Hurdle double for Ted Spread wasn’t impossible and thought the current price for the County Hurdle wasn’t a bad price NRNB. He also found the money for Snap Tie interesting, especially given the amount of time he’s been off the track. NL thought Citizenship “has a stone in hand”, whilst PB “wouldn’t swap Olofi” for any horse in the race, which created a debate regarding how genuine Olofi was. PB felt he was just a bit quirky, similar to Pigeon Island and that he felt he knew the right way to ride him. SC confirmed that Coral had laid loads for Snap Tie, but didn’t seem too concerned.

Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle

SC said the vibes were that this would be where Boston Bob would run, and that they’d been an interesting move for Mount Benbulben. Lovecen was seen to be a “really likeable type”, but still,the market was suggesting that Boston Bob would go off a short-price. MW thought that the 9/4 was worth taking now, and that sort of price would be one of the best bets of the festival. PB further stated his fondness of Sivola De Sivola, suggesting if he didn’t get in the Pertempts then he’d go here, feeling that wherever he went, he had the ability to run to a level of around a mark of 145.

Cheltenham Gold Cup

SC stated that Long Run had been eased out to 7/4, especially with plenty of negative vibes about and the fact that no-one was backing. Kauto Star had “rolled” today, which was a positive. PB wasn’t keen on the chances of Kauto Star at all, feeling (as a Gold Cup winning jockey) that preparation had to go perfectly for you to have a chance of winning the contest, and after Kauto’s fall (which he’d heard had been “awful”). He felt Long Run was a certainty barring accidents, and just hopes that Kauto Star returns from the race safe. MW also couldn’t have Kauto Star at all, “if he can’t win at 11, how can he at 12?” He thought Grand Crus was the best horse in the race, although PB disagreed and thought it would come too soon in his career. A chance was also given to Weird Al due to his impressive record when fresh, but NL and PB both thought Weird Al lacked resolution in a battle, which wouldn’t stand him in good stead for the race. Further questions by the audience led to What A Friend being mentioned as a possible each-way alternative, especially now Burton Port’s value had pretty much disappeared, and the likes of Quel Espirit being “an awful price”.

Foxhunters Chase

Both MW and PB both agreed that ex-handicappers such as Chapoturgeon who had raced at a high level shouldn’t be allowed to run here, as it should be a race for the smaller yards to compete in. NL and SC both liked Salsify.

Martin Pipe Conditional Hurdle

PB had the impression that there may be up to 10 runners from David Pipe, one put forward by SC being that of Street Entertainer. MW thought that the Bourne/Smad Place form-line was a good one, and he expected both to be fighting it out near the finish. NL ended the discussion on this race by saying that none of them really had a clue. PB hoped that Sivola De Sivola wouldn’t line up in this race (he obviously can’t ride him in this one).

Grand Annual

SC felt Toubab had a good chance here, but MW disagreed completely, saying that he wouldn’t get up the hill. He put forward Kumbeshwar instead. NL reiterated his belief that Shot From The Hip had a chance in whatever race he showed up in, also giving a fair chance to Ferdy Murphy’s De Boitron. PB confirmed this, saying he had spoke to Ferdy Murphy and had felt that De Boitron was his best chance of the entire Festival, and especially with the likes of Divers also running during the week, was a fairly strong comment to make.

Panel Charity Bets

Simon Clare – Champion Court in the Jewson

Paddy Brennan – Sivola De Sivola in Pertempts Hurdle

Nick Luck – Cristal Bonus in the Jewson

Mark Winstanley – Sire Des Champs in the RSA
 
Few notes from Leopardstown last night. This is my second preview to ever go to and the last.

A few laughs was about the height of it to be honest. Davy Russell was his usual witty self. Great character!

I found it interesting that Willie Mullins, when looking at The Arkle, said something along the lines of, “Looking through Sprinter Sacre’s form it’s all on flat tracks. Given his run in the supreme last year, i’d be concerned he may not get up the hill”.
Not saying I agree, just thought it was interesting from a trainer of his calibre.

Everyone else was basically saying he’ll win by half the track.

Anthony Bromley mentioned Montbazon had done a sparkling piece of work yesterday (he’d been on to Alan King).
Willie mentioned Midnight Game didn’t work well yesterday.

In the Triumph, Bromley seems to think Choc will get it wrong with Grumeti, and that Balder Success is the one (Wayne Hutchinson’s only ride for AK in the week, last time that happened was Oh Crick and it won)
Bromley mentioned he had bought 5 of the last 6 winners of the Triumph.
Willie hoped that he missed out on the winner this time around, as apparently there was a bidding war on for Darroun, and Willie had to dig deeper to get him in the sales.
Turns out it was Bromley that he was up against.

Tom Segal is big on Great Endeavour in the Ryanair.

Willie mentioned that Ruby done a piece of work on Boston Bob the other day, got off him and said to Willie “Whatever race you want”

Oh and Davy was very sweet on Shop DJ in the Mares race.
Granted he said she can’t beat Quevega, but said she’s an ew bet at a huge price. He seemed genuinely very confident on this one.
 
Leopardstown Cheltenham Preview Night.
Panel:
Tom Segal (TS)
Anthony Bromley (AB) (Bloodstock agent, close ties to Alan King yard)
Davy Russell (DR)
Paudie Hassett (PH) (Boylesports Rep)
Willie Mullins (WM)
Chair Jonathan Mullen (Irish Racing Post)

Good night, pity it started 50 mins late, had to miss the end so didn’t get the Gold Cup discussion, anyone who did could maybe post it:

Supreme novices
TS: Midnight Game ante post but WM said he disappointed in a piece of work today
DR said he might have to switch to Trifolium if Midnight Game doesn't show more
AB: Barry Geraghty will be riding Tetlami as AP will be on Darlan and he can't see Tetlami getting within a furlong of Darlan
AB fancies Montbazon, said he did a sparkling piece of work today

Arkle
WM - worry about Sprinter is all flat track form. Blackstairmountain has no chance of beating SS, would be happy with 4th
TS- Sprinter sacre a class apart, menorah to chase him home if gets jumping together
PH Sprinter Sacre can't lose
DR Sprinter Sacre the one too

Champion Hurdle
WM Hurricane Fly in fine form, might run Zaidpour in this too and could be good ew bet
AB Binocular in top order but hard to see HF beaten
TS Zarkandar impressed him winning Betfair Hurdle but he's too short. Oscars Well is ew alternative to HF
DR will take john McCririck to dinner and pay for it if HF is beaten
PH Binocular and Zarkandar have no chance, HF all the way

Cross Country
WM Uncle Junior only gets going after 3m so trip ideal
Paddy said Scotsirish going really well when carried out lto, trip small question mark. Both will love good ground
PH thinks A New Story is a terrific ew bet at 20/1. He was still going well when carried out in the Cross Country race in Dec. Age not a worry for him in this

Mares
Quevega jumped 12 hurdles earlier in the week, made 1 bad error but always does, in great order.
DR really likes Shop DJ in this, think she’s too big but probably one to back w/o Quevega
PH also likes Shop DJ w/o Quevega, said they’d took a lot of money on her this week

4m Novice Chase
WM Alee Garde is one he's really looking forward to in this, should go v well
PH also really likes Alee Garde in this, ticks all the boxes - NAP
DR - Nina will ride Four Commanders, is in good order
AB has a very strong fancy for Teaforthree, overpriced because comes from small yard

Neptune
TS said Derek O’Connor has said Simonsig is best he's ever been in
AB thinks Sous Les Cieux is interesting if runs
WM Make Your Mark worked well yesterday, hasn't lost faith in Sous Les Cieux and rates Simenon as good ew value at 33/1. Non-committal over Boston Bob target, though vibe was he would go for Albert B, but will wait for entries for Albert Bartlett to come out
DR Make Your Mark will prefer better ground
PH thinks Simonsig is all hype and is a bridal horse (one to lay) however DR disagrees

RSA Chase
DR tough choice between Sir Des Champs and First Lieutenant but Sir Des Champa may go Jewson
WM Sir des Champs in great form, Lambro in good form, might try Call The Police in this. Wouldnt commit on where Sir Des Champs would run
AB Grand Crus should go for this as won't see out trip in Gold Cup. Invictus might have run his big one in Reynoldstown this season and Bobs Worth could reverse form, thinks Join Together will stay on late
TS gives Join Together absolutely no chance! He likes First Lieutenant, Sir Des Champs is an unknown
PH agrees with TS on First Lieutenant, Sir Des Champs big loser for them since went NRNB

Queen Mother
AB Sizing Europe wins by default
TS all about Sizing Europe
DR Sizing Europe too but Colm Murphy is lethal at getting one ready for big day
WM can't see past Sizing Europe
PH says Sizing Europe gets beat too often and he's not forgiven him for losing the Champion Hurdle. Big Zeb ew better value at prices

Coral Cup
TS likes Get Me Out Of Here who will relish step up in trip, mentioned as one of best handicap bets of festival

Fred Winter
AB Vendor will win this!
WM thinks Gorgeous Sixty is handicapped for a big run in this. Was one of his ones to note in the handicaps at the festival

Champion Bumper
WM Champagne Fever did nice piece of work this week, though action may prefer softer. Expects Moscow Mannion should be thereabouts
DR likes Village Vic, a real improver
TS Royal Guardsman looked good last time out, could be another bumper winner for Tizzard after Cue Card in 2010
PH bookies race, Jezki could run well for Harrington and at bigger odds Sir Johnson is too big as he's won all 4 runs and was 8 lengths in front of Royal Guardsman when they met, could run well
AB would like New Years Eve but worried about a son of Motivator getting up hill. Looks like Ferguson might hold on to Population for Aintree bumper

Jewson
TS has heard not all well with Peddlers Cross and in his opinion will do well to finish!!!! Maguire doesn't seem happy with him, vibes not good. TS would be disappointed if First Lieutenant ran in this as he’s on him for RSA. Thinks Crystal Bonus could go off fav.
DR Peddlers is an unworthy fav as something must be wrong for plans to be changed so late in the day. He's hoping to have a ride in this (ideally on Sir Des Champs), with Peddlers not looking great, this looks wide open
AB King pleased with Solix and thinks he's got a great shout. AB thinks For Non Stop’s form is very decent, sure king is going to run Solix in this.

Pertemps
WM thinks Sweet My Lord has a strong chance in this

Ryanair
WM Quel Esprit goes for Gold Cup not this. Blazing Tempo more likely to run in this than Queen Mother as he think Blazing Tempo could win this but would only be playing for a place in Queen Mother.
DR would like to see Albertas Run go in this as he’ll get to ride Noble Prince who is a CD winner and form this season is good considering he's been running on softer than ideal. Better ground will suit son of Montjeu and see him run much better
TS prefers Medermit to Riverside Theatre of 1-2 in Ascot Chase and would really like to back Medermit in a match bet, thinks Riverside Theatre has little chance. Says he’s a massive fan of Great Endeavour, really likes his chances for a big run
AB says Rubi Light shouldn’t be fav, only 3rd in race in 2011 and this is stronger. Poquelin is a good ew bet at 16/1, only just behind Rubi Light last year and with strong pace assured he’ll be coming late. Said King appears to be 90% sure Medermit runs in this and not Gold Cup
PH not keen on Irish pair (Noble Prince & Rubi Light). Thinks Riverside Theatre is class horse and one to beat

World Hurdle
DR thinks Thousand Stars is a horse with enough talent to give Big Bucks a race, if he turns up in this. News from Gordon Elliot’s is that Carlito Brigante might go for Coral Cup (along with Toner D’Oudairies) instead of running in this.
WM will probably let Mourad go out in front as tracking Big Bucks didn’t work in Cleeve Hurdle but he won well over MDH when going from front last time. WM says Ruby most confident over Big Buck’s off all his rides at Festival. Does rate Thousand Stars highly though he seems to have Aintree hurdle as his main target and wouldn’t want him to have a hard race here, so maybe not one to back for this
TS Oscar Whisky and Thousand Stars would represent toughest test to date for big Bucks as they’re a classier pair than most he’s met but still can’t see past Big Bucks, who he considers the best horse in training.
AB Big Bucks wins, thinks Cleeve Hurdle was a v good race and Dynaste will likely be ridden for a place and could steal 2nd off Oscar Whisky/Thousand Stars who will be taking on BB for the win. King plans to run Smad Place in this but would need to start now to win it
PH thinks Oscar Whisky has plenty of class and if stays on bridle til late, can give BB a race. Also thinks So Young ew could run well as won all 3 this year well without beating much (WM said he probably would run him in this)

Triumph Hurdle
DR hates this race, everything beating each other, wants to move on asap
PH agrees with DR, very tricky, a bookies race. Thinks Daroun will run well but no major confidence in anything.
WM likes Daroun too, drying ground on day 4 will suit, chaser in the making
AB has purchased 5 of the last 6 winners of this, and has bought Pearl Swan, Grumeti and Balder Success. Think King/Choc has it wrong that Grumeti is the better of theirs, Balder Success is a better horse. Grumeti fine after scare and should be fit enough despite missing a few days training
TS agrees that jockey bookings are wrong on King’s two, Balder Success looks better horse. Vibes he’s getting is that Dodging Bullets is much better than Pearl Swan of Nicholls’ pair and he's most keen on Dodging bullets

County Hurdle
TS thinks Citizenship has more than a few pounds in hand in this, Harrington fancies him
WM Final Approach will run a big race again

Albert Bartlett
PH could see Boston Bob go off as short as 7/4 on day, assuming WM runs him in this, won’t say. However he prefers Mount Benbulben who wasn’t right last time and is the value to win this. Apparently flying at home and can’t see out of first 3.
TS really likes Mount Benbulben too, wasn’t right last time and is one of best bets of Festival!
DR thinks they’re crazy to think Mount Benbulben can beat Boston Bob. He’s got choice of two and will ride Sea Of Thunder on good and Ipsos Dui Berlais on softer.
AB Rocky Creek is best of English, Boston Bob probably go for this and win it. Thinks Irish 3m novice hurdlers are better than English
WM says Boston Bob is one of best he's ever sent to Cheltenham though may not run in this, Mount Benbulben’s tendency to jump right would worry him.

Gold Cup
Anyone fill us in on this??????

Martin Pipe Conditional Handicap hurdle
AB say owners plan to run Molotof in this and is fancied to run well under top weight

Others
TS picked It’s A Gimme out as one of Jonjo’s to go really well in which ever handicap he runs in
AB thinks Hold On Julio is Alan King’s best chance in a handicap chase (and Vendor in Fred Winter, best in handicap hurdle which he napped)

Revelations:
The really bad vibes around for Peddlers Cross mentioned by both DR and TS
TS & PH really fancying Mount Benbulben to beat Boston Bob (one of Segal’s bets of Festival)
Alee Garde clearly heavily fancied in 4 miler
AB thinks Vendor is a Fred Winter good thing
DR & PH both really liking a big run from Shop DJ in Mares Hurdle

Interesting outsiders
Bumper – Sir Johnson
Mares - Shop DJ
Cross Country - A New Story

Gold Cup
DR; Thinks long run is the most likely winner, burton port would be the bet for him, midnight chase has a sueek.
TS; midnight chase, likes the form from last year , would be his bet, squeek for the midnight club, long run will lose
PH; they gave 9/4 long run on the till, he said long run would lose
WM; small chance to quel esprit, likes long run

willies nap; boston bob
davy's nap; shop dj
segal's nap; citizenship [county hdl or martin pipe]
paudie's; allee garde
bromley; vendor
 
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I was at that event at Crowell in the Shepherds Crook. Dave Duggan was a hoot and in my view the most knowledgeable. Made the night really. He tells me he has been doing some political stuff in Helmund Province and Mogadishu. Wouldnt want to lose him from the horserace scene
 
Re: Shop DJ - Granted he said she can’t beat Quevega, but said she’s an ew bet at a huge price. He seemed genuinely very confident on this one
Click to expand...

Connections were driving around Dublin last week hoovering up any big prices they could find. I don't see it myself, but there is serious confidence behind this horse.
 
Million In Mind Cheltenham Preview


Date: Sunday 26th February 2012​



Venue: Ditcheat Village Hall, Ditcheat, Somerset.​



Panel: Anthony Bromley, David Minton (Highflyer Bloodstock) & Paul Nicholls.​



Day 1 - Tuesday

SUPREME NOVICE HURDLE

PN: HINTERLAND is entered in the Fred Winter, for which he would more than likely carry top weight and Harry Derham may well ride. However, his owners are keen to run in the Supreme. He is better than he showed at Cheltenham last time having got stuck in behind horses after the second last.
AB: MONTBAZON is Alan King’s number one and I feel he has a very good chance. Decent ground would suit him.
DM: My two against the field would be TETLAMI, who Nicky (Henderson) likes a lot, and MONTBAZON.

ARKLE TROPHY

PN: Sprinter Sacre tends to race very freely and I am hoping he may run himself into the ground. He is undoubtedly the one to beat if he settles but he may prefer a flat track. AL FEROF jumps very well and he will be staying on strongly at the finish. I hope he can outstay Sprinter Sacre.
DM: A.P. (McCoy) got off SPRINTER SACRE in last year’s Supreme NH and said he had an issue with his wind. That has been rectified and he is the one to beat. We are hoping Cue Card makes the running because that will be perfect for Sprinter Sacre.

CHAMPION HURDLE

PN: I am likely to run four (Brampour, Celestial Halo, Rock on Ruby & Zarkandar). I think Rock On Ruby is overpriced, especially as Cheltenham will suit him more than Kempton. He had a racecourse gallop at Wincanton (20th February) and went very well. However, my number one contender is ZARKANDAR.
AB: I am keen to take Hurricane Fly on and, I feel he could be vulnerable if the likes of Celestial Halo and Overturn ensure there is a strong gallop. There is loads of improvement in ZARKANDAR because he wasn’t at his best at Newbury and yet he still won.
DM: The wind operation has made a big difference to Binocular and I am expecting him to run very well. However, I fear he will have his work cut out to beat HURRICANE FLY.

Day 2 – Wednesday

NEPTUNE INVESTMENTS NOVICE HURDLE

PN: I won’t have a runner in this but Ruby (Walsh) is very keen on BOSTON BOB.
DM: Nicky (Henderson) is particularly sweet on SIMONSIG and feels he is one of his best chances of the whole week. I think BATONNIER will finish in the first four and I also like MAKE YOUR MARK, who I tried to buy and loved at the sales.

RSA CHASE

AB: Join Together looks fantastic and he should run well but, if GRANDS CRUS turns, up, he wins.
DM: Nicky was amazed by Bobs Worth’s run in the Reynoldstown at Ascot because he thought he would need it following his breathing operation. He should run well but I like INVICTUS and FIRST LIEUTENANT. The latter appears to have been trained for the race all season.

QUEEN MOTHER CHAMPION CHASE

PN: I am going to run KAUTO STONE. He was very free at Ascot last time and I think he will benefit from dropping back in trip. The likely strong pace will suit him and he could run well.
AB: I think SIZING EUROPE is the banker of the meeting. Lump on.
DM: I suspect they are going to ride Big Zeb slightly differently but SIZING EUROPE is the horse to beat.

FRED WINTER JUVENILE HURDLE

PN: It is possible Hinterland will run but I like ULCK DU LIN, who I feel is well treated off 130. I have purposely not run him since he arrived from France because I wanted to protect his mark. He did a very good piece of work at Wincanton with Rock On Ruby (20th February) and he is in the same mould as Sanctuaire who won this for us a couple of years ago.
AB: Alan King felt VENDOR was going to be his number one for the Triumph Hurdle before Christmas so he must be well handicapped off 129. He hasn’t run him since his win at Newbury in case his rating went up.

BUMPER

PN: I think ROYAL GUARDSMAN is the one to beat. He beat one of ours (Atlantic Roller) who I rate highly at Ascot, and the stable won the race a few years ago with Cue Card so they know what it takes.
AB: John Ferguson has had a very good season and NEW YEAR’S EVE looks as though he has been trained for the race.

Day 3 – Thursday

RYANAIR CHASE

PN: Poquelin runs and he has an each-way chance having run well twice in the race in the past. I think SOMERSBY will run well.
AB: Rubi Light must be respected having finished third in the race last year but he may need soft ground. I think Somersby is a stone better horse at Ascot than anywhere else and I am not convinced the track will be ideal for Riverside Theatre. MEDERMIT would have a good each-way chance but his owners are favouring running in the Gold Cup. I think NOBLE PRINCE will go close because previous Festival and course form is very important.
DM: I like NOBLE PRINCE and RIVERSIDE THEATRE.

WORLD HURDLE

PN: BIG BUCK’S looked great and I couldn’t be happier with his preparation. However, I have followed Oscar Whisky’s career throughout and he is a very good horse. He has got speed and class and is a big danger.

Day 4 – Friday

TRIUMPH HURDLE

PN: Ranjaan is improving all the time but PEARL SWAN is my number one. I think it is between him and Grumeti and there is obviously very little between the pair but my horse has improved a lot since his last run at Cheltenham. Don’t discount DODGING BULLETS though. Quite hot headed when he arrived from Ireland, he hasn’t been the easiest to train but there is a lot of improvement in him. I was delighted with his run in the Dovecote Novice Hurdle at Kempton behind Grumeti and he isn’t that far behind Pearl Swan, judged on their homework. He is an interesting contender.
AB: I don’t think the Irish juveniles are as strong this year. PEARL SWAN has a good turn of foot and Alan King is adamant GRUMETI is his number one. BALDER SUCCES shouldn’t be underestimated even though he may be the apparent ‘second string.’ He would prefer some cut in the ground though.
DM: I like BALDER SUCCES who has looked very impressive, especially at Ascot last time.




GOLD CUP

PN: KAUTO STAR has looked as good as ever this season and goes there with a leading chance. I am not convinced Long Run has trained on this season and, while Burton Port ran very well in the Denman Chase, he had been off for a long time and I am sure Nicky would have had him pretty straight that day. I am not sure he will be able to repeat it second time back.
AB: I wasn’t disappointed with LONG RUN at Newbury. The longer trip will suit him at Cheltenham because he was outspeeded at both Haydock and Kempton. Burton Port had been working the house down before he ran at Newbury so it was a very good performance by Long Run to concede ten pounds.

FOXHUNTERS’

PN: CHAPOTURGEON has had a lot of problems since winning the Jewson Novice Chase at the Festival in 2009. He qualified for the Foxhunters after winning impressively at Newbury and then following up in a point-to-point last time. Richard Barber’s grandson Jack rides him very well and, if he gets good ground, he will have a massive chance. A lot of people have suggested he won’t stay but he has never run beyond two miles six. I don’t think he will have a problem with the trip. The ground is the key to him.
DM: MONTERKY TUNKERTY was impressive when winning at Warwick and I think he is a very interesting runner.

FESTIVAL HANDICAPPERS TO FOLLOW

Paul Nicholls:

SONOFVIC – Pertemps Final (Thursday) – He has been saved for this once we decided to go back over hurdles. He will love the decent ground and I think he is well handicapped.

TED SPREAD – Imperial Cup at Sandown (Saturday 10th), County Hurdle & Martin Pipe HH (Friday) – he reminds me a lot of Desert Quest, who won the County Hurdle in 2006. A strong traveller, he wants good ground and he is on a nice mark. This has been the plan since winning at Taunton last time.

ULCK DU LIN – Fred Winter Juvenile Hurdle (Tuesday) – see earlier notes.

Anthony Bromley:

MOLOTOF – Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle (Friday) – he has won three out of three this season including a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Ascot last time. Rated 145, he will run off 11st 12lb but it will be narrow weight band.

David Minton:

OPEN HEARTED – Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle (Friday) – A progressive horse, he has won four out of five with his only defeat coming at Uttoxeter when he fell on his hurdles debut. He goes there with a good each-way chance.

Before the Preview, Paul Nicholls gave his thoughts on the following during the parade of his stars:

AL FEROF (Arkle Trophy): “He won the Supreme Novice Hurdle last year and, having been flat out all the way, he flew up the hill and I am hoping he will do the same in the Arkle this time. He has had a good year winning twice before finishing third in the Victor Chandler Chase at Ascot. The experience he gained there will stand him in good stead. He has improved a lot since then and it is all about jumping at speed in the Arkle. To win an Arkle, you need a horse who stays two and a half miles and he will be running on strongly up the hill again. Sprinter Sacre will be difficult to beat but our horse is not without a chance.”

BIG BUCK’S (World Hurdle): “Once again, he has had a great season winning all three of his starts and his winning run has stretched to 15 races. Even though he won the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham in January, I don’t think he was at his very best because there were a few horses in the yard under the weather at the time. However, he has bloomed since and looks much better in his coat. As he has got older, he has needed more work to get fit but he goes there with an outstanding chance. I have great respect for Oscar Whisky though and I fear he could be his toughest opponent to date. He has loads of speed but Big Buck’s forte is his stamina and we will ensure it is a thorough test.”

BRAMPOUR (Champion Hurdle): “He goes for the Champion Hurdle and will be ridden by Harry Derham, who has done such a good job on him this season. He always worked very well at home last year but disappointed on the track. However, he had a wind operation and the summer off and he came back a different horse. Successful in a Listed Handicap at Ascot, he then won the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham in November. Seventh in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury last time, he wasn’t beaten far and certainly didn’t have a hard race. The way the Champion Hurdle will be run will suit him and he could grab a place. Decent ground will be ideal for him.”

CRISTAL BONUS (Jewson Novice Chase): “A very decent horse who Anthony Bromley tried to buy in the past. Fortunately, he ended up here anyway after Mr Geffen bought him and we gave him a good break. He made a noise when we started working him so he underwent a breathing operation in September. Twice a winner over fences, he jumped brilliantly at Chepstow and then won the Pendil Novice Chase at Kempton. He jumped to his right that day and will be much better going left-handed at Cheltenham. We intended running him in the rescheduled Scilly Isles Novice Chase at Newbury but he had an infection in his near hind leg. Then, the weekend before the Pendil, he worked brilliantly on the Saturday but was hopping lame afterwards. Thankfully, by the Tuesday he was fine and the rest is history. I think he will be a smart horse over three miles next season but I am expecting him to run very well in the Jewson. All being well, he will run at Aintree after that.”

HARRY THE VIKING (National Hunt Chase): “Unbeaten in four runs this season, two of which have been over hurdles and two over fences, he runs in the four mile chase and will be ridden by Will Biddick. I have liked him ever since he won a maiden point-to-point and he does stay particularly well. We have purposely kept him fresh since his last run at Doncaster and I think he has a leading chance at the Festival. A laid back individual, I have been very pleased with his preparation.”

JOIN TOGETHER (RSA Chase): “He goes for the RSA Chase and we have purposely kept him fresh because he goes well after a break. Unlucky when falling on his chasing debut at Chepstow, he won his next couple of starts at Cheltenham. He is a very good jumper and he stays well and I think he will be an awesome horse for the good staying chases next season. In an ideal world, he would have preferred it if the race had been run on the New course at Cheltenham because it places more emphasis on stamina. Having said that, I think the ground will be slower on the Old course, which will be in his favour. We had considered aiming him at the four miler but he is better than that and deserves a crack at the RSA Chase. I think he will run very well.

KAUTO STAR (Gold Cup): “He looks stunning and you wouldn’t know he was a twelve year old. When he came back into work in July, he looked in great shape and he appears a better horse this season than last. Last year, he had a few minor issues making a noise and little bleeds but this season everything has gone to plan winning the Betfair Chase at Haydock and then following up in the King George. Ruby (Walsh) said he showed a tremendous turn of foot at Kempton and Long Run couldn’t go with him. He then idled in front. I think he goes to Cheltenham with a big chance and I couldn’t be happier with him. The fact Denman isn’t running is an advantage to him because Denman always ensured it was a proper stamina test. I hope he gets decent ground.” Please note: Kauto Star fell whilst schooling and his participation has, at the time of writing, yet to be confirmed.

PEARL SWAN (Triumph Hurdle): “Despite the fact there is very little between him, Grumeti and Baby Mix, I feel he should be favourite for the Triumph Hurdle. Anthony Bromley bought him in November and he won nicely on his debut at Taunton. We then ran him in the Finesse Hurdle at Cheltenham and I told Ruby (Walsh) to take his time and see how the race developed. If he finished fourth or fifth then we would have prepared him for the Fred Winter at the Festival but he took off after the second last and stormed up the hill. Unfortunately, he lost the race in the stewards’ room but we knew there was a lot of improvement to come. We can improve his jumping and I think he is a really nice horse. I asked Ruby which was the best juvenile on either side of the Irish Sea and he said Pearl Swan. I think he has got a very good chance.”

POQUELIN (Ryanair or Gold Cup): “He has become harder to train as he has got older. Disappointing in the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby on his reappearance, he stayed overnight and I don’t think it suited him because he was sick afterwards. He ran much better at Cheltenham last time in a competitive handicap under top weight finishing second. That run has put him spot on and, all being well, he will run in the Ryanair Chase for a third time. We have given him an entry in the Gold Cup as well but he is only likely to run in that if something happened to one of the principals and if the ground turned up very quick.”

PROSPECT WELLS (Supreme Novice Hurdle): “He goes for the Supreme NH and he has taken well to jumping winning at Chepstow and Newbury and finishing a close second in the Graded novice at the Paddy Power meeting. Things have unfortunately gone wrong since because we ran him back too quick in the Ladbroke Hurdle at Ascot even though he finished fourth. He then ran no sort of race in the Tolworth Hurdle on heavy ground but he was found to have a trapped epiglottis, which basically meant he couldn’t breathe. A vet from Ireland sorted him out and, within ten days, he was back in work and his breathing has improved a lot since. He is the forgotten horse of the race and, if he encounters his favoured good ground, he could run very well.”

ROCKY CREEK (Albert Bartlett NH): “A full brother to the ill-fated Tell Massini, he is a great big strong chasing type who will be very much one to follow over fences next season. Paul Barber saw him win his Irish point to point and liked him. He wasn’t fully wound up when finishing second on his Rules debut at Exeter but hasn’t stopped improving since winning in good style at Doncaster in a Grade 2 NH. Although he lacks a bit of experience, I think he has a leading chance in the Albert Bartlett Novice Hurdle.”

Interestingly, Rocky Creek is positioned in one of the boxes at the top end of the yard adjacent to Denman and Kauto Star suggesting he is held in the highest regard at Ditcheat.

ZARKANDAR (Champion Hurdle): “Unbeaten in four starts over hurdles, it was a very good performance to win the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury on his reappearance. A few horses in the yard were coughing at the time and he had a dirty nose the day after his win. He had a dose of antibiotics and is back in full work now. Improving day by day, he has made a rapid progress and I feel he is a live danger to Hurricane Fly. Ruby (Walsh) felt he hit the front too soon at Newbury and he will be at his best in a strongly run race galloping up that hill.”

DENMAN’s tendon problem had heeled up and he is likely to go out into a field during the summer, all being well, with MASTER MINDED. In great form at home, he will start doing plenty of walking after Cheltenham.
 
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