Cheltenham Gold Cup 2015

The list of horses within sufficient speed to win a King George and enough stamina to win a Gold Cup, is pretty short.....and they've generally been pretty exceptional animals (maybe Long Run apart).

I don't think Silviniaco Conti is a flat-track-bully as some have suggested, and I think he is probably the best horse in the race by some way.........but I don't think he quite gets home in a strongly-run race over a stiff 3m2f. His current price is based on how well he won at Kempton, and doesn't reflect his vulnerability at this trip, and I will be looking to place-lay him on the day, if he is still around the 11/8 mark.
 
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Silviniaco Conti has raced 9 times in excess of 3m: won 4, finished strongly in 2, fell once, was outpaced at Wetherby and in last year's GC = where's the evidence he won't stay?
 
Including the mildmay two years back as a novice. I don't get that the non staying argument at all. He's hardly been at the end of his tether in any of these victories either
 
reet hard said:
Silviniaco Conti has raced 9 times in excess of 3m: won 4, finished strongly in 2, fell once, was outpaced at Wetherby and in last year's GC = where's the evidence he won't stay?
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Last year's Gold Cup.

I'm afraid I don't buy the theory that a King George winner gets "outpaced" on Good ground by an RSA winner (Lord Windermere) or a horse like On His Own, who has done all of his steeplechase winning at 3m+ on Soft or Heavy ground (except for a novice win at Ayr 4 years ago) - no matter what the race sectionals might indicate.
 
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Grasshopper said:
Last year's Gold Cup.

I'm afraid I don't buy the theory that a King George winner gets "outpaced" on Good ground by an RSA winner (Lord Windermere) or a horse like On His Own, who has done all of his steeplechase winning at 3m+ on Soft or Heavy ground (except for a novice win at Ayr 4 years ago) - no matter what the race sectionals might indicate.
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the race sectionals..if you take the view SC doesn't stay..actually back you up

because if its not possible that LW or OHO have outspeeded him then the only other explanation is he didn't see the race out

the fact is they were finishing faster than many GC's..so it wasn't a full test at the trip..so with your view it could be argued that if they do go a strong pace this year..then SC has no chance of getting home

its all about how you interpret the horses involved..the finishing speed tells you absolutely that from 3 out they had more petrol left than a proper pace would have allowed

and if that was the case and LW or OHO haven't actually got tactical pace as you say..then SC just hasn't stayed..or he would have beaten two slow coaches like those two..your view

The problem i have with that view is that LW last time out at Leopardstown ...looked to have plenty of tactical pace when getting into the race at 2 out..and then got outstayed late on..at 3 miles?...that doesn't look a stamina type of horse imo
 
reet hard said:
Then you're accepting Bobs Worth didn't stay either, Grassy? :D
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The going is what did for Bobs Worth, imo, reet. He's a grinder - that's how he won his Gold Cup - and he was one-paced on the ground, rather than not staying.

To be fair, my immediate impression - and I mean, immediately they crossed the line - of last season's Gold Cup, was that SC and BW must have hit a patch of false ground by the rail, as the others came up the centre of the course. It was a real "WTF just happened there?" moment. Further analysis with the benefit of replays etc suggest to me that SC failed to get home fully, and BW got done for toe after the last.

Right or wrong, that's how I view it.
 
Bobsworth does need a slog..ground is key imo to him...he is a guaranteed stayer,,but was according to the jock..having to go too fast for himin the race..hence he needs them running slower..which they do in slow ground..he is easy to weigh up

i still think LW is a doubtful 3m2f stayer and will get found out in a truly run affair.

we will know so much more in a while..but then it will be after the race..so too late :)
 
That last GC BW won was a grueller of a race.

Cannot fathom him regaining his crown n mater what nicky/Geraghty say.

EC when you say you have doubts over LW staying 3m 2f, do you really mean he is one who could get taken off his feet with a steady pace and therefore unlikely to contend at business end?

fwiw have heard the national is his aim next term
 
granger said:
That last GC BW won was a grueller of a race.

Cannot fathom him regaining his crown n mater what nicky/Geraghty say.

EC when you say you have doubts over LW staying 3m 2f, do you really mean he is one who could get taken off his feet with a steady pace and therefore unlikely to contend at business end?

fwiw have heard the national is his aim next term
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yes doubts over LW staying 3m2f in a truly run race..unlike last years

if he was a stayer then he wouldn't have folded up like he did last time when looking the winner two out

no chance in a national imo
 
Grasshopper said:
The going is what did for Bobs Worth, imo, reet. He's a grinder - that's how he won his Gold Cup - and he was one-paced on the ground, rather than not staying.

To be fair, my immediate impression - and I mean, immediately they crossed the line - of last season's Gold Cup, was that SC and BW must have hit a patch of false ground by the rail, as the others came up the centre of the course. It was a real "WTF just happened there?" moment. Further analysis with the benefit of replays etc suggest to me that SC failed to get home fully, and BW got done for toe after the last.

Right or wrong, that's how I view it.
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In my view, BW and SC are very similar types, Grass. Both classy jumpers but 'grinders' in the sense that neither has a real change of gear.
PN's recognised this and fitting the blinds to SC and racing him more agressively has enabled him to overcome his 'slows' to a great degree this season. but I'd be fairly sure that it was lack of acceleration, rather than stamina, that caused both the same problem in last year's GC.
Maybe Nicky will try the headgear on BW this year, though - with the likely strong pace - it's doubtful either will really need it.
 
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Maybe you're right, reet - not long to wait now until we know for sure, one way or the other.
 
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PN reckons he stays

I think the biggest certainty in the Gold Cup is rather than Noel Fehily restraining S Conti he'll go for home a very long way out.

His biggest asset is his mid race pace and remember his trainer says he definitely stays....He was a sitting duck last season going to the last but he's still run on well enough and kept distance between himself and BW so he's probably right.

If he is ridden the same way as last year he's sure to be picked off again by those who find more in a finish than he does.

Hunt him round then do a Denman and use his mid race speed and they will be dropping off like flies behind him.

PN's already done it in the King George by making all and I think he'll do the same again here but drop him until they go back out in the country,for the last time....then he'll hit the front.

Could be wrong but he already tried it one way that never worked and no one expected him to jump off and make all at Kempton but he did.
 
The only chance they have with SC is to let him go and try and burn them off. I've just never taken to the horse.
 
I'm also of the opinion SC stays. He's the class horse in the race as all agree. The only thing that tends to beat class is a falsely run race. People are bringing up Bobs Worths win as a slog but which horse was travelling the best coming down the hill? Of course we don't know what might have happened but he looked like the winner before falling.

I'm surprised PFN hasn't entered a pace setter. I doubt Sam Winner is in there to do that so maybe Coneygree turning up would be the best thing for SC. That might be the deciding factor for whether I back him or not.
 
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If conygree does turn up i'll have to back him...really taken with him and think he's a cert for the RSA.But they reckon he is fragile and may not handle that many races. That may tempt them to have a dash at the GC
 
I wouldn't give Coneygree any chance myself. He should run in the RSA. Though he'll just tee the race up for someone else.
 
Digger said:
If conygree does turn up i'll have to back him...really taken with him and think he's a cert for the RSA.But they reckon he is fragile and may not handle that many races. That may tempt them to have a dash at the GC
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Reading some of the previews plenty indicating that is the reason the are leaning towards the GC but the market suggests otherwise
 
Digger said:
If conygree does turn up i'll have to back him...really taken with him and think he's a cert for the RSA.But they reckon he is fragile and may not handle that many races. That may tempt them to have a dash at the GC
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Reading some of the previews plenty indicating that is the reason the are leaning towards the GC but the market suggests otherwise
 
On bare ratings, Coneygree has as good a chance as anything (assuming rightly or wrongly that SC won't show his best form) but unless they feel he won't improve again next season he should be targeting the RSA (in which he would pish up).

However, he is older than your average novice and they might feel they will never have him better than he is now so this might be his one and only shot at glory.
 
The shot at glory is relative.

A win in the RSA is better than being unplaced in the Gold Cup if it's glory they want, and if they think he's good enough he surely would walk the RSA, whereas his chances against the best around are surely massively diminished.

If they run in the Gold Cup, and are unplaced, fall, or the horse comes to any harm they quite rightly are going to come in for serious criticism.

Any other decision than running in the RSA is plain stupid.
 
Carvills Hill,Gloria Victis & Beef or Salmon were three high profile novices to run in the Gold Cup since -everybody knows the script.
 
To be fair, Dorans Pride ran in the race as a movie and finished a decent third (behind Mr Mulligan, I think).

If connections think Coneygree is good enough to have a chance in the Gold Cup, then they really should be running in - and winning - the RSA. It's a no-brainer really.
 
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