Cheltenham Gold Cup 2015

Cards on the table time for me.




Silviniaco Conti :- Has ruled the roost so far this season winning both the Betfair Chase and the King George. According to PN he’s better than ever and will conquer the Cheltenham Hill this time round.

There are a few reasons why he probably won’t win. He was according to PN in fantastic form going into the race last year and there’s absolutely no proof on paper he has improved.
He came to the last one of a line of 4 horses last year and came out 4/4 and blatantly didn’t get up the hill. He came out 2 weeks later and won at Aintree but again like Kempton on a flat track.
The King George played to his strengths, Cheltenham does not and the opposition is much tougher. NOT FOR ME

Holywell: Thought probably not quite good enough he stormed home in a novice handicap at the meeting last year. Stepped up to Group 1 company at Aintree beating Don Cossack 10 lengths and immediately punters thought turned to the Gold Cup.
Looking back at Aintree nothing seemed to run to their mark. And Don Cossack at that time was rated a stone below his current mark having improved markedly since.
The big question has to be has Holywell improved enough to win a Gold Cup and the simple answer is, on paper, no. Sure to run well. Can’t say I’d have put R McL up but loyalty prevails but for me he’s got a good ew chance at best.
Many Clouds: Has kept improving all season but needs to improve a bit more to win this. A bit of cut will help him no end but even if he doesn’t get it should run really well. If he gets the run of the race not many would out battle him up the hill and definitely one for the short list.
Bobsworth: Said to be in great nick he’s the joker in the pack and one to ignore at your peril,. Won at the festival 3 times already including the 2013 Gold cup he was beaten only 4 lengths last year. Again he’d be at his best on Good to soft or soft and if he gets his ground could just about win it again.
Lord Windermere; Last year’s winner and has been without a shadow of a doubt trained for this race and this race only. His last run in the Hennessy was a classic bit of get him right on the day riding by Davy Russell. Unfancied in the market and no doubt still having plenty condition on him Russell stormed through to take up the running at the 2nd last despite the fact he knew that was not the way to ride him…..you can bet that got rid of any cobwebs and he leave that for a mile behind him on the big day.

Road to Riches. Never ran at Cheltenham has improved this season but will probably find this all too much for him. His price is based on the fact he beat On His Own but Sam Winner finished a close 3rd that day I doubt if the form is worth much. Can’t see him winning.

Carlingford Lough: Wouldn’t win a Gold Cup if he set of now but AP has won big races with lesser animals. Will be a false price on the day but will take very bit of AP skilland strength to win this……def NOT FOR ME

Congree: He’s a nice horse but doesn’t belong in a Gold Cup. A year on and some improvement and maybe then he could pull off an all the way win but if he goes this year all he’ll do is make the pace for the rest. No Chance

Smad Place: Not many shrewder trainers than Alan King he could easily spring a surprise. Classy animal we haven’t seen the best of yet. A few bob ew wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world.

The Great Bolster: Trained by one of the best trainers around in David Bridgewater he’s sure to be spot on if he turns up. A clear round and a couple of these running below their best and he’ll be bang there again. Would shock some if he actually won the race but not all.

Winner: Lord Windermere Danger: Many Clouds; Best EW: The Great Bolster
 
Conti is about half a stone better than this lot. The more I watch his defeat last year the more I think things just went against him. I don't think he got the best ride and I still believe he'd have won if Lord Windermere hadn't had company on the other side of the track.

Can't have Bobs Worth. Even Henderson isn't confident which is a terrible sign. Road To Riches is undoubtedly the best of the Irish but has never ran at Cheltenham before. He's also about to undertake his 7th run of the season and his running style doesn't really leave anything in the tank. Many Clouds hasn't even won a Grade 1. I'd love to know how long ago a Gold Cup winner had that profile.

Holywell is the main danger to Conti IMO. His performances at this time of year are encouraging, both over fences and hurdles at the top level. Think I've missed the price on him though.

1st Conti 2nd Holywell 3rd Road To Riches
 
I think the consensus is that Silviniaco Conti has the best form so far, not counting Bobs Worth's old form.

However, I was confident that Wayward Lad was so much better than his opponents that he could find the hill a problem and still win. I have no intention of making the same painful mistake.

The difference, for me, is that SC isn't as far ahead of the field as some of the commercial ratings people have him and, as I said, if Bobs Worth were to rediscover his best old form SC won't get near him.

I think you also have to wonder if SC has any improvement in him whereas there are plenty of reasons to expect further improvement from a number of his opponents.

With 50/1 Holywell and 20/1 Road To Riches sitting snugly in the portfolio, I'm pretty cool about the race. It wouldn't bother me to lay off both for two bets to no risk.

Then there's Bobs Worth and Lord Windermere, both of which still interest me.

And no shortage of others with shouts, either for the win or place: Many Clouds, Carlingford Lough, Sam Winner, to name just three.

If the ground is OK, I can see The Giant Bolster yet again being the key marker for the form. He invariably runs his best in this race without being good enough to win but he does hold down last year's form. Think how far he was beaten in the race before and I can same him taking the same kind of doing this time. His RPRs for the race have been 170, 168 and 170. In the first he was under three lengths behind Synchronised; in the third he was under a length behind LW; in the middle - any reason why shouldn't have run to the same rating? - he was 16 lengths behind Bobs Worth.

One to digest.
 
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Can't have Bobs Worth. It took a remarkable horse in Kauto Star to regain the crown and I don't see BW as that. I've read quotes from NH recently where he thinks that they've bottomed BW. If the trainer can't even be optimistic then I certainly can't.

Lord Windermere is a different matter. He had no better or worse preps for this race last year and he's only 6 points shorter. That comes down to what most perceive as a fortunate win but his form around Chelts is second to none (well maybe BW!). I'm looking for the winner though and I just can't see him as a 2 time champ.

The argument above to write off BW could easily be leveled at SC. He's had his chance and hasn't taken it. However, unlike BW he's held his form and I'm willing to give him another chance.
 
Tanlic said:
Cards on the table time for me

Silviniaco Conti :- Has ruled the roost so far this season winning both the Betfair Chase and the King George. According to PN he’s better than ever and will conquer the Cheltenham Hill this time round.

There are a few reasons why he probably won’t win. He was according to PN in fantastic form going into the race last year and there’s absolutely no proof on paper he has improved.
He came to the last one of a line of 4 horses last year and came out 4/4 and blatantly didn’t get up the hill. He came out 2 weeks later and won at Aintree but again like Kempton on a flat track.
The King George played to his strengths, Cheltenham does not and the opposition is much tougher. NOT FOR ME

Holywell: Thought probably not quite good enough he stormed home in a novice handicap at the meeting last year. Stepped up to Group 1 company at Aintree beating Don Cossack 10 lengths and immediately punters thought turned to the Gold Cup.
Looking back at Aintree nothing seemed to run to their mark. And Don Cossack at that time was rated a stone below his current mark having improved markedly since.
The big question has to be has Holywell improved enough to win a Gold Cup and the simple answer is, on paper, no. Sure to run well. Can’t say I’d have put R McL up but loyalty prevails but for me he’s got a good ew chance at best.
Many Clouds: Has kept improving all season but needs to improve a bit more to win this. A bit of cut will help him no end but even if he doesn’t get it should run really well. If he gets the run of the race not many would out battle him up the hill and definitely one for the short list.
Bobsworth: Said to be in great nick he’s the joker in the pack and one to ignore at your peril,. Won at the festival 3 times already including the 2013 Gold cup he was beaten only 4 lengths last year. Again he’d be at his best on Good to soft or soft and if he gets his ground could just about win it again.
Lord Windermere; Last year’s winner and has been without a shadow of a doubt trained for this race and this race only. His last run in the Hennessy was a classic bit of get him right on the day riding by Davy Russell. Unfancied in the market and no doubt still having plenty condition on him Russell stormed through to take up the running at the 2nd last despite the fact he knew that was not the way to ride him…..you can bet that got rid of any cobwebs and he leave that for a mile behind him on the big day.

Road to Riches. Never ran at Cheltenham has improved this season but will probably find this all too much for him. His price is based on the fact he beat On His Own but Sam Winner finished a close 3rd that day I doubt if the form is worth much. Can’t see him winning.

Carlingford Lough: Wouldn’t win a Gold Cup if he set of now but AP has won big races with lesser animals. Will be a false price on the day but will take very bit of AP skilland strength to win this……def NOT FOR ME

Congree: He’s a nice horse but doesn’t belong in a Gold Cup. A year on and some improvement and maybe then he could pull off an all the way win but if he goes this year all he’ll do is make the pace for the rest. No Chance

Smad Place: Not many shrewder trainers than Alan King he could easily spring a surprise. Classy animal we haven’t seen the best of yet. A few bob ew wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world.

The Great Bolster: Trained by one of the best trainers around in David Bridgewater he’s sure to be spot on if he turns up. A clear round and a couple of these running below their best and he’ll be bang there again. Would shock some if he actually won the race but not all.

Winner: Lord Windermere Danger: Many Clouds; Best EW: The Great Bolster
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After all that, no mention of the fu**ing winner.
 
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EC1 said:
i'm not happy about it mesen..Mr Mole looks like being reassessed by me..another stick for Tanlic to beat me with
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Not at all EC I have resigned myself to the fact that by the time they get to the top of the hill and Sprinter Sacre is cantering all over the top of them you'll come round to my way of thinking :lol:

God forbid!!!
 
Apologies Frankel but I can't be having a 6 year old unproven over the trip who clearly loves soft ground.

Mill House did it as did Long run but Mill House was amazing as a young horse and Long Run had bags of experience under his belt.

I can't even bring myself to back him ew. Can't see him knocking 10 bells out of him to get a place

If Mullins does sends him he'll be looked after and my worry is at the first sign of trouble Ruby will ease off the pedal.
 
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Digger said:
1. Djakadem 2. Bobs Worth 3. On His Own. tricast nailed.
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i would bet against any of those finishing in the first three. First is too raw and last two are surely not going to match or improve on previous. It is a race for horses at their absolute peak

chronic. yes it happened last year but it was a nortons coin race and LW will not be around in thirty years time when we get the next freak
 
I know it was only a prep for the Gold Cup but I didn't like the way LW was readily seen off. Am of the opinion his chance depends on the pace of the race, or the lack of it. Loved his Durkan run and that nearly made me a believer. That race along with his last does tell me that a proper stamina test would be against him imo.
 
TheBear said:
Lord Windermere is a different matter. He had no better or worse preps for this race last year and he's only 6 points shorter.
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He was 40/1 in the morning last year and 9/1 place-only.

Edit:

Hang on, I need to check that - I might be thinking of Synchronised a couple of years ago.

2nd edit:

Yes, I'm half-right. LW was 40/1 in the morning but the 9/1 was w/o SC & BW.
 
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clivex said:
i would bet against any of those finishing in the first three. First is too raw and last two are surely not going to match or improve on previous. It is a race for horses at their absolute peak

chronic. yes it happened last year but it was a nortons coin race and LW will not be around in thirty years time when we get the next freak
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What odds clive? ;-)
 
Frankel said:
I know it was only a prep for the Gold Cup but I didn't like the way LW was readily seen off. Am of the opinion his chance depends on the pace of the race, or the lack of it. Loved his Durkan run and that nearly made me a believer. That race along with his last does tell me that a proper stamina test would be against him imo.
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The fact it was a very obvious prep race should tell you him being brushed aside means nothing.

The way Russell shot to the front and used up what the horse had left only one thing was going to happen and he'd know that.

No harm in trying and probably did the horse the world of good.

How often do you see a Gold Cup winner go of at 10/1 5/1 and 7/1 in his next 3 races.

Everybody and there uncle knows he hasn't been off a yard (Fitness wise) this season

He may not win again but there will be no brushing him aside easily unless S Conti gets up the hill and humiliates the lot of them
 
Tanlic said:
The way Russell shot to the front and used up what the horse had left only one thing was going to happen and he'd know that.
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Should I be spooked?

This is almost word-for-word part of the conversation I had that evening on the phone (with my brother who had backed Carlingford Lough that day and months before for the GC).
 
Lord Windermere is dependant on them not going too fast..i cannot see Nichols allowing that after what happened last year..he will tell the jock if there is little pace..get to the front and make some..its the only way SC can win..and if done ..will scupper such as speedy LW. Last year the pace lulled a lot for a long section in the middle of the race..without that lull LW wouldn't have won

the pace on the day will dictate what wins between these two horses..then throw in what the rest want pace wise......i'll wager its a decent pace and that doubtful trip getters will struggle..whatever wins this year will need to be a real stayer imo
 
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Agree with that completely EC, with a circuit to go last year LW was getting scrubbed along but they eased off and allowed him back in.
 
yes it really needed an injection of middle race pace Tiggers to make it a proper race..you would think Nicholls will realise whats needed this year..then again..i'm not that bothered as i won't back him anyway..but surely PN will know if they don't go the pace this year that will be against SC..he certainly made sure the KG was a test..so I can see a similar tactic here if nowt goes the required mph
 
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EC1 said:
Lord Windermere is dependant on them not going too fast..i cannot see Nichols allowing that after what happened last year..he will tell the jock if there is little pace..get to the front and make some..its the only way SC can win..and if done ..will scupper such as speedy LW. Last year the pace lulled a lot for a long section in the middle of the race..without that lull LW wouldn't have won

the pace on the day will dictate what wins between these two horses..then throw in what the rest want pace wise......i'll wager its a decent pace and that doubtful trip getters will struggle..whatever wins this year will need to be a real stayer imo
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LW is an RSA winner so won't be short of pace. If anything, the lull in pace last season worked against him. I think it put him to sleep and he just needed waking up. He was ridden too far out of his ground and then had to make his ground while the others were quickening. It was a bad ride and won't happen again. Despite that, he still won. He's a few pounds better than the bare form, is entitled to improve again and deserves the utmost respect.

However, it is very clearly a much stronger race in depth this time round. I can see The Giant Bolster running his form to the ounce and not being in the first four.
 
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clivex said:
I cannot have lord Windermere for this at all.
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Is that because you don't rate last year's Gold Cup and you think there are better horses in it this year? Or is it because of this season's form?

I think he'll perform to at least the same level this year and that might be enough to win it.
 
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I dont rate last years gold cup much. I also believe that the idea that lw is being trained for one race only to be s bit implausible. They know hes goid but clearly no superstar and ditching good targets all season on some supposed mission makes no sense

too much is made of supposed clever targeting.
 
I know you've done the sectionals, EC1, and they show the race was slowed down and then speeded up again, but didn't BG say that they were always going just half a yard too fast for Bob's Worth in last year's GC? Would that indicate he was always struggling to go the pace throughout the race? Genuine question, as Bob's Worth is a genuine stayer.
 
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