Cheltenham Gold Cup 2015

I think we just put a line through last season for Bobs Worth.

It may be that the previous year bottomed him and he won't come back but he was backed off the boards at Leopardstown at Christmas, suggesting he had been giving off the right signals.

I also wonder if Henderson decided early this season there was too much stress trying to go toe to toe all season with Nicholls for the trainers' race and decided to gear his year around Cheltenham and Aintree and maybe Punchestown, and just target the odd big race during the season.
 
This is something that has been bugging and puzzling me for a few weeks now.... NJH keeps saying that Bobsworth needs better ground. Top of the ground horse etc.
The Gold cup he won in 2013 was Soft and it truly was a battle of attrition. The ground was much much better in 2014 and as Len suggests there, Bobs was taken off his feet a bit.

He might have been a good ground horse couple of years ago, but as he has aged and now 10, I'm just not so sure now. His only other win in the past 2 years since His Gold Cup win, was the Lexus and there was Soft in the going then too. Unless I'm missing something here?
 
Double Handful said:
This is something that has been bugging and puzzling me for a few weeks now.... NJH keeps saying that Bobsworth needs better ground. Top of the ground horse etc.
The Gold cup he won in 2013 was Soft and it truly was a battle of attrition. The ground was much much better in 2014 and as Len suggests there, Bobs was taken off his feet a bit.

He might have been a good ground horse couple of years ago, but as he has aged and now 10, I'm just not so sure now. His only other win in the past 2 years since His Gold Cup win, was the Lexus and there was Soft in the going then too. Unless I'm missing something here?
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And the Hennessey he won at Newbury in 2012 was also on soft ground, DH. Which was against a lot of expectations, as he had won his RSA and Albert Bartlett on spring ground. Surely, he has just grown into softer ground now, as it slows down the other horses to his pace. But I'm sure a few of the Irish horses would beat him on soft ground now, not to mention Many Clouds.
 
That would suggest to me that BW found the ground too quick then Len..not the pace ...when he won the GC...the race was 17 seconds slower from the first fence to finish ..than last years edition

the pace figures i shoved up are relative to the overall time....so in effect they could have gone slower last year in real terms..but in terms of running to suit the ground they still ran faster than when BW won...basically if you go even pace on soft..you are travelling slower than even pace on Good...and if you go slower than even on Good..you might still be travelling faster in real terms than even pace on slow..hope you get that:)

so to me BW must need the ground slow to be at his best..because on last years ground..even when they didn't go even pace in the mid race...the pace was still too fast for him

i wouldn't be backing him on good ground..particularly if they go a good pace this year..because that means he will find them going way too fast for him
 
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I'll try and show you what i mean with the actual time Bobs Worth ran

When won the GC...he ran from fence 1 to 8 in 118.1 sec

That was at a decent evenish early pace

Last year LWindermere ran from fence 1 to 8 in 112.9

so they ran 5 seconds quicker last year which it looks like Bobsworth didn't like..but they ran quicker in mph..only because the ground was quicker

at fence 15 when Bob won = 263.7
last year = 255.7

again,,Bob happier going the 8 seconds slower than he did last year

when you consider that when Long Run won..
his time to fence 8 was = 109.8..
and fence 15 = 243.8

20 seconds faster at fence 15 than Bobs winning effort......you can see just how much quicker they might go on decent ground if this years race is made into a an even pacer..BW will get run off his feet in 243.8 if 255.7 was too much for him last year

definitely a slow ground horse ..these days...imo
 
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clivex said:
I dont rate last years gold cup much. I also believe that the idea that lw is being trained for one race only to be s bit implausible. They know hes goid but clearly no superstar and ditching good targets all season on some supposed mission makes no sense too much is made of supposed clever targeting.
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Don't forget he's being trained by the man who rode Best Mate and was Henrietta Knight's stable jockey. And judging by the way his horses are campaigned, by Dermot Weld as well as Jim Culloty, Dr Lambe appears to be a very patient owner.
 
EC1 said:
yes it really needed an injection of middle race pace Tiggers to make it a proper race..you would think Nicholls will realise whats needed this year..then again..i'm not that bothered as i won't back him anyway..but surely PN will know if they don't go the pace this year that will be against SC..he certainly made sure the KG was a test..so I can see a similar tactic here if nowt goes the required mph
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Wouldn't that merely compromise SC's chance though? Piling on the pace in a Gold Cup is only going to help a real, genuine stayer who wants every yard of 3m2f.......and Silvi has never looked like that kind of horse.
 
Grasshopper said:
Wouldn't that merely compromise SC's chance though? Piling on the pace in a Gold Cup is only going to help a real, genuine stayer who wants every yard of 3m2f.......and Silvi has never looked like that kind of horse.
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I don't mean go faster than even pace though Grass..last year there was a massive lull in the middle..if he is wary of a pace drop this year..then at that point just he needs to get to the front and make it even pace.

I'm not talking about racing too fast..just not going too slow for long sections of the race

Off an even pace throughout SC has his best chance...big lulls ..as in slowing down lulls...in pace won't suit him..which imo means keeping him near the pace at the start..then judging mid race if its too slow..at that point go to front and ride evenly again..we aren't talking massive amounts here..but a jockey should know if they have eased off the peddle
 
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Fair enough, EC1.

Conti is almost certainly the best horse in the race, but I'm still not convinced he truly gets home over this kind of trip.
 
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I get the impression that at 3 miles he is very hard to beat..and at that trip he is best on the pace..or if kept off it he has one short burst as he showed when passing CC late on..he sort of showed that short burst last year..then it just petered out late on

hard to weigh up isn't he at this trip?
 
Len Madeiros said:
I know you've done the sectionals, EC1, and they show the race was slowed down and then speeded up again, but didn't BG say that they were always going just half a yard too fast for Bob's Worth in last year's GC? Would that indicate he was always struggling to go the pace throughout the race? Genuine question, as Bob's Worth is a genuine stayer.
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Bobs Worth travelled fine until the the top of the hill 2nd time around (about 6 out), but was being pushed from thereon in and simply lacked the gears of those that passed him. Was still in contention until approaching the last though, and (given the lull in pace) t'was a much better run than many gave him credit for.
With the likes of Sam Winner, Holywell and possibly Coneygree in this year's race, it's almost cast iron to be run at a better pace, and I'll be amazed if he doesn't outstay such as Lord Windermere.
 
EC, If the pace dropped off in the middle, which allowed LW back in the race as he was struggling, does the slow middle sectional not mean they were sprinting the last section, which based on LW's early struggle to keep up would have been against him no? I'm slightly confused but then LW is just a confusing horse!!!
 
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Grey said:
Don't forget he's being trained by the man who rode Best Mate and was Henrietta Knight's stable jockey. And judging by the way his horses are campaigned, by Dermot Weld as well as Jim Culloty, Dr Lambe appears to be a very patient owner.
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yes but at the end of the day they finished in a heap and he was a short head in front of a pretty good but fairly exposed horse. it all fell into place and backing on that happening again as an owner is a strange course to take imo. It goes without saying that if he had won beating an exotic dancer by 5 lengths then perhaps fair enough.
 
Aragorn said:
EC, If the pace dropped off in the middle, which allowed LW back in the race as he was struggling, does the slow middle sectional not mean they were sprinting the last section, which based on LW's early struggle to keep up would have been against him no? I'm slightly confused but then LW is just a confusing horse!!!
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yes they were sprinting the last section..but they are true stayers sprinting..which isn't that much speed being shown...whereas LW is speedier..so passed them

its like Denman v Kauto..Denman was your grinder..KS favoured the LW scenario..a speedier type than Denman...when the pace wasn't so strong in the GC..KS finished his race properly...when pace was strong over 3m2f he was stretched out. Denman wouldn't beat KS for speed after the last for instance if the pace wasn't proper earlier

In my mind LW is a 3 mile type that needs the lull in pace to strike late over 3m2..if its a truly run throughout race i don't see him being as effective..they will run the speed out of him
 
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The problem with having the likes of Best Mate, Kauto Star and Denman winning the GC, is that we forget the prevailing nature of how the GC is run: the winner tends to either be the best horse that season (and for one season only), or is best suited by how the race has been run. We also forget that the winner will never be the same again, as the sheer effort of winning the race takes so much out of them. You also tend to get a second season chaser running really well into a place.

I still don't know who'll win it, though.
 
clivex said:
yes but at the end of the day they finished in a heap and he was a short head in front of a pretty good but fairly exposed horse. it all fell into place and backing on that happening again as an owner is a strange course to take imo. It goes without saying that if he had won beating an exotic dancer by 5 lengths then perhaps fair enough.
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It's not such a big gamble when you take into account the horse's preference for spring ground and the big prize money compared with the Irish Grade 1 chases. I expect him to be in the places and the cards might fall for him again.
 
its a really tough race..we've been spoiled over the last 10 years to the point of thinking its easy to just keep coming back year in year out..it really isn't

i don't know what will win..but i'm pretty sure what i want to see for certain horses not to run their best on the day....the problem being..some of the reasons won't be clear until they start running

Anyone trying to back the winner ante post is playing to pure chance most of the time..chance being..ground and pace..both unknown..pure guesswork at this moment in time what wins it..using ratings is pointless as if groundor pace don't suit..they go out the window
 
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reet hard said:
Bobs Worth travelled fine until the the top of the hill 2nd time around (about 6 out), but was being pushed from thereon in and simply lacked the gears of those that passed him. Was still in contention until approaching the last though, and (given the lull in pace) t'was a much better run than many gave him credit for.
With the likes of Sam Winner, Holywell and possibly Coneygree in this year's race, it's almost cast iron to be run at a better pace, and I'll be amazed if he doesn't outstay such as Lord Windermere.
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I just watched the race 3 times again and have to agree about Bobsworth. He was actually all over the joint which never helped and after they jumped the last he was just about to get back upsides SC when for some reason he dashed towards the rails and knocked Geraghty off balance.

If I wanted to give S Conti a plus it would be he's a much better horse over three miles than any of these and he's got one of the best jockeys ever on board NOT that dickhead T-D.

Fehily is just about the best judge of pace you'll find anywhere and if he gets the opportunity to slip te filed and get first run I think that's what he should do and the hill wont matter because he'll be gone and home before they catch him.....He's got the pace to do it but whether fat ******* has cottoned on to that? Surely he has? Stuff holding him up for the trip do what Kauto did albeit to a lesser degree and settle the race before all the slow coaches can get going.

All bets are off if Congree turns up.....he won't win imo but he'll cause havoc and everything will finish legless then anything could win.

No one seems to give The Great Bolster a Chance but if this turns into a carbon copy of last year why not? I backed him at a huge price and and laid him back already but it won't end there.......I counted at least 6 times during the race he lost about 4 lengths and then made them up again on the way round. It must have cost him at least 15 to 20 lengths and a whole lot of energy

He was also absolutely mullered at the second last and still manged to finish just behind the winner.

Ok he's a creature of habit but Bridgy has never had his horses in better form. If he can get the The Great Bolster 110% and sweetened up and into a Rhythm during the race he could win the Gold Cup standing on his head.

It's a big if but for me he's 100% got to be backed EW at the price.......I've already had a few sneaky bets on the place market and will dabble on the win market on the day just in case
 
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Grey said:
It's not such a big gamble when you take into account the horse's preference for spring ground and the big prize money compared with the Irish Grade 1 chases. I expect him to be in the places and the cards might fall for him again.
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im not one for place bets but i could see him as a much better prospect to place than others at same price in market. the two inexperienced horses could easily blow up and its not difficult to imagine BW and H being tailed off, not fancying it at all
 
They'd both have to turn up in pretty poor shape to be tailed off Clive........There two very genuine horses mate...Holywell is as game as a pebble and Bob's Worth has won more than a few battles in his time.
 
EC1 said:
yes they were sprinting the last section..but they are true stayers sprinting..which isn't that much speed being shown...whereas LW is speedier..so passed them

its like Denman v Kauto..Denman was your grinder..KS favoured the LW scenario..a speedier type than Denman...when the pace wasn't so strong in the GC..KS finished his race properly...when pace was strong over 3m2f he was stretched out. Denman wouldn't beat KS for speed after the last for instance if the pace wasn't proper earlier

In my mind LW is a 3 mile type that needs the lull in pace to strike late over 3m2..if its a truly run throughout race i don't see him being as effective..they will run the speed out of him
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Sorry, I thought you'd said LW was a stayer, but in fact you'd said the opposite. Not convinced LW is speedy, certainly wouldn't have said On his own was and he did a very similar thing at the end of the GC to LW.... Numbers don't lie though and I have to concede you've proven the shape of the race.

I just don't like this years race though and have very little opinion about a lot of these. I'd have to look beyond last years field and Djakadam/Road to Riches are the two most interesting.
 
Tanlic said:
They'd both have to turn up in pretty poor shape to be tailed off Clive........There two very genuine horses mate...Holywell is as game as a pebble and Bob's Worth has won more than a few battles in his time.
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But also because one is still a bit unknown quantity at this level and the other could be seriously past his best. Also the total aversion to racing them at all is against rather than for IMO. Lw would be more reliable for a place I think
 
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