I've got him 3L's faster than Denman, and I thought he set a bloody good standard for this race. I'm sure this race is going to leave a mark on a few
Cheltenham Gold Cup 2015
- Thread starter Ardross
- Start date
I've got him 3L's faster than Denman, and I thought he set a bloody good standard for this race. I'm sure this race is going to leave a mark on a few
Cybrandian
Apprentice
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- May 13, 2003
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- 59
That sounds on the low side. Does anyone have ratings of previous Gold Cups to hand for comparison?
EC1
On a break
the overall speed figure i get is massive..i've just got to do the sectionals to see if Next Sensation + Foxhunters were run to par finishing speed..if they were ..then they must be 3 exceptional chasers that took part in the GC
EC1
On a break
the foxhunters was about 110%..so not truly run..Next Sensation was strongly run 98.8%..possibly damaged final rating.. i get that race as 10 slow
so..trying my hardest to be conservative..i get Coneygree a speed figure of 182
so..trying my hardest to be conservative..i get Coneygree a speed figure of 182
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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Interesting. I could fancy him to win the Hennessy off that mark.
Frankel
Senior Jockey
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- Jan 12, 2014
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Wouldn't disagree.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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I've watched the race a few times now.
I hope in the years to come we'll look back at it and regard it as a benchmark to rank alongside the best recent renewals such as the Denman and Kauto Star years. Last year's will be confined to the Cool Ground - Nortons Coin folder.
My worry is that Djakadam, Road To Riches (especially) and Holywell might not get over the race. Losing an epic race to Bobs Worth bottomed Long Run. Looking at Coneygree this morning on TV, it doesn't look like it's taken too much out of him.
I hope in the years to come we'll look back at it and regard it as a benchmark to rank alongside the best recent renewals such as the Denman and Kauto Star years. Last year's will be confined to the Cool Ground - Nortons Coin folder.
My worry is that Djakadam, Road To Riches (especially) and Holywell might not get over the race. Losing an epic race to Bobs Worth bottomed Long Run. Looking at Coneygree this morning on TV, it doesn't look like it's taken too much out of him.
Cracking race, and a real good winner, but I'd find it hard to believe that the 2nd and 3rd are in the Kauto/Denman class - which they'd need to be to rate the race so highly, considering how close up they finished.
tiggers1972
Senior Jockey
Brilliant by the novice.
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
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These are my immediate thoughts, reet. I've still to crunch the numbers. If, once I've done so, I downgrade the form a bit will that leave me open to criticism? From certain quarters, no doubt. But better to correct a mistake than to live with and compound one.
As you know, I'm fond of the 'take x out' approach. I've done this from a couple of perspectives.
Take the first three out. On His Own has set a strong pace and held off one strong pretender in Many Clouds, and Silviniaco Conti, the best staying chaser in the country but one whose fallibility on this course was already a debating point after last year. Those two have pretty much run last year's race to the pound. Smad Place, many people's idea of a good outsider and the Irish Hennesy winner Carlingford Lough wwere right on their tail. You'd understand anyone arguing they've all run their races close to expectations. Get the binoculars out. Holywell has beaten them 14 lengths. We'd be hailing Holywell as an exceptional Gold Cup winner. Yet he's six lengths and more behind another three.
Had it been a muddling sort of race, I could have wondered about it all. But the time angle is very compelling.
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EC1
On a break
if you use the finishing % of all the races ..to see which ones weren't true time tests..like the Foxhunters...you can make a pretty accurate time mark on this race
like i said..i get 182..but am going to do some work on previous meets..would be interested to see what your rating is
I think Reets point is interesting..but we actually do not have fully developed figures for the 2nd + 3rd..they wouldn't be horses that have definite end product marks like SC etc..they could actually be mid/late 170's . as both are improving every time they run
from a time aspect..this is solid...not sure how you will do the form thing though DO...a magic wand maybe
that official 171 is just ridiculous imo.
granger
Senior Jockey
Haydock and KG for the winner next year according to Bradstock
they could be tempted to replicate Denman if he strips well I'd thnk and go Hennessy
they could be tempted to replicate Denman if he strips well I'd thnk and go Hennessy
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M
marbler
Guest
Plenty of time for Coneygree to improve his rating. He could only beat what where there in front of him to beat yesterday, imo.
Frankel
Senior Jockey
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Vautour I do think will get 3m. Also talk he'll be aimed at next years Gold Cup. Would seriously question him getting home in similar circumstances to yesterday.
Ground and pace would dictate his chances. Decent ground and no Coneygree setting those fractions would give him a chance.
Throw in Don Poli, Djakadam and RTR. Mouthwatering at the thought of it.
Ground and pace would dictate his chances. Decent ground and no Coneygree setting those fractions would give him a chance.
Throw in Don Poli, Djakadam and RTR. Mouthwatering at the thought of it.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
Would it not be a concern how he veered left towards the end of the race. We've seen in the past how lung bursting victories up that hill can take a mean toll on a horse.
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granger
Senior Jockey
will leave a toll.
bobs and SDC never quite the same.
only thing in his favour is that he is relatively lightly raced and isn't going to be asked to run again this term.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
He veered right not left of course.
EC1
On a break
I get the going yesterday as extremely close to 2008 when Denman won..in fact the going stick that day suggested it was faster in 2008 than yesterday......it wasn't though. If it had been faster in 2008 then that would favour Coneygree even more.
The times from all the races when you allow for the new way of timing are remarkably similar on both days..this gives us a unique comparison between Denman +Coneygree
These are the cumulutive times from when they pass the starter
<tbody>
[TD="width: 65"] Start-F4 [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] F4-F9 [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] F9-F13 [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] F13-F19 [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] F19-FIN [/TD]
</tbody>
these are the individual splits
<tbody>
[TD="width: 65"] Start-F4 [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] F4-F9 [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] F9-F13 [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] F13-F19 [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] F19-FIN [/TD]
</tbody>
The times from all the races when you allow for the new way of timing are remarkably similar on both days..this gives us a unique comparison between Denman +Coneygree
These are the cumulutive times from when they pass the starter
| ….................. | |||||
| DENMAN | 75.6 | 146.4 | 242.2 | 323.5 | 404.5 |
| CONEYGREE | 71.5 | 144.5 | 240.3 | 322.6 | 402.5 |
<tbody>
[TD="width: 65"] Start-F4 [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] F4-F9 [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] F9-F13 [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] F13-F19 [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] F19-FIN [/TD]
</tbody>
these are the individual splits
| …................... | |||||
| DENMAN | 75.6 | 70.8 | 95.8 | 81.3 | 81.0 |
| CONEYGREE | 71.5 | 73.0 | 95.8 | 82.3 | 79.9 |
<tbody>
[TD="width: 65"] Start-F4 [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] F4-F9 [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] F9-F13 [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] F13-F19 [/TD]
[TD="width: 65"] F19-FIN [/TD]
</tbody>
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Euronymous
Senior Jockey
So between fence 4 and fence 19 Denman was 3 seconds quicker. To me that's more telling than the 2 seconds he's was behind at the finish.
EC1
On a break
but up to fence 4 was 4 seconds slower..swings and roundabouts really.
I can post the individual fences if anyone wants them
I can post the individual fences if anyone wants them
EC1
On a break
| 2008 | DENMAN | 14.2 | 12.1 | 35.1 | 14.2 | 11.4 | 10.9 | 15.5 | 14.8 | 18.2 | 19.4 | 30.5 | 11.6 | 34.3 | 13.7 | 10.7 | 10.4 | 14.7 | 14.4 | 17.4 | 18.2 | 29.5 | 12.8 | 20.5 |
| 2015 | CONEYGREE | 12.5 | 11.6 | 33.5 | 13.9 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 16.0 | 15.3 | 19.1 | 19.6 | 30.5 | 11.8 | 33.9 | 13.7 | 10.6 | 10.3 | 15.4 | 14.5 | 17.8 | 19.2 | 29.7 | 12.1 | 18.9 |
<colgroup><col width="45"><col width="116"><col width="42"><col width="42"><col width="42"><col width="42"><col width="42"><col width="42"><col width="42"><col width="42"><col width="42"><col width="42"><col width="42"><col width="42"><col width="42"><col width="42"><col width="42"><col width="42"><col width="42"><col width="42"><col width="42"><col width="42"><col width="42"><col width="42"><col width="42"></colgroup> <tbody>
[TD="width: 45"][/TD]
[TD="width: 116"] Fence [/TD]
[TD="width: 42"] 1 [/TD]
[TD="width: 42"] 2 [/TD]
[TD="width: 42"] 3 [/TD]
[TD="width: 42"] 4 [/TD]
[TD="width: 42"] 5 [/TD]
[TD="width: 42"] 6 [/TD]
[TD="width: 42"] 7 [/TD]
[TD="width: 42"] 8 [/TD]
[TD="width: 42"] 9 [/TD]
[TD="width: 42"] 10 [/TD]
[TD="width: 42"] 11 [/TD]
[TD="width: 42"] 12 [/TD]
[TD="width: 42"] 13 [/TD]
[TD="width: 42"] 14 [/TD]
[TD="width: 42"] 15 [/TD]
[TD="width: 42"] 16 [/TD]
[TD="width: 42"] 17 [/TD]
[TD="width: 42"] 18 [/TD]
[TD="width: 42"] 19 [/TD]
[TD="width: 42"] 20 [/TD]
[TD="width: 42"] 21 [/TD]
[TD="width: 42"] 22 [/TD]
[TD="width: 42"] Fin [/TD]
</tbody>
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edgt
Senior Jockey
You make it look like Nico watched the Denman race over and over and used the clock in his head to do the rest.
Maybe he did EC1.
Maybe he did EC1.
I was concerned about how he veered to the right, given he's had leg trouble in the past, and was relieved to see that he was sound enough today. Was Nico just a little bit careful with him at the last fence which caused him to lose his momentum slightly, but then powered on up the hill. Race gets better each time I re watch it.