Diamond Geezer
Gone But Not Forgotten
- Joined
- May 2, 2003
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- 13,884
Remains to be seen whether the race bottoms out the young horses
Cheltenham Gold Cup 2015
- Thread starter Ardross
- Start date
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
And where are we going to find a Gold Cup that was run on soft ground?......Can't have been many......DO was on heavy as was Ten Up.........seems it almost always g/f good or good to soft
archie
Senior Jockey
Weren't you the one who was assuring us that it would be a soft ground Festival this year? Have to say you were right for the Friday. 2 days earlier next year so it will be interesting.
For what it's worth, if the Gold Cup had been run on Thursday rather than Friday (like when it was a proper 3 day event!) I think that Road To Riches would have beaten Holywell. Fair play to Coneygree's connections for getting the weather forecast right and making a brave call but the going has changed the race completely.
EC1
On a break
ordinary as compared to what though?.What a friend wasn't far behind in one of the races we thought was the best to be run
can you give me an ordinary GC..then a poor one..then a really good one..then we can look at all 3 and see what makes them so
EC1
On a break
i had a DVD recorder in the mid 00's...i've checked what races i've got recorded from Cheltenham..i've got 2006 + 2007..whether they have all the races i haven't checked..not got 2008 annoyingly
if anyone has got the last day races from 2008 recorded and could upload them to Youtube then they could be timed the same way the splits are timed i've posted..remove the starting palaver and enabling the true going allowance for that day instead of relying on final times in RP.
if anyone has got the last day races from 2008 recorded and could upload them to Youtube then they could be timed the same way the splits are timed i've posted..remove the starting palaver and enabling the true going allowance for that day instead of relying on final times in RP.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
EC1
On a break
like when Alverton won..it was alverton in the snow wasn't it?.there was another snowy one since as well
all those videos on youtube...and only the GC from 2008..the one year i'm interested in
all those videos on youtube...and only the GC from 2008..the one year i'm interested in
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Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
All things are relative, and this is a personal view:
Top-class: Denman
Ordinary: Kicking King
Low-class: Lord Windermere
I'd probably have this one rated somewhere around Kicking King's performance.
Also, I don't think it's appropriate to use the term "we" when you refer to What A Friend's Gold Cup performances. If one thing is evident from being a participant in this forum, it is that Members very rarely agree on anything absolutely, and there are always shades of difference.
I'd also state that a lot of horses in this year's Gold Cup patently failed to run their race (for whatever reason) and there is therefore a danger of going overboard about the form, if one were to take too literal a view of the race.
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EC1
On a break
do you think smad place has run well for a 154 horse?..everything in its favour..stamina test on slow ground
Grasshopper
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Nov 14, 2006
- Messages
- 16,050
I'm still too fatigued to look in-depth, EC1. It's just a gut-feel based on them all having question-marks against them beforehand, and the fact that the ground was probably not that consistent, after a lot of drying days, followed by a downpour. Too many of them failed to run their race, imo, and I'm generally cautious about the value of form in such circumstances.
EC1
On a break
one thing we have on GC day is the foxhunters..run over the same trip. Usually run at a similarish pace ..married man style...to suit the level of rider..you cannot measure from a race like the foxhunters in a lb per second way each year..it would be misleading.....but what you can do is find out what the average difference is between the two races and see which GC's are above that average
for people who think time doesn't mean anything over a distance of ground..then check out who holds the best marathon times..and 5k and 10k races in athletics..you will find the best times relate to the best runners in the world..its not possible for a poor runner..or poor horse to run a good time.
If you run a good time..better than most..you are better than many at that test..thats fact. On the same surface..as you get in athletics..the best runners run the best times..that doesn't mean every time they run..as tactics and pace play a part just the same as with horse racing. But if you can get the surface the same for two horse races..you can make judgements that relate to ability in horse racing...just based on time.
Any GC winner that beats the foxhunters/GC average by a decent margin is above average..only good horses record good times. A GC winner that is slower than average is only below par if the GC is truly run...so basically if a GC has not been run at even pace..then that is the reason for the slow time..but if a GC is run at even pace and its a slow time..then the winner isn't that smart. This test isn't trying to sort out poor winners ..as we would need the pace in all of them to judge that..that can be done easily obviously..but not today. So if a year is below the average it doesn't necessarily mean its a poor GC...but those races that beat the foxhunters the most are very decent winners.
these are the differences in time between the foxhunters and GC
2008 13.4
2010 12.1
2002 11.5
2004 11.5
2006 11
2003 10.5
2013 10.44
2009 9.35
2012 8.21
2011 7.5
2005 7.4
2014 6.62
2000 6.3
2007 6.14
The average difference between the two races is 9.4 seconds.
We aren't really bothered about the bottom few..unless we know if the pace was slow,,so we cannot say they are automatically below average winners...but those at the top are above what we deem as average winners..even if we only say just the top 2 are decent renewals...we have achieved something.
Denman [+13.4] is an above average renewal ...not surprising is it?.
and the 2nd best above average renewal is when Denman got beat by Imperial Commander [+12.1]..again..can anyone argue this wasn't an above average GC? IC beat Denman by 7 with the 3rd horse Mon Mome 23L away.
So this test has highlighted two really good GC's..without even looking at who took part in them..I've not read any form..if i had never watched racing before i could have come to this decision..just based on time and a barometer to measure it against
i'd say thats pretty indicative of if this does find the decent GC's or not.
so lets see where Coneygree sits in the comparison
2015 +17.3
does that look below average..or does it actually look well above average?
i know what i think
for people who think time doesn't mean anything over a distance of ground..then check out who holds the best marathon times..and 5k and 10k races in athletics..you will find the best times relate to the best runners in the world..its not possible for a poor runner..or poor horse to run a good time.
If you run a good time..better than most..you are better than many at that test..thats fact. On the same surface..as you get in athletics..the best runners run the best times..that doesn't mean every time they run..as tactics and pace play a part just the same as with horse racing. But if you can get the surface the same for two horse races..you can make judgements that relate to ability in horse racing...just based on time.
Any GC winner that beats the foxhunters/GC average by a decent margin is above average..only good horses record good times. A GC winner that is slower than average is only below par if the GC is truly run...so basically if a GC has not been run at even pace..then that is the reason for the slow time..but if a GC is run at even pace and its a slow time..then the winner isn't that smart. This test isn't trying to sort out poor winners ..as we would need the pace in all of them to judge that..that can be done easily obviously..but not today. So if a year is below the average it doesn't necessarily mean its a poor GC...but those races that beat the foxhunters the most are very decent winners.
these are the differences in time between the foxhunters and GC
2008 13.4
2010 12.1
2002 11.5
2004 11.5
2006 11
2003 10.5
2013 10.44
2009 9.35
2012 8.21
2011 7.5
2005 7.4
2014 6.62
2000 6.3
2007 6.14
The average difference between the two races is 9.4 seconds.
We aren't really bothered about the bottom few..unless we know if the pace was slow,,so we cannot say they are automatically below average winners...but those at the top are above what we deem as average winners..even if we only say just the top 2 are decent renewals...we have achieved something.
Denman [+13.4] is an above average renewal ...not surprising is it?.
and the 2nd best above average renewal is when Denman got beat by Imperial Commander [+12.1]..again..can anyone argue this wasn't an above average GC? IC beat Denman by 7 with the 3rd horse Mon Mome 23L away.
So this test has highlighted two really good GC's..without even looking at who took part in them..I've not read any form..if i had never watched racing before i could have come to this decision..just based on time and a barometer to measure it against
i'd say thats pretty indicative of if this does find the decent GC's or not.
so lets see where Coneygree sits in the comparison
2015 +17.3
does that look below average..or does it actually look well above average?
i know what i think
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Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Smad Place.....I actually backed him and I'll tell you what....he's got as much to do with the result or the ratings as what I've got to do with running parliament.
I had this same debate with Timeform when they gave Dream Ahead the same rating as Frankel by sighting some horse who finished in the ruck because he ors he had finished close up in a group race.
Horses run the odd race where they run way beyond what they are capable of but most of them they're flattered as Neptune Collonges was beaten only a short head by Kauto Star behind Denman.
Horses have to finish somewhere and once you get back past the front 4 you can pretty well much ignore what's happened. Horses are eased others are not, some on that particular day are legless because they burnt themselves out like S Conti was.
Before they race we had no idea how good the front 2 really were........Just a guess from the handicapper to guide us but to me there's a giant flaw in his ratings, Djakadam 162
Conagree 166, Road to Riches 167 and Holywell 163 are all new kids on the block and there's no way of telling how good they really are.......2 novices a Jonjo he'll be alright on the night horse and one improving chaser in Road to riches.
That's some mixture to be trying to work out a rating from.none of which has got a thing to do with Smad Place.
No seasoned chaser has struck a blow....S Conti was taken off his feet by the young brigade you can blame stamina but he was beaten just after 4 from home he hadn't even run 3 miles
On his own did a bit better but he's been beaten 24 lengths Neither Bobsworth nor LW couldn't go the pace and even the Hennessy winner got his backside felt.
Something tells me the handicapper better sharpen his pencil and rewrite his notes.
We have been comparing the winner to Denman now we are expected to compare him to Smad Place.........Don't think so.
In my little handicap book this horse would eat S Conti alive round Kempton and if he's a 174 horse I would have to put him about a 179 horse at least.
As for the others they finished close enough to him to be put up a little bit imo but only at Cheltenham bar Djakadam who will improve more that the other 2 are likely to and i'd put up more.
Round a 3 mile park course I think Conagree would beat any of them hands down plus I don't get the impression he'd need soft ground to do it.
I reckon they would have ran him in the Gold Cup even if the forecast wasn't for some rain.......A lotta people were slagging them beforehand and they had to make some excuse for a decision that many people said was mad.....Funny how a lot less said the same about Mullins running a 6 year old..nothing weirder than folks
I had this same debate with Timeform when they gave Dream Ahead the same rating as Frankel by sighting some horse who finished in the ruck because he ors he had finished close up in a group race.
Horses run the odd race where they run way beyond what they are capable of but most of them they're flattered as Neptune Collonges was beaten only a short head by Kauto Star behind Denman.
Horses have to finish somewhere and once you get back past the front 4 you can pretty well much ignore what's happened. Horses are eased others are not, some on that particular day are legless because they burnt themselves out like S Conti was.
Before they race we had no idea how good the front 2 really were........Just a guess from the handicapper to guide us but to me there's a giant flaw in his ratings, Djakadam 162
Conagree 166, Road to Riches 167 and Holywell 163 are all new kids on the block and there's no way of telling how good they really are.......2 novices a Jonjo he'll be alright on the night horse and one improving chaser in Road to riches.
That's some mixture to be trying to work out a rating from.none of which has got a thing to do with Smad Place.
No seasoned chaser has struck a blow....S Conti was taken off his feet by the young brigade you can blame stamina but he was beaten just after 4 from home he hadn't even run 3 miles
On his own did a bit better but he's been beaten 24 lengths Neither Bobsworth nor LW couldn't go the pace and even the Hennessy winner got his backside felt.
Something tells me the handicapper better sharpen his pencil and rewrite his notes.
We have been comparing the winner to Denman now we are expected to compare him to Smad Place.........Don't think so.
In my little handicap book this horse would eat S Conti alive round Kempton and if he's a 174 horse I would have to put him about a 179 horse at least.
As for the others they finished close enough to him to be put up a little bit imo but only at Cheltenham bar Djakadam who will improve more that the other 2 are likely to and i'd put up more.
Round a 3 mile park course I think Conagree would beat any of them hands down plus I don't get the impression he'd need soft ground to do it.
I reckon they would have ran him in the Gold Cup even if the forecast wasn't for some rain.......A lotta people were slagging them beforehand and they had to make some excuse for a decision that many people said was mad.....Funny how a lot less said the same about Mullins running a 6 year old..nothing weirder than folks
EC1
On a break
who has compared the winner to Smad Place???
read the post above yours..you may find it interesting...then again..most will dismiss it as nonsense
read the post above yours..you may find it interesting...then again..most will dismiss it as nonsense
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EC1
On a break
To be honest..my post above re the comparison...proves you don't need to read form to judge this years race
i doubt anyone will take any notice of it though..even though its based on sound logic
i doubt anyone will take any notice of it though..even though its based on sound logic
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Haven't thought of comparing Gold Cups and Foxhunters in that was but again it points to Coneygree being a top class winner....Don't really know what more we need......seems to be the case from every which way you want to look at it.
His jumping has certainly improved massively since Kempton where he was very novicey but still put half the others on the floor and won by 40 lengths. Mind you if Nico had bothered to look behind that might have been 10 lengths..........1st grade one winner for the lad I think he got a wee bit excited.:lol:
All depends on how he comes on from the GC. I hope they have the common sense to rough him off until next season and give him plenty time to recover.
I think they have a right horse there and if they look after him, Vautour and Don Poli or not, he'll win again next year..
His jumping has certainly improved massively since Kempton where he was very novicey but still put half the others on the floor and won by 40 lengths. Mind you if Nico had bothered to look behind that might have been 10 lengths..........1st grade one winner for the lad I think he got a wee bit excited.:lol:
All depends on how he comes on from the GC. I hope they have the common sense to rough him off until next season and give him plenty time to recover.
I think they have a right horse there and if they look after him, Vautour and Don Poli or not, he'll win again next year..
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EC1
On a break
If you read it properly..i've said no such thing...always the negative gained through purposeful misinterpretation..no need for it really.
I'll just state clearly for you..I'm not a thick tw@t Reet..please do not treat me like i am..and do not put words in my mouth or misread my posts and then tell me your way of reading it makes me look stupid..its actually the reverse
The figures are not poundage measures of A V B worth..is that clear enough?....they are a measure of whether the GC contains an above average performance. Only decent horses can run fast times.
these are from 1989-2015..in that time only 3 races have broken the 12 second barrier..one ..by a large amount
| 2015 17.3 2008 13.4 2010 12.1 1995 11.5 2002 11.5 2004 11.5 2006 11.0 2003 10.5 2013 10.4 1989 9.9 2009 9.4 1997 9.2 1999 8.8 1996 8.4 1991 8.4 2012 8.2 1992 8.1 1990 8.1 1988 7.6 2011 7.5 2005 7.4 2014 6.6 1998 6.6 2000 6.3 2007 6.1 1994 4.6 1993 0.2 |
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Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 24,881
Would that be the same caution that told you Djakadam couldn't possibly have run to a mark in excess of 160 in the Thysetes (in which the well beaten third Goonyella just came out and pished up in the Midlands National)?
EC1
On a break
What those comparisons cannot tell us is the actual level a horse has run to..but one thing they clearly tell you is that whatever mark Imperial Commander in 2010 & Denman in 2008 were given by the handicapper..then Coneygree cannot logically be rated less..it would be totally illogical to do so
edgt
Senior Jockey
Bobsworth's rating seems ridiculous now for one so that would drop the average quite a bit.
Best to rate like with like going wise so by all means compare Conygree with Denman, Imperial Commander, Bobsworth, Tied Cottage (Not Master Smudge who was beaten 8 lengths) Alverton, Master Oats, The Thinker ,Ten Up , Davy Lad etc.
Keep in mind that soft ground ratings come with a health warning when compared to going with Good in the description and you may be getting some place.
Thanks for all the figures EC1 and co. They are quite enlightening.
What help did P Mullins on On His Own give the winner in setting the early race fractions a la Neptune Collognes in Denman's year , he also staying on at the finish .
Best to rate like with like going wise so by all means compare Conygree with Denman, Imperial Commander, Bobsworth, Tied Cottage (Not Master Smudge who was beaten 8 lengths) Alverton, Master Oats, The Thinker ,Ten Up , Davy Lad etc.
Keep in mind that soft ground ratings come with a health warning when compared to going with Good in the description and you may be getting some place.
Thanks for all the figures EC1 and co. They are quite enlightening.
What help did P Mullins on On His Own give the winner in setting the early race fractions a la Neptune Collognes in Denman's year , he also staying on at the finish .
Desert Orchid
Senior Jockey
- Joined
- Aug 2, 2005
- Messages
- 24,881
It still bugs me that I punted OHO in two Nationals (12 & 13) when he was off 148, after which they concluded he didn't like the fences. They clearly knew they had a Gold Cup class horse thrown in at the weights.
EC1
On a break
there was no vitriol...you tried to score a point by misinterpreting..purposely as you usually do..my post..so as to belittle it.
i have no issue with constructive comments..but ones designed to make me look like a wet behind the ears empty head don't go down well.
I told you a few weeks ago..each time you post in that way in future..i will highlight it
well i have done.
talk to me properly and i will be quite happy to discuss any racing issue..post with the intention of rubbishing for the sake of it.....and i'll highlight it
no issue either way to me