Cheltenham Gold Cup 2015

Lord Windermere is surely the worst GC winner since Master Smudge .

Retirement ought to beckon for Bob's Worth . I have to admit to seeing no holes in Vautour for the future . I think he will stay alright . On Thursday I thought Ruby had popped in the Tardis to fetch the young Kauto Star !
 
Gaz's Way De Solzen said:
Coneygree given a BHA rating of 171.
Click to expand...

It's likely the OH has based this rating around Holywell, with (as usual) no allowance made for that horse's progression. While he's probably shown some improvement (in his first serious contest of the season) I'd be hard pushed to believe it's the 10lb or so necessary to match some of the ratings bandied about on here, particularly on ground that was against him.
Never believed anyone can rate performances down to the nearest lb, but I'd take a stab at Coneygree's being somewhere in the 175/177 region.
 
These are the BHA ratings given to the last few GC winners

2014 Lord Windermere = 163
2013 Bobs Worth = 180
2012 Synchronised = 167
2011 Long Run = 182
2010 Imperial Commander = 185
2009 Kauto Star = 186
2008 Denman = 182
2007 Kauto Star = 179
2006 War Of Attrition = 171
2005 Kicking King = 175
2004 Best Mate = 175
2003 Best Mate = 175
2002 Best Mate = 170
2000 Looks Like Trouble = 175?
1999 See More Business = 170
1998 Cool Dawn = 175
1997 Mr Mulligan = 178


looking at those....according to the BHA..an average GC winner is rated 175.76.

And in the last 17 years Coneygree is in joint 13th in a tie with War Of Attrition.

So its fair to say..the official handicapper thinks its a below average renewal by 4.76 lengths

so not too impressed would be a fair conclusion

I think he has low rated purely due to the winner being a novice
 
Last edited:
when you look at the race..is it not fair to think that Smad Place has run his race?..loves the conditions..stays..has run just behind SC..a lot better horse than he is on the ratings..with a horse rated 166 [CL] just behind him..surely he hasn't run below par being sandwiched by two such horses..throw in Many Clouds who is a couple of lengths in front him...surely Smad Place has run one of his better races being so close to these horses.

No they haven't run to their marks..but for a horse rated 154 to be near them..he must have run to his level. I'd be happy if i owned a 154 horse that got so near to 3 horses rated near a stone above anyway.

he is rated 154 and was beaten 27 lengths

that makes 181

we don't know how good the 2nd 3rd and 4th are in reality..take RTR for instance..on his last run alone he improved his rating by 6lbs..just in one race
 
Last edited:
Surely the fact that the winner is a novice allows us to expect even better next season and thus be closer to the 180 mark?
 
I would question your Denman V Conagree figures EC. Most are ok but:

I have watched both starts 10 times and Conagree (12 seconds) gets to the first fence fully 4 seconds faster than Denman (16 seconds)

I ask you look again and correct me if I am wrong......anyone else can check for themsleves don't take my word for it or anyone elses.....Fair?

Hardly surprising as he is racing to get to the front whereas Denman is in no hurry..

To compare the 2 times surely you must take that into consideration?

Correcting that difference: At fences 4 to 8 I have Conagree a couple of seconds ahead Denman at each fence

Between 10 and 18 I can hardly split the as Denman has caught up and between fences 19 and the last Deman 1 second in front of him on time

On the run in Denman slows dramatically and takes nearly 2 seconds longer to get up the hill.

It's not an exact Science but the time difference can be explained a lot by Denman dawdling up to the first.

I agree that if anything the ground was slower when Denman won. The other chases on the day would confirm that and I remember Ruby complaining it was tacky.

The hurdle races would also suggest they were going though the ground pretty easily which is often the case after or during rain......When it's drying out that's when it gets tacky.
 
The thing is when we talk about rating him. the time Conagree has recorded running a very similar race to Denman is what I would rate him on because they both dominated the pace....I reckon this horse is a bit of a Superstar

That put him over 180 which I reckon is hard to disagree with.........as far as him being a novice goes he's a pretty hairy assed novice at 8years
 
Last edited:
Dave G said:
Surely the fact that the winner is a novice allows us to expect even better next season and thus be closer to the 180 mark?
Click to expand...

He's an 8yo novice though, so unlikely to find much for anno domini, and his technique's pretty flawless too.
I'd be surprised if Djakadam doesn't prove a better horse eventually - if only for those 2 reasons.
 
Tanlic said:
The thing is when we talk about rating him. the time Conagree has recorded running a very similar race to Denman is what I would rate him on because they both dominated the pace....I reckon this horse is a bit of a Superstar

That put him over 180 which I reckon is hard to disagree with.........as far as him being a novice goes he's a pretty hairy assed novice at 8years
Click to expand...

According to EC's list, just 4 horses have achieved higher than 178 in the last 18 years, yet we had 3 in 1 race on Friday?
 
I have timed both horses from when they passed the starter stick ..with the red mark on it Tanlic..not the actual starter podium..or from when they start running..i'll look again but if you start timing from the marker stick you might get similar figures

Its not an exact millisecond situation..and the start..which i don't usually bother with ..because of this..where do you actually time from ...situation

up until yesterday i had only timed both from the first fence..so have gone back and added the starts to have a complete race comparison once i realised this was a pretty interesting comparison

re the ground...the going stick..which i personally don't follow..but i know some do..says it was slower re Coneygree..when you calculate the speed figures..admittedly having to adjust standard times due to the new method of official timing..the ground comes out the same both days..within a couple of ponds anyway...which obviously was what prompted the comparison

what i would do if i could access the videos of every race in 2008..i could time all the races from when they pass the starter stick and then know for sure we are comparing like with like..i can't access race videos for 2008 though

Just remember when looking at those official times from 2008..that they are all about 3 seconds slower than how they time them now. If you look at when the tapes go up in races at Cheltenham..you are looking at on average about the 3 seconds before they pass that starting marker

I personally haven't really got a view about the comparison..i thought i would leave it to you guys to put forward what you think.

I'm pretty happy the timings are ok though..i could stick them through some software and get really exact timings but there are only so many hours in a day
 
reet hard said:
According to EC's list, just 4 horses have achieved higher than 178 in the last 18 years, yet we had 3 in 1 race on Friday?
Click to expand...

Its not my list though..its the official marks given

the point is..182 might be a touch high..i agree..i wouldn't hang my hat on it..but its no more fanciful than some of the ones the official handicapper has handed out over the years..Long Run?..when he beat Denman..what a friend was there to hold it down..he ignored that and gave LR a rating he has never achieved before or since.

There is no what a friend to hold this down this year..but he rates Coneygree a stone behind Long Run??

my question was..has Smad Place run to his mark with everything in his favour and highly rated horses all around him?

We have some evidence here that the winner is better than 171..i think thats a cert..he may be over rated at 182.

But i'd favour nearer 182 than 171 by some way
 
My one conclusion about the cumulutive times are that at no point on overall time is Denman ahead of Coneygree at any point..so Coneygree would have led him same as he did every other horse in this years race

Like i said i don't usually bother with the run up..but seeing as its used energy and its over a furlong i think it has to be part of a proper comparison..if they only had half a furlong to go to the first then i might ignore it
 
tiggers1972 said:
Thing is DO how many times can we keep saying the same thing about LW?
Click to expand...

As often as he runs until they decide which race they want to win.

Connections of Wicklow Brave did something similar. High profile defeats until the day that mattered.

OK, so LW isn't a handicapper. But in the previous two years he was trained for one race. I believe he was trained for the Gold Cup this year (I backed him on the day) but he could have run his guts out the other day and finished fifth. I suspect they decided to let him run round when they realised how soft it had gone. I don't know what they'll target now. They might try and train him to get into next year's National off 150. But one thing I am sure of is that he is a 165+ horse.
 
EC1 said:
he is rated 154 and was beaten 27 lengths

that makes 181
Click to expand...

I only allow 0.7lbs per length at the Gold Cup trip, so the 27 lengths would work out at about 18lbs, probably a touch less in testing ground. These are the kinds of adjustments I recommend. It's probably closer to what the handicapper would do.
 
re the start Tanlic...Timeform have Coneygree's time to the 5th as 83.1..my time is 82.8..Simon Rowlands uses the starters roster to start from i believe...which is basically how i have timed them...so i think we pretty much have similar times

I'd say with hand timings you have to allow +/- 1 length tbh..i assume he uses software for his timings so they will be that little bit better than hand timing
 
Last edited:
Desert Orchid said:
I only allow 0.7lbs per length at the Gold Cup trip, so the 27 lengths would work out at about 18lbs, probably a touch less in testing ground. These are the kinds of adjustments I recommend. It's probably closer to what the handicapper would do.
Click to expand...

I agree its less than 1lb a length..but from what i can gather..the official handicapper uses 1lb = 1 length for all NH races..would stand to be corrected on that..but i'm pretty sure he does
 
reet hard said:
He's an 8yo novice though, so unlikely to find much for anno domini, and his technique's pretty flawless too.
I'd be surprised if Djakadam doesn't prove a better horse eventually - if only for those 2 reasons.
Click to expand...

I agree. The one reservation I have is that Djakadam looked to me to have had a much harder race. I think there's more chance of this race bottoming him. I hope I'm wrong. It would be great to have another two (three if RTR can improve and maybe four if Holywell gets his ground) 180+ horses taking each other on, although I suspect they'll want to avoid Coneygree until they can't, ie the Gold Cup.
 
just realised though DO

the 27 lengths is a time length...is it 4 lengths in a second they use at that trip now?..6.75 seconds

if you use Timeform's... time to poundage formula ...at 3m2.5f..6.75 seconds = 24lbs

which gives a 178 rating for the winner
 
Last edited:
Of course, were it not for the super-fast overall time, I'd suspect we may have a Hawk Wing Lockinge situation. The beaten horses that day appeared to run their form very closely but HW was miles in front. However, he ended up with a time that didn't back up the form. He probably made the others go too fast too early. Maybe Coneygree made them all go too fast too early the other day and the lesser horses, while finishing in relation to each other as their ratings entitled, were all together a similar amount behind where they would be in a more ordinarily-run race.

But I keep coming back to that very fast time.
 
I think we need to bear in mind that it looked an ordinary renewal beforehand.

Without taking too much away from Coneygree and Djakadam, the fact that effectively two novices have gone on to fill the first two places, suggests the race was not up to the usual standard. Bad races genereally don't throw-out stellar ratings, and I can't have it that Coneygree is anywhere near a 180 animal....yet.

That said, there's no reason why Coneygree and Djakadam can't improve even further next season, and I'd agree that the latter of the pair possibly has a little more scope. Add Don Poli and Vautour to the mix, and we have the makings of a Gold Cup next season, that would knock this one out the park in terms of class.
 
Last edited:
Back
Top