Cheltenham Gold Cup 2015

I wouldn't say it was impossible.

One more non-staying run in the King George (personally I suspect that Tizzard would attribute it to something else rather than distance)
Then they look at the RyanAir and say 'look we've won that already'
Then someone says doesn't the Champion Chase (more prestigious of course) look particularly vulnerable to a horse that's got near enough to Sprinter Sacre

I wouldn't think there's any chance of an NRNB getting caught out though and his price will be discounted. To be honest the 7/4 they're offering about Sprinter Sacre is probably as a good as anything as he's only lining up if he proves his fitness, and if he proves his fitness then he's odds on
 
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Depends what you're calling fitness, Warbler - and has Cue Card really proven his, since his own return from injury?
 
Cue Card doesn't really have the toe for a Champion Chase these days. The race for him at the Festival is the Ryanair, and they would be lunatics to run anywhere else.

Insofar as his level following his return is concerned, a small question-mark remains, but I'd say he's broadly run to my expectations in his outings so far this season. I see no real reasons for pessimism, as regards his ability to recover to his previous best.......not yet anyway.
 
The only ways I think you can make these kind of bets work is to target horses coming from injury or those which are heavily ground dependent and bet for heavy. Both carry risks

The first is that some horses (Simonsig would be an example) probably get over bet based on reputation. What you'd probably be better off looking for is novices who had their campaign cut short and have gone into open company forgotten, having never really fulfilled their potential. Defy Logic might be a candidate. If they turn up, the chances are they're only doing so because they've come back from injury successfully. If they don't come back, they don't turn up, and you get your refund

The ground issue carries more risk I reckon. A trainer might say he'll only run if its soft or heavy (Bog Warrior). Claisse declares G/S (when its really good) the horse turns up because the trainer/ connections can't resist it, and your money is done. NRNB allows you to put together a portfolio of heavy ground performers who will be priced much longer today than if it comes up soft, but you can't guarantee the horse will be withdrawn in the event of good ground, and that's the real downside. If you could, then it would be worth covering the possibility at prices which could easily be three times bigger today then they will if a 'ground dependent' bandwagon starts rolling in March
 
Warbler said:
What you'd probably be better off looking for is novices who had their campaign cut short and have gone into open company forgotten, having never really fulfilled their potential. Defy Logic might be a candidate. If they turn up, the chances are they're only doing so because they've come back from injury successfully. If they don't come back, they don't turn up, and you get your refund
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Felix Yonger as well. Ran in the wrong race at the Festival last season. Decent ground/two miles his optimum imo.
I've taken some 33s
 
The Young Master deserves a mention on this thread. He''s still a novice but who knows what they will do. The form of the race today looks rock solid.
 
The one thing that occurred to me through the race, was how beautifully they all jumped - it was a great advert for a handicap chase, and I think the form will stand a deal of scrutiny.

I'm not sure whether TYM will be a Gold Cup horse this season, but I will be having a dash on Houblon Des Obeaux in the Place market. He's very game, and just the type to run into the places at a big price
 
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Grasshopper said:
The one thing that occurred to me through the race, was how beautifully they all jumped - it was a great advert for a handicap chase, and I think the form will stand a deal of scrutiny.

I'm not sure whether TYM will be a Gold Cup horse this season, but I will be having a dash on Houblon Des Obeaux in the Place market. He's very game, and just the type to run into the places at a big price
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DO has just said to me Houblon Des Obeaux is the one to take out of the race for the Gold Cup. Le Reve can surely pick up a big pot along the way.
 
SlimChance said:
DO has just said to me Houblon Des Obeaux is the one to take out of the race for the Gold Cup. Le Reve can surely pick up a big pot along the way.
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Important to put my remark into context, I think, Slim. It was a counter to the suggestion that The Young Master looked a GC prospect. Off 161 and trying to give the winner 17lbs, HDO has put up one of those big handicapping runs that are usually good enough for a place in the Gold Cup. Compare that with the fact that Holywell was off 145 at Cheltenham! Venetia might have more of an eye on Aintree, though, knowing that the handicapper will let him in off a few pounds lower than his normal rating.

Plenty of racing to be done before the Gold Cup picture comes into proper focus.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Important to put my remark into context, I think, Slim. It was a counter to the suggestion that The Young Master looked a GC prospect. Off 161 and trying to give the winner 17lbs, HDO has put up one of those big handicapping runs that are usually good enough for a place in the Gold Cup. Compare that with the fact that Holywell was off 145 at Cheltenham! Venetia might have more of an eye on Aintree, though, knowing that the handicapper will let him in off a few pounds lower than his normal rating.

Plenty of racing to be done before the Gold Cup picture comes into proper focus.
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Thanks for clearing that up. It just felt like a good race today.
 
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I'd be concerned about the proximity of Hey Big Spender regarding this throwing up Gold Cup horses. Not to say that the race won't throw up winners, but Gold Cup horses that might place? Well it can happen of course, Mon Mome and Turpin Green are two that come to mind, and Houblon is no worse than those (probably better) but I'd keep the powder dry for now
 
Warbler said:
I'd be concerned about the proximity of Hey Big Spender regarding this throwing up Gold Cup horses. Not to say that the race won't throw up winners, but Gold Cup horses that might place? Well it can happen of course, Mon Mome and Turpin Green are two that come to mind, and Houblon is no worse than those (probably better) but I'd keep the powder dry for now
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The Gold Cup is one race I would really struggle to have a bet on before the day.
 
Grasshopper said:
The one thing that occurred to me through the race, was how beautifully they all jumped - it was a great advert for a handicap chase, and I think the form will stand a deal of scrutiny.

I'm not sure whether TYM will be a Gold Cup horse this season, but I will be having a dash on Houblon Des Obeaux in the Place market. He's very game, and just the type to run into the places at a big price
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I was there and backed him today. What a good card and meeting this has become in recent years.

Hes a lovely determined horse but would even the gc distance be enough? He seemed just a bit outpaced at a crucial stage. The other worry is that aside from one hurdle win earlier in career, his Cheltenham form hasn't been good at all
 
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Question now is do we think Conti wins the Gold Cup?

Last year is stuck in my mind though.
 
I can't have Conti - horses don't with the GC at the third time of asking. I've placed-laid a little at a shade over 6/4, and will definitely be taking him on in the Win market when I muster the cojones to do it properly.
 
It strikes me that with so many candidates seemingly at the best below 3 miles that the market is vulnerable to a strong handicapper doing a sort of Mon Momme Lake kariba type of run at what it is likely close to a three figure price at the moment
 
Frankel said:
Question now is do we think Conti wins the Gold Cup?

Last year is stuck in my mind though.
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He's got every chance of course. Surely that was the best we've seen from him today and i'm sure he's never jumped better.

the fact that it's his third time is neither here nor there of course. He's 8 and probably peeking. He may well have won but for one mistake that first time anyway and is looking far less prone to jumping errors now (the best trainer of them all improves his horses repeatedly). Will never quite know about last year but every horse can be allowed a stinker
 
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Change of tactic and if they deploy that he wins in March. He's clearly miles better than any other 3 miler and the only doubt is what happened last year but that was a surreal ending and even Bob's Worth didn't stride on.

Great jumper, not short of speed and laden with stamina. Guys, please keep laying him.
 
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