Cheltenham Gold Cup 2015

Silviniaco Conti has really won no stronger a KG this year than he did last, and has not enhanced his Gold Cup credentials in winning today. All that's happened is that we've had confirmation that Cue Card, Champagne Fever and Dynaste have no chance of getting home in the Gold Cup, and will likely run elsewhere.

Does this dilute the challenge to SC more than it did beforehand? I don't particularly think so, or at least, though I'd concede the potential threat of CF would appear to have been removed, but that still leaves SC with Bobs Worth, Boston Bob, Holywell, Lord Windermere and others who weren't skelped at Kempton, to beat in the Gold Cup. He is probably a worthy favourite based on the form he's displayed so far this season, but it has to be questionable whether he can run up to that level of form at Cheltenham.....given he has failed to do so a couple of times already.

He is one to take on at 4/1. The value in the race lies with the double-figure prices.
 
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one thing to bear in mind though Grass..there is a difference from when SC last tried the GC

Since we put the cheekpieces on him he has been a different animal. 'I think he is a better .

And to be fair,,he does look better with them, his jumping today and just the overall way he went about it was pretty impressive

i wouldn't be place laying him mesen..you can place lay 10 a day.. every day with better chance of a positive outcome than waiting until March..for a risky..imo..one
 
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I think he is also a better animal when running in cheekpieces, compared to when he doesn't run in them. His record backs this up, so I'm not going to dispute that.......I just don't think he will be as good round Cheltenham, as he is round Kempton - blinkers or not.

Everything about his record suggests the Kempton track is ideal for him, and Cheltenham less so. The last time he won on an undulating/stiff track was in the Persian War as a novice hurdler. Couple my concerns about the track, with he fact that he's already twice failed to win the Gold Cup, then add those horses who actually stay 3m2f into the mix, and I'm happy to lay him at 6/4 to Place. To be fair, the TBP market is as fresh-as-paint, and I'm not going to go either rich or poor on the back of the bets I've had today.
 
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No. He's not run to that form once at Cheltenham. Not twice. We don't know about the other occasion and anyway, he was all of 6 then.

I would safely bet that he would have comfortably beaten all that list today. It might be that he doesn't like the course at cheltenham but he looks too far ahead of the rest now for that to be a conclusive factor.
 
That's inconclusive though grass. There are not exactly many suitable races on undulating courses to go for instead of of his natural targets.
 
Clive, a Fall is a Fall.....and I think it is relevant if we're discussing the track possibly not being in his favour/to his liking. He's had three runs at Cheltenham now, defeat in the Bula and the twice he's been turned over in the Gold Cup. Even if you ignore the fall (you shouldn't, imo, but let';s play), you have to be concerned about the track potentially being against him, or at least, potentially compromising his ability to run up to his very best (for arguments sake, let's say to the level he ran to today).

I've weighed-up the arguments, and decided that - at 6/4 - I'm happy to take him on in the Place market, because he's pretty-much won as expected today, and with Fever being the only opponent whose GC pretensions have been exposed, the cut in Silvi's price is too great.....hence, it's time to oppose him.

Appreciate it's a wholly personal view, and others will undoubtedly see it differently.
 
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He was going very nicely when he fell and he was a less proficient jumper then anyway. I will admit that after last years race I thought it could be a course thing. Was first reaction andt was as if he just didnt like the climb. He never ran at sandown too which may or may not have been deliberate. Without putting finger on it he just runs like a flat track horse but I think he's moved further ahead now. I take James comment about the extra 2f too but I do back horses to add stamina as they mature.
 
Folk talk about Lord Windermere finishing off fastest (I don't think he was doing actually) and Silvi emptying, but there is that bit of me wodnering if the first three home last term didn't actually have the good fortune to get on a 'golden strip' just when they needed it. All of them came from exactly the same point on the track running slightly detached from the others. What have they done since? 0-0-5 If you take them out and say they fluked it for finding some appreciably better ground, then Silvi has won

I think they'll likely try again with Champagne Fever (probably the Irish Hennessey) as he's run flat this time of year before. I have to say though, my impression was that he didn't see the trip out
 
aye..no one can really explain the end of that race..its one of the oddest i have seen..it was illogical to the eye..something strange was at play..mind you i'm sure someone will tell you shortly what went off Warbler:)
 
If someone had said before the race that Conti and Bob jumped the last first and second and both finished unplaced, I would have said they should be sectioned. Goes in the unexplained files.

Though I'm sure that was Lord Windermere running a good race in the John Durkan Warbler.
 
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Bob's Worth - much as I love him - is suffering from the seven barrows bermuda triangle. Lord Windermere could quite possibly never win another race, Champagne Fever ran to form over fences and Holywell would be double carpet for the Gold Cup if it wasn't for the trainers record of priming them for the day - his record so far this season is on par with Lord Windermere's las year following his RSA.

SC jumps beautifully, stays and has half a stone in hand of everything else. Young enough in previous years, next March will be his.
 
"Youth" is not a factor when a horse already has 16 chase starts under his belt. The suggestion that he will improve with age, is fundamentally-flawed, imo, and there's scant evidence that SC has a half-stone in hand anywhere other than Kempton.
 
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clivex said:
I certainly don't believe that that performance is simply course related .
Click to expand...

Amen to that, Clivex.
His first run at Cheltenham wasn't halfway far enough, his 2nd he was travelling as well as (better than, imo) anything when he came down. and he was held up last year in what turned into a dash to the line, which is plainly not his forte.
He won last year's KG by virtue of the soft ground and strong pace set by Cue Card, only getting on top late on as CC died, but on quicker ground and a softer pace this year had the race sewn up from a piece further out. That was an improved performance today, and though PN's always described him as ''just a galloper'' he's definitely been sharper in his last 2 races, and I see no real reason he won't maintain that progress in March.
 
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Is it just me but, although he's a very good horse I just can't get emotional about Siviniaco Conti. Maybe it's because I can't pronounce his name [it sounds like an anagram of something else...].
 
It's all about the course. The front two today were the only two in the race who had won Grade 1's at Kempton.

The race was stacked full of Cheltenham Festival winners, seven contests all told. SC contributed none to that score.
 
That's nonsense. Al ferof has only run there once before and that was in same race last year. Cf has never run there and menorah is 3/5 there.

Al ferof has won well at ascot which is pretty similar. That just leaves cue card and it's debatable whether the course is the issue with him .
 
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The King George has a history of multiple winners that the Gold Cup doesn't come anywhere near. SC's form at Cheltenham isn't in the same league.
 
That's been discussed already. It's hardly conclusive .

it has multiple winners because it so often goes to the very best horse in training regardless of course. It is a fair test .
 
It doesn't need to be conclusive. It's enough of a doubt to make 9/2 a wank price.

And he'll be bigger on the day anyway.
 
If you're looking at laying the horse (and certainly for the place) it's not the actual horse that you assess, but rather the depth of credible opposition

It's why Hurricane Fly despite being a similar price and a comparatively superior horse, was a better prospect to lay than Sire de Grugy last season. To be honest, I wouldn't be queuing up to get stuck into Silvi after today's evidence. I think there's four credibel candidates that you can scratch from the scene on that. I'm happy to accept that he's improved, not by much, but improved none the less, in what is starting to look like a wobbly year
 
It will take a catching performance from something else for that to be the case and I can't see it at the moment . If anything jumps and dominates a grade one field as well as today between now and then I will be a bit surprised.
 
a stayer who loves the track will beat SC. so can Bobs come back....

other wise its time to hunt out a proven 4 miler.. SC cannot win from the front.
 
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