Cheltenham Gold Cup 2015

SC won't need to win from the front, just be in a position where his lack of a gear change won't disadvantage him.
Be wrong to underrate Bobs worth though, and for the same reason that many wrote SC off - last year's Gold Cup just wasn't run to bring their stamina into play.
 
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I think you're a bit quick to write-off Conti, Digger. He clearly has a form chance, and a repeat of the level he ran to at Kempton would see him hard to beat. My position is more based on his current price, than his ability.
 
Digger has backed STFD ante-post, fonz, hence why he's pushing his fruit-loop, pie-in-the-sky "A 4m handicapper will win the race" theory.

Please don't encourage him.
 
Grasshopper said:
Digger has backed STFD ante-post, fonz, hence why he's pushing his fruit-loop, pie-in-the-sky "A 4m handicapper will win the race" theory.

Please don't encourage him.
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The dream of AP shovelling the coal on at the bottom of the hill and finding plenty up it a la synchronised shouldn't be dismissed Grass, I just couldn't envisage backing any of the market leaders in the race again.
 
fonz said:
The dream of AP shovelling the coal on at the bottom of the hill and finding plenty up it a la synchronised shouldn't be dismissed Grass, I just couldn't envisage backing any of the market leaders in the race again.
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To be fair, I am a teensy bit more worried now, than I was when I first told him he was "full of shi*te!". :lol:
 
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Lexus prices

Bobs Worth (7/2)in, Boston Bob (5), Lord Windermere (5), Road To Riches (7), Sam Winner (8), Carlingford Lough (10), First Lieutenant (12), Home Farm (20)out, On His Own (20), Texas Jack (40)out
 
Notice a quote from Willie indicating he thinks the ground has come wrong for Boston Bob. I don't get this at all. First off it doesn't look that soft, second there is no evidence that the horse won't go on ground with cut.
 
Glad to hear King still targeting the GC for Smad Place. Always seems to run a big race come March on better ground & his record around Cheltenham the past 3 festivals is very consistent.
2 of the past 3 years runnings of this have thrown up a surprise result in many ways (synchronised & Lord Windermere) so prepared to take on those at the top of the betting.
2nd season chasers also seem to prosper.
Was happy to take 33's e/w as if he runs I can definitely see him being bang there or thereabouts.
 
Can't see past Holywell...........Jonjo as we all know is as shrewd as they come and this horse has even better credentials than Synchronised who many thought would be too slow did.

When has Jonjo ever sent a horse for the Gold Cup who has not run his race. 14/1 looks a stonking ew bet to me as he is sure to be half those odds on the day

Anyone remember what he did with Don't Push It before the national to get him spot on for the big one?

He ran him in a hurdle race...........well he's adopting the same plan for Holywell to bring him on just in time for the big day.
 
Tanlic said:
Can't see past Holywell...........
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Nice to hear someone else hasn't lost faith. I admit Road To Riches's previous run had me wondering if his curve would take him past Holywell and then the talk of B W being as good as ever. BTW, I thought BW ran really well the other day. Geraghty gave him a very easy race.
 
I'm also a Holywell fan.....but I'd like to see him jump fences rather than hurdles in his prep-race......he isn't the finished-arcticle yet as a steeplechaser, and could do with a bit more experience before taking in the Gold Cup.
 
For me the problem with Bobs Worth and Silvinico Conti is that even with hindsight applied they should have been fighting out the finish of last years Gold Cup.

For them to carry my money, you have to write off the most reliable evidence of their Gold Cup credentials. If SC didnt run in the Gold Cup last year, he would be shorter than 2/1, IMO.
 
Time may tell that I'm way off the mark but I'm in that camp that is prepared to write off last years Gold cup as one of those races, either that or accept the fact that Lord Windermere, On His Own and The Giant Bolster are the three best 3m 2f horses in training - and with no disrespect to connections - I can't bring myself to do that.

Yes, I know that Cheltenham course form adds to the equation but I will definitely be giving Silviniaco one more chance to prove he can handle it, simply because he is significantly ahead of anything else and won't be beaten for lack of stamina. Even Dessie, who hated the place, managed to bag it one year.

and I must add that while it certainly isn't easy to make all in a Gold cup, at least they now know from Boxing day that if the pace isn't strong and Fehily feels he has to then the horse is capable of it.

Bobs Worth on the other hand looks to be suffering from a bout Henderson's seeming lack of ability to keep them at the top of their game.
 
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Think it was Simon Rowlands who first pointed out that the speedy finish of last year's GC indicated it wasn't truly run, and if you accept that premise, then it's not a massive leap of faith to suggest that both SC and BW were undone by the earlier lack of pace. Certainly, they both travelled well up to a point, and the form of both horses (before and since) indicates they need a proper test.
I'd be prepared to accept BG's word that Bobs Worth was incommoded by the Lexus ground, btw.
 
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Agree with all that wilson. Especially last line and as with kings you feel you have to back them early in career, not later. Compares badly with nichols whos progression with sc and also sam winner is fine training. Yet again.
 
Yes Clive, horses like Tidal Bay and Neptune Collonges are certainly not alone in adding testament to the trainer.

and clearly no need to mention the obvious one.
 
wilsonl said:
Even Dessie, who hated the place, managed to bag it one year.
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You're not seriously offering that race as evidence for anything, are you, wilsonl?

It was barely raceable and Dessie and Yahoo were the only two who coped with it. Yahoo was a mudlover so probably ran his race but he would have been off 147 (I had him on 153) so Desert Orchid, a 190 beast at his best, probably ran to 155, two and a half stone below form, on the day. In any other year he would have been beaten out of sight and the belief that he didn't act around Cheltenham would have prevailed. Silviniaco Conti might be one of those who runs 7lbs below form round there. We won't have any further evidence for or against until he attempts it. Given that he looks better than ever this season, he could run a few lengths better than last season, beat OHO and LW but still not be placed.
 
Desert Orchid said:
You're not seriously offering that race as evidence for anything, are you, wilsonl?

It was barely raceable and Dessie and Yahoo were the only two who coped with it. Yahoo was a mudlover so probably ran his race but he would have been off 147 (I had him on 153) so Desert Orchid, a 190 beast at his best, probably ran to 155, two and a half stone below form, on the day. In any other year he would have been beaten out of sight and the belief that he didn't act around Cheltenham would have prevailed. Silviniaco Conti might be one of those who runs 7lbs below form round there. We won't have any further evidence for or against until he attempts it. Given that he looks better than ever this season, he could run a few lengths better than last season, beat OHO and LW but still not be placed.
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I'm using it as evidence that class will tell and your response, whether intentionally or not, would go some way to echoing that. The ground was indeed barely race-able and yes, Desert Orchid ran well below par but so apparently did everything else and while time may tell that SC truly doesn't like Cheltenham, this years bunch are nothing special at this stage.

The fact that informed people on this forum are putting forward Holywell as a viable winner says it all. This is a horse that won the handicap nine months ago off 145, a mark 35lbs below Bobs Worth when he ran in last years Gold cup. We all know Jonjo is great a priming them for the day, that the horse is young, on a seemingly upward curve (at least based on his spring form) and has proven course form et al but there is no escaping the fact that top class 3 milers are thin on the ground at the moment.

And it's much easier for me to forgive SC one "bad" course run as opposed to living in the hope that Holywell can put another dismal start to the season behind him and find the in-excess-of-a-stone improvement he needs to figure.

The prices obviously factor that in and there may well be better value in backing something at double figure odds in the expectation that SC will run significantly below form on the track but if he doesn't he wins and is there a greater than 25% chance that he will run sub 3-4 lbs below par ?

I personally don't think so.
 
He may have run off 145, Lee, but he clearly put in a performance/mark appreciably higher than that in the race itself, and followed-up with an easy win in a G1 novice.

Whilst I agree he has it to prove, I don't believe he has as much to find, as your analysis suggests. In an open year, he is one of the less exposed contenders, and it's questionable whether his current price reflects that, given his prep-run over 2m4f was always for ignoring, and his second-outing looks anomalous in most respects.

I'm much closer to optimistic/hopeful than I am confident/bullish, but I think it would be foolish to write him off just yet.
 
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