Cheltenham Gold Cup 2015

I'm not writing him off Grass. He certainly has a chance, especially based on his Aintree win.

I just think he's one of many who could end up chasing Sivlinaco Conti home because we have a two time King George winner that we know stays - unlike previous Kempton heroes who don't quite see the Gold cup trip out.

As I've said I'm preparing to forgive him one run, and let's face it he looked the winner jumping the last in that supposedly bad run and if he runs 3-4 lb below form he still runs to an OR of c. 177.

Do you really believe horses like Jonjo's have that in them, even allowing for the improvement Cheltenham in the spring time is likely to bring ?
 
According to the handicapper, Lord Windermere ran to 163 winning last season. Holywell's current mark is.....163 (SC is 174 but was 177 this time last year). Given that Bobs Worth appears to be regressing and SC is 0 from 3 at Cheltenham, at today's prices I'd be looking at the ones who are good at the course, Holywell and Lord Windermere both 2 from 2, and the improver Road To Riches. While SC's prep races are limited to flat tracks it's hard to see 3/1 as any kind of value.
 
The BHA may have left SC unchanged on 174 but I'd have upped him a few pounds personally.

Not that that would have any bearing come March of course.
 
I was all over Conti at Kempton, but will oppose him here. As already alluded too 0/3 at HQ, also his best form seems to be on flat tracks too.
 
reet hard said:
Can't speak for his logic, but winning a steadily run RSA and not lasting home in the Hennessy would hardly support that view.
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Did I misread your original post, reet?

Did you not say Simon Rowlands had found that the Gold Cup developed into a sprint finish? Does Simon not almost invariably conclude that to win such a race from a held-up position entitles the winner to be marked up considerably? What would the previous year's RSA or the Hennessy have to do with how LW would be rated for his Gold Cup performance?
 
tiggers1972 said:
I was all over Conti at Kempton, but will oppose him here. As already alluded too 0/3 at HQ, also his best form seems to be on flat tracks too.
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The 0/3 stat is becoming a bit of a mantra and dare i say a bloody lazy one? Reet went through this before and it doesn't bare too much scrutiny. The flat track issue may be more pertinent mind.

i have a stat for Holywell. This season 110% of the time he can't win crap races
 
wilsonl said:
This is a horse that won the handicap nine months ago off 145, a mark 35lbs below Bobs Worth when he ran in last years Gold cup.
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I suggest interpreting form as literally as that is bad for your betting bank, wilsonl. There will be some years when winning that race off that mark would lead to rating of under 155 but I had Holywell running to 163+p and was first, I believe, on here to recommend him at that point for the Gold Cup when he was 50/1 (not 4/1f). It was also before his impressive Aintree win (in which some really smart horses were beaten, including the subsequent Hennessy winner who was over 20 lengths behind him) and the runaway Topham victory of his immediate victim Ma Filleule. The Cheltenham form was already proving as exceptionally hot as I'd suspected. How unreasonable was it to expect a novice to improve 10lbs over the following 12 months to the mark I already had Silviniaco Conti on, a mark he failed to hit by several pounds in the Gold Cup? That was my logic at the time.

I have Bobs Worth's best rating some way ahead of SC's best Cheltenham figure. If he comes back to his best he might be good enough to beat Holywell. I wouldn't be backing Holywell now, not at 14/1, but I fully expect him to turn up in March ready for his life.

I don't see that DO's class had anything to do with his winning the Gold Cup any more than Red Marauder's class had to do with his winning the Grand National in similar ground.
 
Can't argue with any of that DO and I agree insomuch that I had/have Holywell down as a mid 160 horse in the right conditions - albeit more confidently after his commanding win in the Mildmay Novices so kudos to you for snapping up the 50/1 earlier than that.

Which means he has now surpassed his highest hurdle rating by roughly a stone but he's not particularly big and regardless of inexperience that may be his limit and I just think he'll need to improve on that again by at least another half a stone to beat Silviniaco Conti - even at Cheltenham.

but what surprises me most is that people are so quick to forgive him two poor runs this year on the evidence that he improved late season last year but yet aren't prepared to forgive SC one apparently bad run.
 
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What I don't buy is that it was the lack of pace that beat Conti in the Gold Cup. I can't have LW and OHO having more boot especially as Conti got the 1st run.
Where I can give him some hope is the cheek pieces. Also the fact he apparently had some physical issues which are now sorted.
He is the one I was mad keen on last year to take it and was stunned at the end of the race. I would like him to win as he is the best 3 miler around.
Just something telling me it's the hill that he won't get up. Will gladly be proved wrong.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Did I misread your original post, reet?

Did you not say Simon Rowlands had found that the Gold Cup developed into a sprint finish? Does Simon not almost invariably conclude that to win such a race from a held-up position entitles the winner to be marked up considerably? What would the previous year's RSA or the Hennessy have to do with how LW would be rated for his Gold Cup performance?
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I'd assumed you were referring to LW's stamina.
IIRC, SR gave no verdict other than it wasn't a result to trust.
 
wilsonl said:
Time may tell that I'm way off the mark but I'm in that camp that is prepared to write off last years Gold cup as one of those races, either that or accept the fact that Lord Windermere, On His Own and The Giant Bolster are the three best 3m 2f horses in training - and with no disrespect to connections - I can't bring myself to do that.

Yes, I know that Cheltenham course form adds to the equation but I will definitely be giving Silviniaco one more chance to prove he can handle it, simply because he is significantly ahead of anything else and won't be beaten for lack of stamina. Even Dessie, who hated the place, managed to bag it one year.

and I must add that while it certainly isn't easy to make all in a Gold cup, at least they now know from Boxing day that if the pace isn't strong and Fehily feels he has to then the horse is capable of it.

Bobs Worth on the other hand looks to be suffering from a bout Henderson's seeming lack of ability to keep them at the top of their game.
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You are confusing lack of ability with the law of averages. Nicky has upwards of 150 horses in his care and it is inevitable some of them are going to hit lows at some point in their careers.

Bobs Worth was actually a big surprise to Nicky Henderson no one expected him to reach the heights he did.

Despite winning todays Neptune trial a few years back NH decided to go for the AB and it wasn't at that time just about the longer trip he thought he wasn't good enough to beat a Willie Mullins hotpot (SO something???) and ran Minella Class instead. .

The fact is he just kept improving and reached the heights not expected of him with the help of Nicky henderson who won the Hennessy and the Gold Cup with the horse and you criticise the man because the horse who has had a lot of hard races is finding things tougher these days????? You can not be serious. The horse has won races he probably would never have won under someone elses care......he wasn't exactly a classic gold cup winner and I think you are expecting way too much if you think he can win another
 
Compared with the very best trainer of them all tanlic, he falls well short of keeping them at the top of their game. Hard to argue with that and bobs worth hasn't exactly been raced intensively.

Keeping a horse at oeak of abilities over many seasons is I think, the very best way to judge a trainers real abilities. All do it with some but some do it with a lot more than others.
 
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Tanlic said:
The fact is he just kept improving and reached the heights not expected of him with the help of Nicky henderson who won the Hennessy and the Gold Cup with the horse and you criticise the man because the horse who has had a lot of hard races is finding things tougher these days????? You can not be serious. The horse has won races he probably would never have won under someone elses care......he wasn't exactly a classic gold cup winner and I think you are expecting way too much if you think he can win another
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No question BW has over-achieved but I think it's hard to argue he's had a lot of hard races. Raced twice in his GC year, 3 times last season and prob no more than twice this season.
 
King's Palace has been entered in this Years Gold Cup !
BetVictor, who tweeted about the entry, currently not offering a price at all.
As short as 16/1 with BET365 and as big as 33/1 with StanJames...... Interesting:whistle:
 
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Double Handful said:
King's Palace has been entered in this Years Gold Cup !
BetVictor, who tweeted about the entry, currently not offering a price at all.
As short as 16/1 with BET365 and as big as 33/1 with StanJames...... Interesting:whistle:
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Would love a punt at that NRNB....
 
Typical Pipe but there is no way he will run unless it cuts up badly. It's an average year but he's got more than a stone to find to win an average GC.
 
No need, the media must be hard up for something to write about if this is supposed to be big news

David Pipe already said it's only an entry and he's just covering all options.

Trainers often do this just incase the star players get injured, catch a cold or whatever and what looked like being a good race becomes a very average one.

As things stand I would put him at 1/20 to run in the RSA
 
Road To Riches goes straight to Cheltenham.

Pricewise gives his verdict tomorrow. Who do we think he'll put up?
 
Frankel said:
Road To Riches goes straight to Cheltenham.

Pricewise gives his verdict tomorrow. Who do we think he'll put up?
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Carlingford Lough?

I have a bit of time on my hands this evening. My options are to pine for some time ahead of Only Connect and what Victoria Coren and I could do together or study the Gold Cup. I might take half-an-hour off to watch Only Connect.
 
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