Cheltenham Gold Cup 2015

You'd tend to think that Many Clouds needs it soft. He was beaten 20 lengths by Holywell on good at Aintree and I'd fancy Holywell to come out on top again if there's any good in the going description. But then I'm on at 50/1 so I would say that. :cool:
I'd also point out that Holywell beat a 132 horse by 3/4 length on his last run before the 2014 Festival. Both he and Many Clouds were rated 145 going into Cheltenham and he won a competitive handicap whereas Many Clouds was brought down when beaten in the RSA. Holywell is currently 163 and Many Clouds 165 so the claim of 'most improved' has some substance but that rating has been earned on proper winter soft ground which you don't often see at the Festival these days.
 
archie said:
I'd also point out that Holywell beat a 132 horse by 3/4 length on his last run before the 2014 Festival. Both he and Many Clouds were rated 145 going into Cheltenham and he won a competitive handicap whereas Many Clouds was brought down when beaten in the RSA.
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Holywell was on my short list for the handicap last year but I discounted him due to his horrendous jumping in his previous race. It's anyone's guess what he'll do in the Gold Cup.
 
Tanlic said:
You obviously were unaware that Beat That had only been in a few weeks before he ran. Big as a barn door and badly in need of a run he drifted from 4/1 to 8/1 and bigger on the machine.
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I wasn't aware of this but that makes no odds, I thought Beat That ran a fine race on comeback, like you say he cruised round and blatantly blew up.

No matter what the market said, there was no way Holywell was on the ball at Carlisle. Blew up and looked after by AP.

I'd strongly fancy him to confirm reverse that form with Many Clouds on better ground, just like he did last season.
 
"McCoy is unlikely to be aboard at Cheltenham next month, assuming Sunday's Hennessy Gold Cup winner Carlingford Lough makes it to Cheltenham for his boss JP McManus"

If Richie Mclernon rides I wouldn't touch him with a barge pole.
 
Tanlic said:
"McCoy is unlikely to be aboard at Cheltenham next month, assuming Sunday's Hennessy Gold Cup winner Carlingford Lough makes it to Cheltenham for his boss JP McManus"

If Richie Mclernon rides I wouldn't touch him with a barge pole.
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so AP has got off it asap..tells you all you need to know
 
Desert Orchid said:
See More Business could be a very dodgy jumper but it didn't stop him when it mattered.

Holywell made mistakes last season and it did'nt stop him.

I wouldn't let any minor concerns about jumping put me off him.
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I know what you mean, DO.....but I was hoping for a real confidence-booster, and it just didn't happen.
 
if it was good enough..why would he be bothered who owns it now?

i don't see AP giving up a GC winner when it could be his last ride ever

if you had just ridden a potential GC winner..would you give it up when you are retiring any day?
 
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EC1 said:
if it was good enough..why would he be bothered who owns it now?

i don't see AP giving up a GC winner when it could be his last ride ever

if you had just ridden a potential GC winner..would you give it up when you are retiring any day?
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If there's damn all between them, he's obviously going to ride the JP horse. He has been a consummate professional for his whole career so why would he say to JP "I'm not riding for you" now after all these years. If he thinks Holywell has the better chance I'm sure he'll talk to JP and see what they can do but as it stands he's hardly going to to tell JP to sling his hook, even if he only has a couple of months left.
 
EC1 said:
if it was good enough..why would he be bothered who owns it now?

i don't see AP giving up a GC winner when it could be his last ride ever

if you had just ridden a potential GC winner..would you give it up when you are retiring any day?
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This doesn't stand scrutiny, EC.

McCoy has a retainer with McManus and a McManus horse has just won the Irish Hennessy. Holywell could do precisely nothing today at Kelso, to elevate his GC claims ahead of Carlingford Lough. And even if he had done, the question would be; so what?

We all know McManus is a good sport, and has allowed McCoy to ride for others against him, when those others have clearly had a better form chance. But, now that AP has announced his retirement, this was always going to be about McCoy demonstrating loyalty to the man who has paid his (handsome) wages for the best part of 15 years.

Unless JP was running Quixall Crossett (and it's still a surprise that Frank Berry never offered £1M for that yoke), and AP was offered the ride on Silviniaco Conti, there was never any danger that McCoy was going to ride for anyone other than McManus in the Gold Cup. Not even for a second.

Edit: Basically what thehorsesmouth said.
 
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why would he tell him to sling his hook? I never thought he would

all he would say is that Holywell has a far better chance..and seeing as it will be the last shot at the GC..can i ride it?

nothing is set in stone is it when you are retiring

we are labouring a point that doesn't really need to be laboured

if Holywell was a GC horse..AP would do all he could to get on it.
 
Grasshopper said:
This doesn't stand scrutiny, EC.

McCoy has a retainer with McManus and a McManus horse has just won there Irish Hennessy. Holywell could do precisely nothing today at Kelso, to elevate his GC claims ahead of Carlingford Lough. And even id he had done, the question would be; so what?

We all know McManus is a good sport, and has allowed McCoy to ride for others against him, when those others have clearly had a better form chance. But, now that AP has announced his retirement, this was always going to be about McCoy demonstrating loyalty to the man who has paid his (handsome) wages for the best part of 15 years.

Unless JP was running Quixall Crossett (and it's still a surprise that Frank Berry never offered £1M for that yoke), and AP was offered the ride on Silviniaco Conti, there was never any danger that McCoy was going to ride for anyone other than McManus in the Gold Cup. Not even for a second.

Edit: Basically what thehorsesmouth said.
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yes he could show AP something..he could get the feel of the horse..he would know with his experience if H was the deal

i think you all get obsessed a bit with this jockey trainer thing tbh..if AP really wanted to ride H ..JP would let him

we are all guessing what goes off between JP and AP so no one is right or wrong
 
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But he wouldn't....because CL is just as much - if not more so - a GC horse than Holywell is.

Holywell would need to have been a country-mile clear on form, before McCoy would even consider it as an option.
 
EC1 said:
yes he could show AP something..he could get the feel of the horse..he would know with his experience if H was the deal

i think you all get obsessed a bit with this jockey trainer thing tbh..if AP really wanted to ride H ..JP would let him
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I've not disputed that JP would let him.

But in this scenario, asking the question would never have occurred to McCoy in the first place.
 
Here's why.

No matter what he did, it was impossible...impossible...for Holywell to demonstrate he was a better horse than Carlingford Lough in that race today. That much I'm sure we can agree on.

On that basis, AP McCoy asking to get off CL and onto Holywell would be total guesswork on his part......and he isn't going to give up the chance of a GC-winning ride, and flick McManus the V's in the process, based on guesswork. He isn't that stupid and has too much class to do so.

That's how I know.
 
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What price CL gets a stone-bruise in three-weeks time and McCoy rides Holywell??

:lol:
 
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His comments after Synchronised's win would strongly suggest he won't get off CL - paraphrasing - "the only thing that I haven't liked about being retained by JP McManus is that I haven't been able to deliver enough wins at the highest level for him".
 
simmo said:
His comments after Synchronised's win would strongly suggest he won't get off CL - paraphrasing - "the only thing that I haven't liked about being retained by JP McManus is that I haven't been able to deliver enough wins at the highest level for him".
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All roads lead to Frank Berry.

In the course of human history, only Pablo Escobar has punted more sh*it.
 
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thehorsesmouth said:
I wasn't aware of this but that makes no odds, I thought Beat That ran a fine race on comeback, like you say he cruised round and blatantly blew up.

No matter what the market said, there was no way Holywell was on the ball at Carlisle. Blew up and looked after by AP.

I'd strongly fancy him to confirm reverse that form with Many Clouds on better ground, just like he did last season.
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While you were writing your post I was writing on the AP thread saying Many Clouds was the most improved staying chaser in training :)

I don't know which form book you are reading but if it's the Sporting Life website I suggest you ignore it completely and go and watch Many Cloud's run in the RSA.

His form on good ground would lead you to think he doesn't go on good but nothing could be further from the truth.

At least the racing Post said going ok when brought down but I would argue he was going better than ok,

Leighton Aspell for me had him exactly where he wanted him to be he was travelling really well he and hadn't asked him a thing when he was brought down.

By the time Aintree came round there's every chance he was over the top like dozens of Cheltenham runners are

Whatever the reason I wouldn't have thought it was the ground he travelled way too well for a long way horse suffering from discomfort.

One thing that can't be argued with is Many Clouds has improved tons since last season, maybe as much as 20lbs and there could be more to come.
So far we have seen nothing to suggest Holywell is as good as he wasbut then again it does come down to the way Jonjo trains them for the big day
Synchronised and Don't Push It being 2 prime examples.

Even if I am wrong and Many Coulds does need softish ground to be seen at his best where is it written that he won't get just that at Cheltenham.

I have pointed this out before and I have researched it. Cheltenham start this year earlier than it has for long time.

The 9th of March and over the last 5 years races that took place on that date were run on heavy, Soft and Good to Soft with very few courses racing on good ground.

Sandown did race on Good ground and a couple of others but the majority of meeting were run on soft.

I backed Holywell and The Great Bolster and greened up on both then put the profit on Many Clouds so I am honestly not that bothered nor am I confident I did the right thing.

My concerns lie with Faugheen Sprinter Sacre and Peace and co so I'll let you guys work out what will win the Gold Cup because there's every chance I might change my mind 3 times before the race.
 
Tanlic said:
No offense but aren't you aftertiming a bit?

On the book at the time he was 13 lbs ahead of Many Clouds and 8lbs ahead of Eduard you couldn't possibly have said that before the race with any conviction
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Wash your mouth out. I suggest you take a look at the Nicky Richards thread.
I fancied Eduard that day incorrectly. Though I clearly had Holywell trotting up 3rd best.
 
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