Cheltenham Handicap Watch

Maxbet said:
Needed half the field above him to come out, to get a run!
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It would have been interesting for sure because they way he'd been campaigned this season you'd think the Irish tax could easily have been about 7lb, which putting him up to 142 would have definitely seen him get in but if the BHA decided to give him less than that he'd have missed out.

So in contrary to most Irish connections they'd have actually wanted the increase. There was a case within the last couple of years IIRC (Mullins horse ?) where the horse was actually left alone on it's HRI mark, arguably just to deny it a run and make a mockery of the BHA by hosing up.
 
Slim said:
Could someone ask a few bookmakers on Twitter to quote Tiger Tap Tap for the County Hurdle please?
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See Tiger Tap Tap declared and Jocked up (Danny Mullins) for the Grade 2 over 2m at Naas 3:10 this Sunday.
Townend Jocked up on Mt. Leinster for same race. Remains to be seen which, if any of the 2 actually run.
No betting yet, but expect Andy Dufresne will be FAV
 
Double Handful said:
See Tiger Tap Tap declared and Jocked up (Danny Mullins) for the Grade 2 over 2m at Naas 3:10 this Sunday.
Townend Jocked up on Mt. Leinster for same race. Remains to be seen which, if any of the 2 actually run.
No betting yet, but expect Andy Dufresne will be FAV
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Dear God. Forget the County so.
 
Slim said:
County Hurdle

Is Elixir De Nutz being handicapped for the county? 153 has now become 146. If they could get another couple of lbs drop for getting run over in another graded race he might be on a dangerous mark for a 33/1 shot.
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FFS!!!! Only noticed now that Elixir De Nutz is not entered for the County Hurlde!
All my Antepost bets been settled as losers :mad:
Actually, looking further he has no entries at all for Cheltenham!

Has the horse had a problem does anyone know?
 
I’m beggining to question AP punting.

Don’t get me wrong, I stand in very healthy positions in some races, but have had my pants down in others. I’ll see what my P/L is at the end of the festival regarding it. For my nice 25/1s about Notebook and A Plus Tard, there is a Glenloe, Gypsy Island etc to go with them.

Glenloe particularly has fucked a few multiples. That’s the risk!!

I’m however quietly confident of finding winners on the day anyhow. Very much looking forward to it.
 
Double J said:
I’m beggining to question AP punting.

Don’t get me wrong, I stand in very healthy positions in some races, but have had my pants down in others. I’ll see what my P/L is at the end of the festival regarding it. For my nice 25/1s about Notebook and A Plus Tard, there is a Glenloe, Gypsy Island etc to go with them.

Glenloe particularly has fucked a few multiples. That’s the risk!!

I’m however quietly confident of finding winners on the day anyhow. Very much looking forward to it.
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I think it's more or less dead. They bet these races to the 100% the morning of the race. People scratching around now trying to find bets with horses entered in 5 races. Why not just wait until the decs when you know all the variables.
 
I had 4 losing years in a row on my antepost books for Cheltenham. 2015 - 2018. And like you, at that point was really questioning the sanity of it.

To a degree, I can't help myself, but I swore to myself heading into last year's 2019 festival, that if it was the same old story again, I really needed to reel it in for 2020.

But then all you need is one good year to reinvigorate your love for the antepost game. As luck would have it last year I had Espoir D'allen 36/1, Topofthegame 16/1, Al Boum photo 20/1 and Early Doors 16/1 (Thanks Slim).

None in the same multiple, but decent ew singles on all 4 which left me +€3k on my antepost book. And in turn it made my festival. Landing Espoir on Day 1 and TOTG early on day 2 freed me up to have a run at the rest of the festival.
 
I tend not to take AP betting too seriously in general but sometimes I do feel utterly compelled to pile in Richard Baerlein-style (but usually resist). I've probably got fewer AP bets so far this season than in many years.

Probably 90% of my AP bets are just about nicking a bit of value and in recent years the NRNB concession has tempted to bet a bit more often than normal but every now and again I get that twitch. I'm long enough in the tooth to know what can go wrong.

I have a very big bet on Paisley Park this season at 5/6 which I genuinely believe is as good as past the post but the ones I like the look of are Imperial Aura (Close Bros 25/1) and Mick Pastor (Triumph) which I'm on several times to small stakes at 20/1 down to 12/1.
 
Mick Pastor is very interesting for the Triumph. It's a big deal that they are turning down the Fred Winter with him.
 
Palmers Hill out tomorrow in Kemptons 12:40. See how he gets on.

He holds two entries in the Coral Cup and Martin Pipe and looks like one of Jonjo O Neill's best hopes of the meeting.
 
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When did the Mick Pastor train leave the station? Must admit he's slipped my radar since be was thumped by 40L at Cheltenham by Allmamkind when went off 5/2 fav in November.

Didn't pay much need to his Ludlow win as it was a much lower level race.

His current price and lack of an entry in the Fred Winter obviously speak for themselves. Was it before or after Ludlow that you started to back him, DO?
 
Double Handful said:
His current price and lack of an entry in the Fred Winter obviously speak for themselves. Was it before or after Ludlow that you started to back him, DO?
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It was something I read somewhere, something along the lines of his French collateral form making him out to be potentially a 150-160 juvenile. At the time I was just interested in taking a bit of value at 20s. I think Paul Kealy tipped him a few weeks back too, or maybe I read PK first, can't really remember.
 
Double Handful said:
When did the Mick Pastor train leave the station? Must admit he's slipped my radar since be was thumped by 40L at Cheltenham by Allmamkind when went off 5/2 fav in November.

Didn't pay much need to his Ludlow win as it was a much lower level race.

His current price and lack of an entry in the Fred Winter obviously speak for themselves. Was it before or after Ludlow that you started to back him, DO?
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He pulled like a train at Ludlow and absolutely **** up. Could be a proper horse if he learns to settle. They sent him off near 2s on the machine at Ludlow.
 
Double Handful said:
But then all you need is one good year to reinvigorate your love for the antepost game. As luck would have it last year I had Espoir D'allen 36/1, Topofthegame 16/1, Al Boum photo 20/1 and Early Doors 16/1 (Thanks Slim).
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Exactly, a good year makes up for two or three near misses. Last year I had Hardline 25s, Apples Jade 9s Ballyward 33s, Santini 10s Real Steel 20s, Monalee 16s.

Getting them there is half the battle, but it's no use if none of them win.
 
Bookmakers impressed with Palmers Hill. Either that or they have layed a few bets. Shortening for both the Coral Cup and Martin Pipe.
 
Yeah I think he will be a big hope for the stable nearer the time.

He won't be in my main each way patent which is my serious bet for the meeting but I am satisfied he needs to be in my each way smaller stakes goliath fun bet.
 
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Kildisart given a very sympathetic ride today I thought. 33/1 for the Ultima taken


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