Cheltenham Handicap Watch

Other than being limited to horses qualifying of course. He’d be giving lumps of weight away to pretty much everything else though. Not so much in the Coral Cup but he’d still probably be top weight
 
Apologies Marb, was using my phone for earlier post and glanced at the RP quickly and used their RPR's instead of OR by mistake.
You're correct his OR is 150 and that would almost certainly be top weight in the Pertemps - last year 148 was top weight.

The winner Sire Du Berlais carried 11-9 off an OR of 145 (His Irish OR pre-race was 142 - so he got 3lbs Irish Tax).
Either way he had approx 10lbs in hand to win off a big weight - Ronald is a lot more exposed over hurdles.
And at 14/1 NRNB best price, I'm just not sure he has enough in hand to represent value at the prices.
 
Aye thats fair enough, Double. He is not even quoted for the Coral Cup atm.

As I say. If people don't really think the horse is all that, then top weight would put you off.

I refer to my earlier post though. The higher weighted horses have won recent renewals of the pertemps.

I am not put off by a high mark or big weight.

Ronald Pump has improved out of all recognition the past year.

He gave Treacyenniscorthy two stone only beaten a length and that form is rock solid.

He will be better off, (precisely how much I am not sure) with that horse in the Pertemps.

My main concern is will he definately run.

If he does I reckon he will run a huge race.
 
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Speaking of Sire Du Berlais - everything he's done since last year’s Pertemps has been about getting his mark back down and qualifying again.

His Irish OR is currently 149, I think. The day he qualified in Warwick recently he ran off OR 152, finishing 6.5L 4th to Silver Sheen who was put up only 3lbs.

Stoney Mountain who finished 5th, 2L behind SDB, was dropped 1 lb. So, he'll be 152 Max I think - possibly 151.
 
Marb said:
I refer to my earlier post though. The higher weighted horses have won recent renewals of the pertemps.
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Carrying the weight is not the problem. It's how much (or how little) he has in hand relative to others in the field.
And more often than not, there's quite a few with a lot in hand. Sire Du Berlais was a classic example LY.
 
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His excellent hurdles form is what tells me he has a lot in hand over the likely field.

Sire Du Berlais had the form. A completely different profile of form, but he was fourth in the Martin Pipe the year before. So as with Ronald Pump he had every right (and chance) to win the race.

Ronald Pump is more exposed...I just don't think he has finished improving though.
 
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Problem is Martin if you really think he'll have the necessary in hand off that sort of rating then he wouldn't be running in this as bar the odds on jolly, the highest rated British runner in the stayers is currently on 156 - and Ronald has an entry :ninja:
 
It seems as if you are applying that he needs to run to a mark of 160+ to win the Pertemps which I don't think he does, Lee.

I'd hazard guess the winner of the Stayers will run to somewhere in between 165 to 175, or be rated in that bracket after the Stayers.

I think he can run to a mark in the high 150's and that will see him go close in the pertemps.

The same type of running to a mark in the high 150's would probably only see him 6th or 7th in the Stayers.

All I can really say for sure is, if I am owned him I'd definately run in the pertemps.

We'll find out soon enough.
 
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I'd say you need to put in a performance at least 5 or 6lb better than your OR to win any handicap at the festival Martin and if he does get c. 155 - no guarantee of that of course - then yes, that would mean running to about 160.

And unless Benie turns up that could easily see him place in an (aside from the fav) open looking Stayers. Emitom was 147 before the weekend and second fav Summerville Boy is on 156 right now.
 
Yeah fair enough.

I do stress that the actual running of the Stayers Hurdle will see the eventual winner rated between 165 and 175

E.G Emitom was rated 147. He'll probably go up to 155+ for Saturdays win.

However, for him to go close in the Stayers he'd need to be a 165+ horse.

I reckon Ronald Pump needs to run to somewhere between 155 and 159 to win the Pertemps.

If he is offically 150 now then that would support my assertion.

There's a subtle difference between a horse running to the high 150s in winning a pertemps and/or running to 165 to finish third or fourth in a Stayers Hurdle.

You never know, the English handicapper might do him a big favour yet and not raise him too much up from 150.

We will see.
 
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Kilbricken Storm will be running off 140 in the Pertemps.

Think the Tizzards have played a blinder here.
 
Double J said:
Kilbricken Storm will be running off 140 in the Pertemps.

Think the Tizzards have played a blinder here.
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Phenomenal job!! If you've any trust that they know what they're doing then the bit of 33/1still out there is some price!

If this horse was trained by Elliott or WPM or was wearing the green and gold , he'd be Fav for this now.
 
Initial entry totals

Ultima 91
Novice H’cap 72
Coral Cup 148
Fred Winter 61
Pertemps 57
Plate 96
Kim Muir 94
County Hurdle 99
Grand Annual 53
Martin Pipe 156
 
Do you think he should run?

What would be your terms and conditions.
 
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Little stat for you Marb

For the last four years, the Pertemps Final winner has come from the two qualifiers in Ireland. Leopardstown qualifiers over Christmas plus their current Irish marks

Ronald Pump 150
The Storyteller 142
Treacysenniscorthy 138
High Sparrow 130
Tout Est Permis 129
Stacks Mountain 126
 
Diamond Geezer said:
Entries for this year's handicaps

https://files.constantcontact.com/205db977201/13c1066c-88d0-4ccf-ab96-54ef2a382e38.pdf
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Thanks for this Roger. Wondering might you know how/where we could get a list of who is dalready qualified from the 57 entires?

There is still 1 Qualifier left at Chepstow this weekend. One I've had in mind for a long time for the festival is Tedham, but he's not yet qualified.
He's entered at Chelstow for the qualifier on Sat - but now I've noticed he's not on the list of 57 entries for the final at Cheltenham. :confused:

Also, there seems to be horses on the list of 57 entered for the final that are not already qualified and also not entered for the last qualifier.
One such that jumps out to me on the list is Scoir Mear - I don't think he is qualified.

Would love to get a better handle on this if you can shed any light on the above?
 
Double Handful said:
Thanks for this Roger. Wondering might you know how/where we could get a list of who is dalready qualified
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Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle Series 2019/20

Final: Cheltenham Thursday, 12 March 2020 £100,000


26/10/2019 Cheltenham
1 * * * Tobefair Tom Bellamy Debra Hamer (9) 11-12 149 (153)
2 * ½ * Sunset Showdown Aidan Coleman Rebecca Curtis (6) 132
3 [8½] * Sykes Matt Griffiths Nicky Martin (10) 11-10 147
4 [11½] Captain Tommy Gavin Sheehan Harry Whittington (5) 10-12 135
5 [12½] Potters Legend Jack Quinlan Lucy Wadham (9) 10-11 134
6 [18½] Burrows Park Charlie Deutsch Venetia Williams (7) 10-10 133


07/11/2019 Newbury
1 * * Diablo De Rouhet Nico de Boinville Nicky Henderson (6) 11-6 136 (144)
2 [4] Daklondike Tom Scudamore David Pipe (7) 11-9 139
3 [5¼] Dingo Dollar Tom Cannon Alan King (7) 11-11 141
4 [6¾] Geordie B Aidan Coleman Venetia Williams (6) 11-10 140
5 [13¾] Alrightjack Page Fuller3 Jamie Snowden (5) 10-10 129
6 [14½] Canyon City Bryony Frost Neil King (6) 11-12 142


09/11/2019 Aintree
1 * * * Skandiburg Aidan Coleman Olly Murphy (5) 11-0 128 (139)
2* 1¾ Diomede Des Mottes Harry Skelton Dan Skelton (6) 11-3 t 131
3 [18¾] Rosy World Tom O'Brien Suzy Smith (6) 10-4 118
4 [32¾] Bialco Blair Campbell3 Lucinda Russell (8) 10-11 t 128
5 [59¾] Jacks Last Hope Brian Hughes Chris Grant (10) 11-8 v 136
6 [113¾] King Golan Alison Clarke7 Kenny Johnson (8) 10-0 115


07/12/2019 Sandown Park
1* * * Go Whatever Harry Cobden Chris Gordon (5) 10-6 119 (125)
2* 2¾ Dream Berry Barry Geraghty Jonjo O'Neill (8) 11-9 t 136
3 [15¾] Fortunate George Henry Platt10 Emma Lavelle (9) 10-0 123
4 [16¾] Silva Eclipse Sam Coltherd3 Sue Smith (6) 10-9 125
5 [20½] Lord Of The Island Connor Brace3 Fergal O'Brien (11) 11-6 136
6 [22] Crystal Lad Jamie Moore Gary Moore (7) 10-1 114


26/12/2019 Wincanton
1* * * Third Wind Tom O'Brien Hughie Morrison (5) 11-3 137 (142)
2* 1¼ Jatiluwih (FR) Mr David Maxwell3 Philip Hobbs (5) 11-9 146
3* ¾ [2] Storm Arising (IRE) Bryan Carver7 Paul Nicholls (5) 10-3 130
4* 8 [10] Demon Fou (FR) Rex Dingle3 Jeremy Scott (6) 9-11 120
5* 5 [15] Myplaceatmidnight Bryony Frost Neil King (7) 11-0 134
6* [16¼] Collooney (IRE) Richie McLernon Olly Murphy (5) 10-7 w1 t 127


28/12/2019 Leoapardstown
1 * * * Treacysenniscorthy (IRE) Kevin Brouder 3 Robert Widger (7) 09-9 119 (138)
2 1 * * Ronald Pump Keith Donoghue Matthew J Smith (6) 11-10 ht 145 (150)
3 2½ [3½] Stacks Mountain Simon Torrens 7 Henry De Bromhead (6) 09-9 p 123
4 ½ [4] Tout Est Permis (FR) Sean Flanagan Noel Meade (6) 10-6 127
5 ½ [4½] High Sparrow (IRE) Oakley Brown 7 Joseph Patrick O'Brien (6) 10-1 b 129
6 1½ [6] The Storyteller (IRE) Davy Russell Gordon Elliott (8) 11-7 142


11/01/2020 Warwick
1* * * Silver Sheen Robbie Power Mrs John Harrington (6) 10-4 130 (133)
2* nk * Doc Penfro Ben Jones5 Emma Lavelle (8) 9-12 129
3* [2¾] One For The Team Sam Twiston-Davies Nick Williams (6) 128
4* [6½] Sire Du Berlais (FR) Aidan Coleman Gordon Elliott (8) 11-12 tp (149)
5* [8½] Stoney Mountain (IRE) Paddy Brennan Henry Daly (7) 11-3 143
6* [9] Igor Mr Sam Waley-Cohen3 Nicky Henderson (7) 10-3 132


24/01/2020 Punchestown
1* * * * Phoenix Way (IRE) Barry Geraghty Harry Fry (7) 11-4 133 (140)
2* hd * Kansas City Chief (IRE) Robert Dunne Neil Mulholland (11) 10-9 124
3* 2¾ [3] Captain Tommy (IRE) Gavin Sheehan Harry Whittington (6) 10-12 b 127
4* 4¼ [7¼] Dorking Boy Stan Sheppard Tom Lacey (6) 10-13 ht 128
5* nk [7½] Anytime Will Do (IRE) Harry Skelton Dan Skelton (7) 11-4 133
6* 1¾ [9¼] Shanwalla (IRE) Jack G Gilligan 7 Paul John Gilligan (6) 10-10 132


15/02/2020 Haydock
1 * * * * Welsh Saint (FR) Jeremiah McGrath Nicky Henderson (6) 10-7 134 (138)
2* 1¼ * * Silva Eclipse Sean Quinlan Sue Smith (7) 10-1 128 2 128
3* 13 [14¼] Kilbricken Storm (IRE) Robbie Power Colin Tizzard (9) 11-1 t 142
4* 1¾ [16] Sykes (IRE) Matt Griffiths Nicky Martin (11) 11-2 143 4 143
5* ½ [16½] Unowhatimeanharry Jonathan Burke Harry Fry 12 11-12 tp 153 (150)
6* nk [16¾] Guitar Pete (IRE) Ryan Day Nicky Richards (10) 10-13 140


19/02/2020 Punchestown
1* * * * * Mary Frances (IRE) Cathal Landers 5 Martin Hassett (8) 9-11 126 (???)
2* 4¾ * Blast Of Koeman (IRE) Phillip Enright Robert Tyner (9) 10-3 tb 127
3* 1½ [6¼] A Great View (IRE) Mark Walsh Denis W Cullen (9) 10-11 p 135
4* nk [6½] Relegate (IRE) Brian Hayes C A Murphy (7) 10-6 130
5* 1½ [8] Royal Thief (IRE) Rachael Blackmore Henry De Bromhead (6) 10-5 p1 129
6* 24 [32] High Sparrow (IRE) Conor McNamara 5 Joseph Patrick O'Brien (7) 10-1 b 130

All Official Ratings at time of race...Revised mark of Protaganist's underlined.
 
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