Cheltenham Handicap Watch

I've long said JP could win all 10 handicaps this year but he really is starting to look like he has an unbelievable handicap hurdle squad.

Coral Cup - Dame De Compagnie
Pertemps - Sire Du Berlais/Phoenix Way
Boodles Juvenile - Aramax
County - Ciel De Neige/Janidil (Is he injured?)
Martin Pipe - Entoucas/Front Row/Ilikethewayurthinkin
 
From Open morning last week,

“Janidil is in all the handicaps and we will see what mark he gets, but I am thinking does he have a good profile for the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle? He has lots of runs and his rating of 145 is good enough to be there. I like the fact we have run all season. Perhaps connections (J P McManus) have something better for the Albert Bartlett, but I would like to look at it. Mark Walsh loves him.

G&G have nothing else in the AB Willie but good luck convincing the man in the hat to go there.

The fact that he's been entered at DRF in a G1 and Betfair hurdle and not taken up either of those engagements suggests he has a mark worth waiting for.
 
Double Handful said:
Exactly!!! And this is why I started this whole line of questioning.

I've backed Relegate at 50/1 antepost and unfortunately it's extremely unlikely he'll get a run off OR 130. Can't see him getting raised any for yesterday's 4th and because he was off for a year, highly unlikely he'll get enough 'cheating Irish tax' from the UK handicapper to get him to 136/137 - which is what you'd need in an average/normal year to get in.

I'm massively clutching at straws that with the low entry number, some entries not even qualified, and maybe a small bit of tax from the UK handicapper, that he might sneak in at the very bottom.

We live in hope!
Click to expand...

Irish Handicapper put Relegate up 2 lbs for his 4th place in last weeks qualifier.
Now OR 132 in Ireland - only needs 4/5 lbs 'Irish cheating B*stards tax' from UK handicapper on Wed now to get a run in the Pertemps.
Not impossible :whistle:
 
redundant pal said:
From Open morning last week,

“Janidil is in all the handicaps and we will see what mark he gets, but I am thinking does he have a good profile for the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle? He has lots of runs and his rating of 145 is good enough to be there. I like the fact we have run all season. Perhaps connections (J P McManus) have something better for the Albert Bartlett, but I would like to look at it. Mark Walsh loves him.

G&G have nothing else in the AB Willie but good luck convincing the man in the hat to go there.

The fact that he's been entered at DRF in a G1 and Betfair hurdle and not taken up either of those engagements suggests he has a mark worth waiting for.
Click to expand...

Great post. Thank you.
 
Slim said:
Not a handicap but in case anyone has missed this:

https://twitter.com/PaulJonesRacing/status/1230970876453060608?s=19

I've taken 50/1 for the Marsh Chase. Irish Stamp tells me it's rated 150 in France where it is 4/8 over fences. It wouldn't need to be too impressive on Tuesday to end up going off 6s in the worst Marsh Chase of all time
Click to expand...

Piggybacking this at 33s NRNB with some sickness insurance :lol:

It might look a weakish race going into it but I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a serious performance from something on the day.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Piggybacking this at 33s NRNB with some sickness insurance :lol:

It might look a weakish race going into it but I wouldn't be surprised if we saw a serious performance from something on the day.
Click to expand...

3/10 tommorw in the 3.45 Catterick.

It does look a very soft race at the moment. This horse might not be the answer but at 33/1 it is still a really good bet. I'll be surprised if the 33s isn't all gone but the time the race goes off tomorrow.
 
Last edited:
redundant pal said:
From Open morning last week,

“Janidil is in all the handicaps and we will see what mark he gets, but I am thinking does he have a good profile for the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle? He has lots of runs and his rating of 145 is good enough to be there. I like the fact we have run all season. Perhaps connections (J P McManus) have something better for the Albert Bartlett, but I would like to look at it. Mark Walsh loves him.

G&G have nothing else in the AB Willie but good luck convincing the man in the hat to go there.

The fact that he's been entered at DRF in a G1 and Betfair hurdle and not taken up either of those engagements suggests he has a mark worth waiting for.
Click to expand...
It's an interesting conundrum. He's 16/1 in the any race market but individual race best prices and NRNB are:
Bartlett 40/1 (33/1)
Coral 20/1 (14/1)
County 25/1 (12/1)
Pipe 16/1 (12/1)
 
archie said:
It's an interesting conundrum. He's 16/1 in the any race market but individual race best prices and NRNB are:
Bartlett 40/1 (33/1)
Coral 20/1 (14/1)
County 25/1 (12/1)
Pipe 16/1 (12/1)
Click to expand...

I think he will run in the Coral Cup but I think the point you are making is 16/1 any race is better. I agree with that. I think he is highly unlikely to go to the Albert Bartlett.
 
That's about the size of it. Trying to second guess either Willie or JP is not recommended. Trying to second guess them both is just plain foolish.

I've used the same logic already with Front View but I am tempted to a small ew double - Janidil (Coral) & Front View (Pipe).
 
archie said:
That's about the size of it. Trying to second guess either Willie or JP is not recommended. Trying to second guess them both is just plain foolish.

I've used the same logic already with Front View but I am tempted to a small ew double - Janidil (Coral) & Front View (Pipe).
Click to expand...

Entoucas and Ilikethewayurthinkin are two other MP horses. They will surely have to plunder the Imperial Cup with Front View being most likely to my mind.
 
Slim said:
I've long said JP could win all 10 handicaps this year but he really is starting to look like he has an unbelievable handicap hurdle squad.

Coral Cup - Dame De Compagnie
Pertemps - Sire Du Berlais/Phoenix Way
Boodles Juvenile - Aramax
County - Ciel De Neige/Janidil (Is he injured?)
Martin Pipe - Entoucas/Front Row/Ilikethewayurthinkin
Click to expand...

Coral Cup - Dame De Compagnie/Janidil
Pertemps - Sire Du Berlais/Phoenix Way
Boodles Juvenile - Aramax
County - Ciel De Neige
Martin Pipe - Entoucas/Front Row/Ilikethewayurthinkin
 
Slim said:
Coral Cup - Dame De Compagnie/Janidil
Pertemps - Sire Du Berlais/Phoenix Way
Boodles Juvenile - Aramax
County - Ciel De Neige
Martin Pipe - Entoucas/Front Row/Ilikethewayurthinkin
Click to expand...

Birchdale....Ran in wrong race last year...Coral cup
 
Slim said:
I've taken 50/1 for the Marsh Chase. Irish Stamp tells me it's rated 150 in France where it is 4/8 over fences. It wouldn't need to be too impressive on Tuesday to end up going off 6s in the worst Marsh Chase of all time
Click to expand...

Saint Sonnet is rated 68.0 [Kg] in France, which equates to 150 (rounded up) in pounds but can Irish Stamp tell us how closely the handicapping corresponds to the UK system? After all, we know that a horse rated 130 in Ireland will probably be rated 136 in the UK due to the [mythical] "ICB tax".
 
Desert Orchid said:
Saint Sonnet is rated 68.0 [Kg] in France, which equates to 150 (rounded up) in pounds but can Irish Stamp tell us how closely the handicapping corresponds to the UK system? After all, we know that a horse rated 130 in Ireland will probably be rated 136 in the UK due to the [mythical] "ICB tax".
Click to expand...

He said to me 150.
 
With regards Saint Sonnet, Nicholls has talked up the Marsh Novice Chase, but he's got a hurdles mark that they could exploit in a handicap, and he has a second entry in the Coral Cup which seems to have gone unnoticed (no other entries).

Also Nicholls has previous for this with Aux Ptits Soins who went to Coral Cup stepping up in trip out of France on a very lenient mark where improvement was expected.

Saint Sonnet is presumably thought as being a lot better than a 145 rated horse and similarly is expected to be better for a step up in trip. I've taken 33/1 nrnb for the Coral Cup just in case they switch targets and Nicholls is putting us away like he did with Aux Ptits Soins.

Let's face it, winning an egg and spoon race at Catterick is hardly a prep for a Marsh Novices Chase, but it does give him a racecourse gallop, and leaves his hurdles mark untouched. As I said nrnb for the coral Cup feels worthwhile having onside just in case.
 
Maruco said:
With regards Saint Sonnet, Nicholls has talked up the Marsh Novice Chase, but he's got a hurdles mark that they could exploit in a handicap, and he has a second entry in the Coral Cup which seems to have gone unnoticed (no other entries).

Also Nicholls has previous for this with Aux Ptits Soins who went to Coral Cup stepping up in trip out of France on a very lenient mark where improvement was expected.

Saint Sonnet is presumably thought as being a lot better than a 145 rated horse and similarly is expected to be better for a step up in trip. I've taken 33/1 nrnb for the Coral Cup just in case they switch targets and Nicholls is putting us away like he did with Aux Ptits Soins.

Let's face it, winning an egg and spoon race at Catterick is hardly a prep for a Marsh Novices Chase, but it does give him a racecourse gallop, and leaves his hurdles mark untouched. As I said nrnb for the coral Cup feels worthwhile having onside just in case.
Click to expand...

I considered this but by running him over fences and assuming he wins, wouldn't he ruin his novice status for next year for nothing if he intends to run him over hurdles in two weeks ?

Or will he lose his novice status regardless because of his Lignieres win back in August ?
 
Last edited:
Back
Top