Cheltenham Handicap Watch

archie said:
It's an interesting conundrum. He's 16/1 in the any race market but individual race best prices and NRNB are:
Bartlett 40/1 (33/1)
Coral 20/1 (14/1)
County 25/1 (12/1)
Pipe 16/1 (12/1)
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I've been holding off, but agree that's the way to play Janidil. Where is he 16/1 any race Archie?
 
wilsonl said:
I considered this but by running him over fences and assuming he wins, wouldn't he ruin his novice status for next year for nothing if he intends to run him over hurdles in two weeks ?

Or will he lose his novice status regardless because of his Lignieres win back in August ?
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He'll lose his novice status because of his win in France Lee. He has very little chasing experience for a championship novice event, and he's not long in the country for intensive schooling. On the other hand he has plenty of hurdling experience that stands up to scrutiny, and a mark that looks exploitable particularly if Nicholls thinks he wants further.

Also if it's not in their minds why the entry. Let's face it, there's a risk the handicapper will reasess his hurdles mark if he does something of note over fences, so it could be better to use his mark sooner rather than later. In my opinion there's nothing not to like about a speculative nrnb with the evidence and the trainer in question.
 
Euronymous said:
When are the actual weights published.
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It's press day tomorrow so there's a lot of faffing about, there's the entries for the Cross Country, Bumper, Mares Nov and the Foxhunters, and I think it's the latest forfeit stage for the Grand National and then of course the weights for the handicaps are published. From my notes these were published at 12.20pm last year.
 
Maruco said:
With regards Saint Sonnet, Nicholls has talked up the Marsh Novice Chase, but he's got a hurdles mark that they could exploit in a handicap, and he has a second entry in the Coral Cup which seems to have gone unnoticed (no other entries).

Also Nicholls has previous for this with Aux Ptits Soins who went to Coral Cup stepping up in trip out of France on a very lenient mark where improvement was expected.

Saint Sonnet is presumably thought as being a lot better than a 145 rated horse and similarly is expected to be better for a step up in trip. I've taken 33/1 nrnb for the Coral Cup just in case they switch targets and Nicholls is putting us away like he did with Aux Ptits Soins.

Let's face it, winning an egg and spoon race at Catterick is hardly a prep for a Marsh Novices Chase, but it does give him a racecourse gallop, and leaves his hurdles mark untouched. As I said nrnb for the coral Cup feels worthwhile having onside just in case.
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I like this angle. Thanks for pointing it out.
 
archie said:
I like this angle. Thanks for pointing it out.
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It's an interesting angle and the NRNB concession means there's probably no harm in backing it for the Coral Cup.

The flip side, though, is that to win the Coral Cup off 145 he'd probably need to be a 155+ horse, and for me a 155 hurdler should go on to be a 165 chaser. If he happened to be that good, is there anything in the Marsh that could touch him?
 
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Desert Orchid said:
It's an interesting angle and the NRNB concession means there's probably no harm in backing it for the Coral Cup.

The flip side, though, is that to win the Coral Cup off 145 he'd probably need to be a 155+ horse, and for me a 155 hurdler should go on to be a 165 chaser. If he happened to be that good, is there anything in the Marsh that could touch him?
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Inexperience over fences Maurice. One run over fences in the french provinces, and an egg and spoon race at Catterick wouldn't have him ready for what looks a very good Marsh. On the other hand he looks ripe over hurdles with requisite experience for the Coral Cup. You wouldn't put it past Nicholls for him to be the 155+ hurdler he'd need to be that's for sure.
 
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Nicholls has already said he was going for the Marsh hence why I put him up for it. I honestly think punters try too hard to be clever sometimes. The Coral Cup entry will have been if he couldn't get a run into him over fences before the festival.
 
Not sure why that's being too clever. It's nrnb at 33/1! I have him at the same price for The Marsh.

Also it won't have just been if he couldn't get a run in over fences. It's also if he has concerns post race that hasn't jumped well, or he doesn't appear to have sufficient experience and may not deal with a deep looking Marsh because of it.

On his jumping today I'd say the chance of him going to the Coral Cup increased. Also Nicholls isn't averse to pulling the kind of trick as already explained, as he did with Aux Ptits Soins.

He will probably go to the Marsh, but why wouldn't you cover the Coral Cup as well? How's it being too clever to do so?
 
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The trainer has laid out the plan. Why would I waste ammo tying up money to be refunded. The Coral Cup is an absolute minefield. I fancy him for the Marsh because it is a really bad race. In the Coral Cup he could be a 155 horse and lose a neck.
 
and most importantly he is still 33/1 across the board for the Coral Cup so what was the angle backing him before he ran over fences today? There was pretty much no scenario where the price would shorten after today's race. On the flipside there was a big angle on the Marsh Novice price shortening today. Hence I am saying you are trying to be too clever.
 
Slim said:
The trainer has laid out the plan. Why would I waste ammo tying up money to be refunded. The Coral Cup is an absolute minefield. I fancy him for the Marsh because it is a really bad race. In the Coral Cup he could be a 155 horse and lose a neck.
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Because you could be doing precisely that yourself if he goes the other way Slim. The Marsh will also have higher rated horses than the Coral Cup. He could be a 165 horse in the Marsh and lose a neck!

It's all about opinions of course, we all have our own way of doing things. You punt professionally and I make it pay. So neither is wrong, so saying it's trying to be too clever isn't correct. It's just not for you and your style.

For me tying up £50 to find out is hardly a big deal in the grand scheme of things. Spotting the horse at 33/1 that's live player in the markets, and him then going the other way at the same price makes him worth a no risk antepost bet and isn't trying to be too clever at all.
 
Slim said:
and most importantly he is still 33/1 across the board for the Coral Cup so what was the angle backing him before he ran over fences today? There was pretty much no scenario where the price would shorten after today's race. On the flipside there was a big angle on the Marsh Novice price shortening today. Hence I am saying you are trying to be too clever.
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Again not true. He loses, he falls, he wins all out, all would see a different market reaction in the Marsh.
 
Maruco said:
Because you could be doing precisely that yourself if he goes the other way Slim. The Marsh will also have higher rated horses than the Coral Cup. He could be a 165 horse in the Marsh and lose a neck!

It's all about opinions of course, we all have our own way of doing things. You punt professionally and I make it pay. So neither is wrong, so saying it's trying to be too clever isn't correct. It's just not for you and your style.

For me tying up £50 to find out is hardly a big deal in the grand scheme of things. Spotting the horse at 33/1 that's live player in the markets, and him then going the other way at the same price makes him worth a no risk antepost bet and isn't trying to be too clever at all.
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Forget who bets a £5 or £500 it has nothing to do with you being wrong :lol:

If he had won 20l he could have ended up 12s or 14s for the Marsh. He did what he did so there is still 33s ante post and if he is a runner that is a fair price.

In terms of the Coral Cup there was no advantage betting him today for the race. If he is declared would he be much shorter than 33/1 in a race like that given the Betfair Hurdle winner was 110 on Betfair at the off?
 
Maruco said:
Again not true. He loses, he falls, he wins all out, all would see a different market reaction in the Marsh.
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How is that wrong? Read what I've said. There was an angle for the price shortening for the Marsh and there was no scenario where his Coral Cup price would have shortened bar it being announced as his target.
 
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You'd want every bit of 33-1 on Saint Sonnet after today. Will be odds on to fall in a festival chase from what I saw today.
 
trefflich said:
You'd want every bit of 33-1 on Saint Sonnet after today. Will be odds on to fall in a festival chase from what I saw today.
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Very sketchy at a few. It was his jumping that disappointed me the most.
 
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He was low at a good few of them in true French fashion...he'll be going two strides quicker in Chelters and won't end well but look stranger things have happened!!
 
trefflich said:
He was low at a good few of them in true French fashion...he'll be going two strides quicker in Chelters and won't end well but look stranger things have happened!!
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Harry Cobden did bemoan that they crawled and said he would have been more impressive had he went his own pace. He took the blame for 3 out. It's most certainly not a bet I'm excited about but I won't put it in the bin because the Marsh is a bag of shite.
 
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Post me up Ronald Pumps mark for the Pertemps when you know it. Cheers DG.

Curiousity killed the cat. :)
 
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