Cheltenham Handicap Watch

Slim said:
Harry Cobden did bemoan that they crawled and said he would have been more impressive had he went his own pace. He took the blame for 3 out. It's most certainly not a bet I'm excited about but I won't put it in the bin because the Marsh is a bag of shite.
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Yes, the brother was on the phone to relay that to me this morning.

It reminded me of something I wanted to put on the thread yesterday.

(Cue another one of my madcap theories.)

I have long been of the opinion that, in 'penalty kick' races especially but also in general, sometimes horses are sent out for experimental/educational runs. By that I mean that I think sometimes they're sent out to lead on the wrong leg or deliberately ridden to fiddle fences to teach them to cope or even just to see if they can cope.

I used to do this when I played football. If we had built up a lead we knew was never going to be pegged back I would start playing with my 'wrong' foot. It was something I practised a lot in the street anyway but I liked seeing how I got on in a match. Sometimes it made me look really poor but I didn't mind so long as I was learning.

The brother then reminded me that his school team was once told by the guy who ran it ('coach' would be stretching credulity) to start playing with the 'wrong' foot in the second half as they were 6-0 up and he didn't want his young opponents crushed by a much heavier defeat.

I also recall Gordon Strachan explaining why he told his [Celtic] team to take the foot off the gas in the second half of a match because the game was won, the league was won and he didn't see any dignity in humiliating a team that were trying their heart out.

I imagine it's better for a horse to learn to cope with difficulties deliberately put in its way rather than just cruising through a race and winning hard held.

Just a thought.
 
We knew he would have top weight.

I am not that surprised. It would be some weight carrying performance but I think he can do it. He has ran big races before with 11:12 on his back. I think he is one of the class horses in the race. That will get him through it.

I just hope connections aren't put off.
The proof will be in the pudding.
 
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Double Handful said:
Irish Handicapper put Relegate up 2 lbs for his 4th place in last weeks qualifier.
Now OR 132 in Ireland - only needs 4/5 lbs 'Irish cheating B*stards tax' from UK handicapper on Wed now to get a run in the Pertemps.
Not impossible :whistle:
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Relegate got 137 for the Pertemps!!! Absolutely made up over that.
He's already guaranteed a run at no. 24 on the list today!
And while I only managed to get €18 E/W on - it's still 50/1 about a 12/1 shot now :ninja::cool::)
 
I would suggest if he was up to winning a festival handicap off 156 he shouldn't be running in a handicap at all.

He'd need to be nearer a 166 horse to do that and not many championship horses are higher than that at the moment.

Then again, I backed Un Temps Pour Tout in the Ultima off 155 because I felt he was as good a horse as Native River, so it's possible.
 
Desert Orchid said:
He'd need to be nearer a 166 horse to do that and not many championship horses are higher than that at the moment.
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This is comparing apples and oranges though in terms of an argument.

You have highlighted his potential mark of 166 which you say he will need to run to if winning the pertemps. Then you say there aren't many hurdlers rated 166 in the staying division at the moment.

My point here is that, the only way the above statement could be credible is if you also looked at the possible marks of the winners and placed horses in the 2020 stayers hurdle.

I.E apply your same logic to what you think Paisely Park, Emitom, or other contenders will run to.

There is no point looking at future marks of pertemps contenders, but then comparing them to the marks of the stayers hurdle field before the stayers hurdle is there?

Skewed analysis, imvho.
 
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If Ronald Pump won the Pertemps he would likely go up 6lbs or 7lbs which would put him on a new mark of 162 or 163.

He wouldn't finish in the first six places running to that mark in this years stayers. Paisely Park is already on 169. He'll probably be a mid-to-high 170's horse after the Stayers assuming he places.

A horse like Emitom is only mid 150's now (153), literally rated within 3lbs of Ronald Pump, but is fancied to improve at least a stone in the Stayers (by me).
 
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Obviously it isn't a like for like situation. We're comparing a handicap with a championship race.

The Stayers' Hurdle likely protagonists are the protagonists because they are exposed. We know what most of them will do. If they all run to their existing marks Paisley Park will probably win (I think he's a lot better than his mark) and the Irish horses are the dangers but I'm not sure many of them can run much better than 166. Therefore, if I owned a horse I believed was a 166 I think I would be more tempted to take in the Stayers' Hurdle than the Pertemps. After all, they say never be afraid of one horse.

Your guy could be a 166 horse and find itself beaten by a 140-rated horse who's really a 155 horse (probably trained in Ireland, for that matter).

Alternatively, it could be a 156 horse running off 156, in which case it will get pumped in the Pertemps.

I'm happy not to live by your logic :)
 
My logic is just fine.

The great thing about this game of opinions is we get to find out.

He has the form. He needs to run a few pounds ahead of his mark to win. That is no big deal.

Anyone who thinks connections should throw away their chance of winning the pertemps to finish down the field in the Stayers is obviously just badly guessing.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Yes, the brother was on the phone to relay that to me this morning.

It reminded me of something I wanted to put on the thread yesterday.

(Cue another one of my madcap theories.)

I have long been of the opinion that, in 'penalty kick' races especially but also in general, sometimes horses are sent out for experimental/educational runs. By that I mean that I think sometimes they're sent out to lead on the wrong leg or deliberately ridden to fiddle fences to teach them to cope or even just to see if they can cope.

I used to do this when I played football. If we had built up a lead we knew was never going to be pegged back I would start playing with my 'wrong' foot. It was something I practised a lot in the street anyway but I liked seeing how I got on in a match. Sometimes it made me look really poor but I didn't mind so long as I was learning.

The brother then reminded me that his school team was once told by the guy who ran it ('coach' would be stretching credulity) to start playing with the 'wrong' foot in the second half as they were 6-0 up and he didn't want his young opponents crushed by a much heavier defeat.

I also recall Gordon Strachan explaining why he told his [Celtic] team to take the foot off the gas in the second half of a match because the game was won, the league was won and he didn't see any dignity in humiliating a team that were trying their heart out.

I imagine it's better for a horse to learn to cope with difficulties deliberately put in its way rather than just cruising through a race and winning hard held.

Just a thought.
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I quite like your new role as mad genius of the forum...
 
Desert Orchid said:
Obviously it isn't a like for like situation. We're comparing a handicap with a championship race.

The Stayers' Hurdle likely protagonists are the protagonists because they are exposed. We know what most of them will do. If they all run to their existing marks Paisley Park will probably win (I think he's a lot better than his mark) and the Irish horses are the dangers but I'm not sure many of them can run much better than 166. Therefore, if I owned a horse I believed was a 166 I think I would be more tempted to take in the Stayers' Hurdle than the Pertemps. After all, they say never be afraid of one horse.

Your guy could be a 166 horse and find itself beaten by a 140-rated horse who's really a 155 horse (probably trained in Ireland, for that matter).

Alternatively, it could be a 156 horse running off 156, in which case it will get pumped in the Pertemps.

I'm happy not to live by your logic :)
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Emitom is not exposed. It only takes one special horse, not three, four or five, to beat Paisely Park, remember.
 
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Marb said:
We knew he would have top weight.

I am not that surprised. It would be some weight carrying performance but I think he can do it. He has ran big races before with 11:12 on his back. I think he is one of the class horses in the race. That will get him through it.

I just hope connections aren't put off.
The proof will be in the pudding.
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The class horse in the race is on 152! Sire Du Berlais goes off 7/2f.
 
Marb said:
Sire Du Berlais is a good horse yes.

Maybe he should also run in the stayers hurdle eh.
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JP likes to win races. 152 only 7lbs higher than last year where he had trouble in running and they will be using first time headgear. He is a proper old fashioned plot horse.
 
Good luck with him.

At least you are not proposing to back some thing with no form in the book carrying 10 stone.
 
Marb said:
Emitom is not exposed. It only takes one special horse, not three, four or five, to beat Paisely Park, remember.
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I can accept that Emitom is not exposed. It might be special; it might not. It will need to be really special to get anywhere near Paisley Park. Personally, I think it will do well to be placed if all the Irish good ones turn up. There's very little opposition to Paisley Park among the home contingent.
 
Marb said:
Good luck with him.

At least you are not proposing to back some thing with no form in the book carrying 10 stone.
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I think the days of backing horses in handicaps at the festival with featherweights is gonzo.
 
Slim said:
JP likes to win races. [Sire Du Berlais] 152 only 7lbs higher than last year where he had trouble in running and they will be using first time headgear. He is a proper old fashioned plot horse.
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I wouldn't be at all surprised if the same owner's UNWIMH is the real plot. Down to 150 from a career peak of 167 and erstwhile 5/6f for the Stayers' Hurdle, available 25/1.

Could SDB be a decoy for this one?

(Just playing along with the mad genius role, you understand.)
 
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