Cheltenham Handicap Watch

Using the Pertemps as an example, seeing as that's the race we're mainly discussing.
On average over the past 10 years the winners and placed horses have been significantly closer to the bottom of the weights, than the top of the weights.
Narrow that down to the past 4 years winners only, and it's been an even split. Full table in the attached.

2019 Very close to Top Weight
2018 Very close to Bottom Weight
2017 Very close to Top Weight
2019 Very close to Bottom Weight


I think it's the turn of a bottom weight horse this year :whistle:
 

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Double Handful said:
Using the Pertemps as an example, seeing as that's the race we're mainly discussing.
On average over the past 10 years the winners and placed horses have been significantly closer to the bottom of the weights, than the top of the weights.
Narrow that down to the past 4 years winners only, and it's been an even split. Full table in the attached.

2019 Very close to Top Weight
2018 Very close to Bottom Weight
2017 Very close to Top Weight
2019 Very close to Bottom Weight


I think it's the turn of a bottom weight horse this year :whistle:
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You can't use averages to decipher the makeup of this years race. Was their a previous winner in those races off 152 that looked as well handicapped?
 
Desert Orchid said:
I wouldn't be at all surprised if the same owner's UNWIMH is the real plot. Down to 150 from a career peak of 167 and erstwhile 5/6f for the Stayers' Hurdle, available 25/1.

Could SDB be a decoy for this one?

(Just playing along with the mad genius role, you understand.)
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Not on my radar. I think everything points to SDB being a well executed plan.
 
Slim said:
You can't use averages to decipher the makeup of this years race. Was their a previous winner in those races off 152 that looked as well handicapped?
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I wasn't being overly serious with that post. A bit tongue in cheek relative to my Relegate 50/1 bet :)
Was just looking at the stats and shared them. I'm well aware of most peoples aversion to 'Trends' etc.
 
Joseph and JP have had a nightmare with Early Doors. Binned out of both the Kim Muir and Novice Handicap with no other entries.
 
Slim said:
I think the days of backing horses in handicaps at the festival with featherweights is gonzo.
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However, I don't think it's as simple to say that the days of featherweights winning are gone either.
When you look at the results of the H'caps in recent years, there are lots of horses in all of them winning and getting placed, carrying low weights.
 
If a horse is well ahead of its mark it doesn't matter if that mark is 132, 142 or 152.

I imagine they're very happy with Silver Sheen's rating.
 
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My point is the classier types are far better treated in handicaps these days because the handicaps are so compressed. 10 years ago would you have been really fancying horse off marks 148+?
 
archie said:
If a horse is well ahead of its mark it doesn't matter if that mark is 132, 142 or 152.
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This is pretty much my working mantra for handicaps.

If I can't split a top weight from a bottom weight on ratings and were asked to pick just one I'd go for the top weight as there are more scenarios that would permit it to win because of its class.
 
I'm reminded of one of my favourite plots where I spotted a horse being run on the wrong conditions throughout the year - started on 167 made it to the Ultima on 149 and in my head was nailed on.

Unguided missile 1998 Ultima won at 10/1.

So yes, I would have been backing horses at those weights when justified. I'm not convinced that SDB or RP are that well handicapped.
 
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Slim said:
10 years ago would you have been really fancying horse off marks 148+?
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I've been backing top weights in handicaps going back to the days when I was punting under-age and I'll be 65 in September.

Didn't Titus Oates win the Whitbread under 12-7?

Dessie himself won the Irish National under top weight as well as lots of other handicaps.

Burrough Hill Lad won big races under top weight.

It's been happening for ever.
 
Slim said:
My point is the classier types are far better treated in handicaps these days because the handicaps are so compressed. 10 years ago would you have been really fancying horse off marks 148+?
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Your point initially wasn't lost on me and i do understand and agree with what you're saying, especially regarding the actual winners of the H'caps.
 
simmo said:
I'm reminded of one of my favourite plots where I spotted a horse being run on the wrong conditions throughout the year - started on 167 made it to the Ultima on 149 and in my head was mailed on.

Unguided missile 1998 Ultima won at 10/1.
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I backed it too although I can't say I was following its progress through the season. I had it several pounds clear on my ratings on the day. I can't claim to have stated it was nailed on but I did think it was a brilliant bet.
 
I get a wee bit frustrated when TV people express surprise that a highly weighted horse has managed to win.

In the first place, they're at the top of the weights because they're better horses to start with. If, as mentioned earlier, it's rated 155 but you can make a case out for it being 10lbs well in then it's unlikely to be beaten by something that's only 5lbs well in but much further down the weights.
 
With regards to the Pertemps, there is a trend in the weights that when the top weight is 150+ that a horse in the 130's will win it. If top weight is in the high 140's it's more likely to be something in the top 8 of the weights and probably within 6lbs of the top weight.

This year the likely top weight will be 156 with Ronald Pump a likely runner. At worst it will be the 152 that Sire Du Berlais is on. Sire Du Berlais in my opinion is a class act and will go close, but the trends are against him winning.

If I use all of the recent race trends there are two horses that stand out for win material, and they are Tout Est Permis and Relegate. Tout Est Permis is available at 12-16's and ran in the the right qualifier, and Relegate is available at 10's and the price is currently crashing. Given Colm Murphy's record at the Festival and Relegates mark and previous win in the Champion Bumper I'm not surprised I think they'll both go off at shorter than their current prices and there's still some juice. Relegate in my opinion will be vying for favouritism on the day.

Two that just miss the trends on minimum runs are Silver Sheen and Welsh Saint. Both are unexposed and may well run big races. They only miss out on making four perfect trend horses by having one run too few. Given their respective trainers though I'd be less concerned about that trend and I reckon they're both players.

The other two with obvious claims are Phoenix Way and The Storyteller. I don't like the former. He may be unexposed and capable of much better but he has no experience. The Storyteller on the other hand looks a proper plot job and if anything is going to bust the trends it'll be him. The other one that potential fits that bill is Kilbricken Storm. Who has either turned in to a dog or has been plotted. I've made the case for him previously so won't do so again.

To sum up I have the race down to 7 horses, and my preference in the following order:

Relegate
Sire Du Berlais
Silver Sheen
Tout Est Permis
The Storyteller
Kilbricken Storm
Welsh Saint

That's the exactas and trifectas sorted as well then! :blink:
 
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Maruco said:
To sum up I have the race down to 7 horses, and there preference in the following order:

Relegate
Sire Du Berlais
Silver Sheen
Tout Est Permis
The Storyteller
Kilbricken Storm
Welsh Saint

That the exactas and trifectas sorted as well then! :blink:
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That is basically where I am with the race. If Ronald Pump runs than SDB just wins further. Relegate is a massive danger now.

I'm glad I'll get a run from my 20/1 Tout Est Permis voucher which I placed believing he could sneak in off bottom weight but **** me he has looked a bit soulless this season.
 
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Not sure in SDB, was a terrific ride to get him home from Geraghty last year if I remember correctly.

I’m sticking with Kilbricken Storm. Probably have a savour on a couple of others.
 
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