Cheltenham Handicap Watch

Your Tout Est Permis is a live ticket I'd say. 20/1 is a nice price too. He qualified just the way you'd want him to, and getting in off 10st 6lb is ridiculous.
 
Handicap winners racecard numbers

2019
7/4/3/3/3/12/2/5/17/1

2018
12/20/6/12/13/6/8/21/7/1

2017
1/13/6/6/2/8/14/1/4/12

Stats are just figures for everyone to interpret as they see fit.

Last year was the first Festival after Phil Smith retired as senior handicapper. It remains to be seen whether or not this might have been a significant event.
 
Archie can you confirm that this indicates the top horse has won the Martin Pipe for the last two years.

Edit ...........doesn't look like at as they swapped the Grand Annual and the Martin Pipe round last year
 
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Ah well. I have delibrately not backed him yet in the event he runs in the stayers.

What a weird game this is. 16/1 for the pertemps but he goes for the stayers where he is a 50/1 chance and has no chance of placing.
 
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Marb said:
Ah well. I have delibrately not backed him yet in the event he runs in the stayers.

What a weird game this is. 16/1 for the pertemps but he goes for the stayers where he is a 50/1 chance and has no chance of placing.
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If he has no chance of placing in this stayers then he had less than zero chance of winning off 156 in an ultra competitive handicap.
 
I'm on Relegate at 33s and 25s but I know the trainer would prefer to bring her here for her 3rd run rather than her 2nd, maybe a little rushed. Damaged a pedal bone and had some other niggles. Delighted with 137 - optimum. Will add Kilbrittan to a f/c exacta and add it all to the retirement fund.
 
Two or three graded horses in disguise is the norm for the horses in the top 8 of the handicap. The level of compression and the ground have an impact, but more significantly is the big stables/owners having such strength in depth with their ammunition that they can carefully campaign future graded horses and save them for handicaps.

Trainers are also not averse to taking a year, or even two years, plotting a horse that's just short of winning Grade 1's back down to handicap marks for a Festival winner. Gigi, JP, Elliott, Mullins, Henderson, Nicholls, Skelton are all increasingly at it, and it's the starting point for any handicap betting at the Festival.
 
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Reynolds/De Bromhead Moon Over Germany @ 33/1 in the County.

Rated 134 in Ireland and been given an extra 7lb by the BHA which takes him to 141 and means he’ll get in but rated 149 over fences in Ireland and totally ran away with the good 2m handicap chase at Aintree end of last season

Ran a good 2nd to Notebook over fences earlier this season with decent horses like Mt Pelier and Eclair De Beaufu (won since) in behind. Was interestingly backed into favouritism on return to hurdling at Leopardstown over Christmas and ran too freely in trying to make all but then was given a very tender ride once passed in the straight.

Interesting that this is his only entry at the festival so they’re clearly keen on exploiting his hurdle rating and the owner loves a Cheltenham gamble/winner. Not ideal that he’s a 9yo but that shouldn’t stop him because he’s been sparsely campaigned during his career. Will like give in the ground and sure to be strong up the hill
 
wilsonl said:
Rated 134 in Ireland and been given an extra 7lb by the BHA which takes him to 141 and means he’ll get in but rated 149 over fences in Ireland and totally ran away with the good 2m handicap chase at Aintree end of last season
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Is it not pretty normal for horses to have a hurdles rating around 10lbs lower than their chase rating?

Other than that it's definitely an interesting entry.
 
Maruco said:
Two or three graded horses in disguise is the norm for the horses in the top 8 of the handicap. The level of compression and the ground have an impact, but more significantly is the big stables/owners having such strength in depth with their ammunition that they can carefully campaign future graded horses and save them for handicaps.

Trainers are also not averse to taking a year, or even two years, plotting a horse that's just short of winning Grade 1's back down to handicap marks for a Festival winner. Gigi, JP, Elliott, Mullins, Henderson, Nicholls, Skelton are all increasingly at it, and it's the starting point for any handicap betting at the Festival.
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Agree. This has been increasingly the case for at least a few years and largely ignored through bias towards more recent form and, perhaps to a lesser extent, hype.

Always makes me smile or wince to equal degrees depending on whether or not I've punted such types when they come on TV and say he's had issues, injuries, has only just come back to himself lately etc etc.

They're as well just keeping the horse away from the track for two seasons. The handicapper will allow them 10lbs for that.

And specially for Slim, another mad genius theory:

I'm very suspicious of horses being taken out of training for a while, eg this or that has been sent away to [wherever] to get over an injury or whatever and comes back in ruder than rude health. My suspicion is that they're taken off the radar so that Alberto Salazar can pay them a visit.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Is it not pretty normal for horses to have a hurdles rating around 10lbs lower than their chase rating?

Other than that it's definitely an interesting entry.
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It is but he's 15lb higher over fences according to HRI so he'd arguably be low 150s if running in a race like the Grand Annual, which would have seemed the likely route so I find it interesting that they've elected to go the hurdles route, presumably expecting an ICB tax to get them into the race.
 
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wilsonl said:
It is but he's 15lb higher over fences according to HRI so he'd arguably be low 150s if running in a race like the Grand Annual, which would have seemed the likely route so I find it interesting that they've elected to go the hurdles route, presumably expecting an ICB tax to get them into the race.
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It's been factored in though? 7lb hike, 5 for the improvement, brining it in line with the general 10lb from hurdles to chase, and 2lbs for being Irish trained.
 
Beef or Salmon said:
It's been factored in though? 7lb hike, 5 for the improvement, brining it in line with the general 10lb from hurdles to chase, and 2lbs for being Irish trained.
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I see it slightly differently.

Firstly, I thought wilsonl was quoting his UK mark for chases. Even if he isn't, the ICB tax probably will only be, as you say, a couple of pounds. But I also presumed the chase mark was pretty much independent of his hurdles mark.

Still 141 looks reasonable over hurdles but I wouldn't imagine it's a County winning mark. I'm more inclined to think this is more of an intended defeat in full view of the UK handicapper ahead of a tilt at something like the Topham.
 
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He's 15lbs higher over fences, than hurdles, in Ireland.
The ICB tax over fences would have put him into 150's at festival - and likely not competitive.

The same ICB tax means he can now actually get a run over hurdles and carry a lowish weight and be competitive.

I reckon off 141 over hurdles he still has approx. 7-8lbs in hand of his actual ability- whether that's enough to win or not?
 
That's how I see it DH and you're right it might not be enough but at both 33/1 ante post and 25/1 NRNB I've taken the chance.
 
A few (negative) trends :ninja:

Last handicap debutant to win the Kim Muir was in 1985 and the County Hurdle was in 1993.

All 119 runners in last 15 Grand Annuals to have won a handicap chase that season were beaten.

No first season novice has ever won the Coral Cup.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
A few (negative) trends :ninja:

Last handicap debutant to win the Kim Muir was in 1985 and the County Hurdle was in 1993.

All 119 runners in last 15 Grand Annuals to have won a handicap chase that season were beaten.

No first season novice has ever won the Coral Cup.
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Saw that on Twitter. The Grand Annual stat is incredible.

I want the forum mad genius to comment on this.
 
Slim said:
Saw that on Twitter. The Grand Annual stat is incredible.

I want the forum mad genius to comment on this.
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As long as I back the winner - like Croco Bay last year :lol: - I don't give a flying one.

Seriously, though, I'd like to be able to look into this one a little. Chances are it's some kind of blip. I'm pretty sure there will have been previous seasonal winners beyond the 15yr cut-off - I take it 16 years ago a winner won? - but there seems no logic in it, a bit like tossing a coin and landing tails 15 times in a row.

There's probably a good chance a winner was going to win but was beaten in a photo or fell, etc.

Unfortunately I'm not really able to look closely. My first eye op is next Thursday but I don't know if it will help my reading in the short term.
 
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A quick look while waiting for the fitba' to start:

2019
Bun Doran 2nd - looked like winning, shat out of the challenge

2018
Le Prezien won, arguably was very unlucky in running earlier in the season in the Betvictor, could have been a prior winner

And that's me justing looking at the last two runnings.

I also note the stat specifies handicaps from the same season. There must be plenty that have won non-handicaps on the way there.
 
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