Cheltenham Handicap Watch

Desert Orchid said:
I haven't seen Imperial Aura's race yet so can't form an opinion. If I get a chance today, I might check back through what past winners have been raised.
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2019 Kildisart +6 (Distances: 2L; ½L; 6L)
2018 Mister Whitaker +8 (1¾L; 15L; hd)
2017 Royal Vacation +9 (8L; 1¾L; 10L)

2020 Simply The Betts – distances 1½L; 11L; 5½L

I reckon maybe 8lbs or 9lbs might be the hike (maybe 5lbs for IA) but if the handicapper goes further back through the finishers he might go higher as they seemed strung out.
 
Slim said:
People getting very carried away yesterday. Yes he wasn't off but he will get a mark no less than 148 and more likely 150 for the festival. There is no race at the festival for him this year. He might be aimed at the Irish National or a longer term project like the Paddy Power 2020.
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Agree with most of that - Galway Plate via the Carlingford Lough route would give him 3 handicap runs to get his eye in. Also began his chasing career there. Irish National might come too soon in his career.

Novice status would be intact for next season too.
 
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I was having a bit of a rare lazy day today so thought I'd pop back. Haven't been doing any punting myself or taking much notice of the racing lately but glad to see you're all still at it and hope you're all well and winning. Also glad to see Slim has returned and apparently lost none of his charm ;)
 
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I've now had a look at the STB/IA race from yesterday.

The first three were pretty much abreast of each other going to the last not too far clear of the rest. A few of the beaten horses were easing down or running out of stamina, while Garo DJ plugged on up the hill past them.

My gut says the handicapper will go slightly conservatively with the form. My guess is a rise of 8lbs for the winner and 5lbs for the runner up.
 
Danny said:
I was having a bit of a rare lazy day today so thought I'd pop back. Haven't been doing any punting myself or taking much notice of the racing lately but glad to see you're all still at it and hope you're all well and winning. Also glad to see Slim has returned and apparently lost none of his charm ;)
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Yes yes Danny.

What do you think about the Betfair Hurdle.

Would appreciate your anaylsis.
 
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Marb said:
Yes yes Danny.

What do you think about the Betfair Hurdle.

Would appreciate your anaylsis.
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As said Marb I haven't been keeping up with the racing so have no idea what so ever (not sure that I did when I was keeping up with it) . I think my last bet was the Scottish Nash last year so I've been out of the loop for a while. The betfair was never one of my favourite races tbf but off the top of my head i'd be against hold up horses, being a major handicap hurdle you'd be siding with something showing progression or at the very least the ability to progress rather than a seasoned campaigner and the usual wait to see if the ground ends up like a quagmire and shatters any illusion that you ever held the answer to the puzzle ! That should narrow it down to about 20 runners haha sorry I can't be of more help.
 
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Suggestion:

Anyone exposed on Glenloe might want to have something on No Comment at 25/1 e/w 5 places with Hills.
 
Off 137 Finished 5th last year off 138. Has 6 completed chases. Went off 15/2 in the Paddy Power when falling rated 145 over hurdles. If anything were to happen to Glenloe he would be an amazing bet at 20s. If Glenloe runs he's got a live green hat chance.
 
Desert Orchid said:
2019 Kildisart +6 (Distances: 2L; ½L; 6L)
2018 Mister Whitaker +8 (1¾L; 15L; hd)
2017 Royal Vacation +9 (8L; 1¾L; 10L)

2020 Simply The Betts – distances 1½L; 11L; 5½L

I reckon maybe 8lbs or 9lbs might be the hike (maybe 5lbs for IA) but if the handicapper goes further back through the finishers he might go higher as they seemed strung out.
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Simply The Betts up 9lbs
Imperial Aura up 7lbs
 
Desert Orchid said:
Simply The Betts up 9lbs
Imperial Aura up 7lbs
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FWIW
Trainers comments for SIMPLY THE BETTS before last race.... Considering he was stopped in his run a couple of times at Kempton, Simply The Betts did very well to rally for second. This track might suit him and we think he has decent each-way chances in a hot race.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Simply The Betts up 9lbs
Imperial Aura up 7lbs
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7lbs a tad harsh on Imperial Aura I'd have thought. I thought he'd get 5lbs max(Pocket talk mind!).
Leaves him on OR 143 now. Winner of close bros. last year was OR 144 with the 2nd - 5th all rated OR 141.
Top weight carries 11-7 in that race so the extra 2-lbs (than I expected) shouldn't stop him, if he's good enough!
 
Yes. The handicapper often 'allows' winners an extra pound or two relative to the winning distance, the argument being that winners are less likely to be all out than runners-up. That's why I thought there would maybe be a 3-4lbs difference in the new ratings. I'd still be fairly sure that KB will have left improvement in the runner-up. The winner looked as though he was off for his life the other day so I'll be interested to see if connections have something else in the race at the festival.
 
Double Handful said:
7lbs a tad harsh on Imperial Aura I'd have thought. I thought he'd get 5lbs max(Pocket talk mind!).
Leaves him on OR 143 now. Winner of close bros. last year was OR 144 with the 2nd - 5th all rated OR 141.
Top weight carries 11-7 in that race so the extra 2-lbs (than I expected) shouldn't stop him, if he's good enough!
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I thought he wasn't ridden nearly aggressive enough on Saturday bearing in mind he stays 3 miles. Whereas the winner on Saturday will have to go the graded route.
The shunt up at least means he's going to get in. I'd still have him on the shortlist.
 
Galvin has just been put up by Gavin Lynch for the Close Brothers. A typical Irish 5th or 6th this weekend and he could be on to something.
 
Double Handful said:
I've been studying the same race - the 2.5 novice handicap 13:15 Sat at Cheltenham - but there's been a couple of different ones took my eye, with a forward view to the Close Bros. at the festival. Elliot was fishing for UK H'cap marks with more than just Samcro here. Galvin at 20/1 for the Close Bros. interests me.
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So now Gavin Lynch, as well as Paul Kealy, reading my posts :ninja:
 
Commanche Red looks arguably well handicapped after the weekend as the handicapper has left him alone on 148, which in light of the performances of Saturday's 1st and 3rd; Simply the Betts and On the Slopes, is more than fair considering he beat them both comfortably at Kempton. He'll be 3lb too high for the Close Bros though and doesn't have any graded entries at the festival so if they're keen to run there - and they may not be - then the Plate would be the obvious race.
 
Ken Pitterson in the Weekender:

Imperial Aura ran a very good race for a stable in poor form. He did not look in the best of nick in the paddock and could be a different horse come March.
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I was thinking of laying off the win part of my bet but I've massively reduced my stakes these last few months so losses are negligible in the big scheme of things.

On the plus side:
He'll make the cut.
The winner won't.
He'll almost certainly improve the 7lbs in the meantime.
They could put a good claimer on it.

However, I don't think we should lose sight of just how superior the Irish horses were last year and there has to be every chance that there will be something in the field that would be capable of going close in the JLT but which has been kept well under wraps for the race.
 
That describes A Plus Tard obviously but he was far from held under wraps. The Storyteller likewise before he won the Plate, he ran in Monalee's Flogas. Not sure anything from Ireland has that sort of profile this year
 
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