Cheltenham Handicap Watch

Exactly, as it happens - I was surprised to see Imperial Aura left alone yesterday morning, who’s a qualified, intended runner and looking increasingly well in, although getting short in price now.
 
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wilsonl said:
Exactly, as it happens - I was surprised to see Imperial Aura left alone yesterday morning, who’s a qualified, intended runner and looking increasingly well in, although getting short in price now.
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No one has missed it.
 
Double Handful said:
While he didn't win, Imperial Aura ran well. Looks to have have done the ideal amount to get 4/5 lbs, to get into the close bros. And it's a positive for ante post position with his price cut from 25/1 into 14/1.
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Slim said:
You hould be very happy with your bet. the winner will be getting 10lbs minimum.
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Very happy with my 25/1 Imperial Aura now.
 
365 have cut Kilbricken Storm from 33s to 14s for the Pertemps. I’d guess he needs the racing to be on this weekend in order to qualify.
 
The ground did for Might Bite last year. I am not sure the Cross Country would suit but I think the GC was a very hard race for him, and if possible, they should give him as easy an option as possible to give him some confidence back, on the right ground for him. I would drop him back in trip personally.
 
G-G said:
The ground did for Might Bite last year. I am not sure the Cross Country would suit but I think the GC was a very hard race for him, and if possible, they should give him as easy an option as possible to give him some confidence back, on the right ground for him. I would drop him back in trip personally.
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It was the year before in 2018 when the ground did for might bite. He had his ideal ground in last year's gold cup, but was only a shell of a horse compared to 2018.
 
Think the ground was softer than ideal for the GC. Agreed MB was a shell of a horse though. Shame


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I can't back him.

I am more optimistic than most about his prospects but after sleeping on it, I won't be paying to find out!
 
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I've got through a little research into the difference(s) in handicap marks between the UK and Ireland.

It's obviously a very limited sample. Really all I did was look back through paper-copy of advance entries for some races and check the figures against the official Irish ratings.

HorseCodeIreUKDiff
Chef Des Obeauxch1491490
Cabaret Queench142145+3
Moonshine Baych139140+1
Noble Endeavorch131140+9
Scoir Mearch128130+2
The Jam Manhd143144+1
The Triggerhd85105+20
The Triggerch95115+20
Sir Ectorhd90105+15
Safe Homehd8688+2
Boricehd-147-
Boricech1461460
Cartwrighthd-137-
Thosedaysaregone*hd126132+6

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</tbody>

I highlighted Thosedaysaregone for a number of reasons. The 6lbs differential matches the notional idea I've had of the differential for a long time but it's the only one that does. Also, its figures relate to its situation before it won the big race in Ireland recently. It was entered at Ascot that weekend where its mark was 6lbs higher than in Ireland.

This is why I often claim that UK horses - at least those in the same ball park as the likes of TDAG - will be badly handicapped if they set hoof in Ireland, whereas those nearer the top wouldn't be relative to horses of similar ability but they would be relative to horses much further down the weights.

I know that the marks of horses rated 150+ are supposed to be 'harmonised', ie agreed between the two handicappers but the respective ratings for The Trigger and Sir Ector would point to quite a discrepancy.

For the Festival, though, I don't imagine many horses in the bigger handicaps will be rated below the mid-130s so the huge discrepancies probably won't arise. However, maybe races like the Fred Winter and M Pipe could be there for the Irish horses to exploit if the UK handicapper doesn't raise them too much from their Irish marks.

I suspect, though, there's a lot more to it than that.
 
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Marb said:
I only fancy about three horses for Cheltenham next month.

Fwiw they are Vinndication in the Ultima. Esprit Du Large in the Arkle and Ronald Pump in the Pertemps. All each way.

I figure I only need two or three good results on a decent each way lucky 15 to make a big profit. I certaintly wouldn't be backing or laying too many...or wanting an interest in every race. Not my style.

Might Bite I would put in the 'worth chancing' catagory. If Tiger Roll failed to put in his best, I see very few reasons why a horse as talented as Might Bite couldn't get involved.

Even if Tiger Roll hoses up I can still see Might Bite placing.

You'd be hoping Henderson can revitalise him and he ran well enough yesterday to make me believe that is happening.

As I say. Fair balls for trying it.

Let the horse have a crack at it.

Welcome back to the forum btw. Hope all is well.
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Captain CJ, beaten by Ronald Pump recently won well in Ireland today, Marb…..
 
The handicap entries out soon.

Esprit Du Large

Ronald Pump

Emitom

Each way patent is the bet now.

Might Bite I will give a miss. Too risky. Vinndication is a good horse but he will be up against a load of plots and I don't think he is worth the risk.

So yeah Emitom Ronald Pump amd Esprit Du Large for the each way patent.
 
Marb said:
The handicap entries out soon.

Esprit Du Large

Ronald Pump

Emitom

Each way patent is the bet now.

Might Bite I will give a miss. Too risky. Vinndication is a good horse but he will be up against a load of plots and I don't think he is worth the risk.

So yeah Emitom Ronald Pump amd Esprit Du Large for the each way patent.
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Ronald Pump which race? Pertemps, Ultima or other ??
 
I hope its the Pertemps handicap hurdle, Double.

Entries should be out soon. He is rated quite highly. He could be top weight on the day. 150 is his mark now.

He carries big weights well though.
 
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Marb said:
I hope its the Pertemps handicap hurdle Double.

Entries should be out soon. He is rated quite highly. He could be top weight on the day. 150 is his mark now.
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Ronald Pump is rated 156 over hurdles in Ireland. He's somewhat exposed over hurdles and that's a very high mark to be winning a Pertemps. Not sure he has the required 8-10lbs in hand, if anything. And the possibility of the UK handicapper even giving him a few more. Big ask imo.

He's rated 151 over fences, which while on the face of it looks more appealing, being 5lbs lower than his hurdle mark, it still leaves him a bit in no-mans-land.. very high mark for a novice chaser to win the Ultima off. And surely he's not good enough for the RSA. And he was terrible LTO over fences. Ran and Jumped very poorly.

I see the reasons for liking the horse and he stays very well, but I think connections have quite the conundrum with regards placing him at the festival.

Don't think he's qualified for the NHC either.
 
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His U.K mark is 150 according to my racing bible, The Racing Post. There is no chance the handicapper is raising him to 160+ for Cheltenham is there?

If he is 156 in Ireland then I could argue he is well handicapped for Cheltenham based on his U.K mark.

Taking a look at recent renewals of the Pertemps, horses with big weights are winning it. I think there is one more big handicap hurdle in this horse before stepping up next season or going over fences again.

I think I'd rather be with something with proven form and a big weight than, (to use Matt Chapmans vocabularly) an improving 'roughie' with 10 stone.

Take a look at his last hurdles run where he was second with 11:12 in Ireland...giving a next time out winner about two stone.

He is a class act over hurdles he really is.

My big hope is he recovers from any niggle he may have incurred over fences the last day.

I also hope the owners do an O Leary on the British handicapper and get the handicapper to keep him on 150 which means he'll be top (or joint top) weight in the pertemps.
 
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He doesn’t have a BHA official rating Marb and to the best of my knowledge has never been entered over here to gain a feeler rating.

He could quite conceivably receive a 5 or 6lb hike relative to his HRI rating and if he does he wont be running in the Pertemps off that sort of mark. Presenting Percy and Sire Du Berlais were about 10lb lower when they were top weights or thereabouts.
 
I am not sure where Double got the 156 mark from, Lee.

He ran off 145 the last day over hurdles and was raised 5lbs to 150.

I would agree with Double that his Cheltenham opportunties are limited, especially if he can't run in the Pertemps.
 
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What is the highest mark a horse can run off in the pertemps, Lee?

I am curious. Is there a cut off mark. Like when a horse isn't rated highly enough to run in a race.

If connections have the option of running in it they absoloutely should. He is seventh or eight at 16/1 for the pertemps and that is for a reason.

I just cannot see why at this stage of his career he would run in anything else.
 
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He’s rated 150 over hurdles in Ireland Martin. You can check on the HRI website so he’ll be low to mid 150s if turning up here - which means he probably won’t.
 
Yeah I just want to know what the rules are as to how highly he can be rated in order to be able to run.

If the U.K handicapper rates him 153 lets say when framing the race.

Does that rule him out of the race?

Whats the rules?
 
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wilsonl said:
It’s not a limited handicap so I’m pretty sure there’s no ceiling
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Well thats the key to it then.

He can either run in it on a mark in the low 150's or run in one of the three other races he is currently entered for where he''d not have as good a chance.
 
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