Cheltenham Longshots

Guess who hasn't had time to read the entries yet?

He does look as though he would get the trip, but that stamina would be a major bonus in the Ryanair, which is always run at a good pace. Fingers crossed for that race, Aragorn.
 
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Anyone has a link from the Kempes race today?? Much appreciated sicne ATR dont have the race up on the website for some reason.

Have backed weird al for the Gold Cup NRNB, 50-1 and liked aughlaoor for the 3mile hurdle race, before he bombed last time, he is 33s.
 
Colin Phillips said:
Can we assume now that Kempes doesn't need good ground?
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Those of us present that unforgettable day when Skorcher won the bumper of the 08-09 season at Navan will recall Kempes winning one of the undercard races in very testing ground.

Another winner that day was Telenor, who subsequently won the Grade 2 Ten Up Novice Chase.

Skorcher himself has also acquired some black type in a Listed novice hurdle at Thurles at Clonmel last week.

I regret to say there were certain people who denigrated the quality of the racing that day, but they will have to think again. We were in the presence of greatness.
 
Colin Phillips said:
Can we assume now that Kempes doesn't need good ground?
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I guess you would have to although I think fences and a trip have certainly helped. I would be tempted by the GC if I were the owner but at the same time I think he'll have a better chance in the Ryanair. We'll see.
 
I think that ground requirements are often linked to stamina. i.e. a horse may not 'need' soft ground, however, it might be that he's unable to run up to his optimum over 2m on good ground because he needs a greater test of stamina.
 
You are saying, David, that a horse might want a longer trip on good ground than it would on heavy? But, once it is running over the correct distance, it can perform in any type of ground?

There is no question that a trip takes more getting in heavy ground than it would on good, and therefore there is obvious sense in what you say. But I think only some horses can give their best regardless of going, and that there are plenty of horses who just can't go on ground that doesn't suit them.

Presumably you would accept this too? In which case the real question is how many horses fall into each camp, and how do we recognise them?
 
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davidjohnson said:
I think that ground requirements are often linked to stamina. i.e. a horse may not 'need' soft ground, however, it might be that he's unable to run up to his optimum over 2m on good ground because he needs a greater test of stamina.
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I think this is true but I also think it's true that some horses just don't go on certain ground. Usually that would be driven by breeding.

In the case of Kempes - I find it odd that he was better on good ground over 2 - 2 1/2 miles yet three miles in heavy ground over fences brings out a top class performance?! Makes no sense to me really.

All i'm bothered about now is whether they aim him at the Ryanair!!! Come on JP do the sensible thing and pot hunt!!! Leave the glory for next year!!!
 
Kempes winning the Irish Hennessy says a lot more about how shite the stayers are in Ireland, than it does about his stamina or ground preference.

He has no chance in a Gold Cup (you get my drift, Luke :cool:).
 
Rated 162 for his Hennessy win so realistically he has little chance in the Gold Cup but his rating going into the Ryanair is comparable with the last couple of winners. He's been left in both races.
 
Have to add Starluck to this thread while he still is a long-shot for the Arkle. The 40s, 33s and 25s are long gone and with McCoy up later in the week on his chasing debut he could soon be single figures. He's out to any price for the Champion Hurdle now.
 
Took 40 and 36 about Gauvain for the Ryanair immediately after the race on Saturday. Nick has confirmed him for the race today. Nice.
 
Not a longshot - more a dead cert - one of the Cheltenham specials markets is priced up as follows: (all eventualities covered across various bookies)

2/1
10/3
9/2
7/1

Who wants a bet!
 
On The Bridle said:
What are you on about?
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Seeing as you asked so nicely....

Number of Irish Trained Cheltenham Festival Winners (27 races)

Over 6.5 (Stan James) 2/1
Exactly 6 (William Hill) 10/3
Exactly 5 (WH) 9/2
4 or Less (WH) 7/1

I'm sure I saw Boylesports 6/5 each of two under 6 / over 6, can't remember the price for exactly 6, but they seem to have taken it down. Hills are 5/1 nine or more, 4/1 for eight and 3/1 for seven, so SJ 2/1 over 6.5 looks standout, apart from the obvious of course.
 
Shag it, Kyber Kim at 20-1 or thereabouts in the Champion Hurdle. Course form alone renders him as a very lively outsider at his best.
 
Solwhit may interest some in the World Hurdle, now that Charles Byrnes has dropped the pretence of missing Cheltenham.
 
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