Cheltenham Longshots

Bar the Bull

Bar the Bull

At the Start
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Right, so we have all got our own Festival fancies, and some of us have defended them at length.

This thread will attempt to unearth some potential longer priced winners. What you need to do is put up a horse currently available at 20/1 or over for a race, with a reason as to why you think the Bull Bullion should go on the beast now, before his price collapses to 3/1 as the penny drops in the market.

I will start off with Robinson Collonges in the Jewson Novices' Chase. Remember that this is the new graded novice race over 2m4f, not the handicap, which is now called the Centenary Novices' Chase.

He looked like beating Wishfull Thinking, when falling in a Grade 2 at Wincanton earlier in the season. Wishfull Thinking is now trading at 10/1 for the same race. He was then given an easy confidence builder at Hereford, before he took on seasoned handicappers in the Vote AP Race at Cheltenham in December. After an early mistake he was just getting into contention when he blundered 3 out, and then Fehily gave him an easy time of it as he trailed home over 40L down in ninth.

I have had my eye on him for months for this race, and Betfair odds suggest that this is the race he is most likely to go for (he is 22 on the exchange for this race, 80 for the RSA chase, 66 for the Centenary handicap and 35 for the Festival Plate).

I think he is more than worth a punt for this race at a general 20/1. He will be single-figure odds if he starts, and this must be the most likely race that Nicholls will aim him at; I can't think of any other bullets Nicholls could fire at this race.

Thoughts?
 
Clerks Choice CH although not sure if they will wait for Aintree. His best form has been at Cheltenham and his first run where he took apart Royal Mix in an impressive time I cannot forget. His 4th behind menorah as well was a good run especially as the race wasnt run to suit he will love the strong pace a CH hurdle produces and may just surprise.
 
Big fan of Clerk's choice as well. He looks worth a place bet if he lines up and gets the good ground he needs.

My longshot is Kempes for the Ryanair. This horse needs good ground as well and as soon as he gets it he'll improve. Whether he will turn up in the Ryanair i'm not sure but I got 70 on the exchange so i'm happy to take a chance.
 
I'm already on Clerk's Choice for the CH, Kauto, at lower than current odds unfortunately. If he were mine he'd go for it but I'm not sure that's the case.
 
Cottrelsbooley for the Supreme Novices. Please delete this post if he is humped out the park in the Deloitte on Saturday.
 
Aragorn said:
My longshot is Kempes for the Ryanair. This horse needs good ground as well and as soon as he gets it he'll improve. Whether he will turn up in the Ryanair i'm not sure but I got 70 on the exchange so i'm happy to take a chance.
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Interesting. I was looking at the Ryanair as it's a race where none of the principals appeal. Weird Al caught my eye at 33s but runs in the RP Chase by all accounts.
 
Grasshopper said:
Cottrelsbooley for the Supreme Novices. Please delete this post if he is humped out the park in the Deloitte on Saturday.
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I go for his stablemate Day of a Lifetime in the same race freely available at bigger than 20/1. Savage engine - won doing handstands in two out of his three runs - has learned to settle - could be the new Peddlers!:p
 
Day Of A Lifetime is in the same ownership at Zaidpour - highly unlikely he will run both in the Supreme.
 
Weird Al ran no sort of race LTO and had been a little distressed after his previous run. Has missed earlier engagements bfore RP Chase and I'm a little concerned about his wellbeing.
 
David Nicholson Mares

Banjaxed Girl 25/1 in a place but 75.0 on betfair

Sparky May is second fav and clearly on the upgrade but when you look at the lines of form through Carole's Legacy and the weights carried there really is very little between the three.

The race obviously looks Quevega's to lose but she does have an interesting entry in the World Hurdle although I would expect her to run in this race. If anything were to happen to Quevega or she had an off day then this race is wide open. I don't see many other options for Banjaxed Girl either.

She's trained locally by N.T.D who can ready one for the festival, she's as tough as old boots, handles any going and still improving imo. I think the distance is ideal, she's won a class 1 hurdle at the course and in 12 career starts - 7wins & 4 seconds - impressive - 75.0 is an insult unless someone knows something, if she turns up on the day I think she could go off almost single figure odds.


Banjaxed girls subjected to lavatorial humour at Fowlers' parties:

By Marcus Armytage 9:22PM GMT 10 Jan 2011
It is all down to the humour of her breeder, the Irish Grand National winning trainer John Fowler who was tragically killed in a tree felling accident in December 2008.
Rahinston (pronounced Rainstown) his big, old Victorian family pile in County Meath has long been as famous for the warmth of its hospitality as the lack of warmth of its room temperature. Indeed the term ‘central heating’ comprises an Aga and two electric blankets so only if you are quick between kitchen and bedroom do you have half a chance.
Several things do not work as well as the might have done when it was first built in 1875. This was due, over several generations, to the world famous Fowler entertainments committee borrowing heavily from the annual maintenance budget.

One thing out of action since time immemorial was the first floor loo door and, true to form, instead of having it repaired Fowler wrote the following warning on it: ‘This door is banjaxed - close it at your peril.’
Over the years his Newmarket-based son, Harry, an auctioneer with Tattersalls, has had plenty of parties to which many an English maiden was invited. Whether the message has been lost in translation or the liquid hospitality had been overwhelming, history doesn’t relate but during their stay the vast majority of girls managed, at some stage, to fall foul of the faulty door handle necessitating the need to be rescued by John Fowler. Hence Banjaxed Girl refers to all the females who have spent longer than anticipated admiring the peeling wallpaper in the Rahinston loo.

”Most of them never came back,” says his son. “The only one that did, I married!”
 
Tout Seul said:
Weird Al ran no sort of race LTO and had been a little distressed after his previous run. Has missed earlier engagements bfore RP Chase and I'm a little concerned about his wellbeing.
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Wierd Al had some form of breathing op after the Hennessey, but was back in training shortly after and due out soon
 
Bar the Bull said:
I like Local Hero, too. Looked the type* to continue improving the last day.

Tell me why you like Ebanour so much.

* for Relkeel.
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Ebanour is reported to be a machine. Could of course he just another hype horse, but McCain isn't usually too far wrong when he says a horse is good. He'll be out this weekend and is a nice price currently for the Bumper.
 
Aragorn said:
Big fan of Clerk's choice as well. He looks worth a place bet if he lines up and gets the good ground he needs.

My longshot is Kempes for the Ryanair. This horse needs good ground as well and as soon as he gets it he'll improve. Whether he will turn up in the Ryanair i'm not sure but I got 70 on the exchange so i'm happy to take a chance.
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Looking good, Aragorn.
 
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