Cheltenham Observations

Desert Orchid

Desert Orchid

Senior Jockey
Joined
Aug 2, 2005
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No posts about what you backed etc.

What is your take regarding the value of the form in any race you care to mention looking back at the festival?

I've only just started my extended analysis (I'm the man who put the 'anal' in analysis) and will post selected comments probably towards the end of the week.

In the meantime, I'll kick off with this one to get some hackles up...

Altior would have won the Champion Chase.

PS - it's pretty much a given that pocket-talking might influence our opinions :)
 
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You are probably right but if the real Douvan had turned up Altior had no chance the way he jumped. You could also argue UDS would have won and most likely Sizing John also. One horse I have noted is Wholestone . We were told during the week Twisty had a cough in the yard and stay clear that considered he was his only horse to put up a good performance. I have him down as a serious RSA contender next year who could be a decent price early doors. My main observation was, rather than the Irish horses were well handicapped the english ones have been over accessed and thats were the problem lies.
 
The most interesting one for me would be Nichols Canyon, as I've been going on for over an year that he won't stay, won't stay and then he wins the Stayers Hurdle... The main point about this though is how well the race was setup for him and Ruby Walsh knowing that he can't count on his stamina and said he's going to hold him back which he did, until he lashed out in the final 3 furlongs and passed everything like they weren't there. I think his form over 2 miles is highly superior to this win, Lil Rockerfeller finished 15 lengths behind him in the CH last year but in this division there are vastly inferior horses. NC was in such a good form that I can't but think he would've won the CH as well.
 
Jonjo could have switched More of That to this. He's been proven short of top class over fences all season. Ironically the Stayers Hurdle has been more of a speed test over the years and top horses from the race rarely make the grade in the big Grade1 staying chases. Thistlecrack may have proved it wrong this year if he'd stayed fit though.
 
Gigginstown have dominated the handicaps for a few years now. The markets will catch up next year.
 
My initial reaction to Altior was that he was disappointing; never really travelling as I'd wanted to see and struggling to get the better of Charbel.

Now that I've crunched some numbers and watched the replay, I think Charbel and co have stepped up on previous form (as you might expect coming into the festival).

I think even allowing for what wasn't the devastating performance I'd been anticipating from Altior, the form is reading like top class and my figure for Altior is higher than Special Tiara's. Obviously I'm leaving Douvan out of the equation altogether.

It will be interesting to see what they do now with the beaten horses although I imagine a lot will depend on what the handicapper does. If he leaves the beaten horses on their marks they might clean up in the better handicaps next season and one will almost certainly be put away for the Grand Annual. I just wish I knew which...
 
May well be correct, FR. Since Savill's day the object of UK handicapping has been to stop horses running up sequences, whereas Irish handicappers aren't in thrall to the bookmakers.
Certainly, Kevin Blake's theoy has been blown out of the water by events of the past week.
 
frontrunner said:
My main observation was, rather than the Irish horses were well handicapped the english ones have been over accessed and thats were the problem lies.
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This is actually something that's been gnawing away at me since the County Hurdle and, to be honest, only since then.

With the two 'class' horses fighting out the finish (might have been different with different tactics from one or two others though) it gives the race a fresh perspective. I've said many times on here, trends and stats aren't good guides; that you only win big handicaps if you're seriously well handicapped and it looks like Arctic Fire and L'Ami Serge have been let in lightly. I had Arctic Fire top rated but L'Ami Serge was much closer to the bottom of my ratings table. It was only after the race I remembered hendo had run him against The New One a run or two earlier as he'd been "suggesting he had the speed for a Champion Hurdle" at home. His campaign had been unorthodox and probably helped disguise his true ability, something the Irish are much better at doing.
 
This oughta put a stop to Altior vs `real` Douvan. The TF sectionals show that on much faster ground - 30lb quicker, Douvan in his Arkle was only 0.6 seconds faster than Altior this time around from 3 out. Eyes are deceptive but the clock never lies.

https://www.timeform.com/horse-racing/features/sectionals/sectional-debrief-cheltenham-festival-2017-1832017 said:
Absolute times without context do not always tell the whole story, but there are some interesting figures there, including the fact that Altior ran faster late on in terms of seconds/furlong (13.72) than any other chaser at the entire Festival and that the same distinction over hurdles went to Arctic Fire (13.65 s/f).
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The above Simon Rowlands talks about the average of sectional time from 3 out which for Altior are the 3.75 furlongs and Arctic 3 out new course means 7.1 furlongs. So AF was faster than Altior on almost twice the distance.
 
I know he has the physique of a chaser but I kind of wonder whether they'll stay hurdling with Melon. He has a very flat based pedigree and he has loads of progression left in him. If Faugheen doesn't come back the same surely this horse is their likeliest contender. He lost all momentum landing on all fours at the last in the Supreme and rates better than the bare result.
 
The Mullins stable seem to want to give Paul Townend a winner at the festival ,will always be a decent price aswell once Ruby's riding something else in the race .
 
So AF was faster than Altior on almost twice the distance.



As you would expect I would imagine, hurdlers run faster than chasers because the obstacles are smaller. If Arctic Fire had been jumping fences then his times would have been slower wouldn't they?
 
2 mile chasing took a huge step backwards with Altior failing to excite and Douvan being badly injured.

Altior may have won the Champion Chase the way it turned out but he was flat to the boards from along way out and is clearly no Sprinter Sacre or a Douvan on that performance.

Apple's Jade proved she is much better than I thought she was neither of the Mullin's pair looked like beating her at any stage.

What many were calling a poor Champion Hurdle jumped up and bit them on the ass. Buveur D'air turned in a top class performance equal to that of Faugheen IMO.

Anything is possible ...like let's win a 4 mile race with a Triumph Hurdle winner? Unreal


Might Bite has a screw lose...he stole the show on day 2 but nearly gave Nicky Henderson and 150,000 punters a heart attack

Unowhatimeanharry found out following Thistlecrack is not as easy as it looks.

Willie Mullin was proven correct when he said his most likely winner was UDS who was so impressive even Sprinter Sacre applauded him

Yorkhill looked so quick and racey my impression? talk of Gold Cup's is nonsense.

Young mares pose very little threat to the older ones next season

Jonjo without a winner at the Festival is kinda strange but not as strange as how on earth he gets monkeys like Minella Rocco to peak when it matter?

Sizing John was a much easier winner tahan Don Cossack

Charli ran well but I was really disappointed. Defi's win a huge asset to hurdling....henderson V Hobbs next year will be up for debate.

Biggest lesson learned a long time ago and it has applied every year since. NEVER EVER leave Davy Russell out of calculations
 
J Mangold said:
So AF was faster than Altior on almost twice the distance.



As you would expect I would imagine, hurdlers run faster than chasers because the obstacles are smaller. If Arctic Fire had been jumping fences then his times would have been slower wouldn't they?
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In theory yes the chasers are slower due to the size of the obstacle but some slow down before jumping them and lose momentum. At the festival most of the chasers are brave, good enough jumpers and also their height allows them to treat the fences similarly to how some small hurdlers jump over timber.

Anyways in practice, if you take a look at the above link you'd see that (bar AF), Altior has the fastest finishing time average per furlong any hurdlers/chasers from 3 out. Thats partly due to how his race was ran but shows his quality which on the bare look was the opposite.. you can see on here that people were unimpressed with his performance but the finishing sectionals gives him alot more credit.
 
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the timeform sectional report confirmed what i thought at the time of watching the gold cup. they didn't go a strong pace and it wasn't the usual stamina test. my first take after the race was that dicky johnson's ride of Native River was questionable. i wouldn't be impressed if i'd backed him.
 
The GC was only 6s faster than the Foxhunter. Compare that with Don Cossack and Coneygree who were both 18s faster. I certainly expected there'd be a stronger pace in the GC and would agree that Native River got a disappointing ride and would disagree strongly that Sizing John was a more impressive winner than DC


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viking said:
The GC was only 6s faster than the Foxhunter. Compare that with Don Cossack and Coneygree who were both 18s faster. I certainly expected there'd be a stronger pace in the GC and would agree that Native River got a disappointing ride a


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Which is why I said Don Poli would have outstayed them up the hill.
 
I had the same thoughts with three of them Granger, but hadn't thought about Apples Jade chasing. That's a very good observation.
 
viking said:
The GC was only 6s faster than the Foxhunter. Compare that with Don Cossack and Coneygree who were both 18s faster. I certainly expected there'd be a stronger pace in the GC and would agree that Native River got a disappointing ride and would disagree strongly that Sizing John was a more impressive winner than DC
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I'm not sure to what extent you can take that kind of comparison at face value. The Foxhunters might just have been slowly run.

Anyway, people with long enough memories will recall my putting up Holywell for the Gold Cup on the strength of his first Ultima win. He was 50/1 at the time and was ultimately not quite good enough to win However, he did justify my selecting him in the sense that he went off at 8/1 that day and my figure for him of 168 would have won a fair to middling Gold Cup. I'd hoped he was better than that.

One horse who is better than that which my initial figures are telling me might well be better than Sizing John is - and I'm sure this will be met by all sorts of reactions from shock, horror through stupefaction and into the realms of laughability - this year's dual Ultima winner Un Temps Pour Tout.

Obviously this means I've gone very high with the form but I was right in doing so last season and expect to be right in so doing again.

If Holywell was value at 50/1 then Un Temps Pour Tout is better value at the same price. I've started punting him for next year's Gold Cup.

And remember...

You heard it here first. :whistle:
 
Desert Orchid said:
I'm not sure to what extent you can take that kind of comparison at face value. The Foxhunters might just have been slowly run.

Anyway, people with long enough memories will recall my putting up Holywell for the Gold Cup on the strength of his first Ultima win. He was 50/1 at the time and was ultimately not quite good enough to win However, he did justify my selecting him in the sense that he went off at 8/1 that day and my figure for him of 168 would have won a fair to middling Gold Cup. I'd hoped he was better than that.

One horse who is better than that which my initial figures are telling me might well be better than Sizing John is - and I'm sure this will be met by all sorts of reactions from shock, horror through stupefaction and into the realms of laughability - this year's dual Ultima winner Un Temps Pour Tout.

Obviously this means I've gone very high with the form but I was right in doing so last season and expect to be right in so doing again.

If Holywell was value at 50/1 then Un Temps Pour Tout is better value at the same price. I've started punting him for next year's Gold Cup.

And remember...

You heard it here first. :whistle:
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On your calcs Dessie, Where do you think Un Temp Pour Tout and Arctic Fire would have finished in the GC and CH respectively?
 
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