The biggest problem is you are banging on and on about Ronald Pump for now and he has won **** all. He couldn't beat a horse rated 146 at festival. Sire Du Berlais i now rated higher than him and would be favourite it they were ever to meet. Don't let these facts get in the way of you taking a victory lap with a horse that won nothing.
Cheltenham Race Reviews
- Thread starter Desert Orchid
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The biggest problem is you are banging on and on about Ronald Pump for now and he has won **** all. He couldn't beat a horse rated 146 at festival. Sire Du Berlais i now rated higher than him and would be favourite it they were ever to meet. Don't let these facts get in the way of you taking a victory lap with a horse that won nothing.
Anyone using qualifiers for handicap mark analysis is starting 3 nil down...
Desert Orchid
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Thanks. It does.
As I said, I can't imagine them meeting but if they did and if SDB was seriously targeting the race I too would fancy SDB to win.
But it won't happen.
Look on the bright side, you're highly unlikely to be proven wrong
Maxbet
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The math is there, pound for pound!
Desert Orchid
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Would you not accept that form shown in qualifiers, regardless of how it works out, could be entirely misleading given that the objective is just to qualify and preserve a mark rather than to show off true ability?
In qualifying races for the likes of the athletics at the Olympics, we often see people jogging into a 'guaranteed' spot in the next round rather than breaking world records.
Correlation is not causation.
Desert Orchid
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Just watched the County again. As the TV team are re-running it, Walsh says, "Actually we thought he would win the Supreme but it didn't work out that way and he ended up with a nice mark and he ended up here..."
No wonder it hosed up.
Fair chance they'll do something similar next year.
No wonder it hosed up.
Fair chance they'll do something similar next year.
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There is no need. He is too good. He can mop up all the open company 2m hurdle races in Ireland. There is one good hurdler in Ireland (Abracadabra), unless Envoi Allen goes down that route
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Maxbet
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Of course I realise that, but they still had to qualify against horses that were in there to pick up prize money, the Leopardstown race was truely run and the math backs it up.
They were running out of qualifiers too!
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Maxbet
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You coukd say that about everything in the universe...Whim is no Sir Dragonet
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But you are basically back fitting and patting yourself on the back because the math works. SDB ran to his ability once this year and once only. Every other run should be put in the bin.
Desert Orchid
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I meant re putting away one of their best Supreme hopes next year and getting it into the County off a modest mark.
I wouldn't be surprised if some of the other big trainers, esp Henderson and Elliott, will follow what might be a new template for the race.
Double Handful
At the Start
Interesting topic this. Had Darver star not shown his hand in the Irish champion hurdle, could he have won a county off 146?
Maybe not this Country as Saint Roi was so well in. But in general or bearing future county's and this template in mind.
DS rated 159 now, so according to the hcapper he'd have had 13lbs in hand if he had gone County this year.....
Got you. Yes. That is basically what Elliot has been doing for years now. He has changed the handicapping game at the festival, he is a genius.
If the horse was with Elliot he would have been in the County.
Nicholls started this, and Elliott cottoned on and trumped him with bells on fairly quickly. Don't forget Elliott's mentor was the original master of it. Mullins and Henderson haven't been shy either, and all three are now competing in the same way. Almost every handicap winner could have been found at or near the head of the market and it would have been a full set if Column of Fire had stood up. Look at how many of the places were filled by fancied horses too, and how many win and places come from a small number of stables. There are very few handicaps these guys aren't dominating. Certainly the handicap hurdles anyway. It won't be long before they are planning two and three years ahead for the handicap chases too.
The big stables have so many top quality horses that they can't all win Championship races. Definitely better to know what you've got and plot top class horses to great handicap marks and win big ones at the Festival(s). Getting ahead of it early in the season is well worth it. Saint Roi for example was already out in the pre-season publications as a particularly smart one to look our for with his form heavily franked before he raced in Ireland. The fact he went to Willie was a bonus. I'll also add he was in my tracker back in October and when he had handicap entries I was sitting up and taking notice immediately, as I'd expected him to be a leading Supreme candidate. Thank god for trackers. Without the ones I use I'd miss a bucketful of top information, and in particularly some really good bets at the better early prices on the Friday.
It was Nicholls that started me off looking at the handicaps differently four or five years ago, and my starting point now is these four trainers and looking for the plots. Nicholls was already the master of farming the Saturday handicaps for a long time, until finally Henderson woke up and realised what he had to do to compete. Now Henderson is doing a better job of it than Nicholls. Largely because he has more top end ammunition to plot with.
There's definitely room for a smart owner to be backing Nicholls with serious ammunition again and competing with Giggi, JP and Ricci. Particularly with Giggi withdrawing from the sales now. He's every bit as capable as the others, but he needs to attract money again. He's not short of ego, so I'm surprised he isn't doing the hard yards to attract it. He certainly did when he started out. He pissed off a multitude of trainers by openly touting their owners.
The big stables have so many top quality horses that they can't all win Championship races. Definitely better to know what you've got and plot top class horses to great handicap marks and win big ones at the Festival(s). Getting ahead of it early in the season is well worth it. Saint Roi for example was already out in the pre-season publications as a particularly smart one to look our for with his form heavily franked before he raced in Ireland. The fact he went to Willie was a bonus. I'll also add he was in my tracker back in October and when he had handicap entries I was sitting up and taking notice immediately, as I'd expected him to be a leading Supreme candidate. Thank god for trackers. Without the ones I use I'd miss a bucketful of top information, and in particularly some really good bets at the better early prices on the Friday.
It was Nicholls that started me off looking at the handicaps differently four or five years ago, and my starting point now is these four trainers and looking for the plots. Nicholls was already the master of farming the Saturday handicaps for a long time, until finally Henderson woke up and realised what he had to do to compete. Now Henderson is doing a better job of it than Nicholls. Largely because he has more top end ammunition to plot with.
There's definitely room for a smart owner to be backing Nicholls with serious ammunition again and competing with Giggi, JP and Ricci. Particularly with Giggi withdrawing from the sales now. He's every bit as capable as the others, but he needs to attract money again. He's not short of ego, so I'm surprised he isn't doing the hard yards to attract it. He certainly did when he started out. He pissed off a multitude of trainers by openly touting their owners.
Desert Orchid
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Yes, it's been a notion of mine for some time too that this was how they were operating but I don't think I could have articulated it as well.
I do know that in recent seasons I've done better at the festival handicaps by subsuming the thought process - probably as much subconsciously as consciously - into my reading of the race. I think Blow By Blow a couple of years back would have been one.
Straying off tack a wee bit, I think some trainers used to operate differently. Maybe at the time I was just misreading the form but I recall wondering if Jenny Pitman ran her horses at just 80-90% of their ability before getting them 100% primed for the big target races. That was what my ratings were telling me at the time.
I'm sure I read many years ago that Mark Johnston got his horses fit, well and in form, picking up small races and not openly hiding them from the handicapper but he had batches of feed that had all sorts of natural supplements that were given in the lead up to a big one, allowing the horses to find another jump forward in form.
Clearly the vast numbers with the big trainers give them a huge advantage and I have to say I probably did just as well this festival in the handicaps without digging into the form as I have in the past, just by second-guessing trainer plans. As I said elsewhere, it was really just the prices that put me off the likes of Saint Roi and Chosen Mate. If I hadn't taken 10/1 Dame De Compagnie ante-post I might not have backed her on the day if the price had gone.
It's a mistake I've vowed not to make again.
I do know that in recent seasons I've done better at the festival handicaps by subsuming the thought process - probably as much subconsciously as consciously - into my reading of the race. I think Blow By Blow a couple of years back would have been one.
Straying off tack a wee bit, I think some trainers used to operate differently. Maybe at the time I was just misreading the form but I recall wondering if Jenny Pitman ran her horses at just 80-90% of their ability before getting them 100% primed for the big target races. That was what my ratings were telling me at the time.
I'm sure I read many years ago that Mark Johnston got his horses fit, well and in form, picking up small races and not openly hiding them from the handicapper but he had batches of feed that had all sorts of natural supplements that were given in the lead up to a big one, allowing the horses to find another jump forward in form.
Clearly the vast numbers with the big trainers give them a huge advantage and I have to say I probably did just as well this festival in the handicaps without digging into the form as I have in the past, just by second-guessing trainer plans. As I said elsewhere, it was really just the prices that put me off the likes of Saint Roi and Chosen Mate. If I hadn't taken 10/1 Dame De Compagnie ante-post I might not have backed her on the day if the price had gone.
It's a mistake I've vowed not to make again.
granger
Senior Jockey
This is very true
A sliding doors of horses
Cromwell can clearly train but a smarter play was to be had
We've obviously seen evidence of Skelton copying his old boss's modus operandi too. He's not afraid to plot one for a couple of years. What he lacks among his vast number of horses is the big money purchases though. I think he's missed the boat and he's viewed as more of a Martin Pipe than a Gordon Elliott.
Joseph hasn't yet learnt properly, but given those around him it shouldn't be long before he joins the party. Still too much of his old man in him, in that all he really wants graded winners. He'll learn, and JP and Fran will get him with the programme.
The one to watch is Olly Murphy. He's starting to get good young horses and he has Gordon as his mentor. If he can attract the right owners he'll be lethal. He's doing a pretty good job now with Saturday and midweek handicappers, but it was noticeable how many more expensive horses he had last season. I'm sure we can expect the same this season, and another twelve months will almost certainly be the tipping point where he gets backed or goes backward.
Interesting that none of Nicky's protege have really threatened, and Willie's is pretty much a closed shop so there aren't any spin-offs, although I reckon nephew Emmett is worth watching.
Will Ruby take over from his old man at some point? If so, he'll get the owners and he'll know how to deliver.
Joseph hasn't yet learnt properly, but given those around him it shouldn't be long before he joins the party. Still too much of his old man in him, in that all he really wants graded winners. He'll learn, and JP and Fran will get him with the programme.
The one to watch is Olly Murphy. He's starting to get good young horses and he has Gordon as his mentor. If he can attract the right owners he'll be lethal. He's doing a pretty good job now with Saturday and midweek handicappers, but it was noticeable how many more expensive horses he had last season. I'm sure we can expect the same this season, and another twelve months will almost certainly be the tipping point where he gets backed or goes backward.
Interesting that none of Nicky's protege have really threatened, and Willie's is pretty much a closed shop so there aren't any spin-offs, although I reckon nephew Emmett is worth watching.
Will Ruby take over from his old man at some point? If so, he'll get the owners and he'll know how to deliver.
Nicholls just isn't good enough at punting. All the Elliot plots get smashed and that's very attractive to a certain set of owners. Nicholls is a genius AFTER the race has been run and his horse has been sent off 100 on the machine. He got completely out plotted in the Grand Annual. You can't farm Saturday handicaps and win the festival handicaps. You do one or the other. I put a line through all of his in the festival handicaps.
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Chosen Mate was 10/1 the week before the race. They absolutely smashed it.
Then you've missed some good returns over the last few seasons. Not sure why you'd strike a line through in advance. Particularly the juvenile hcap hurdle, the Coral Cup, and the Martin Pipe where his win and place record in recent seasons is really good..
Desert Orchid
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Ollie Murphy was one of the trainers I was looking out for at Cheltenham. I realised last year when he got Thomas Darby and Itchy Feet to place in the Supreme at big prices he was going to take some watching this year, especially in the handicaps.
It ended up looking like he really just didn't have the firepower.
granger
Senior Jockey
He has spent good money at the sales so he should have some decent ammo