Cheltenham Race Reviews

Coming back to the Sire Du Berlais v Ronald Pump debate...

I've put some figures on the festival and previous performances.

I wouldn't say I was a 'fan' of either horse so have done this with no agenda to back-fit.

I think it's fair to say that SDB was campaigned with the Final in mind whereas I'm not sure if RP had a definite target, or if it was originally the Final then they clearly overplayed their hand.

It's entirely possible RP could have got into the final well enough handicapped to win or go very close.

SDB didn't show anything like his real ability until the Final. A couple of jogs around, including at Leopardstown (regardless of how collateral form may appear), prior to what the Form Book noted was a big eyecatching run at Warwick which qualified him, looks like planning expertly executed. I would have to confess, though, that while I half-expected him to win the other week I wasn't sure he would find the requisite improvement against other obvious plots so wasn't sure if he was betting material.

The Storyteller was just as big a plot but not as obvious as he'd risen to 160 over fences. Normally in my book that would make him potentially, if that's the right word, a 150 hurdler, which compared favourably to his last official mark of 142 back in Nov 17. I wonder if it was Davy Russell's idea to bring him back over hurdles but even his first run this season over them saw him bomb over in America. He then beat the 127-rated Mary Frances in what turned out to be a public gallop at Clonmel. That let the handicapper take him back to 142 at Leopardstown when he was allowed to jog on into a qualifying place in sixth (SDB behind). The UK handicapper decided that was enough to warrant a rating of 149, so not far off where he should have been based on his chase form.

Ronald Pump was a big improver last season, ending it on 145 after a nice win in the novices' handicap final at Fairyhouse. With normal improvement he could have been expected to become at least a 155 horse this season and was duly put up to 156 for winning the Leopardstown qualifier, which also suggested he was still on a curve. He wouldn't have got into the Cheltenham race off 145, though. The handicapper would almost certainly have put him on 151 or 152. It turned out the UK handicapper put him up to 156. He clearly rated the Leopardstown race. He would need to be a 166+ horse to have any chance of placing in the Final, let alone winning it, and if he was going to have any chance of winning it he'd really only have Paisley Park to worry about in the Stayers'.

Connections did the right thing in sending him for the stayers after Leopardstown but if he hadn't shown his hand there he could have got into the Final off that 151/152 mark.

My figures for the two festival races are:

Sire Du Berlais 163
Ronald Pump 157

Given the way the stayers' was run and that PP didn't run his race, there is every chance SDB would have run away with it as he would have been held up off the strong pace.

Had RP run in the Final off 151 he would most likely have finished somewhere between The Storyteller and Tout Est Permis.
 
Slim said:
There are some quite simply awful takes on this thread. Right or wrong I'll argue my point. It can be frustrating seeing people learn nothing from what happened at the festival , it's like am episode of Seinfeld.
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You haven't even learnt that there's no ******* 4 miler anymore.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Coming back to the Sire Du Berlais v Ronald Pump debate...

I've put some figures on the festival and previous performances.

I wouldn't say I was a 'fan' of either horse so have done this with no agenda to back-fit.

I think it's fair to say that SDB was campaigned with the Final in mind whereas I'm not sure if RP had a definite target, or if it was originally the Final then they clearly overplayed their hand.

It's entirely possible RP could have got into the final well enough handicapped to win or go very close.

SDB didn't show anything like his real ability until the Final. A couple of jogs around, including at Leopardstown (regardless of how collateral form may appear), prior to what the Form Book noted was a big eyecatching run at Warwick which qualified him, looks like planning expertly executed. I would have to confess, though, that while I half-expected him to win the other week I wasn't sure he would find the requisite improvement against other obvious plots so wasn't sure if he was betting material.

The Storyteller was just as big a plot but not as obvious as he'd risen to 160 over fences. Normally in my book that would make him potentially, if that's the right word, a 150 hurdler, which compared favourably to his last official mark of 142 back in Nov 17. I wonder if it was Davy Russell's idea to bring him back over hurdles but even his first run this season over them saw him bomb over in America. He then beat the 127-rated Mary Frances in what turned out to be a public gallop at Clonmel. That let the handicapper take him back to 142 at Leopardstown when he was allowed to jog on into a qualifying place in sixth (SDB behind). The UK handicapper decided that was enough to warrant a rating of 149, so not far off where he should have been based on his chase form.

Ronald Pump was a big improver last season, ending it on 145 after a nice win in the novices' handicap final at Fairyhouse. With normal improvement he could have been expected to become at least a 155 horse this season and was duly put up to 156 for winning the Leopardstown qualifier, which also suggested he was still on a curve. He wouldn't have got into the Cheltenham race off 145, though. The handicapper would almost certainly have put him on 151 or 152. It turned out the UK handicapper put him up to 156. He clearly rated the Leopardstown race. He would need to be a 166+ horse to have any chance of placing in the Final, let alone winning it, and if he was going to have any chance of winning it he'd really only have Paisley Park to worry about in the Stayers'.

Connections did the right thing in sending him for the stayers after Leopardstown but if he hadn't shown his hand there he could have got into the Final off that 151/152 mark.

My figures for the two festival races are:

Sire Du Berlais 163
Ronald Pump 157

Given the way the stayers' was run and that PP didn't run his race, there is every chance SDB would have run away with it as he would have been held up off the strong pace.

Had RP run in the Final off 151 he would most likely have finished somewhere between The Storyteller and Tout Est Permis.
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For interest I went a pound lower for each Maurice. I have ++ against both though, although for slightly different reasons. I think they’re marks will be irrelevant though as I expect them both to be campaigned in graded company next season with the Stayers the target.

Of the two, I’d expect Sire du Berlais to be the genuine challenger. His style will suit a truly run championship race. One of the new kids on the block (probably Thyne Hill) is bound to come through. Paisley Park is an unknown for now, and Lisnager Oscar has been underrated by most, but we should get a line on those two with Thyne Hill and the novice form in the first half of the season. Ronald Pump is one of those horses that will need to find some unexpected improvement, or I suspect more likely hope for a soft graded race. A nice horse for connections, but they may be better trying to sort out his kinks over fences while they have plenty of time with him.
 
Ronald Pump has had 16 hurdles outings, and has found his level. Don't know where you think any improvement is going to come from that would justify a ++, Maruco.

The Stayers remains a turd of a race, and all of the principals are massively vulnerable next season, imo.
 
17 days later and still talking about Ronald Pump.

Where did I put that two for one Woodies rope...
 
Grasshopper said:
Ronald Pump has had 16 hurdles outings, and has found his level. Don't know where you think any improvement is going to come from that would justify a ++, Maruco.

The Stayers remains a turd of a race, and all of the principals are massively vulnerable next season, imo.
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What a daft post.

Ronald Pump has gone from a mark of 102 to 160+ in just over 12 months, but you don't know or aren't sure where more improvement might come from? Logic tells you he can keep improving, based on what he has been doing, surely?

I find the idea a dual Pertemps Hurdle winner who was plotted for the race on each occasion is going to step up in to graded company next season and wipe the floor with graded animals far more far fetched. If anything it's Sire who has reached his peak.

I'd be much more worried about JP's lightly raced Coral Cup winner, Dame De Compagnie, in terms of a likely staying hurdle champion coming through the ranks. She looked like an absolute beast. Any mare who can do that on just her eight start over hurdles is one hell of a horse to look forward to.
 
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RP is rated 159 (not 160+) after being beaten 2L by a horse rated 146 going into the Stayers. This tells me all I need to know about how shabby an event it was for a G1, given the favourite (miles clear of the rest on form), clearly didn't run his race.

Dame De Compagnie is a mare, not a "he".

No faulting your post for accuracy or fanboyism though.

Fill your boots whenever he runs next, if you want to learn the hard/expensive way.
 
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Yes I think the only part I agree with others on is that Lisnagar Oscar winning does make the form look less attractive on paper.

I do admire how a horse like Ronald Pump has improved the way he has. He hasn't got that much to find to win it next year I hope.

I don't usually back horses months out for a race but I just had a look at the early prices for next years stayers and fair play to the layers for offering 20's.

He is still only a 7yo. If he was trained by a Mullins or Henderson he'd be half the price he is now for the Stayers 2021.
 
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Age is immaterial when you have had this many runs.

I remember hearing the same ‘will improve’ arguments made about 6yo Kasbah Bliss, when he’d already had approaching 20 hurdles starts.

Back him if you want. I’ll be looking elsewhere, for something that is less exposed and genuinely progressive.
 
Grasshopper said:
Ronald Pump has had 16 hurdles outings, and has found his level. Don't know where you think any improvement is going to come from that would justify a ++, Maruco.
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From March last year up to the festival this year, RP had just four runs over hurdles. His ORs went:

123, 136, 145, 156.

By any measurement that has to represent improvement. According to the IHRB site he's still rated 156 so you could argue that the curve has reached its plateau. Perhaps the database hasn't been updated yet.

Grasshopper said:
The Stayers remains a turd of a race, and all of the principals are massively vulnerable next season, imo.
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I agree that the way this race was runs renders it largely negligible but I've looked through it for angles with which to tag a meaningful rating for each of the principals. It looks like Maruco has done likewise and reached similar conclusions.

Whether I would rely on those ratings to be supported by future form is another matter.

Big field handicaps tend to be - though not always - more truly run and the form tends equally to be more reliable.

What many punters (and pundits, sadly) seem not to appreciate is just how much winning they take, most especially modern-day festival handicaps. Horse handicapped to win decent Saturday TV handicaps are lucky to run into a place in the main festival handicaps nowadays. But because the handicapper knows he'll be crucified for raising a narrow winner 14lbs he lets them off relatively lightly thereby enabling connections to campaign him for a race a further twelve months down the line.

What happens in between is that these horses come out and run when they're only fannying about at home and not being trained seriously, getting well backed because they're festival winners but disappointing so punters end up questioning the value of the form.

Of course, sometimes the race takes so much winning it leaves its mark on the horse (eg UTPT after its second Ultima) that it's simply gone.
 
I should add, I keep looking at the Boodles to try and get a proper handle on it.

There's at least one angle that suggests it might have been a higher-class race than the Triumph and one that suggests it was perhaps up there with the Champion Hurdle. Right now I'm looking for good reasons other than 'can't-possibly-be' for dismissing them.
 
Ronald Pump: could have a crack at the French Champion Hurdle next

By David Jennings
MAR 29 2020

Stayers' Hurdle runner-up Ronald Pump, who was bought for just €1,000, could tackle the French Champion Hurdle in May if the restrictions caused by coronavirus are lessened in the coming weeks.

Trainer Matthew Smith admitted he was left wondering what could have been at the festival had his 20-1 shot not endured a troubled passage up the home straight nor crashed through the final flight.

Despite getting little luck in running, Ronald Pump still managed to get within two lengths of the winner Lisnagar Oscar and Smith is keen to have a crack at the Grande Course de Haies d'Auteuil (French Champion Hurdle) on May 16, a race Benie Des Dieux won so impressively last year.

Smith said: "It was a brilliant run at Cheltenham and we were obviously thrilled with him, but I was a little bit disappointed as he didn't get much luck on the way down to the last. He didn't jump the last well at all either. In fact, he didn't jump well on the day. He's usually much better than that.

"If someone had offered me second before the race, I would have snapped their hand off but when you look back at the replay it's hard not to feel a bit disappointed. I wasn't surprised he ran so well. I would have been shocked had he not finished in the first three."

On plans for the seven-year-old, Smith said: "There are a lot of options in France and I'm strongly considering having a go at the French Champion Hurdle. It would be right up his street and the prize-money is good. There are quite a few races in France I had my eye on but who knows what's going to happen with this coronavirus.

"He's in great form but his back was very sore after Cheltenham and that was probably why he didn't jump as well as he can."

The ultimate aim for Ronald Pump is another bid at the Stayers' Hurdle next season, and his trainer added: "Fingers crossed we'll get back there in the same sort of form. He'll stay hurdling anyway."
 
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FFS the French Champion is about as likely to go ahead as ******* Aintree. Dave Jennings another stupid **** stealing a ******* living.
 
In other news:

March 29 2020

Talkinghorses forum contributor Desert Orchid, who can be had for just £1000, could have his way with TV presenter and former world poker champion Victoria Coren, weatherwoman Carol Kirkwood and Countdown's Rachel Riley all at the same time in the stayers' humpathon in May if coronavirus restrictions are lifted.

The contributor was disappointed that his attempt at servicing all three failed at the Cheltenham festival in March as none of the four were there.

He said, "If you'd told me beforehand that I'd have done all three I'd have snapped your hand off, but thinking about it now, I was really unlucky as I was unable to leave the house. I've no idea what happened to the burdz and I look forward to having another go next year as that's what I'll be training myself for."
 
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The horse only cost a grand. Another reason for me to admire. If he wins a French Champion Hurdle he shortens for the Stayers. Don't let your biases get in the way of a good anti-post punting angle.
 
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I have nothing against the horse.

My post was a pop at DJ's piece. It's a complete space-filler.

It's a great story for racing that it only cost a grand.

It could win a French Champion Hurdle when you consider how many second-rate winners there have been.

As for next year's Stayers', he couldn't win this year's when it fell completely apart and next year he'll still have Paisley Park and Lisnagar Oscar to deal with plus the new kids on the block.

In the lead up to this year's festival you hammered on about this horse and ended up being proved wrong on all counts before admitting a few days beforehand that you hadn't even backed the thing yet.

Have you backed RP for next year's stayers' hurdle yet? If not, why not? And why go on about ante-post angles if you've no intention of exploiting them?
 
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I hammered on that I wanted him in the pertemps as he was looking like a potential winner to me and was 16/1 but that I wouldn't back him until the weights came out.

At about that time it was clear from trainer comments he was going for the Stayers. I was happy to watch and see at this point. I also fancied Emitom so wasn't mad keen to back Ronald Pump even though as I said to Maxbet before raceday I thought Ronald Pump would run very well..

How exactly I was "wrong about him" I really don't know. All I ever said was he was a very good hurdler and could win the pertemps even off 156. I think bullshit of this enormity will have plenty of people who saw how much I was championing Ronald Pump before the Festival in uproar!

You really are a very clever pretentious sod at times!
 
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Nah I'd much rather keep talking about Ronald Pump.

I will screen shot my bets on him for next years stayers hurdle, in the run up to next years festival especially for you and this place.

Okey cokey.
 
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I don't get why we're baiting marb over this. Effectively, he tipped up a 50-1 shot that finished second - worthy of the long shot thread if you ask me.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
In other news:

March 29 2020

Talkinghorses forum contributor Desert Orchid, who can be had for just £1000, could have his way with TV presenter and former world poker champion Victoria Coren, weatherwoman Carol Kirkwood and Countdown's Rachel Riley all at the same time in the stayers' humpathon in May if coronavirus restrictions are lifted.

The contributor was disappointed that his attempt at servicing all three failed at the Cheltenham festival in March as none of the four were there.

He said, "If you'd told me beforehand that I'd have done all three I'd have snapped your hand off, but thinking about it now, I was really unlucky as I was unable to leave the house. I've no idea what happened to the burdz and I look forward to having another go next year as that's what I'll be training myself for."
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:lol:
 
simmo said:
I don't get why we're baiting marb over this. Effectively, he tipped up a 50-1 shot that finished second - worthy of the long shot thread if you ask me.
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Well said, & if it had been his selection, he'd be dining out on it for the next 2 decades,at least
 
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