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Cheltenham Race Reviews

Towend did nothing wrong in my opinion, had no chance at the weights's... Aramon and Buildmeupbuttercup, were both ridden from the back, but they cruised up effortlessly, to jump the second last almost alongside the winner. From the second last the winner was tanking on the bridle, Moon Over germany (ridden from the rear) and BMUBCUP cruised up to challenge too, the front runners came under pressure with Aramon going past them easy enough but having to work to do so. All the time the winner is swinging away with a ton in hand, Barry presses the overdrive button and whoosh. Aramon picks up the other two, who had been travelling much smoother into it; with a lot more ease than the distance would have you think.
 
an capall said:
I too thought Townend was nonchalent on Relegate and his performance was compounded in that the trainer is trying to rescramble up the greasy pole and the mare is the only serious ammunition he has at this point. A win or closer place would have been hugely significant for CA Murphy. That's why I was surprised Hayes, (hungrier) got off.

That said, my biggest collect of the week and the one that dug me out of a hole was Ferny Hollow on whom I thought he was masterful. FH is trained by WPM and owned by Chevely Park.
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Hayes is terrible Colm. You couldn't put him.up in a race like that. Relegate ante post backers will have been thrilled with the booking.
 
King didn't mention Blacko at all in his Weekender review of last week's efforts. He did mention Deyrann De Carjac, who fractured a knee, and listed that as his low point of the week.
 
Without doing in depth research, I've a feeling almost all of kings ran well below par and expectations...

I had him 3rd on a mental list of trainers horses who significantly underperformed at the festival, after Tizzard and Hobbs.
 
Double Handful said:
Without doing in depth research, I've a feeling almost all of kings ran well below par and expectations...

I had him 3rd on a mental list of trainers horses who significantly underperformed at the festival, after Tizzard and Hobbs.
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I might run that by someone to see if we could get A/E figures for trainer/jockeys. It would be a nice addition to the thread.
 
Can’t recall Alan King having a festival winner for several years


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Frankel said:
Probably AP in the Ryanair.
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Year Stats XSP
Runs Non-runs Won SR Avg. Price P & L ROI
2015 15 0 1 6.67% 24.31 4.66 31.05%
2016 16 0 0 0.00% 51.75 -16.00 -100.00%
2017 23 0 0 0.00% 72.78 -23.00 -100.00%
2018 13 0 0 0.00% 39.73 -13.00 -100.00%
2019 10 2 0 0.00% 72.45 -10.00 -100.00%
2020 12 0 0 0.00% 78.44 -12.00 -100.00%
All 89 2 1 1.12% 56.73 -69.34 -77.91%
 
In order of winners. 2015-2020

Trainer Stats XSP
Runs Non-runs Won SR Avg. Price P & L ROI
W P Mullins 337 6 39 11.57% 30.73 91.50 27.15%
Gordon Elliott 181 11 28 15.47% 28.07 148.99 82.31%
Nicky Henderson 206 7 17 8.25% 36.86 -34.51 -16.75%
Paul Nicholls 152 6 12 7.89% 30.31 46.41 30.53%
Henry De Bromhead 89 4 6 6.74% 59.63 133.33 149.81%
David Pipe 62 2 4 6.45% 53.03 -16.93 -27.31%
Dan Skelton 79 6 4 5.06% 74.41 33.35 42.22%
Colin Tizzard 97 1 3 3.09% 85.07 -41.06 -42.33%
Mrs John Harrington 33 1 3 9.09% 34.68 11.92 36.12%
E Bolger 23 0 3 13.04% 23.45 -8.23 -35.80%
Nick Williams 22 0 3 13.64% 41.18 48.96 222.55%
Patrick G Kelly 7 0 3 42.86% 9.37 28.44 406.29%
Warren Greatrex 39 2 2 5.13% 64.43 -10.70 -27.45%
Philip Hobbs 81 1 2 2.47% 40.89 -72.40 -89.38%
Ben Pauling 28 3 2 7.14% 83.09 5.00 17.86%
Nigel Twiston-Davies 88 5 2 2.27% 69.81 -70.30 -79.89%
Kim Bailey 23 2 2 8.70% 71.09 32.55 141.52%
Rebecca Curtis 31 0 2 6.45% 128.10 103.50 333.87%
Joseph Patrick O'Brien 42 1 2 4.76% 33.10 -29.20 -69.52%
Harry Fry 30 3 1 3.33% 34.97 -17.58 -58.60%
Tom George 49 4 1 2.04% 54.93 -36.50 -74.49%
A J Martin 17 2 1 5.88% 35.87 7.00 41.18%
Mick Channon 12 0 1 8.33% 42.67 -1.77 -14.75%
 
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Slim said:
Year Stats XSP
Runs Non-runs Won SR Avg. Price P & L ROI
2015 15 0 1 6.67% 24.31 4.66 31.05%
2016 16 0 0 0.00% 51.75 -16.00 -100.00%
2017 23 0 0 0.00% 72.78 -23.00 -100.00%
2018 13 0 0 0.00% 39.73 -13.00 -100.00%
2019 10 2 0 0.00% 72.45 -10.00 -100.00%
2020 12 0 0 0.00% 78.44 -12.00 -100.00%
All 89 2 1 1.12% 56.73 -69.34 -77.91%
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Christ it was AP then.
 
In terms of the Broodles hurdle I think the two horses they bet overnight were head scratching. The other yoke they bet Palladium was rated 73 on the flat. Just a crazy market and I've no idea why the JP horses were so weak and also Recent Revelations was a mad price at the off.
 
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Maxbet said:
Towend did nothing wrong in my opinion, had no chance at the weights's... Aramon and Buildmeupbuttercup, were both ridden from the back, but they cruised up effortlessly, to jump the second last almost alongside the winner. From the second last the winner was tanking on the bridle, Moon Over germany (ridden from the rear) and BMUBCUP cruised up to challenge too, the front runners came under pressure with Aramon going past them easy enough but having to work to do so. All the time the winner is swinging away with a ton in hand, Barry presses the overdrive button and whoosh. Aramon picks up the other two, who had been travelling much smoother into it; with a lot more ease than the distance would have you think.
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That’s my interpretation of the race too. Barry could have pressed the button when he liked and could have won as far as he liked. Saint Roi will be some horse if the natural progression happens next season.
 
Maruco said:
That’s my interpretation of the race too. Barry could have pressed the button when he liked and could have won as far as he liked. Saint Roi will be some horse if the natural progression happens next season.
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I've never argued that Saint Roi shouldn't have won. I've said it probably would have won regardless. I've only argued that Aramon got a tactically dwarfish ride.

I could accept that there might have been an element of circumstance involved. Maybe he missed the kick, maybe the jockey took a pull early and the horse over-responded and them found itself in a difficult position.

The only thing I can't accept is that the horse ran to the best of its ability. I accept it got the best possible placing, on the premise that it wouldn't have troubled Saint Roi, but it could easily have been clear daylight ahead of the third horse.
 
Double Handful said:
Without doing in depth research, I've a feeling almost all of kings ran well below par and expectations...

I had him 3rd on a mental list of trainers horses who significantly underperformed at the festival, after Tizzard and Hobbs.
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King is fu*cking useless. Still amazes me why people would have any ‘expectations’ when it comes to his horses.

He is the most over-rated trainer in the UK by a country-mile.
 
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I can't let you say that about my ex-boss. I never understood how he got the gig. He is still getting decent horses and seems to do alright with his handicappers on the flat.
 
Desert Orchid said:
I've never argued that Saint Roi shouldn't have won. The only thing I can't accept is that the horse ran to the best of its ability. I accept it got the best possible placing, on the premise that it wouldn't have troubled Saint Roi, but it could easily have been clear daylight ahead of the third horse.
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It Could have been clear daylight, but what for?

Take the winner out of the race, everyone would be saying; "what a ride"

Aramon will be better over further, by Monsun ( 1-0-16-14-1 (32) DI = 0.39 CD = -0.44) out of an In The Wings mare, with another German mare in the tail line. The plan from here was probably Liverpool where he ran a belter against Felix Desjy over an inadequate 2m (pulling right away from Rouge vif, closing all the way to the line) right after Cheltenham last year.
 
Maxbet said:
It Could have been clear daylight, but what for?

Take the winner out of the race, everyone would be saying; "what a ride"

Aramon will be better over further, by Monsun ( 1-0-16-14-1 (32) DI = 0.39 CD = -0.44) out of an In The Wings mare, with another German mare in the tail line. The plan from here was probably Liverpool where he ran a belter against Felix Desjy over an inadequate 2m (pulling right away from Rouge vif, closing all the way to the line) right after Cheltenham last year.
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Hattons grace hurdle next season maybe? Likely have to face Honeysuckle there though.
 
I'd be fairly confident that Townend was riding to instructions. I wouldn't know about this season but last season the instructions were to wait and come with a long run with the intention of hitting the front over or after the last. The 2 Cheltenham runs are the only time he's run in double figure runner fields and in the Supreme he tried the inside. I'd say that that experience made them opt for the outside this time as it was the only way of being sure of a clear run at the right time ie. the start of that run.
 
Maxbet said:
It Could have been clear daylight, but what for?
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I sympathise a lot with this angle. It would tie in with the idea of knowing in advance that, barring mishap, Saint Roi was already thought to be past the post so no need to ride Aramon to give either an unnecessarily hard race.


Maxbet said:
Take the winner out of the race, everyone would be saying; "what a ride"
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I'm an advocate of 'take x out' when exploring different ways of assessing a race. I imagine many would be lauding the ride but just as others have said about Russell on Envoi Allen and Geraghty on SDB in last year's Pertemps, I would argue the horse was good enough to get him out of trouble.

Maxbet said:
The plan from here was probably Liverpool where he ran a belter against Felix Desjy over an inadequate 2m (pulling right away from Rouge vif, closing all the way to the line) right after Cheltenham last year.
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Makes plenty of sense and arguably supports the idea of not being 100% here to win.
 
Ballymore v Coral Cup

I've done some very rudimentary sectional timings but I reckon I'm getting slightly misleading evidence compared with official times.

According to official times, the Ballymore was 6.67s faster than the Coral Cup. My approximate timings from the TV recording, taken from flight 1, has the handicap approximately five seconds slower.

As with the two races on the first day, I can see no hurdle-by-hurdle breakdown of times anywhere so I did my own. Again, with no decimal points available, they can only be very rough approximations since a second equates to about five lengths.

They got from 1 to 2 at the same speed. The Ballymore was then fully four seconds - 20 lengths - faster from 2 to 3. It was another five seconds faster to 4. Another second faster to 5, so by this point the Ballymore was 10s, or about 50 lengths ahead of the handicap.

On the run to 6 the Cup pulled back a second but the Ballymore re-established the gap by 7.

On the run to 8 the Cup pulled back 2s, to 9 (a shortish run) they were the same speed, and going to the last the Cup pulled back another second.

From the last to the line, Dame De Compagnie was two seconds (about 10 lengths) faster than Envoi Allen.

How many racing diehards would have watched the two races and come to the conclusion that DDC was ten lengths faster than EV from the last?

For me, the conclusion is that the Ballymore was a very solidly run race whereas the Cup was a jog and sprint from the run towards the stands first time round, only quickening up seriously from two out.

I suspect these splits suggest that Russell, for all I thought maybe the horse got him out of being too far off the lead approaching the home turn, probably judged the pace very well. Geraghty, in sitting on the heels of the pace for most of the race, had DDC in the ideal position to win, given her superiority.
 
Do you not put both recordings up side by side DO.
I do, I set one up and as they jump the first, I pause it...let the second one run and release the pause at the same time...in this manner you can get a better all round feel for pace, travellers and urgency from the jocks?
 

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