Curragh Weekend

The 35,000 price at the sales looks even more strange now for Emperor Claudius! You could see them sell him off to the States. Likeable horse.
 
Gareth Flynn said:
but I was really taken by Tactic on Saturday.
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Hard to know. I was on the rails a furlong out and Smullen had pretty much accepted that Profound Beauty wasn't going on the ground. She reallys prefers it softer. And the Stoute horse was pulled up. So not much of a race in the end but then its a long way to next season cup races. After all, the Gold Cup is a specialist Group 1 :D
 
I liked the way Carraiglawn ran in the Derby. Might not have gotten home as he looked like he was going to stay on past the two pole but seemed to stop at the furlong marker.

Clondinerry is one for further. He just didn't have the gears when they quickened and I thought Keegan went a little to slow on him early on. It will be interesting to see what the handicapper does to the horses that ran behind the Johnston horses as they are effectively winners without a penalty in the Irish scene. Can he give them 5lbs or just 2/3lbs?
 
Tactic has 2 races now which could conceivably be rated in the low 120's. I'm not convinced he's run against a rival in either race that has given their running. I'd still err very much on the side of caution with him, particularly as he doesn't look the heartiest. That said, the staying division is so weak at present that even if he's more like a 116/7 animal, he's likely to be good enough to win more pattern races.
 
Galileo said:
Cape Blaco 119
Midas Touch 118
Jan V 117
At First Sight 116
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Surely either At First Sight is a wee bit too high, or the others are a wee bit too low?

Sheikh said:
RP is right, the handicapper is wrong parish.

I liked Emperor Claudius too.
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He was sweating something serious beforehand, but then so was I. It was a hot day. Something like the Minstrel Stakes would be an interesting target for him.
 
Don't know about that, At First Sight came 2nd in the English derby and has been absolutely f*cked with since. Amazed he finished so close after 2 quick runs, one very gruelling.

If they'd not ran him at Ascot like prize winning idiots, he probably would have been involved in the finish.
 
The races run on the stands side over the weekend showed a very strong, even ridiculous, draw bias. The horses reaching the frame came from the following stalls:

Ballygallon Stud Stakes 6f: 2 - 3 - 7
Silken Thomas Hcp 5f: 1 - 3 - 10
Dubai etc 2yo Mdn 6f: 1 - 3 - 2 (Petronius Maximus was drawn 4)
Sapphire Stakes 5f: 1 - 4 - 2
Railway Stakes 6f: 1 - 6 - 4 (However, the winner did leave the rail to come around horses)
Nat Lottery Race 6f+: 1 - 3 - 18

Results from the start of the season up to last weekend seem to show that the bias has been getting more pronounced as the ground gets faster. I'd say that watering is the cause:

21 March Soft Maiden 6f: 15 - 5 - 11
21 March Soft 2yo Mdn 5f: 12 - 3 - 8
21 March Soft Handicap 6f: 5 - 3 - 4
11 April Heavy 2yo Mdn 5f: 7 - 1 - 4
11 April Heavy Handicap 6f: 16 - 9 - 15
3 May Yielding 2yo Mdn 6f: 7 - 11 - 4
23 May G/F 2yo Mdn 6f: 1 - 3 - 7
23 May G/F Handicap 6f: 12 - 14 - 4
23 May G/F Gr 3 6f: 3 - 1 - 2
24 May G/F Listed 2yo 5f: 4 - 2 - 6
 
Grey said:
The races run on the stands side over the weekend showed a very strong, even ridiculous, draw bias. The horses reaching the frame came from the following stalls:

Ballygallon Stud Stakes 6f: 2 - 3 - 7
Silken Thomas Hcp 5f: 1 - 3 - 10
Dubai etc 2yo Mdn 6f: 1 - 3 - 2 (Petronius Maximus was drawn 4)
Sapphire Stakes 5f: 1 - 4 - 2
Railway Stakes 6f: 1 - 6 - 4 (However, the winner did leave the rail to come around horses)
Nat Lottery Race 6f+: 1 - 3 - 18

Results from the start of the season up to last weekend seem to show that the bias has been getting more pronounced as the ground gets faster. I'd say that watering is the cause:

21 March Soft Maiden 6f: 15 - 5 - 11
21 March Soft 2yo Mdn 5f: 12 - 3 - 8
21 March Soft Handicap 6f: 5 - 3 - 4
11 April Heavy 2yo Mdn 5f: 7 - 1 - 4
11 April Heavy Handicap 6f: 16 - 9 - 15
3 May Yielding 2yo Mdn 6f: 7 - 11 - 4
23 May G/F 2yo Mdn 6f: 1 - 3 - 7
23 May G/F Handicap 6f: 12 - 14 - 4
23 May G/F Gr 3 6f: 3 - 1 - 2
24 May G/F Listed 2yo 5f: 4 - 2 - 6
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trying to water out a bias?

no - I can't see that happening - I was told last year that no clerk would do that by those on here that know clerks in person..so it can't be happening :)
 
Tracey Collins mentioned before her Arctic ran that the strip right on the stands rail was like a road and she had told Shanahan to sit three or four off the rail to get nicer ground. Obviously it would be a bit slower but if you have a fast ground horse, you want to be on that rail. Maybe the watering cans don't rach that far. Interestingly, in the national lottery sprint, I was on hitchens and Spencer changed his mind a few times when they split. He started on the stand side group but in the centre of the track, then headed for the far side and then came back again. A few other jocks were thinking similarly so not sure they knew exactly where they wanted to be. Some mad a dash for the far side.
 
Hamm said:
Interesting article in that vein Grey in the Post today by Donn Maclean.

I agree with what you say, but what is maybe confusing things is generally speaking, really good horses have won the Irish Derby in the past 10 years - Galileo, Sinndar, High Chaparal, Dylan T, Hurricane Run, Alamshar, Fame and Glory - but those in behind haven't generally been up to much.

Is the pattern commitee European? If so, I don't see how they allowed the GP de Paris/Jockey Club distance switches as this was always going to affect the Irish Derby, and also the King George.
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http://donnmcclean.com/2010/06/22/irish-derby/
 
Interesting article Grey - always thought Donn McClean spoke a lot of sense it's just a shame we seldom get to hear from him in the UK outside of Cheltenham and the odd big day in Ireland.
 
Grey said:
I'm suggesting that it's the watering that's creating the bias.
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thats happened at most tracks for a long time

Newbury is a classic example where there is a strip standside thats faster after watering

i'd have a look on betfair forum at the Clerkwatch thread

watering is fookin the whole game up

people will wake up to it..problem is plenty on this forum don't believe biases exist like this...in fact get hot under the collar about it being suggested :)
 
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What do we make of Paddy Power's Anglesey prices?

5/4 Glor Na Mara
7/4 Samuel Morse
5 Dunboyne Express
7 Rudolph Valentino

I'd be inclined to take the 5's personally.
 
The 5's looks decent to me DJ - only niggling thought is how poorly Longhunter ran from the same stable against Samuel Morse on Irish Derby weekend.

Be interesting to see if there's any money for Dunboyne Express in the morning - imagine if they fancy him that much they'd shovel the money on.
 
Longhunter was sick. Glor Na Mara is a talking horse to beat the band. Samuel Morse is the form pick but I cant give any positive for Dunboyne because there isnt any. Token bet for me

:(

Well I suppose I had my day!
 
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