Daily picks.

SlimChance said:
Gigilo,

Bet365 have finally shut me down. I would like to take this oppurtunity to extend my gratitude for all the steamers and a lot of winners I ploughed into with the Stoke firm on your advice. It was fun while it lasted.
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I would doubt i have many left to bet with now after temple road,my brother opened another 10 altogether with different firms a week yesterday but 7 of them we backed temple road.And they were big ew bets something i havn't done for a long while,plus the fcasts on top the trouble is i have a very standout sir name which is why i have never asked him to do it before.It's almost certain they will make the connection,going to be a long winter for me.
 
final drive

Another kirby butler horse that was given a very quiet ride at wolves today,played up before the start but appeared to be full of running and no attempt by kirby to put it in the race.Was a bit surprised he didn't get pulled in for this,as he sat in behind them and when the horse went to go left he pulled it back in behind again and made sure it couldn't run on.They don't get much more blatant than that,horse is now off 72 already this season has run reasonable races when 3rd to postion off 80 back in august and a 4th to fogive off the same mark.Has now not won since december 2010,infact has been last on numerous occasions,the horse has obviously regressed was rated 101 in 2011 so there is no way it hasn't been trying since that mark as obvioulsy had ability to win decent races.But looking at this seasons for is still capable of running to the 80 mark and will be worth looking at entries in future
 
Will do a little preview of lingfield,prices long gone on some i did back earlier nothing that stands out hopefully something wednesday!


11.50

Right stuff 9yr old now was a decent aw horse and sits on a mark of 93 still on the aw,been running abysmally over the sticks and when last seen on the turf.One positive is that he was in the track record run of thimaar back in aspril over 2mile at kempton,the betting will be very interesting in this race has to run over a stone below his rating at least.He should be way odds on,strange to see a horse of his class in the claimer wiil be interesting to see how much ability he retains.


12.20.

A truely awful race and the only one you could back would be summer sun,she has very poor form placed at the lowest level.The others look even worse,i would imagine leonna mayor who you wouldn't want to see in a driving finish will pop her out and try and make all.If she doesn't then i wouldn't be surprised it she got beat!!

12.50

Three horses in this race all have formlines that tie in through a few horses such as persian marvel and modern lady,those formlines taken strictly leave little between prince of prophets,katy spirit and frans hal.Looked a fair race to bet in with those formlines but they are drawn 8,9,11 so they've all got tobeat the draw.I can't see any other formlines in there,but most of the runners have only had 4/5 runs.

1.20

I mentioned the form of lucky mark a few times last week,efistorm and hoover have come out and won out of that race,the time was very good 1m22.94.I put up shaunas spirit that day as she looked a klittle unlucky behind muhandis on previous run but lucky mark looked to have a couple of pound in hand on that run at lingfield.She was 1 1/2ls behind and has a 3 pound pull,plus lucky marks drawn further out tomorrow as well,i think there's another race definitely to be won with shaunas spirit if ridden more positively.Those two would be mine against the field,although will be interesting to see if lucky mark can repeat that run,as previous form was totally inconsistent.

1.50

I couldn't really pick anything in the 5f race,they all look pretty exposed speightons kid would be my token pick probably wouldv'e looked a bet to nothing as the fifth to sokno looks decent form.Recent winners drawnfromthepast and bubbly ballerina have won from that race time was quicker than the second div but would make speighto=ns still look fairly well handicdappedHe's drawn out in the 9 draw though so thats a big negative.Welease bwian looks the only other i can see decent third last time out at kempton,had roys legacy behind and recent winner efistorm plus parisian pyramid rect runner up.My two against the field.

2.20

Fairywinds got the best form,but needs this race to be run at a decent pace,not guasranteed a few 7f horses vcould go out and make this a flase pace.Chrissycross has won over this c/d by 3ls i can't see him sitting off the two 7f horses so they might go overly quick and that may give the asdvantage to fairyinthewind.Chevise maybe the danger,although hass run third off 78 over c/d that was in a slow time.

2.50

Speak the truth was the value at 14/1,6/1 now 4th to fortrose academy off 63 tomorrow off 62 lowest winning mark since winning off 62 jan when ridden by tomorrows jock natahan allison.That kempton race had recent winners roys legacy behind and efistorm plus recent runner up parisian pyramid fav in this race tomorrow.Parisian pyramid would be the other pick,yhe second div .10 quicker than gagrials gift winning the first div last week both very short now but would be my two against the field
 
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I don't really post on forums these days, but Colin pointed out this thread to me, and I've been taking a look now and again over the last couple of weeks. I thought it rude not to offer some sort of contribution.

I agree with a lot of what Gigilo has said, though sometimes for slightly different reasons.

LING 3:20 BUTTON MOON 12/1 / OPUS DEI 12/1 - 2 x CSF's both at 157.54
LASTKINGOFSCOTLAND has a near impossible draw, but could spoil things. FORTROSE ACADEMY has to be respected, but may have a preference for Kempton. There are others that could spoil things (CATALINAS DIAMOND and STEPTURN). However, Button Moon ran a good race LTO just in behind PARISIAN PYRAMID after setting a strong pace (the front two weren't pulling away), so it's form looks quite solid, and could dictate things today. OPUS DEI would seem to prefer Southwell, but has run well at Wolves last year over 6F, once when racing wide, and I like the fact that Winston rides today. Both have arguably the best draws. Obviously this isn't a bet to go crazy with, but at 157.54 EP for the CSF (either way), I really believe it represents some terrific value. If Opus Dei can get away OK this time (also note the pieces are back on), then that could well be the one to collar Button Moon inside the last, rather than Lastkingofscotland or Fortrose Academy.

POSSIBLE

12:50 PRINCE OF PROPHETS 7/4
Looks a standout bet at first, but stall 11 is near impossible in 12 runner HCP's. 0-53 in last 5 years, and 1-69 in last 6 years. I don't think it can all be put down to a statistical blip. However, with 11 runners, stall 10 has statistically done OK, though not so much in recent times, where middle numbers have been favoured. If theres a NR I'll consider a bet on it, but not if there remains 12 runners. Even then though, does 7/4 really represent any value?

OTHERS

LING 1:20 LUCKY MARK 4/1 (SHAUNAS SPIRIT now a NR)
There are enough dangers in the field, that the 4/1 doesn't look very attractive, but if forced to pick one, that would be it. I guess it offers a little value, but nothing to write home about.

LING 1:50 WELEASE BWIAN 2/1
It's too tight, but I've noted this one. MOTHER JONES is likely to make a race of it, and others could figures also. Too much depends on the break in these races.

LING 2:20 FAIRYINTHEWIND 6/4
Dropping back to 1M is of concern as it seems to have made it's improvement as it's been given more of a stamina test. Has won well over 1M last year, but the doubt more than offsets the skinny odds.

LING 2:50 PARISIAN PYRAMID 11/4
Looks ready to strike. Has even been dropped 1lb since LTO, and looks well in here. I'm not going to bother with this one, despite it looking sure to run a big race. Hoover just got the better of it LTO, and Jim Boyle will know exactly what he has to beat, and is represented here with SPEAK THE TRUTH. Duke Of Aricabeau is another that is weighted to go very close, though that one has a poor draw. It wouldn't surprise me to see SPEAK THE TRUTH and PARISIAN PYRAMID battle it out, but it's a forecast that at the prices I won't bother with. I thought about Speak The Truth being an EW bet to nothing. Then considered using PARISIAN PYRAMID in some EW double, maybe with PRINCE OF PROPHETS if theres a NR in that race. I'll have to sit it out though, as I'm starting to scramble around looking for an angle for the sake of it.

Fingers crossed for a driving finish in the last between Sanders and Winston. :)
 
gigilo said:
Will do a little preview of lingfield,prices long gone on some i did back earlier nothing that stands out hopefully something wednesday!


11.50

Right stuff 9yr old now was a decent aw horse and sits on a mark of 93 still on the aw,been running abysmally over the sticks and when last seen on the turf.One positive is that he was in the track record run of thimaar back in aspril over 2mile at kempton,the betting will be very interesting in this race has to run over a stone below his rating at least.He should be way odds on,strange to see a horse of his class in the claimer wiil be interesting to see how much ability he retains.


12.20.

A truely awful race and the only one you could back would be summer sun,she has very poor form placed at the lowest level.The others look even worse,i would imagine leonna mayor who you wouldn't want to see in a driving finish will pop her out and try and make all.If she doesn't then i wouldn't be surprised it she got beat!!

12.50

Three horses in this race all have formlines that tie in through a few horses such as persian marvel and modern lady,those formlines taken strictly leave little between prince of prophets,katy spirit and frans hal.Looked a fair race to bet in with those formlines but they are drawn 8,9,11 so they've all got tobeat the draw.I can't see any other formlines in there,but most of the runners have only had 4/5 runs.

KABOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMM 16/1` :lol: Had a smll bet left the fav out how it was 7/4 is beyond me they had the same form incredible!!!

1.20

I mentioned the form of lucky mark a few times last week,efistorm and hoover have come out and won out of that race,the time was very good 1m22.94.I put up shaunas spirit that day as she looked a klittle unlucky behind muhandis on previous run but lucky mark looked to have a couple of pound in hand on that run at lingfield.She was 1 1/2ls behind and has a 3 pound pull,plus lucky marks drawn further out tomorrow as well,i think there's another race definitely to be won with shaunas spirit if ridden more positively.Those two would be mine against the field,although will be interesting to see if lucky mark can repeat that run,as previous form was totally inconsistent.

1.50

I couldn't really pick anything in the 5f race,they all look pretty exposed speightons kid would be my token pick probably wouldv'e looked a bet to nothing as the fifth to sokno looks decent form.Recent winners drawnfromthepast and bubbly ballerina have won from that race time was quicker than the second div but would make speighto=ns still look fairly well handicdappedHe's drawn out in the 9 draw though so thats a big negative.Welease bwian looks the only other i can see decent third last time out at kempton,had roys legacy behind and recent winner efistorm plus parisian pyramid rect runner up.My two against the field.

2.20

Fairywinds got the best form,but needs this race to be run at a decent pace,not guasranteed a few 7f horses vcould go out and make this a flase pace.Chrissycross has won over this c/d by 3ls i can't see him sitting off the two 7f horses so they might go overly quick and that may give the asdvantage to fairyinthewind.Chevise maybe the danger,although hass run third off 78 over c/d that was in a slow time.

Chrissycross as said in qwrite up set it up perfectly!!!

2.50

Speak the truth was the value at 14/1,6/1 now 4th to fortrose academy off 63 tomorrow off 62 lowest winning mark since winning off 62 jan when ridden by tomorrows jock natahan allison.That kempton race had recent winners roys legacy behind and efistorm plus recent runner up parisian pyramid fav in this race tomorrow.Parisian pyramid would be the other pick,yhe second div .10 quicker than gagrials gift winning the first div last week both very short now but would be my two against the field
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1pt trade temple road 9/4 365!!

Out at 1.98 been backing it all morning lovely trade!!
 
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Off the to follows temple road and showed his true form on last run at kempton winning by 2ls couldv'e been 6ls,earlier in the season running 5th off 11 at lingfield from the worst draw in 1 eased and only beaten 2 1/2ls,surrounded by high 60,70 runners.Was off 57 that day and still only off 4 pound higher mark tomorrow,gets the 2 draw doesn't look a certainty but i can see this going off near odds on.The danger looks the also progressive pharoah jake if getting the 6fs,i will be surprised if winston doesn't try and win this from the front.So far the track hasn't shown any significant advantage,but all the horses that like to race prominent have run well or won,the way he travelled last time out i can't see him doing anything else he could yet be a 70 horse!
 
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speak the truth

An unlucky loser today,left and hampered from the break,having to make up 6ls eventually getting beat two heads.Has now fallen to last winning mark of 62,that win coming in jan 2012 has won 5/30 at the track and four over the 6fs when there's some pace on he's very consstent in these races at lingfield.These races are usually quite competitive but he sometimes gets underestimated in the betting and under right conditions will be winning again soon he may even win a couple.
 
speak the truth
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It was very unlucky. I'm even more cautious with these Lingfield sprinters, as there seems to be plenty with the Blue Square series in mind over Jan and Feb.

The way Speak The Truth was ridden, you could argue that connections knew he wouldn't be out again for another two months.

If Jim Boyle takes his ban, his entries this week are worth looking at, but the price on Final Delivery seems to too short, even if it is a gambling stable.
 
I put Emma's gift up last week as a possible each way chance, ran well and then went backwards for the last two furlongs. Running again today dropped to class 4 from class 2. Was only beaten ten lengths in class 1 in September and now 4 pounds lighter than last win over c and d. Also has 7 lb caliber on although that may be a negative. Also has hood left off. Each way value I think.
 
Not only have I missed the price on Temple Road, but I've suckered myself into backing two against it.

Pharoah Jake just looked too tempting @ 7.0, even if he is better over 5f and I really can't get my head around the fact that Doctor Hilary is out to 25/1 & 28/1.

Horse did ok last time out off a 6 month break, for a 50/1 shot from a wide draw.
No worrries about the mark of 52, just his age and your pick of course.
 
gigilo said:
Off the to follows temple road and showed his true form on last run at kempton winning by 2ls couldv'e been 6ls,earlier in the season running 5th off 11 at lingfield from the worst draw in 1 eased and only beaten 2 1/2ls,surrounded by high 60,70 runners.Was off 57 that day and still only off 4 pound higher mark tomorrow,gets the 2 draw doesn't look a certainty but i can see this going off near odds on.The danger looks the also progressive pharoah jake if getting the 6fs,i will be surprised if winston doesn't try and win this from the front.So far the track hasn't shown any significant advantage,but all the horses that like to race prominent have run well or won,the way he travelled last time out i can't see him doing anything else he could yet be a 70 horse!
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Absolutely sluiced up 70 horse:lol::lol::lol: KABBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM WWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSSHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!;)
 
Doesn't matter when they should be 1/5!!;)NIce to put it up 2 months in advance after its lingfield run,i was backing it all morning at all prices to trade off and leave myself some big bets on.I said 70 horse could be even better,exactly how it lookede on the turf at lingfield was a massive eyecatcher and looked non trir to me,thenm drifted at yarmouth in a crap race...............:ninja:
 
Nobody remembered Reggie then! Hope one or two of you did especially as he beat giggsys nap easily.

Reginald Claude- M Usher-6/7fs

This horse absolutely hacked up at Wolverhampton in a class 6 ridden by Rachel Kneller and i expected it to follow up on friday night but the amateur rider status of the race was the concern and i'm afraid the inexperienced lady on board had a very poor run around so i'll ignore that run for the future.
This horse was backed into 4/1 from a huge price on Betfair and was obviously fully expected to win that race and i don't think a 6lb higher mark should have btn it. As a 2 yo beat Krypton Factor,(which had won previous race) rec 9lb by a hd at Nottm 6fs with 8 lengths to the 3rd. That horse has hardly been btn since and runs in Maydan now in the 120s!
Not suggesting Reginald is anywhere near that but has run 2 decent 2nds at Kempton from 70 since, would expect this horse to be well capeable of winning from marks in the 60s and look forward to Rachel Kneller being back on board over 7fs nto.

1st time Rachel back on board since on this tricky horse.
 
Would have put him back up last night but was only 3/1, had waltzed all over Macks Sister(won again since) and Temple road when won at Wolver, does look a bridle horse though.
 
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