Daily picks.

gigilo said:
teds brother

Falsely run race tonight and will again be great value on the poly or when returned to the turf of only a mark of 63,previous run was almost 2 seconds quicker than tonights race.He will be overlooked after that run and will be priced accordingly,a nice for to follows on aw surfaces or when back on the turf early season.
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KABBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM In goes teds treble for the season off a pound lower mark than when put up!!!!:lol::lol::cool:
 
Good win on Ted,

Do u have any advice on making my betting profitable, I work off the same times as u but not even remotely as successful but I would be grateful if you could put me on my way on to looking for decent races to take wih me, some key indicators behind what makes a good time and whets an underrated bit of form etc

Thanks
 
The question is far to complicated to answer as form reading is how well someone interprets it and then knows what a decent price is unless you can think of something specific.All the consistent value is hidden in everyday lower grade handicaps say 60-80 rated horses without any ? and even lower grade on the aw.I very rarely look at the bigger meetings or higher quality racing as I know its just wasting time when there's far better opportunities elsewhere probably 90% of the time.
If I didn't have any pictures or any times to refer to my profits would be less but I know a high% of my winners come purely from looking at the formbook and collateral form.Picking winners can be done from just spending hours in the formbook but to be good at it i'd say you'd need to be doing 12-18 hour days as I still do everyday till you know every horse in those grade races.I think at the end of the day it's inclination and will to win plus some sort of natural aptitude,it's twice as hard as working plus it probably takes several years to really get it right most punters simply can't be bothered.And most people have got far more important things to do it's a single mans profession unless you've got an understanding partner.:<3:
 
Mysterious wonder

Mysterious wonder on last three runs has looked like wanting an extra furlong and with no assistance from the saddle eva moscrop riding been a bit of an eyecatcher.Although I wouldn't go overboard he was nearest finish today and with step up in trip off a mark of only 55 hopefully overpriced and worth a couple of chances with just the 8 lifetime runs.

Sand reflection

There were a few eyecatchers from the godolphin horses amongsr their winners including groundbreaking and wadi al hattawi but will just stick with this one as they probably won't be any value.Sand reflections debbut run at Newmarket over 7fs running only .26 slower than bluegrass blues winning the 3yr old handicap off 83 but in doing so hacking up.The ease of the win and time will surely be one of the best 2yr olds over this trip and further she looks top class.


Hawkeyethenoo

Whether hawkeyethenoo is flattering to deceive at the end of the races it may well be the case only time he was travelling was at the end of the race nearest finish.He's run quite a few races like this in the last few seasons and perhaps just not well handicapped enough but i'm not entirely convinced the pace was that great on the farside today.He maybe worth chancing as the autumn approaches two decent runs on soft ground last season a second to maarek and a 4th to society rock this season look good enough to win and may start getting overpriced.


Rebel code

Was in a very poor looking race tonight at lingfield so this is speculative as the form of this race was very poor but don't think graham lee was to interested in getting involved once he knew the horse couldn't win.He has a very nice dirt pedigree and could be one at huge prices to keep an eye out from a stable that has few 2yr old winners but paid decent amount for this one.
 
Just my view Gigs, but Hawkeyethenoo is getting a bit long in the tooth now, and needs help from the ground to slow the others down a bit (though he doesn't act on proper soft/hvy).
Still a very capable horse (would have won at York earlier this year with a clear run), he looks bound to come across his ground somewhere this season.
 
Swendab

Put this on here months ago as its aw fiorm was giving it a string of 0's,but hasn't been getting overpriced on the turf and been running poorly anyway.Last time out looked a massive eyecatcher to me drawn stands side over 7fs on gd/sft ground,trying to make all over a trip he doesn't stay on ground he hasn't won on.He drifted right across to the far rail must've conceded 5/6ls eventually being beaten 4 1/2;s eased,if he'd stayed straight would've been involved at the finish had everything at it a furlong out.He's now fallen to a mark of 64 lowest since winning in july 2011 off 65 and over the Chepstow track at 5fs which he seems to have a preference for.Looks to me as though he's just come into form on that run an and with plenty of decent ground around nows the time to strat following,the last time he dropped to these marks he won three on the bounce.


KABBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBOOOOOOOOOMMMM
Shouldv'e been 3 on the bounce as well!!!!!:lol:
 
ulleyseys46 said:
did you get your money back from the last 3 times finished 2nd ? little bit of profit for you there. :)
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I'd love to see you post on the forum connections thread...there would soon be something done about your snidey comments...go and have a go at the owners..lets see how many on here would put up with it then
 
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ulleyseys46 said:
did you get your money back from the last 3 times finished 2nd ? little bit of profit for you there. :)
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Been a real poor last ten days 13 winners and over +50 points profit on the to follows and probably approaching the+300 mark since I started putting them up,not including all the previous winning bets since october which is another 3/400 points.Take them tipsters about 10 years to get returns like that.:lol::lol:;)
 
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last 10 days for my published notebooks. all recent notebooks apart from debdebdeb, 3 wins in total for that horse.

debdebdeb 11/4 2wins

flora medici 22/1 1win

nurpur 3/1 2wins

lunnette 1/1 1 win

broughton 8/1 2 wins

moviesta 5/1 1 win

maundy money 5/1 1 win

corton lad 14/1 1 win

brown sugar 8/1 2wins

all sp's those prices
 
Ignore him Gigglo,

Thanks for your reply last night, I guess it is a single mans game but I am single and raring to go in an attempt to clear my over draft.

Have you considered recruiting people to help you? I have trouble puttin my trust in other people to make racing profitable as I've always considerd my opinion n methods good enough that I tend to ignore other people's selections

Ur the first person that has ever made me question myself, I can happily put my guard down and easily just back your selections, over the course of 2 years u've never dropped momentum and clearly taking the bookmakers for a ride.

I look ahead in future now to makin money
 
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reet hard said:
Just my view Gigs, but Hawkeyethenoo is getting a bit long in the tooth now, and needs help from the ground to slow the others down a bit (though he doesn't act on proper soft/hvy).
Still a very capable horse (would have won at York earlier this year with a clear run), he looks bound to come across his ground somewhere this season.
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The more I watch the race the more impressed I am with the run was clearly the second best in the race never even realized got stopped in run several times makes me even more confident it will be winning.I'm not even that concerned about the ground although softer may help.
 
Fratellino


Rarely wins on the turf but has in previous seasions been very consistent so mark always stays around the 90 mark having to run in the most competitive handicaps.Has shown nothing this season and finally slipped a few pounds down to 86,saturday ran at Newmarket over 6fs trip to far plus ground was on the slow side.Led the race but was beat well over a furlong out slight encouragement as even though hampered,on previous runs you would've expected to drop out completely but even though eased as well still lost no ground.Reminded me of swendabs race over 7fs before he won and can be a sign of horse coming back to form,back over 5fs on gd/fm ground at probably York or ascot may just pop up at a decent price.I wouldn't normally have this to follows but off this mark and guaranteed some big prices now worth a couple of chances.
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by gigilo View Post

Wouldn't have much confidence in amenable till it gets soft ground,the run at catterick was different class that's what I was waiting to see.Did you do the two I sent youyesterday and the fcast!!

May as well put this up but from slightly different angle stew as i've never quite understood the running of it on poly when all its best form is at swell and on soft/heavy ground.Now dropped to 68 has won at swell off 77 and looks like another violet jordan horse running in wrong conditions just to get mark down,actually beat horseradish in september 2009 on that surface.The end of this month will be interesting when swell re opens


KABBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBOOOOO OOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM Lovely drift for a change!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Only been waoting 9 months for the right conditions!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Win number 2 I wonder how much higher this will get!!!:lol::lol:;) KABBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBOOOOOMMMMMMMM!!!!
 
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gigilo said:
Fire fighting

Progressive in last two runs first two runs didn't show a great deal tonight winning by 5ls making all to run the same time as 80 rated ortac rock in the claimer on the card.The handicap would be more useful timewise running .51 slower than magic city 85 carrying 9 pound less,i'd be keeping an eye on his mark more for nurseries than anything better at this stage.

Toubougg Happy

Another easy 2yr old winner similar to fire fighting running .30 quicker than cape of hope in the handicap winner off 70 equally looking well handicapped so a decent marker for the 2yr old.Still open to loads of improvement I wouldn't be backing in liosted races but if aimed a little lower might be interesting maybe even nurseries depending on mark.


Honeymoon Express

Put this up on Tuesday with blessing box had finished runner up to gasbag on previous run,gasbah hacking up today at liecester looking way ahead of mark.I liked the time of her race that day at Yarmouth and if the race had been a furlong further on Tuesday she looked like she would've won finishing twice as quick as the front two and although nothing special the mark of 65 puts her in the right grade to pick up at least a race.That was her seasonal debut though and the 5fs beat her so she could be even slightly better than first appears.


Niceonemyson,sir Geoffrey,emily hall


Very weak form from Tuesday again aslthough the time nicenemyson prodeuced on the Saturday at Beverley appeared to be good only .44 slower than ziggy lee winning off 82 but NOMS carrying a pound more.The times worked out he won and although he only won by nk looked to be keeping a bit back for himself.He maybe up to winning again in this grade I can see a little improvement.The second r Geoffrey franked the form had won on previous run and last season was rated as high as 74 so a few reasons to think this maybe better than first appears.These two dominated from the front and the one to finish best of all was Emily hall nearest finish she's still only had 11 races and only rated 47.This second div was .46 quicker than choc a mocas win which makes more interesting reading winning off 60 and the fact there was another 3 3/4ls back to the 4th in the second div this form might get slightly underestimated.
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Are you backing Sir Geoffrey today Andy?
 
Was tempting with lee riding I like him on these rogues seems to win on them when no one else can but its never won on a turning track on soft ground so left it,would have a great chance if it does act on the track though.
 
solar spirit

Bit of an eyecatcher solar spirit trapped in a pocket at a crucial time when looked to be cantering,impossible to win when switched at catterick ended up 4th beaten 2 1/2ls.Solar spirits got to come down the weights now hopefully a drop of 2 pound and that would allow him a nice drop in grade as the races he's been competing in have been very competitive.That would allow him onto his lowest mark since winning off 74 april 2012,looking at his profile in recent time his best runs have been on softer ground as opposed to fast ground so that run may have been even better than it first looked.


NKABBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBBOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM WHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHOOOOOOSSSSSHHHHHHHH!!!!Took 14s last night then took 25s Looked a 6/1 shot!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:;););)
 
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gigilo said:
Yet another two hannon horses that were eye catchers and look huge improvers worth bearing in mind when looking at the big race entries as there's no way hughes will get these right so many of comparative ability.

edge


Was miles off the pace at chester till the last 1/2 furlong and was nearest finish,in all probability at least a 6f or 7f may suit best.The winning time of this race only .66 slower than dutch masterpiece winning off 89 later on the card,another hannon runner that could be overpriced with multiple entries.

brown sugar

Another hannon runner 6/7ls off the pace,finishing under hands and heels giving the impression he was easily the best horse in the race with loads of improvement to come.As mentioned on other previous runners this one was 40/1 outsider of his three,again showing there isn't much between the majority of his runners and also showing there is value there with all the multiple entries he will have.The time of the race was respectable as well only 1.1 seconds slower than nocturne winning off 94 in later handicap and with loads of improvement to come will leave hughes scratching his head on the big races yet again.


solar spirit

Bit of an eyecatcher solar spirit trapped in a pocket at a crucial time when looked to be cantering,impossible to win when switched at catterick ended up 4th beaten 2 1/2ls.Solar spirits got to come down the weights now hopefully a drop of 2 pound and that would allow him a nice drop in grade as the races he's been competing in have been very competitive.That would allow him onto his lowest mark since winning off 74 april 2012,looking at his profile in recent time his best runs have been on softer ground as opposed to fast ground so that run may have been even better than it first looked
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2 races and BANG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:lol::lol::lol::lol:These layers are nuts!!:lol::lol:;)
 
gigilo said:
Fitz flyer

Exposed now and handicappers been unrelenting even though only won 1/38 has now just been dropped a couple of pound enabling him to run in races for horses rated just up to 85.He looked a little unlucky yesterday travelling really well but never getting much of a run in this grade he should be winning as these races will be by far the weakest ever contested.Not even sure Beverley suited all his best form has been on straight tracks even this season 4th to magical macey at newcastel and a 4th to ancient cross at York,loads of good form last season 4th to singeur off 90,3rds to kingsgate choice and tax free last season as well at York and ascot off 89 and 90.Could well get overpriced being on such a long losing run.


Lovesome,liberty. jack

A maiden stakes race yesterday at Leicester these two 11ls clear of the third rated 69 and the time .34 quicker than older handicapper winner askaud rated 80 earlier on the card.A few reasons these could be well handicapped both off 70,they both only have had little racing lovesome the 6 runs,liberty jack the 5 runs.The Newmarket race lovesome contested over a furlong further is working out well mushaakis has come out of lovesomes Newmarket run and run well in better grade.The 6th napindas won,11th not riggs won they both drifted over to the far rail at liecester travelling further than askaud and were also ridden by two very average jockeys in Louis steward and William twiston davis.This form may go underestimated as they could be improvers and off current marks would be very competitive in weak races.


Silverware


Remember putting up silverware last season when he won,ran today at ayr off 75 same last winning mark although had shown promise up to previous wins whereas today was coming back after a break and had been out of form.Off this mark he becomes one to watch out for has three wins on gd/fm all off a mark of 75still only has the 19 runs on turf so reasonable strike rate,going to be overpriced now especially if he can get an uncontested lead!
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Lovesome runs today 17.50 Yarmouth. Drops in grade from last run. Worth a bet?

Swendab and Leitrim Pass others from the list running today, but neither look great value. Thoughts?
 
Leaving the short prices alone and gladsome if you knew the ground was quick would look a better bet because Louis steward is hopeless.
Did you back solar spirit yesterday, think that's the best so far, best horse in the race winning at bfsp of 30:eek: can't believe it doubled in price,was almost guaranteed to win whether it had been yesterday or next run off that mark!!
 
Missed that one sadly, kicking myself. It's virtually impossible to stay on top of these horses, work 55 hours a week and be married. My punting is suffering!
 
gigilo said:
Swendab

Put this on here months ago as its aw fiorm was giving it a string of 0's,but hasn't been getting overpriced on the turf and been running poorly anyway.Last time out looked a massive eyecatcher to me drawn stands side over 7fs on gd/sft ground,trying to make all over a trip he doesn't stay on ground he hasn't won on.He drifted right across to the far rail must've conceded 5/6ls eventually being beaten 4 1/2;s eased,if he'd stayed straight would've been involved at the finish had everything at it a furlong out.He's now fallen to a mark of 64 lowest since winning in july 2011 off 65 and over the Chepstow track at 5fs which he seems to have a preference for.Looks to me as though he's just come into form on that run an and with plenty of decent ground around nows the time to strat following,the last time he dropped to these marks he won three on the bounce.

And in goes his treble:ninja: off all time high mark pity hadn't been watching the card every winner on the straight track made all so suited front runners the ground was really quick and jonnie skull and swendab both won off all time
high marks.A huge advantage tonight on the track that's usually overwatered.
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14:50 Yarmouth, 25 Jul 20136f 3y
Book Family Funday Sunday 25th August Maiden Fillies' Stakes (Class 5) (3YO to 4YO)
Winner £2,588 - 6 ran
Good to Firm


Archive Video
Weighed In

Result Future Form Pos Dist. Silk Cloth / Horse Name (Draw) SP Age / Wt Jockey / Trainer OR
1 Grey, pink cross belts 3. Dodina (IRE) (7)ATR Tracker 11/4 2Fav 3 9 - 0 J P Spencer
P W Chapple-Hyam
-
held up in touch, headway over 2f out, soon led, kept on strongly inside final furlong
2 2¾ Royal blue 8. Teeline (IRE) (8)ATR Tracker 4/1 3 9 - 0 Ahmed Ajtebi
S bin Suroor
-
dwelt, held up towards rear, ridden and headway over 1f out, chased winner final furlong, kept on and always held
3 12 Black, yellow cap 6. Nur Jahan (IRE) (2)ATR Tracker 4/6 Fav 3 9 - 0h T E Durcan
D R Lanigan
-
slowly into stride, in rear, smooth headway over 2f out, ridden over 1f out, faded entering final furlong, soon eased
4 8 Emerald green, yellow stars, emerald green sleeves, red armlets, white cap 4. Grey Poppett (1)ATR Tracker 150/1 3 9 - 0h1 Saleem Golam
C A Dwyer
20
tracked leaders in 3rd, pushed along over 2f out, ridden and weakened over 1f out
5 hd Emerald green, yellow stars, emerald green sleeves, red armlets, emerald green cap, yellow star 1. L'ile Rousse (5)ATR Tracker 150/1 4 9 - 2v1 R Clark (3)
C A Dwyer
-
led, ridden and headed over 2f out, soon weakened
6 26 Maroon, light blue stars, striped sleeves and star on cap 7. Raymond's Dream (3)ATR Tracker 66/1 3 8 - 9 Danny Brock (5)
J R Jenkins
-
with leader, pushed along over 2f out, soon weakened
Emerald green, white stripe, white and red halved sleeves, red cap 2. Lady Cricketer (6)ATR Tracker Non Runner -

Yellow, white hoop and armlets, white and yellow check cap 5. Joyous (4)ATR Tracker Non Runner -


Off Time:14:52:19
Winning Time:1m 13.75s


Dodina


Seemed to win this maiden with more to come some interesting time comparisons on the card .24 quicker than shafaani winning the handicap later on the card off 83 carrying 9-6 and 1.23 seconds quicker than miakora rated 46 carrying 8-11.She was given a mark of 70 for aw debut yesterday at Kempton looked pretty one paced in a slow time at Kempton,she may get overopriced after that run the Yarmouth form suggests she could be an 80+ horse.She must be worth giving another chance or two after only 4 lifetime runs back on the turf.
 
Top work again gigs.

I wanted to ask whether u believe certain speed ratings only work at select tracks, it might mean finding a good time but then waiting 5 runs untill it runs on a significant track?

I kno ascot and Kempton speed ratings are the ultimate gold mine going.
 
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