Daily picks.

Dream walker may have his ideal conditions tomorrow,winning on heavy ground by 6ls at yarmouth couldv'e been 8/9ls eased in the last 1/2 furlong,the time compared nicely to interakt the older handicpper on the card winning off 72 in a time only .19 quicker.That race suggested he could be rated somewhere in the region of mid 60s plus with the older horses but probably nearer 70.Tomorrow he recieves 9 pound off 65 rated emeralds sprit,looks the danger but still open to improvement dream walker i could see this going off very short the negative maybe the track as not every horse runs to form there,but should be a decent trade and could well win this very poor race!!!
 
Again this looks very overpriced in a poor race tallulah mais only had 8 lifetime runs on turf and still open to slight improvement off a mark of only 54,last time out running 5th to handles for forks over 1m6fs looked the winner for the majority of the race but was just slightly outpaced.That was no disgrace the first three rated 68 she was a nk behind lady bluesky runner up on monday off 61,she was still staying on in that donny race and actually going away from the rest of the field even though slightly outpaced by the higher rated horses.Kingaroo a further 8ls behind has since come out and won and the oil magnate won on sunday off 68 2ls infront of him in that donny race.He looks like he should be the 7/2 4/1 mark to me as there are ? over quite a few of the more fancied runners on the ground,looks another decent trade at worst!!
 
This looks a very weak race for the grade with lots of horses with no consistent profiles so looking at the bigger priced ones interesting doyle steps up to take the ride on if i were a boy,would not have the class of some of these on turf form but over the c/d here looks a better horse.She drops to her lowest ever mark down to 67,the twice she's run over the c/d she's been second off 70 ,she's won twice and doyle was on one of those wins.The times of those two c/d runs were also respectable and going through c/d times in the race nothing really has done anything on the clock an improved run at windsor last week when running on 5th in same grade as this shows she's just hit form and i don't think the 20/1 will go unbacked.Think she's one to look out for even if no show tomorrow especially over this c/d.

Out at 18.0
 
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Phonics best run is here over the c/d still lightly raced only the 12 runs but yet to win a race,looks a far better horse on the aw running 5ls 5th to spice fair in c/d track record time since been beaten by thimaar he was the lowest rated horse in that race everything else rated low 70s to 83.Ahern rode in that race,has since been beaten over shorter distances and run here over the c/d in a very slowly run race with inexperienced jock.Hopefully will be allowed to sit off the pace been more prominent in last few runs maybe dependent on a decent pace but if he repeats that earlier run off a pound lower tomorrow will not go off 9/2 in this.I would imagine the betting will speak volumes in this race,i expect it to be backed with ahern on top,again a good trade at worst!
 
The confessor is a decent handicapper at his best especially on soft ground,won 2/7 over 7fs but 3/2/3/3 off marks of 87 twice and 90 twice those runs in ultra competitive races drops back to 88 today and the ground has come for him.The danger is on my to follows born to surprise and could easily be the best horse in the race but need to prove himself on soft ground.I think his mark of 90 is generous and will be winning better races than this so for today done the confessor,chucked in a reverse fcast if they come 1,2!
 
Have done all the horses i put on here last time out,will try and find write ups later if i have time.
AHERN 6/1
WAKING WARRIOR 9/1
NABUCCO 6/1.

Also dutch rose 7/4 ppower/victor reverse fcast with last supper could well go off odds on!!
 
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A fifth to palace moon on seasonal debut after 10 months off only beaten 5ls behind 90 and 100+ horses,directly behind was naabegha has since won off 87 by 3ls at sailsbury.Those formlines fit in well with most of this field would be near the head of the market if that runs reproduced can't see him going off the current price of 20/1 and could well be a gamble in an impossible looking handicap.My three from the field would be edge closer,pearl blue i think over 5fs on soft ground could run off slightly higher mark and long waited the other lightly raced 4yr old!!
 
Waking warrior has had 14 attempts on the turf but no success has run on the aw twice been 1/2,has run perfectly respectable on turf 7th to ajjaad at leicester last sesson off 84 only beaten 4ls and five of those runs the 6fs looking to far.Went off 7/2 fav at swell when third to six wives in march in a decent quality aw race.First run over 5fs this season on turf 6th of 17 at thirsk that form looks very good in the contexdt of this race,the first three drawn 16,18,14 in fourth was broze beau recently touched off 80 at haydock.Fifth was rasaman won a decent quality race at donny off 77 6th was waking warrior and just behind waking warrior was dispol grand went onto win off 67 by 3ls.Waking warrior runs off 4 pound lower mark tomorrow and although wouldn't be confident of winning,probably has the best form!!
 
Nabucco made his debut run behind bishop rocco looks decent,stopped in run shouldv'e been second the time was 2m11.88 a second and a half quicker than the handicap won by expense claim winning off 87 and the maiden won by valiant won again since.He then ran at sandown on similar ground,that maiden also looks extremely good over 2 seconds quicker than the older handicap won by choral festival rated 68/now rated 76 and carrying 8 pound more.Obviously a minefield for weighing up other runners form but an opening mark of 88 looks lenient,reading the above times and comparisons!
 
Strictly looking at the formlines dutch rose looks an odds on shot,beat magic destiny by 1 3/4ls giving 5 pound,magic destinys followed up since beating bella noir older horse rated 71 by 4ls getting 4 pound.Tomorrow dutch rose runs off levels with 71 rated mata hari blue,difficult to see how the older horses will improve on their ratings which they would need to.Looking at the race it would look like the danger could be last supper ,beat ursula at carlisle and is better in at the weights.I expect dutch rose to be heavily backed should be a good trade and may go evens or odds on,a reverse fcast with last supper as well.Maybev even a small win on last supper if it drifts dramatically as well.
 
There has been very little to go on most of the form on soft going and the faster going hasn't produced any times of significance.Today was the first real good time on the clock by AHERN running 59.28 outpaced and for a 2yr old on debut to come off the pace at musselburugh massive eyecatcher.
The 2.55 on the card was won buy 96 rated bajan tryst in 59.84 had to double check this the time difference .56 in favour of the 2yr olds,last season frederick engels won the same race in a time .11 quicker than last years winner burning thread.A very interesting time comparison,remembering this was aherns debut as opposed to frederick engels third.
That time at musselburugh was also backed up by bosun breese winning by 7ls and although .27 quicker bosun breese is now rated in the 90s and may yet win again.Aherns run since at ascot in the norfolk finishing 5th,lost a couple of lengths at the start and having to run slightly wide,there should be very little between him and runner up from that race galeforce ten.
The coventry didn't look a great race as there was very little solid form to go
on but looking at comparitive times frtomlast year i think it was of a similar standard.Taking cay verde as the marker would suggest the two norfolk runners have a couple of lengths to find,but there looks very little in it looking at the way cay verde hacked up in the listed race in ireland.Ahern looks the value although he still maybe only third best.
 
gigilo said:
A fifth to palace moon on seasonal debut after 10 months off only beaten 5ls behind 90 and 100+ horses,directly behind was naabegha has since won off 87 by 3ls at sailsbury.Those formlines fit in well with most of this field would be near the head of the market if that runs reproduced can't see him going off the current price of 20/1 and could well be a gamble in an impossible looking handicap.My three from the field would be edge closer,pearl blue i think over 5fs on soft ground could run off slightly higher mark and long waited the other lightly raced 4yr old!!
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Out at 13.0 and a nice couple of trades earlier,courtesy of the useless tom seagull!!:lol:
 
Rebellious guest was one of the most impressive winners last season visually when winning at windsor slaughtering compton by 3 1/4ls and having mehdi another 3/4l back in third.Those two are now rated 92,compton recent 4th to fast or free and infront of piri wango one of tomorrows runners and mehdi now off 102.Has been really disappointing and shown nothing on the three runs since,till last time out in the jersey beaten 4 3/4ls on ground that wouldv'e been fast enough staying on quite well and looking like coming back to form.Queally rides and back on his favoured ground would only have to show slight improvement to run well in this race,as it was a sign of coming back to form im sure it will not have gone unoticed and i think it will be backed.Even off a mark of 99 that would still be a good looking mark for a horse that potentially looked group class!!

Out at 12.0 a very small profit after rule 4s.
 
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Although unlikely to win on recent form the price is an insult for a horse that is well capable of running well off 74 an all time low mark,has been disappointing this season the highlight being a second to mawaakef off 80 that run would entitle him to be vying for favouritsm,all 80 and 90 runners behind.Has already finished behind april fool this season but has a 13 pound pull for 3ls april fool priced at 8/1,from a trading perspective i cannot see how this won't be backed potentially could win this on his day and the other runners don't look particularly well or showing any decent formlines.The obvious one would be the balding horse ran far quicker than viscount vert at chepstow and thats since won off 79 so could be extremely well handicapped.I will just stick with tjis at 16/1 could easily see it halving in price at least could be a massive gamble
 
Only had the one bet tomorrow and thats bonnie brae can see her going off near favourite,i've backed her at 16/1 she's currently 12/1 lads,corals,victor already looking a decent trade.
Bonnie brae loves soft ground a record of 1/2/1/2 four runs on it,is improving with age last season was rated in the 70s before finishing the season off by beating docofthebay off a mark of 90.Debut run this season looks rock solid behind global village ties in nicely with present fav jamesies formlines at ascot,i've already backed her at 16/1 but i think by tomorrow she will be fav or joint fav.If there's any improvement from her first run of the season then that would be justifiable and i still think she is worth backing at 12/1 i think she will go off 7-8/1 so still worth a bet.
 
1pt trade satsuma 14/1 lads

1pt trade rhagori aur 25/1 ppower

.05ptew satsuma

.05ptew rhagori aur ppower 4 places 1/4 odds.Could well be 33s in the morning.



Not been doing any form at present as not feeling to well the last week,just trying to pinch a few quid here and there and courtesy of the gamble on bonnie brae tomorrow has made it a very decent weekend,so had a look at the supersprint.



Will have a couple of small bets one drawn high the other low,satsuma ran in the queen mary which should not be good enough to win this race but the fact she finished 4ls infront of all on red in the race won by ahern at musselburugh suggests she has a chance.All on red today only finishing 2ls behind master of war 9th in the coventry and satsuma sits on 8-0 recieving weight off most runners and guaranteed to go on the ground,euxton hall was behind all on red today and through his epsom run in the woodcote and lines through liber and libers run against hototo there is reason to believe the 14s could well be value.



The other is rhagori aur,finished last in aherns musselburugh run but on debut clocked up a decent time again is recieving weight and looking at some of the horses to come out of the thirsk race certainly would have an ew chance if the musselburugh run was forgiven.Beating lady of the house on debut,by 2 3/4ls giving 3 pound and lady on the house had previous experience so probably 2/3ls better than that run,lady of the house went onto just be touched off by lady ibrox again that form ties in with body and soul and even allowing for no improvement she wouldn't look a back number.Another runner from that maiden at ripon dusty storm 5ls behind,went onto finish second beaten 1 1/4ls by hoyam,hoyam was runner up in the queen mary again rhagori aur ran this race on soft ground but the formlines look good and recieves weight another worth a double at a huge price if comes back to form.
 
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gigilo said:
Only had the one bet tomorrow and thats bonnie brae can see her going off near favourite,i've backed her at 16/1 she's currently 12/1 lads,corals,victor already looking a decent trade.
Bonnie brae loves soft ground a record of 1/2/1/2 four runs on it,is improving with age last season was rated in the 70s before finishing the season off by beating docofthebay off a mark of 90.Debut run this season looks rock solid behind global village ties in nicely with present fav jamesies formlines at ascot,i've already backed her at 16/1 but i think by tomorrow she will be fav or joint fav.If there's any improvement from her first run of the season then that would be justifiable and i still think she is worth backing at 12/1 i think she will go off 7-8/1 so still worth a bet.
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11/2 fav!!!!!!:lol::lol::cool:

Out at 6.8.;
 
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