Derby. Epsom (no road)

Sheikh said:
I agree , the Dante form looks better now. I still think Ballydoyle have the winner and Ruler of the World is my pick but I hope Magician doesn't turn up.
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Trading Leather got first run yesterday and was a bit unlucky to run into a top class miler.

I do wonder about Ballydoyle's pecking order sometimes. Do they really know? Dylan Thomas wasn't well touted before the Derby and how far down the order was Magician before May? Chances are he's gonna end up their best 3yo now.

With that in mind I think Mars is far more interesting for this than Battle of Marengo.
 
gus said:
Joking apart, if you take the view that Trading Leather is better suited by 10f than 8f then the Dante form doesn't look too bad now..
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Trading Leather would have been better suited by the strong pace he set than the stop/go pace of the Dante, and yeterday's form is probably as good as he is
 
I do wonder about Ballydoyle's pecking order sometimes. Do they really know? Dylan Thomas wasn't well touted before the Derby and how far down the order was Magician before May? Chances are he's gonna end up their best 3yo now.
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The simple answer to that is that they don't know as they don't really try most of them at 2. They only really put it up to them at 3. They'll know which ones are in the ballpark after the trials but really the Derby sorts them out for them as well as everyone else.

Magician is being left in the Derby.
 
I doubt they try them that hard on the gallops. The price differential between Battle of Marengo and Mars is pure guesswork.

Nice to see Leading Light winning over 12f at the Curragh. Has the same dam sire as Ocovango.
 
Al Kazeem, no fluke there, impressive.

Don't think there is much doubt about Ocovango staying ?
 
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15 still in. In racecard order: Battle Of Marengo, Chopin (supplemented), Dawn Approach, Festive Cheer, First Cornerstone, Flying The Flag, Galileo Rock, Libertarian, Magician, Mars, Mirsaale, Ocean Applause, Ocovango, Ruler Of The World & Trading Leather.
 
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Sheikh said:
Don't think there is much doubt about Ocovango staying ?
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12 furlongs will be his optimum trip.

Ocovango is well placed on a DI of 0.87. His sire Monsun is a Classic/Solid chef-de-race (chief of breed, see http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/monsun.htm) and consequently an influence for middle distance stamina. Ocovango’s dam sire Gone West is also showing prepotent influence (and is a strong candidate for the next tranche of chef-de-race sires). He looks a colt of some quality and will be difficult to keep out of the frame at this trip.
 
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Battle of Marengo now becoming a backable price. The general feeling is that Magician's presence somehow mitigates against the horse and his chance. I don't agree. Ballydoyle simply want to get DA beat and will use the same methodology as they did in Sea the Stars year. They had Fame and Glory for the race, a horse that would have won an average Derby, and yet felt the need to run Rip Van Winkle as well. They also ran Hawk Wing in High Chaparral's year.
 
SteveM said:
12 furlongs will be his optimum trip.

Ocovango is well placed on a DI of 0.87. His sire Monsun is a Classic/Solid chef-de-race (chief of breed, see http://www.chef-de-race.com/dosage/chefs-de-race/monsun.htm) and consequently an influence for middle distance stamina. Ocovango’s dam sire Gone West is also showing prepotent influence (and is a strong candidate for the next tranche of chef-de-race sires). He looks a colt of some quality and will be difficult to keep out of the frame at this trip.
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Do Monsuns need it soft?
 
Manduro's progeny shows a slight preference for cut.

I did a bit of analysis on this a few months back on data helpfully provided by Grey. The most statistically significant sire for heavy ground lovers were Jeremy, Doyen and Oratorio, for what it is worth.

Elusive Quality, Lawman and Sir Percy's progeny like to hear their teeth rattle according to my analysis.

What I did find interesting, was that Manduro and Notnowcato were the two sires with progeny that disliked extremes. This would suggest that knee deep ground or tarmac is likely to be disliked by sons and daughters of these two sires.
 
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Monsuns go on any ground

Shirocco was a soft ground horse but many top class horses by him going on good ground
 
It looks like a much better field than last year, anyway.

Should British bloodstock / racing be concerned at the dearth of top quality horses that are trained in the UK? The last two years have seen very few legitimate classic contenders.

I wouldn't mind seeing statistics showing the proportion of Group 1's won by British trained horses (globally) over the past 10 seasons or so. Even with Frankel, it feels like a decline.
 
Desert Orchid said:
Do Monsuns need it soft?
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Monsun himself won on Good/Firm, Good, Soft and Heavy – running to about 120 on G/F and about the same on Heavy (117) at Group 1 & 2 level. So he didn’t have an apparent preference. As to his progeny it depends who he’s matched to. We’ve only seen Ocovango on the soft side or worse but that doesn’t mean he won’t be just as good or better on better going. He's very well balanced and looks like a galloper and has not got a particularly round or high knee action. Fabre says he has never seen Epsom looking as good, with good grass covering. With the expected rain it’ll be perfect Goodish ground which should be okay for all of them.
 
Good quick ground won't suit Ocovango as well as some of them but if there is a good covering he'll get away with it once anyway.
 
Bar the Bull said:
Manduro's progeny shows a slight preference for cut.

I did a bit of analysis on this a few months back on data helpfully provided by Grey. The most statistically significant sire for heavy ground lovers were Jeremy, Doyen and Oratorio, for what it is worth.

Elusive Quality, Lawman and Sir Percy's progeny like to hear their teeth rattle according to my analysis.

What I did find interesting, was that Manduro and Notnowcato were the two sires with progeny that disliked extremes. This would suggest that knee deep ground or tarmac is likely to be disliked by sons and daughters of these two sires.
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That's surprising re: Sir Percy.
 
Frankie Dettori's French agent Herve Naggar says France Galop expect to clear the jockey to ride by Friday evening.

He won't be offered a ride by anyone in the Derby surely ?
 
In today's Post, they canvas views from a variety of experts on the question of whether or not Dawn Approach will stay. I particularly enjoyed this from Henry Beeby: "I think he will stay for two reasons: first, I don't think Jim Bolger would run him if he couldn't, and second, I think he will because he just oozes class, and class will out."

On the first point, presumably no trainer would run a colt in these circumstances if he couldn't stay but that's not the same thing at all as saying that Bolger knows he will stay. Bolger knows no such thing. And on the second point, the logic of this argument is that virtually every above-average Guineas winner to run in the Derby would have won it. That is just not true. Class and stamina are totally different things.

The Derby is run over the stiffest 12f around. If you've ever stood in the stands and looked across at the uphill first 6f, you'll understand why. Contrary to myth, non-stayers don't win it, especially if the pace is a true one. Those who argue Sir Ivor won it despite not getting the trip conveniently ignore the fact that he subsequently won the Washington DC International over the same distance.

There are real stamina doubts about Dawn Approach, Magician, Chopin and Mars. There are none about Ruler Of The World, Battle Of Marengo, Ocovango and Libertarian. Provided this year's race is truly-run, I'd expect the winner to come from the second group.
 
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