Derby/ Oaks

Several reasons why some people including myself think Jack Hobbs can reverse places with Golden Horn for the Derby.

I was disappointed in the way the Dante was run those in front of Golden Horn never got into any sort of Rhythm.

Elm Park set off throwing his head around wanting to get on with thing while Nafaqa didn't help matters by pulling like a train on his inside.

Frankie for some reason decide Jack Hobbs didn't need any cover and takes the scenic route with JFK racing on his inside.

JFK was under pressure from along way out which probably got Jack Hobbs blood up and did him no favours. He certainly wasn't travelling turning for home like you would have expected a high class horse to be going.

Head hung to one side and looking green as a cucumber I thought at that stage he might finish nearer last than first but Frankie manged to get him back together and run a credible second.

While all this s going on Golden Horn who has not been involved sweeps past everything for a comfortable win.

Jack Hobbs gave me the distinct impression he was like a duck out of water and didn't have a clue what was expected of him.

When you consider where he had run before and where Gosden had run Golden Horn it doesn't take a genius to work out which horse was most forward and better prepared to win a Dante.

What really caught my eye was when Golden Horn grabbed the lead Jack Hobbs actually regained a bit of ground on him late on despite Frankie being far from hard on him.

It was a sign albeit a small sign that he was still on a learning curve.

The Derby of course is not the Dante, a different course a different trip.

Of the two Gosden horses my feeling is that Jack Hobbs has more potential. He's got more than enough stamina in his blood to see out the trip and if Frankie can find him a bit of cover and relax him I reckon he could come out on top on Derby day.
 
Euronymous said:
Shame he's gone into the blue bin
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Stupid me forgot about racing politics

Could be a shame for Frankie who loses the ride on Jack Hobbs but I suppose Golden Horn isn't the worst substitute:D

The quote "No matter what happens in the Derby he's in all the good 12f races later in the year" by Oppenheimer would worry me a bit if I were a fan

Mind you looking at what's left in the race there's more chance of finding a Triumph Hurdle winner in the field than something that will shock the first 3 or 4 in the market
 
Jack Hobbs was green and unbalanced at York. Hardly a natural for Epsom. I quite liked the way that Hans Holbein won at Chester and Storm The Stars franked the form at Goodwood. He obviously doesn't show much at home but if the favourites don't stay he's reasonable each way material.
 
What a naff Derby, the naffest since..........Camelot. How long can Investec sponsor such an irrelevance. Group races are ten a penny these days. When the Brigadier was around there there was only classics 'til Ascot and that was the Gold Cup.

think Jack Hobbs will do a Lyphard:(
 
Lyphard had one testicle not fully descended (and some would say was ridden by a guy who had that problem with both)
Whether that affected his steering on the day no one can say for sure.
Probably a non stayer in any event.
Group races may be ten a penny but there is only one Derby.
Coolmore and Godolphin would not agree with you Birdsnest !
 
archie said:
Jack Hobbs was green and unbalanced at York. Hardly a natural for Epsom. I quite liked the way that Hans Holbein won at Chester and Storm The Stars franked the form at Goodwood. He obviously doesn't show much at home but if the favourites don't stay he's reasonable each way material.
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An obvious worry for Jack Hobbs but I reckon after the way he was ridden at Wolverhampton (always wide) they decided to adopt the same plan and ended up burning him out IMO.

Hopefully they will put him to sleep and cover him up on the inside at Epsom and play him once he's in the straight.
 
Euronymous said:
Less than a week to go and I fancy nothing in either race, not at the prices. Strange.
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I'm tother way..normally don't fancy anything..different this year...Jack Naylor "won" the Irish guineas when you take pace into account...same as New Bay did in the 2000...will improve over further and looks superb value
 
EC1 said:
I'm tother way..normally don't fancy anything..different this year...Jack Naylor "won" the Irish guineas when you take pace into account...same as New Bay did in the 2000...will improve over further and looks superb value
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But the Wachman filly won a cracking renewal at Newmarket and will stay.
 
None of the leading fillies in the betting do it for me and they all look beatable.

One filly that could upset them is Luca Cumani's Lady of Dubai.

Her maiden win was nothing special but she looked the part of a top class filly in the making and impressed Cumani enough for him to run her in a listed race at Newmarket.

She ran a good second to Irish Cookie but it was already November and she was said not to be quite herself that day.

On her return she absolutely hosed up over 10 furlongs and the further they went the better she went.

That race should have brought her on a ton and she could not have been more impressive and will love every yard of the Oaks trip.

Rated only 105 while the favourite sits on a 116 I expect that to change dramatically after Friday.

Lady of Dubai 16/1 ew will do for me.
 
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I liked Jack Hobbs more after watching the Breakfast with the Stars gallop - thought he handled the track in a pleasing fashion. In direct contrast to Elm Park who changed legs 7 times in the last 2 furlongs - and that was not while under any pressure! I'd be worried if I was Andrew Balding (think Ian Balding has already stated he doesn't think horse will handle it).
Golden Horn too looked happy on the track as you'd expect. He's also a very chilled horse so if he settles, he will get a mile and a half round Epsom if anywhere.
I liked what I saw in Zawraq (plus the fact he beat my favoured Sir Isaac Newton on debut - yay! SIN eventually won the other night and boy does he hold some fancy entries still)
The AOB entrants (not including Gleneagles) don't for me look classy enough - a couple of Leger types possibly.
 
Golden Horn too looked happy on the track as you'd expect. He's also a very chilled horse so if he settles, he will get a mile and a half round Epsom if anywhere.
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Jinny, I've never been to Epsom, so please let me ask a question of someone whose opinion I respect. Are you saying here that 12f at Epsom is less of a stamina test than at say Ascot or the Curragh?

I ask because I've heard others who build it up and say not to underestimate the hill they climb in the early part of the race?
 
Curragh is stiffer. A fair bit of Epsom is uphill for 12f races (a bit like Goodwood) so it is relatively stiff.
 
Found to skip Epsom. Heads to Ascot for Coronation.

Not surprisingly Gleneagles not going either.
 
Euronymous said:
Curragh is stiffer. A fair bit of Epsom is uphill for 12f races (a bit like Goodwood) so it is relatively stiff.
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Curragh is 'stiffer' only inasmuch as there are less pronounced bends, undulations and camber to break up the pace than Epsom, but Simon Rowlands once described the first 4f or so of the Derby as the stiffest climb in racing.

RP standard times (12f)

Ascot 2m 28.6
Curragh 2m 30.5
Epsom 2m 34.5
 
The standards for Epsom are a bit misleading re stamina imo...the first 5f climbs 120 feetto the 7f pole..that is a real test..but the split times show that horses are covering this faster than you would think as its early in the race..but obviously that will tell later..which is balanced later by the fact they run downhill all the way from 5.5f out..its levelish between 7f and 5.5f out

horses are free wheeling all the way down to the line from 5.5f..there is no rise near the finish as many people think..its an optical illusion as the striaght is so steep downhill..the last furlong is also downhill ..just to a lesser degree ...than the whole straight.

The extreme camber in the straight and sharp turn at Tattenham corner make the time taken to run it longer too..horses are basically running on a helter skelter testing everything..stamina..balance..speed

the Curragh has the climb and then drop into the straight then a slight climb to the line from 3 out

its stiffer in the fact that when horses are really racing ..from 3 out..its a bit uphill..whereas when they are really racing at Epsom..its downhill and leaning left

Epsom has to be the ultimate test of everything..whereas Curragh is a bit boring:)
 
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