Derby/ Oaks
- Thread starter birdsnest
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edgt
Senior Jockey
The speed man on Irish Field last weekend ( not Nick Morden) said GC ran the fastest last 3f at The Curragh of any horse Guineas weekend for what its worth.
Cannot see him win myself.
Cannot see him win myself.
Euronymous
Senior Jockey
He's 7/1 now. Epicuris, who you can make a case for pedigree/ground wise is 25s.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Anything can happen in the Derby and no one knows that better than John Gosden who's Benny The Dip turned over hot pot Entrepreneur &co under a brilliant ride by Willie Ryan
However 5/4 the John Gosden pair against the field looks the bet of the season to me.
I still slightly prefer Jack Hobbs but sometimes it's wise not to ignore value.
With a cloud hanging over Zawrag, the O'Brien brigade clutching at straws with Giovanni Canaletto and Elm Park easily held on Dante form it really does look a bit of a foregone conclusion
John Gosden is not the type to be counting his chickens but it's a safe bet he's already calculated what his percentage of £813,221 2nd £308,310 comes to should both his stay out of trouble and run their races.
I still think Jack Hobbs will come out on top over this trip but I'm sure John Gosden couldn't care less which one of hs wins as long as one of them does.
So I'm taking the the cowards way out and having a right go on dutching the pair
However 5/4 the John Gosden pair against the field looks the bet of the season to me.
I still slightly prefer Jack Hobbs but sometimes it's wise not to ignore value.
With a cloud hanging over Zawrag, the O'Brien brigade clutching at straws with Giovanni Canaletto and Elm Park easily held on Dante form it really does look a bit of a foregone conclusion
John Gosden is not the type to be counting his chickens but it's a safe bet he's already calculated what his percentage of £813,221 2nd £308,310 comes to should both his stay out of trouble and run their races.
I still think Jack Hobbs will come out on top over this trip but I'm sure John Gosden couldn't care less which one of hs wins as long as one of them does.
So I'm taking the the cowards way out and having a right go on dutching the pair
EC1
On a break
GC will win it i think...that run behind Curvy told you a fair bit about him when you look how he closed into a quickening pace at the end over a trip too short. Potentially very decent.
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
I have to agree. As far as I can see the only 3 things he has got going for him are the names Galileo Moore and Aiden O'Brien.
The form book doesn't even come close to suggesting he's a horse who belongs in the field let alone win the race.
He beat Alcatraz in his maiden who somehow ended up in the care of George Baker who manged to win an ordinary looking maiden auction with him at Chepstow
His 2nd to Curvy who is obviously useful wouldn't have me rushing to back him. His high head carriage would worry me and he took forever to get going in what was the second slowest run race of the day.
Even money favourite, he went down to a horse running for the first time in Group 3 company. Granted he was conceding her 3lbs but I don't see Wachman rushing to supplement her for the Oaks based on her beating him.
No disrespect meant but if he was trained by someone like Mick Channon or Richard Guest he'd be 50/1 on what he's shown on the racecourse.
Ryan Moore says he likes him....well I reckon there's more chance of Jamie Moore saying he likes him prior to Cheltenham in a couple of years time than him winning the Derby.
For once AOB is throwing shyte at the wall and hoping some sticks as he simply doesn't look to have a horse good enough this time round.
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EC1
On a break
His 2nd to Curvy who is obviously useful wouldn't have me rushing to back him.
the bare form wouldn't..but if you look harder there is a very useful indicator. Its a bit like when Golden Horn won at Nottingham last year..on paper he just won..but when you see his last 2f split you know he is lbs better than the horse just behind..and Group class..just on that one run.
The fact Curvy's race was slowly run is exactly why his run is even better..had it been truly run then his effort would have been lesser in coming from off the pace
I'll give you an example from yesterday of bare reading of results
Reggie Bond won last night in 108.38.......3yo Haka won in 108.66.
To most people that use times that would mean that Haka has run a race pointing to a rating just less than Reggie..then add wfa. But when you look at how each race was run you can see that Haka is lbs better. Reggie Bonds race was run in 83.3 to 2 out...Haka ran 85.8 to 2 out. From 2 out Hak then pulled most of that back by running 22.82 in the last 2f's. The difference between the two winners is actually that Haka is 18lb+wfa superior to Reggie Bond. Thats pretty useful to know when the handicapper rates Haka and Important Message i would say
all that wouldn't make GC win a derby obviously..but it highlights how bare reading of form only tells 25% of the story
the bare form wouldn't..but if you look harder there is a very useful indicator. Its a bit like when Golden Horn won at Nottingham last year..on paper he just won..but when you see his last 2f split you know he is lbs better than the horse just behind..and Group class..just on that one run.
The fact Curvy's race was slowly run is exactly why his run is even better..had it been truly run then his effort would have been lesser in coming from off the pace
I'll give you an example from yesterday of bare reading of results
Reggie Bond won last night in 108.38.......3yo Haka won in 108.66.
To most people that use times that would mean that Haka has run a race pointing to a rating just less than Reggie..then add wfa. But when you look at how each race was run you can see that Haka is lbs better. Reggie Bonds race was run in 83.3 to 2 out...Haka ran 85.8 to 2 out. From 2 out Hak then pulled most of that back by running 22.82 in the last 2f's. The difference between the two winners is actually that Haka is 18lb+wfa superior to Reggie Bond. Thats pretty useful to know when the handicapper rates Haka and Important Message i would say
all that wouldn't make GC win a derby obviously..but it highlights how bare reading of form only tells 25% of the story
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Point taken, EC, but I think Tanlic is right when he says Giovanni Canaletto is only in the race because Coolmore have no other bullets. Normally when they run horses in the Gallinule it's to see if some of their less precocious stock might be worth running in the Irish Derby, not the Epsom version, which comes to soon. It is a poor reflection on this year's Derby if GC is a proper contender.
EC1
On a break
My figures for that day..show that over the same c/d..Bantry Bay's race was not a true test and neither was Curvys. But when you use the last 3f times of both races it shows you the real worth of each winner.
Bantry Bay = 128.77
Curvy = 128.93
Bantry Bay last 3f time 35.9
after marking the rating up for closing sectional ...that puts Bantry Bay as an 85 horse..seems realistic seeing as an 86 horse was 3rd..maybe conservative.
the interesting bit is when you see Curvys closing sectional...33.8...after sectional mark up that makes her a 115 horse
just by comparison Al Kazeem earned a 115 marked up rating from his race..again..realistic and not overrated.
even more interesting is our new friend..hopefully..Giovanni Canaletto..his closing sectional was 33.10
after marking up for sectional it makes him a 130 horse...and he also gave the weight allowance to Curvy
now obviously..these figures aren't absolutely spot on to the nearest millisecond..but they are lot more accuarte than most data racing pundits accept daily without question...like the going for instance
My view is this is a pretty smart animal..might be wrong..don't really care tbh..just sharing a view..doubt anyone will take much notice anyway..thats if anyone actually reads the post
Bantry Bay = 128.77
Curvy = 128.93
Bantry Bay last 3f time 35.9
after marking the rating up for closing sectional ...that puts Bantry Bay as an 85 horse..seems realistic seeing as an 86 horse was 3rd..maybe conservative.
the interesting bit is when you see Curvys closing sectional...33.8...after sectional mark up that makes her a 115 horse
just by comparison Al Kazeem earned a 115 marked up rating from his race..again..realistic and not overrated.
even more interesting is our new friend..hopefully..Giovanni Canaletto..his closing sectional was 33.10
after marking up for sectional it makes him a 130 horse...and he also gave the weight allowance to Curvy
now obviously..these figures aren't absolutely spot on to the nearest millisecond..but they are lot more accuarte than most data racing pundits accept daily without question...like the going for instance
My view is this is a pretty smart animal..might be wrong..don't really care tbh..just sharing a view..doubt anyone will take much notice anyway..thats if anyone actually reads the post
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EC1
On a break
yes its factored in Wilson...Haka should have had more of a finish than RB as has saved more early..but once you run faster than that "more" ..or expected time..then a truer indication of rating can be gleened
Its a bit like when Kingman walked to the last 2 furlongs at Goodwood...his last 2 furlong time was expected to be at a cerain level..but he exceeded what you expected ..given his early pace..his mark up that day made him a mid 130's horse..whereas most horses running at the same early tempo he did would not have run the last 2 furlongs as fast. Its a benchmarking factor.
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Thanks for the data on Bantry Bay and Giovanni Canaletto.
There was a significant wind that day, blowing straight up the sprint track to the winning post. Horses would have been slowed down by it in the early part of their respective races before being helped by it in the closing stages. How might this influence evaluation of the performances?
On the one hand maybe the races were more truly run than first appears? On the other hand it was harder for GC to make up ground in the straight when all the other runners had a fair wind at their back?
There was a significant wind that day, blowing straight up the sprint track to the winning post. Horses would have been slowed down by it in the early part of their respective races before being helped by it in the closing stages. How might this influence evaluation of the performances?
On the one hand maybe the races were more truly run than first appears? On the other hand it was harder for GC to make up ground in the straight when all the other runners had a fair wind at their back?
EC1
On a break
its impossible t say really Grey..all i can do is compare like with like re distance..the two 10f races are giving a fair of bit of info but obvisously if the wind changes then there is nothing you can do. if there was wind at their backs in the straight then it would help those at the front..which makes it even harder to come from behind
i just try to glean what i can from what is there..at the price i'm happy to chance the calcs are wrong as before i rated this meeting i couldn't see anything getting near the fav..so it adds a bit of interest for me.
Even if i'm 5lb out with winner's mark..it still makes GC a 125 + giving weight to winner
All it has to do now is..is stay 12f and handle Epsom..easy game isn't it?
I'm rather happy Moore is on it though
LBM
At the Start
- Joined
- Jul 22, 2003
- Messages
- 401
EC1, was Prince Gagarin ridden in a efficient way? Is his time figure on that race any close to his OR of 107? and if so, are you suggesting GC should have beaten him by 13l had he been ridden more prominently?
I think handling Epsom is going to be a problem to him. The horse wears a sheep skin noseband for a reason. I don't remember a horse performing well at Epsom with that kind of head carriage.
I think handling Epsom is going to be a problem to him. The horse wears a sheep skin noseband for a reason. I don't remember a horse performing well at Epsom with that kind of head carriage.
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EC1
On a break
no horse ran efficiently in it LBM..the race was slowly run..slower than Bantry Bay's race and that one wasn't even pace either.it turned into a burn up in the straight..the bare speed figure based on overall time was slow.
the sectional marked up speed figures i got were
Curvy 115
Giovanni Canaletto 131
Prince Gagarin 103
they may be a bit overcooked but GC is a very serious contender on Saturday..he is no dart throw imo
EC1
On a break
yes..the figures are projections of what a horse is capable of based on their finishing efforts which is added to the actual speed figure they earn. So if a race is truly run..there is nothing to add to the final time figure.
example......If you saw Timeform's rating for Golden Horn before he ran in the fielden..they had him top rated for that race..whereas RPR had him bottom rated. That was because his run when winning at Nottingham had an exceptionally good finishing split..which made him vastly superior to the runner up..but there was only a head between him and Storm The Stars in that maiden. RPR rated him in traditional way...and in doing so.. underrated him
My figures for that Nottingham maiden were Golden Horn 116...Storm The Stars 104...their official ratings at this moment..are 118 and 106. Those figures worked out pretty good..and i knew them last October..which is pretty neat imo.
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EC1
On a break
Tanlic
Senior Jockey
Race is looking more ordinary by the minute.
I just looked through AOB's runners again but still can't fancy any of them
Grossly over rated and under priced they make absolutely no appeal.
I suppose 1 might reach a place but which one is anyone's guess knowing AOB
As you go through the rest your pockets get deeper and your arms shorter
The Derrinstown winner looks no where near as good as last years Fascinating Rock who was beaten out of sight in last years Derby.
The rest belong in the Pitmans Derby with the exception of Epicuris who I know very little about but assume the fact if they are offering 16/1 he's no greats shakes.
This race has all the making of a Dante repeat but if Elm Park makes it and the Gosden Pair get past him something else surely will pick him up in the closing stages.
Gosden 1-2 and place lay Elm Park and you'll be quids in IMO
I just looked through AOB's runners again but still can't fancy any of them
Grossly over rated and under priced they make absolutely no appeal.
I suppose 1 might reach a place but which one is anyone's guess knowing AOB
As you go through the rest your pockets get deeper and your arms shorter
The Derrinstown winner looks no where near as good as last years Fascinating Rock who was beaten out of sight in last years Derby.
The rest belong in the Pitmans Derby with the exception of Epicuris who I know very little about but assume the fact if they are offering 16/1 he's no greats shakes.
This race has all the making of a Dante repeat but if Elm Park makes it and the Gosden Pair get past him something else surely will pick him up in the closing stages.
Gosden 1-2 and place lay Elm Park and you'll be quids in IMO
Kinda hard to escape the logic that Ryan Moore prefers the Guineas' winner to the Stoute 2nd fav - having ridden both in their latest victories.