Eclipse Stakes

JamesRB said:
if NoT turns out to be able to stay beyond a mile it makes the tactics in the SJP all the more baffling
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seems Hughes believed he could outkick Kingman with a decent start didn't it?..he looked round to see how far back Kingman was..which would suggest he either totally misjudged the race or he thinks NOT is a miler..puzzling one for sure..but everyone thinks he needs further and that 2000 win was a bonus
 
Last forecast I saw was for no more than 5mm of rain, which is unlikely to have a major effect on the ground at this time of the year.
For mine, Kingston Hill is a 12f horse, and won't be winning without plenty of give.
Night Of Thunder should stay 10f, but pitching him in against older horses on a stiff track wouldn't be my idea of the perfect introduction to the distance.
Verrazano ought to improve for the extra distance, but would need to on what looks very ordinary Queen Anne form, and True Story is a talking horse who's yet to show anything near this form on the course.
The Fugue may be best on fast ground, but only 3/4lb worse on good, and as she's improved again this season, ought to have too much finishing kick for these. Wouldn't be betting her yet, though, with doubts about the ground and myriad possibilities of R4 deductions.
 
i'm surprised you aren't going full throttle at NOT Reet

you were keen to see him run against a 125+ horse at further than a mile and thought he would beat such a horse..he now gets that extra trip and receives wfa..which many think is too generous ..from a 123 filly

why the lack of confidence?

not that i'm confident of anything here..but it seems the world was expecting NOT to be able to beat Kingman if given a stiff test..Fugue is not near Kingman.
 
EC1 said:
seems Hughes believed he could outkick Kingman with a decent start didn't it?..he looked round to see how far back Kingman was..which would suggest he either totally misjudged the race or he thinks NOT is a miler..puzzling one for sure..but everyone thinks he needs further and that 2000 win was a bonus
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They knew from the Guineas, in which he overtook Kingman in the final furlong, that he had plenty of pace. They clearly thought if they had a lead on him off a slower pace and got that kick going it would be unlikely, based on the Newmarket run, that Kingman wouldn't be able to give him a start, first run and a beating.

Hughes has already said he couldn't believe how fast he was travelling at Ascot - suggesting he got the tactics spot on - only for Kingman to fly past him. They just didn't realise Kingman didn't run to form in the Guineas and the Irish form was inconclusive.

They know now [how good Kingman is], which is maybe another factor in the decision to try him at 10f. He has very good mile speed, can quicken and is bred for the longer trip, so the Eclipse is a perfectly reasonable next step. I mentioned on here before the Derby that I hoped SteveM was badgering connections to run NOT at Epsom so I don't see this race being an issue.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
They knew from the Guineas, in which he overtook Kingman in the final furlong, that he had plenty of pace. They clearly thought if they had a lead on him off a slower pace and got that kick going it would be unlikely, based on the Newmarket run, that Kingman wouldn't be able to give him a start, first run and a beating.

Hughes has already said he couldn't believe how fast he was travelling at Ascot - suggesting he got the tactics spot on - only for Kingman to fly past him. They just didn't realise Kingman didn't run to form in the Guineas and the Irish form was inconclusive.

They know now [how good Kingman is], which is maybe another factor in the decision to try him at 10f. He has very good mile speed, can quicken and is bred for the longer trip, so the Eclipse is a perfectly reasonable next step. I mentioned on here before the Derby that I hoped SteveM was badgering connections to run NOT at Epsom so I don't see this race being an issue.
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i think you may need to read a few other posts before mine..its not me that thinks he won't stay..exactly the opposite..its Frankel doesn't think he will stay

you preaching to converted

can you keep up young man please?;)
 
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EC1 said:
i'm surprised you aren't going full throttle at NOT Reet

you were keen to see him run against a 125+ horse at further than a mile and thought he would beat such a horse..he now gets that extra trip and receives wfa..which many think is too generous ..from a 123 filly

why the lack of confidence?

not that i'm confident of anything here..but it seems the world was expecting NOT to be able to beat Kingman if given a stiff test..Fugue is not near Kingman.
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Dress it up any way you like (as you invariably do) but beating Kingman for stamina over 1m isn't an absolute guarantee he'll stay this stiff test, and I'd rather have seen him debut in something like the York International.
 
why the dig?..no need for it

you said if it turned into a test at Ascot then NOT would beat Kingman..so you have a test tomorrow with a lesser opponent..getting weight due to WFA being so generous we are always being told..but now have changed your mind.
 
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simmo said:
How so? Looked fairly conclusive to me.
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Inconclusive in the sense that Kingman only had to run close to his Guineas form to win. It told us nothing more vis a vis the probablility of his reversing the Newmarket form with NOT should they meet again. Ascot was conclusive, and how.
 
EC1 said:
i think you may need to read a few other posts before mine..its not me that thinks he won't stay..exactly the opposite..its Frankel doesn't think he will stay

you preaching to converted

can you keep up young man please?;)
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I wasn't addressing my reply to you, EC1, just reinforcing your argument.
 
EC1 said:
why the lack of confidence?

not that i'm confident of anything here..but it seems the world was expecting NOT to be able to beat Kingman if given a stiff test..Fugue is not near Kingman.
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Because price is everything in this game, everything. He isn't value in this race.
 
why isn't he value though?..what can beat him if the ground is slower than good which makes Fugue even less of an opponent?

surely she is the bad value..making every other horse value automatically

poor race for females too
 
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At his price though I'd have preferred a run over the trip. Does Hannon even know how to train one to run further than a mile.
 
The fugue did win the irish champion on ground thought too soft for Declaration of war
And ran 3rd in the 1000 guineas on good to soft
Unless its genuine soft I don't see the big issue with it.
 
Exactly, she had a class advantage.

Difficult to tell whether she enjoys that luxury tomorrow with so many unproven over the trip. It's a watching race for me.
 
The fugue run to 126 on gf last time and runto 116 to win the worst irish champion i can remember, she needs gf to run to her best.
 
Gamla Stan said:
How do you work this out?
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because take her % out of the market and every other horse would be shorter..so they are all value whilst she takes her % out

if this big rain comes the ground will be gs minimum..it was only just top end of Good ground today..so it won't take a lot for it to be gs
 
EC1 said:
because take her % out of the market and every other horse would be shorter..so they are all value whilst she takes her % out
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I'm sorry but this is simply incorrect as it depends how far wrong her price is and how wrong the prices of other horses are (as in some too short).

I priced the race up to 100% as follows:

1 8.70
2 22.62
3 14.79
4 9.57
5 174.87
6 4.79
7 6.96
8 6.09
9 87.87
10 13.05
11 18.27

As you can see, I make Night of Thunder only just very very marginally over 5/1 therefore he isn't value for me despite me making The Fugue 8% bigger than her current price.
 
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