Hi everyone, this is my first post and I've really enjoyed reading through this forum, some very smart people with intelligent views on this site. I've loved horse racing since I was a kid and have been lucky enough in my life to have been present as Red Rum won his third National, watched Shergar glide over the mud, saw Dancing Brave fail to catch Shahrastani, Zafonic zoom away from Barathea and many other great days. Experience has taught me to use the formbook as a guide rather than a mathematical formula and I get much more enjoyment nowadays out of looking at the stories behind the horses. Here's my long winded (I was bored as the footie has finished) take on the runners in the Eclipse.
I took the 16's on Mukhadram as it seems that it's easy to forget he was more fancied than The Fugue at Ascot and is now available at 8x her price. I suspect he will be ridden more aggressively this time. Son of the excellent sire Shamardal out of Magic Tree who only ran once as a 2yo for Mick Channon who is a daughter of Moyesii who ran exclusively in France and was just below Listed Class, herself a daughter of the fantastically fast filly Cherokee Rose (remember her). He does tend to always find one or two too good, but has solid competitive group 1 10f form and the formbook is full of horses like this finally having their day (and also not).
Trading Leather a son of Teofilo by Night Visit (a daughter of a lightly raced Sinndar filly) so you would imagine stamina rather than speed is his forte but the bottom line is only 4 horses have ever finished in front of him in his 4 races at 10f including two very good group 1 events and as good as The Fugue is she's not 12x better than this chap. Last time out the race was not run to suit (held up off a slow pace) but he was still a bit disappointing and I suspect this is not his primary target for the season and this race will put him spot on for a big run in the KG, but the 25's that was available was really too big a price.
Tullius has been a joy to watch this year. Just beaten in the Lincoln has turned into a good solid group 2/3 miler this year. Going to give his connections a good fun day out, but this field is too hot.
Verrazano is an interesting one. Out of More Than Ready and a Giant's Causeway filly, he's beautiful to look at. Breeding suggests to me a true run 10f might be a bit far to see him at his best, but his racing style suggests he may well run well, but the price is very short when others with comparable or better form are available at bigger odds.
The exotically bred Zambucca has yet to show anything for her new stable.
The Fugue is a real star and 2/1 for a reason. Basically if your backing against her your hoping the ground will change, it won't be truly run, she will meet interference, will suffer from some exclusively female ailment or just go wrong like last year. A daughter of the Gosden trained Twyla Tharp who was essentially a listed class staying filly and was the product of a cross between Sadler's Wells and a Mtoto (that brilliant dual Eclipse winner) filly Sumoto who was trained by G Wragg and beat no less a filly then Sayyedati on her one run as a 2yo in the early 90's. I remember following her career as a 3yo where she was very disappointing, but the bottom line was she met a setback after her debut and never recovered that form and Sayyedati had needed the run.
Kingston Hill is a lovely horse and ran a great race in the Derby, but met a good one. His Dam Audacieuse ran exclusively in France and was a Listed/Gp3 10f filly. Her Dam, Sarah Georgina, only ever raced 4 times as a 2yo, but did manage to cause a shock and beat that brilliant filly In The Groove in a graduation race at Windsor on her second run before disappointing thereafter. I'm not convinced with the DI argument as last years winner Al Kazeems has a DI = 0.87 & CD = -0.07, he looks like he'll be an effective 10-12f 3yo horse to me.
Night of Thunder out of Dubawai, who was the best off spring of the ill fated brilliant Dubai Millenium (or Yazeer as he was originally named) is exactly the sort of horse I love to follow. His dam Forest Storm raced exclusively in Ireland for J Bolger and was a little bit short of Listed class and cost me a couple of quid without giving me much to shout about in her races. A daughter of Galileo and Quiet Storm (who was a similar type trained by G Wragg), Quiet Storm was the daughter of the Ian Balding trained Hertford Castle who was absolutely rubbish and never finished within 20 lengths of the winner in the 3 maidens she ran in. The reason I mention this is that Hertford Castle was born to be a star as she was the result of a meeting between the very game little Forest Flower and Reference Point and surely anyone with hair that is starting to go grey will remember those two and that's why my loose change was on Night of Thunder at 40/1 on guineas day. He should run a big race but the 9/2 available (will probably drift a bit) seems a little bit stingy, especially as there is a valid question whether he will be as effective over a true run 10f as a mile.
Somewhat who is in as True Stories pacemaker is the son of Sometime an unraced filly trained by the late Henry Cecil who was the daughter of another H Cecil trained filly called Alidiva, a good listed class miler in the late 80's and Somewhat is quite a nice colt, just not up to this class.
And now to the horse my money isn't on, but who I'll be willing on as the field turn for home. The Fallon talking horse True Story. Out of that good German horse Manduro and Tanzania who is the product of Darshaan meeting Rosefinch. Rosefinch was trained by A Fabre and was a filly whose career I followed with a lot of interest. Just like Hertford Castle she was born to light up the racing world and for a short time she looked liked she would as she won the Gp1 Saint Alary before slightly disappointing in the French Oaks in 1992. Rosefinch was the daughter of Blushing Groom and Oh So Sharp, how's that for stellar parents.
Finally War Command by War Front the sire of Declaration of War who is bred to get this 10f. His dam Wandering Star was trained by James Fanshawe in the mid 90's and was a good miler/ fast 10f filly who won the EP Taylor in Canada on her final start, the best form of any of the dams in this line up. It really wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if he ran a great race, but he does seem to have developed a habit of getting outpaced when the field start to quicken before staying on, which could be a problem at Sandown.
As is obvious to all if the ground stays the firm side of good The Fugue is a strong worthy favourite, however I suspect this is not a race to bet your wage check on, but as the field turns for home I expect to see Mukhadram and Trading Leather in the firing line as Somewhat fades and will probably give a good run for my combined 9/1 bet before likely being caught by one or two near the line (most likely The Fugue), but my eyes will Oh So be on the great grandson of the 1985 Triple Crown heroine who I Oh So enjoyed watching.
I wish you all luck with your selection on Saturday, it should be a great spectacle.
