Eclipse Stakes

Desert Orchid said:
Tanlic, do you realise you're suggesting a horse wasn't trying in a big race??

I don't know about you, but I'm certainly not allowed to suggest that...
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No I am not suggesting he wasn't trying. You can't just flick a switch and tell a horse today's the day. What I was saying is Hillstar may not have been 100% and he may well put up a much better performance next time he runs.

As far as the Eclipse it's complicated

My worry with the Fugue is she has been turned over several times in races where really she should have won.

She let punters down twice in Hong Kong, lost in the Breeders and the Yorkshire Oaks when she was expected to win and this might be her toughest challenge to date.

The 2000 Guineas form is rock solid and the hope is Night of Thunder is better at this trip than a mile but there's no getting away from the fact he wasn't just beaten by Kingman he was slaughtered.


Of the two I prefer The Fugue but there are plenty boil overs in racing and this race might end up being yet another one.

Toranado won this last year ad on his return won the Queen Ann from Verrazano but the horse that caught my eye in that race was Andrew Balding's Tullius who was gaining on the leaders all the way to the line.

He looked like he was crying out for 10f that day a distance he has tackled only once in his life in 2011.

He's got a fair bit to find with the likes of the Fugue but he definitely shaped like the extra distance may bring e few lengths improvement which would just be about enough to win this.

I'll be having a bet Tullius at around 50-60 plus a place bet on the place market with Betfair and a saver on The Fugue
 
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looks like plenty of rain is going to come overnight into tommorow

tempted to plough into Kingston Hill now
 
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using the forum fav for distance preference..the dosage

[12F]Derby Average DI = 1.24...CD = 0.22

Kingston Hill DI = 0.90 ....CD = 0.10

Looking at that it looks more like a Leger horse...too slow for 10f....in which case it won't be winning any Eclipse's.

he only really put his best in after 10f in the Derby as well
 
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With the pace in the race EC, the trip will be no issue imo. The rain expected will only help his cause, as will the finish at Sandown.
 
how much rain are we expecting?

..they have changed their mind where i live..yes its going to rain but not much

i wonder if its going to affect the ground any more than when they water it to Good

i'm not sure Frankel..first thing i'll do is check the going..i just don't think a Leger type will have gears on what will probably be Good/soft..even if its soft i don't fancy it

a very good race..a real puzzle..especially with the weather adding to it
 
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Enough to let him run. Good ground will be fine. Don't think soft is essential to him, though obviously it certainly helps as he handles it well. The key here is pace, of which there is plenty.
 
a strong pace at 10f doesn't make a stayer like him win though for me..good luck with it..way i'm going i'll just watch the race ..first job is knowing the going before i get me wallet out
 
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We'll see how it pans out tomorrow.
You say you would not even fancy him on soft. What beats him? If it is soft then I'll be raiding another piggy bank.
 
if soft then NOT has won on it..and if he is better over 10 as many suggest then must be the one...i can't see it being soft though..it must be very fast at the moment..will do the times later and see just what it is like today
 
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Kingston boat has nearly sailed but is still in the harbour I think, can see him shortening from 6 but you want your head testing if you were considering backing him and didn't take the 9 & 8 yesterday given the forecast.

Tullius a likely non stayer but won't be going off 33 with the rain forecast.

Wouldn't be a million for Gosden pulls the Fugue out if it goes on the soft side.
 
Think he means Tullius. Probably won't stay enough to win but could stay enough to place and you'll be getting 33 a 16-20 poke IMO
 
think he was replying to me Stan tbh..then again i was surprised he didn't think NOT would stay

can you clarify your non stayer Frankel?

the straight course today is described as being slower than the round course..first race time 60.87
 
EC1 said:
you don't think NOT will stay?..surprised you say that..why do you think that?
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I can see why he would have his backers. Personally though, visually i don't see him getting home. Even more so with the pace in the race.
 
if NoT turns out to be able to stay beyond a mile it makes the tactics in the SJP all the more baffling
 
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