Election 2024

The BBC hasn't updated its Poll tracker (still dated 27th June) since my last numbers post, so I will wait for a fresh update there.

The betting isn't much changed either - 50-99 seats remains the 2.12 favourite for the Conservatives and 450-499 is still favourite at 2.24 for Labour.
 
Ian_Davies said:
I have mentioned him a few times, but there are many others.

The calibre of so many people who get into positions of power has never been lower - Labour isn't exactly the brains trust, the Tories have had the most light weight Cabinet of my lifetime and even their supposedly-smart business donors have made idiotic gaffes.

Imagine being so stupid you bet on an election UNDER YOUR OWN NAME using an online account?

They can't even be corrupt efficiently.

For me, that whole pay for public school/networking path is largely to blame as it's the origin, the genesis, of the path to power for so many of them.

How many kids from poor backgrounds could have shone or could yet shine if given equal opportunity?

And yet some label this equality of opportunity aspiration the "politics of envy."

The fact is it's the politics of wanting to create a more equal society, where the nation is led by the most intelligent, not the offspring of the most wealthy.
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100% Ian. What frustrates me most is their entitled stupidity. They just can't hide their arrogance of being from a privileged background and as you say they are so lacking in any sort of joined up thinking. There is the odd exception. At least the likes of Clarke and heseltine had an idea how to run things. Now it's all about profit and greed and to he'll with the carnage it causes.
 
Coach miguel said:
100% Ian. What frustrates me most is their entitled stupidity. They just can't hide their arrogance of being from a privileged background and as you say they are so lacking in any sort of joined up thinking. There is the odd exception. At least the likes of Clarke and heseltine had an idea how to run things. Now it's all about profit and greed and to he'll with the carnage it causes.
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You see, I always quite liked Heseltine - ok, I'm biased because he was the only one to grow a pair and bring down Thatcher, but it wasn't just that, he was moderate, bright, an individual and he had a sense of humour - he even used to laugh at John Smith's jokes poking fun at his own government.

If I was some dim-witted ex-public school boy whose Dad had bankrolled my entire education, I'd at least keep quiet about it and if I decided to ponce a few quid abusing my position by having a bet on an election date I knew had been pre-determined, I'd do it anonymously at a betting shop or get someone (a "beard") to place a cash bet in a shop for me.

What sort of a Grade A, 24-carat, chinless idiot does it using an online account in their own name?

They can't even behave badly efficiently - the thought of public schools just churning out even more of these goons in future horrifies me tbh.

"Politics of envy," my arse - it's the politics of creating a meritocracy where those who actually have a brain call the shots.
 
The only thing I'm envious in life is those who have time. I always seem to be rushing. All most folk want is a competent govt who improve the lot of the average Joe. Not one who have massively increased the gap between rich and poor. Classing this as envy just shows how out of touch with reality some are.
 
Heseltine was at a people’s vote meeting that I went to and I’ve never been in the presence of someone so ministerial. I felt that I needed to curtesy in front of him
 
I thought the above meme of Angela Rayner, which looks photoshopped, was arguably misogynistic, actually, and I can just imagine the justifiable reaction if a similar meme was posted of a lady who was a Conservative politician.
 
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Three Reform candidates' names will still be on voters' ballot forms, even though they have ben 'dropped from the party' after outrageous racial slurs. It is too late for their names to be taken off the ballot papers. They will be standing as independent candidates.

Farage says that, even though they are not official Reform candidates, we should still vote for them if we wish to register support for Reform.

Scandalous that he is, by saying this, supporting the three racist scoundrels. Skullduggery. "If you're as racist as that, vote for them/us."

The words 'cake' and 'eat it' spring to mind.

What a piece of work. Horrendous. As slippery as the day is long.

I suppose, at least, we'll be able to gauge the amount of racism that resides amongst the voters in the respective constituencies. That's democracy.

Farrage also says that the Reform canvasser caught on tape spitting out disgusting racist invective was an 'actor' and that it was a put up job.

It is not true.

Which is surprising since you'd expect one actor to correctly recognise another, wouldn't you.
 
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I was thinking tonight about how proud I was to live in a country that, in the main, is turning politically to the centre left at a time when much of the world is frighteningly going the other way.
 
I know what you mean, Moehat, but the worry is what's happening in parts of Europe is a glimpse at what might be coming in Britain further down the road.

I think Labour will win and win big on Thursday, but I also think any historically-based notion a landslide guarantees victory again five years later (in 2029 in this instance) too is wrong.

We live in volatile times and I think massive gains can be just as easily lost.

Starmer will be under pressure more than any Labour PM in my lifetime to make the lives of the majority better because, if he fails, imo the consequence really could be a Farage-led government in 2029.
 
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The volatility is very worrying but hardly surprising given govts everywhere have paid lip service to folks concerns on most issues. Reap what you so. Plus con artists being found out.
 
The right wingers and their organs are boxing very in some cases. They know this Tory government is out. Take, for instance, today’s recommendation by the Sunday Times that their readers should vote Labour. The Times? Rupert Murdoch’s Times? Surely not. Surely so, since a right smashing for the Tory party will start a seismic shift to the right. This is what is being prepared.
A Tory government with Farrage at the helm, Breverman as Home Secretary? Surely not. Very likely
The first job of the Tory media is get them out, secondly to open up the artillery at the Labour government at every turn.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Just a week to go to Polling Day, and the latest updated poll-of-poll numbers suggest a slight ease in Labour support, ditto Reform UK (though the vagaries of first-past-the-post ironically giving them more Seats) and a strengthening of the Liberal Democrats, increasing their prospects of incredibly ending up as the Official Opposition. The Conservatives will no doubt be praying for a collapse in support for Reform UK in the final week....

Betting

Most Seats
Labour 1.01
Reform UK 120
Conservatives 190

Overall Majority
Labour 1.04
No Overall Majority 26
Reform UK 150
Conservatives 260

Conservative Seats
50-99 2.1
100-149 3.65
0-49 6
150-199 13

Conservatives to lose 201+ Seats: 1.11

Labour Seats
450-499 2.24
400-449 2.88
350-399 8.4
500+ 17.5

Source: "The Machine"

Latest (27th June) BBC Poll Tracker
Labour 40%
Conservatives 20%
Reform UK 16%
Liberal Democrats 12%
Green 6%

Electoral Calculus User-Defined
Seats Prediction Based On Above
Labour 450
Liberal Democrats 75
Conservatives 57
Reform UK 18
Green 4

Labour Majority: 250
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Four days to go to Polling Day, and the latest updated poll-of-poll numbers this morning suggest things are getting worse again for the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats might well end up as Official Opposition (seats based, not popular vote based). The Tories need the Reform UK bubble to burst as it's marginal in so many areas, but, while the betting is factoring that in, any collapse in support for Farage has yet to show up in the polls.

Betting

Most Seats
Labour 1.01
Reform UK 130
Conservatives 200

Overall Majority
Labour 1.04
No Overall Majority 26
Conservatives 150
Reform UK 180

Conservative Seats
50-99 2.12
100-149 4 (3/1)
0-49 7.4
150-199 9.4

Conservatives to lose 201+ Seats: 1.14

Labour Seats
450-499 2.18
400-449 3
350-399 8.2
500+ 24

Source: "The Machine"

Latest (29th June) BBC Poll Tracker
Labour 40%
Conservatives 20%
Reform UK 16%
Liberal Democrats 11%
Green 6%

Electoral Calculus User-Defined
Seats Prediction Based On Above
Labour 467
Liberal Democrats 72
Conservatives 61
Reform UK 6
Green 3

Labour Majority: 284
 
Ian_Davies said:
I know what you mean, Moehat, but the worry is what's happening in parts of Europe is a glimpse at what might be coming in Britain further down the road.

I think Labour will win and win big on Thursday, but I also think any historically-based notion a landslide guarantees victory again five years later (in 2029 in this instance) too is wrong.

We live in volatile times and I think massive gains can be just as easily lost.

Starmer will be under pressure more than any Labour PM in my lifetime to make the lives of the majority better because, if he fails, imo the consequence really could be a Farage-led government in 2029.
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He has to get immigration under control. Which might be difficult if a right wing France aren’t easy to work with. I think Brexit was our lurch to the right ( although the far left were equally anti EU). And we’ve ( hopefully) pulled back from that.
 
moehat said:
He has to get immigration under control. Which might be difficult if a right wing France aren’t easy to work with
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Counterintuitively, it strikes me as possible that a right wing France might actually ease the problem with illegal 'small boat' migration by them stepping up security at their continental borders and mediterranean coast, and/or a no-holds-barred closure of the Calais area camps and forced repatriation of the refugees therein

Or, perhaps rather more constructively, a resolute unflinching effort to dismantle the smuggling gangs modus operandi: the 'dinghy' supply chain

A deflated dinghy is a whole lot more difficult to hide than a kilo of coke. Where do they all come from and how are they transported to La Manche?

A very interesting night in France beckons

By gum, how I wish we'd had a two-week election campaign here too
 
It is bizarre - my interpretation is that the running poll of polls and Betfair market are, with time running out, crystallising around 467 seats for Labour being the most likely outcome, so 450-499 tightens, 400-449 holds its price, but 500+ weakens because the chances of that now seem to be gradually receding.

But imo it's going to come down to fine margins in literally hundreds of seats, it still wouldn't entirely surprise me if Labour hit 500+, but it wouldn't surprise me either if Labour ended up closer to 400.
 
I’m still worried about voter complacency. As is Alastair Campbell. I won’t be happy till we start to get the results in. Might be able to sleep properly in a weeks time, too!
 
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