Election 2024
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Ian_Davies
Apprentice
And so we come to it, at last, the eve of this surreal General Election campaign. My final BBC poll of polls has Labour's lead shrinking slightly, as they are down to 39% with the Conservatives rallying a touch to 21%. The "shy Tory" factor may yet still be alive and well, 32 years on from 1992, so it might not be quite the extinction-level catastrophe the polls for some weeks predicted. But I still think it's going to be a very bad night tomorrow night to be a Tory. The Liberal Democrats and Reform UK votes seems to have plateaued, but the Greens continue to make a little progress. The below is not a prediction, it's simply the last latest numbers from the BBC Poll of Polls. I personally will be deeply unhappy if the Conservatives win a single seat and Starmer fails within 30 days of taking office to pass legislation making uttering or writing the words "politics of envy," a criminal offence carrying a mandatory custodial sentence, but then some people are never satisfied and I am manifestly one of them. Happy Election Day, everyone, and if you're a Tory reading this, yes, I am gratuitously ripping the p*ss out of you. I've been waiting 14 long years for the opportunity and I'm not about to spurn it now it's arrived. That would require grace and quality and it goes without saying I possess neither.
Betting
Most Seats
Labour No Offers
Reform UK 140
Conservatives 300
Overall Majority
Labour 1.03
No Overall Majority 32
Reform UK 150
Conservatives 420
Conservative Seats
50-99 2.3
100-149 2.64
150-199 9.6
0-49 13.5
Conservatives to lose 201+ Seats: 1.12
Labour Seats
450-499 2.36
400-449 2.42
350-399 9.4
500+ 20
Source: "The Machine"
Latest (3rd July) BBC Poll Tracker
Labour 39%
Conservatives 21%
Reform UK 17%
Liberal Democrat's 11%
Green 7%
Electoral Calculus User-Defined
Seats Prediction Based On Above
Labour 462
Conservatives 70
Liberal Democrats 70
Reform UK 7
Green 3
Labour Majority: 274
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walsworth
Journeyman
When I was diagnosed with Leukaemia in early 2020, I had almost reconciled myself to the thought that I would never see another Labour government.
Hopefully we will see one this week but I do hope that people will not listen to the horseshit from the other parties and in particularly SNP that it is a foregone conclusion and not bother to vote.
I am convinced that was what happened in the 2016 referendum.
Hopefully we will see one this week but I do hope that people will not listen to the horseshit from the other parties and in particularly SNP that it is a foregone conclusion and not bother to vote.
I am convinced that was what happened in the 2016 referendum.
Coach miguel
Apprentice
I can't see labour getting more than 410 seats. The lavatories will get around 140 odd and the lib dems around 60. Can see the snp doing much better than polls suggest too. Reform figures Inflated IMHO and maybe 2 mps for them. I'll be staying up to watch the carnage and the tories claiming 140 seats is a victory really as they were expecting much worse.
Ian_Davies
Apprentice
You can see the media narrative already.
If Labour don't get the so-called "supermajority" the polls have been suggesting, they will be accused of failing to enthuse the electorate despite facing the worst government of all time, the Tories will make out it's a great effort in adversity (conveniently forgetting they created their own adversity) and the rest will say once again they're victims of first-past-the-post, with Reform warning this is just the start.
I will still be following it, though, clinging to my plaintive hope Labour do even better than expected.
On a brighter note, The Daily Star aren't exactly beating around the bush....
If Labour don't get the so-called "supermajority" the polls have been suggesting, they will be accused of failing to enthuse the electorate despite facing the worst government of all time, the Tories will make out it's a great effort in adversity (conveniently forgetting they created their own adversity) and the rest will say once again they're victims of first-past-the-post, with Reform warning this is just the start.
I will still be following it, though, clinging to my plaintive hope Labour do even better than expected.
On a brighter note, The Daily Star aren't exactly beating around the bush....
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trudij
Senior Jockey
I
Desert Orchid
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That's pretty much been the tactic since the election was called. Tories quietly letting it be known they know they're in for an off-the-scale rogering in the hope that people don't see the point of going out and voting and that way they cling on to a host of marginal seats.
Labour is wise to it, hence their message in interviews has been to reinforce the necessity of getting out there and voting.
I do worry that the former will happen.
What isn't going to help is the shite weather up here today. That's going to go a long way towards keeping the SNP in power up here by default.
I'm not going to be able to celebrate as I'd hoped either. Things didn't go exactly to plan at the dentist's yesterday and I ended up with multiple stitches so alcohol is off the menu for the next couple of days. (Maybe the dentist is an SNP secret agent...)
simmo
Senior Jockey
I've Painted my face with a st Andrews cross and will be taking my claymore to the polling station. Hope they let me in!
Ian_Davies
Apprentice
So funny - love it tbf.
trudij
Senior Jockey
I’m feeling very organised because Soph and I went on the way to school. Was nice really - village polling station, so very quiet, three nice ladies in charge of things and I got to show her what goes on and explain it to her. Shes 9 years old - all she cares about is the environment, abused animals and horse racing. She wanted to vote green apart from their anti racing stance. So she picked “ the orange man” because our local Lib Dem man ( Phil Hutty) was the only one who came to see us - the others just posted leaflets.
So anyone who thinks that bit of extra effort doesn’t get noticed… that’s going to stick with her for a very long time.
Much flip-flopping as the day progresses no doubt but at present the favourite spread for Conservative seats has moved from 50-99 to 100-149 (Ian Davies' friend must have had a lump on
) and Labour seats from 450-499 to 400-449
Very small differences mind, almost joint favs
) and Labour seats from 450-499 to 400-449Very small differences mind, almost joint favs
Ian_Davies
Apprentice
He has and he's getting insufferably excited - fortunately he's off to Yarmouth today to see a horse he owns a whisker of so I'll be spared the worst of it.Ian Davies' friend must have had a lump on
I'm seeing the same as Drone - the media were for ages behind the polls, the Betfair market mirrored the polls but forgot the lessons of 1992 (or assumed they're factored in) but now Tories 100-149 has usurped 50-99 and Labour 400-449 might do the same with 450-499.
Not quite as horrible for the Tories as once thought, but still horrible.
I've already voted (for a chap called Luke Murphy), it's a lovely sunny day here in Hampshire (alright, Basingstoke - I always was a male Hyacinth Bouquet) and I will be stocking up at Waitrose later for the evening's entertainment.
If you click on the BBc News online headline
"Millions Head To The Polls To Vote In UK General Election," it'll take you to a picture of a man and his dog leaving a polling station. It's a Herculean effort for Billy Connolly to come all the way back to Scotland to vote SNP. Good on him, eh? He's looking younger these days. lol
walsworth
Journeyman
Reform candidate here is handing out free Hobnobs.
Apparently they are on offer in Lidl's.
Apparently they are on offer in Lidl's.
Ian_Davies
Apprentice
If they're chocolate hob nobs, I might consider doing my best impression of a knuckle-dragging racist until I've eaten them all.
Desert Orchid
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"Millions Head To The Polls To Vote In UK General Election,"
Again, the BBC doing the Tories' will.
Keep up the narrative that there's no point in voting, ie millions are out there voting (when they're not) so people will assume they don't need to go out and vote, which will play right into the Tory strategy.
Again, the BBC doing the Tories' will.
Keep up the narrative that there's no point in voting, ie millions are out there voting (when they're not) so people will assume they don't need to go out and vote, which will play right into the Tory strategy.
Your incumbent MP Maria Miller strikes me one of the few half-decent centrist 'one nation' Tories though I do of course hope Mr Murphy triumphs
I've voted and my red rose buttonhole caused some mirth
Busy at the polling station and a teller informed me that voting had been 'brisk' all morning
to be fair Des, it is true that there are millions heading to the polls. If it was "Hundreds of Thousands Head To The Polls", there would be serous concerns.
Spot on.
Well done Soph! I was out canvassing with our Labour candidate last weekend and agree that it makes such a difference meeting someone personally. The trouble is canvassing is so time consuming and in two hours we only covered two streets. Alastair Campbell has been speaking to lots of schoolchildren recently; he’s amazed at how well informed many of them are. I’m not sure what age his book ‘ But what can I do’ is aimed at but he wants everyone to become engaged with politics. I’m not as left wing as Tony Benn but used to go to his talks and bought a copy of his book Letters to my Grandchildren for my grandsons. I told him how cynical I had become about politics and he said ‘be critical, not cynical’. Things like that stay with you. Ditto emails from MP’s that email you back even though you’re not in their constituency and aren’t obliged to do so; as one Conservative MP told me ‘ you could vote for us you know, it is a secret ballot’. When it comes to the sort of issues she is interested in she could always get you to email any MP’s involved in those issues and could sign it with you.
Shes 9 years old - all she cares about is the environment, abused animals and horse racing. She wanted to vote green apart from their anti racing stance. So she picked “ the orange man” because our local Lib Dem man ( Phil Hutty) was the only one who came to see us - the others just posted leaflets.
So anyone who thinks that bit of extra effort doesn’t get noticed… that’s going to stick with her for a very long time.
Desert Orchid
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Yes, obviously it's a fact that millions will go to the polls today but it doesn't mean the BBC doesn't have a pro-Tory agenda.
Delighted to read this. When my daughter was ready to vote for the first time she said to me that she thought that she might vote for "my" party. I replied by saying that I was pleased that she had decided to vote & I hoped that she would always use her vote - for which ever party she herself chose.
Shes 9 years old - all she cares about is the environment, abused animals and horse racing. She wanted to vote green apart from their anti racing stance. So she picked “ the orange man” because our local Lib Dem man ( Phil Hutty) was the only one who came to see us - the others just posted leaflets.
So anyone who thinks that bit of extra effort doesn’t get noticed… that’s going to stick with her for a very long time.
Ian_Davies
Apprentice
I would say that is an astute observation and back in the infancy of betting exchanges, when I owned one myself, and the legislation surrounding them was unclear, I asked Maria Miller to ask a question on my behalf in the House Of Commons and, despite her lack of domain expertise on the subject, she did it with impeccable efficiency.
She's alright - for a (and but she's still a) Tory!
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Hiya Des.
I often read the Holmesdale Online forum (being a Palace fan), I looked in on it one day and was amazed at the stone I'd turned over in the 'news and politics' section. That site is, basically, a really far-right, Yaxley-Lennon supporting, anti muslim, anti-multi-cultural, anti 'woke', Farrage supporting, Orbaan supporting, anti left ('communists') tribe.
In the 'BBC - Again' thread in there, they say exactly the opposite: that the BBC is run by left wing, intellectual, woke liberals which is completely biased towards the 'establishment' , which they see as a bunch of university graduates whose minds have been indoctrinated by a left-wing agenda promulgated by all the lecturers and principals housed therein.
How a Left - wing broadcaster would give us the National Anthem when they sign off each night or on the King's birthday, I'll leave you to wonder.
They have all switched to what they call 'The real News' - GB News, which they admit is right-wing biased but you're not forced to pay to watch it through paying a licence fee., unlike the BBC.
Naturally, when Farago is running the new Conservative party, the licence fee and the NHS (free at the point of delivery for all) will go.
Desert Orchid
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The pro-Tory bias in the BBC is something I've detected myself for years but can't put my finger on many of the nuances of scripts but my suspicions are largely confirmed by Mrs O and our daughter.
Mrs O is into media analysis, having studied this stuff and taught it for years, and is often deciphering news items, debates, loaded questions, etc etc on various TV programmes, not just the BBC. She doesn't hold the BBC in very high regard when it comes to politic neutrality.
Orchidette has more letters after her name than she has in it, mostly related to English, Languages, Linguistics, etc (there's an LLB in there too) and she says exactly the same thing.
Mrs O is into media analysis, having studied this stuff and taught it for years, and is often deciphering news items, debates, loaded questions, etc etc on various TV programmes, not just the BBC. She doesn't hold the BBC in very high regard when it comes to politic neutrality.
Orchidette has more letters after her name than she has in it, mostly related to English, Languages, Linguistics, etc (there's an LLB in there too) and she says exactly the same thing.