Election 2024

10.5 No Overall Majority (11.0 now) makes a semblance of appeal as does the near-related contingency of 7.0 Labour to win 300-349 seats which covers the 'magic' overall majority figure of 326

I've an inkling the Liberal Democrats will do very well and win 50+ seats, mainly across the south. Unfortunately there seems to be no market available for number of Liberal Seats other than the U/O 25.5 seats with 26+ being 1.16 - no thanks
 
What do the Scottish correspondents on here make of the SNP's chances at the GE?

It would appear to this sassenach that they're in for a damned good thrashing (deserved?) mainly by Labour

Is the unpleasant little fat man standing anywhere for his Alba outfit?
 
I suspect that there will be significant losses for the SNP, but that will be mitigated by people like myself - I'm fed up of the SNP government up here, but I'm buggered if I'm voting for any of the other parties given their stance on independence.

Which obviously leaves me with a choice of abstention or voting SNP anyway.

Fairly sure salmond is an irrelevance.
 
I think the fizz is as good as gone from the independence momentum, thankfully. I can't see Swinney emphasising it too much either.

That said, it isn't hard to see what a brilliant job the Conservatives have done in promoting independence. They have screwed Scotland right, left and centre, making the SNP look almost palatable. And the Scottish Conservative leader Douglas has history when it comes to missing Commons business because of football officiating 'duties' and had to refer himself for not declaring some of that income. The guy is a total weasel.

Sadly, for a country that gave Britain some brilliant politicians down the years, Scotland has become a political backwater with young people bereft of political awareness. They've been steeped in independence and LGBT deflection for half a generation.

I really do hope for a Labour landslide but expect it to be a tad closer than that. Either way, the job Labour face trying to put right all the things the Tories have got wrong is mountainous.
 
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The feature of this Election campaign (and tbh the last few years) for me is that this Conservative Party seems to have deserted its tradition of being an election-winning machine.

Both right and centre right used to pull together at critical times in a way Labour could only envy.

Even in 1997, when disunited, the Tories conducted themselves better than this.

Less than a week into the campaign and they seem to be disintegrating in public view.

I now think the Labour victory might be even greater than the polls suggest.
 
Ian_Davies said:
38 days until Election Day....

Most Seats
Labour 1.05
Conservatives 19

Overall Majority
Labour 1.12
No Overall Majority 10.5
Conservatives 55

Source: "The Machine."
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With 35 days until Polling Day....

Most Seats
Labour 1.04
Conservatives 22

Overall Majority
Labour 1.11
No Overall Majority 11.5
Conservatives 50

Source: "The Machine."
 
geordiecolin said:
Sovereignty v globalism. Because the EU is all about globalism and dictating what countries can and can not do. Right now EU countries are getting pushed towards National Service because they want to create an EU army and most youngsters rightly do not want to fight wars that only benefit greed and those who's own kids are protected from fighting themselves.
The world is slowly opening up to world agenda's via internet information and the powers are doing everything to stop it because they prefer their public to stay dumb,keep watching mind numbing shit on tv and the crap pushed by the media. Taking the drugs both legal and illegal, drinking, playing videogames, escaping reality,fucking with their sexual identity and saving the world from a fake climate issue.
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It’s a shame to see that the forum relaunch has made space for such conspiracy theory cranks and halfwits.

This drivel comes not long after some other newbie twat was boosting for Katie Hopkins worldview.

This place is fu*cked, and I’m checking out.

Good luck to all the good guys. They know who they are.
 
I regarded one of the benefits for me personally of joining TH as being the renewed opportunity to interact with you, Grasshopper (sorry, I don't recall your actual name - if you ever told me it, that is).

Like you, I don't share Kieron's (Oldtimer's) apparent fondness for the worldview of Kate Hopkins, or his opinions on many things generally.

But I find myself in a place in my life where, if possible, I'd like to co-exist peacefully with others, agree to disagree, and replace conflict with ignoring that which I oppose.

I felt Kieron offered me a bit of an olive branch by hoping I'd bet a winner or two at Sandown last week and reckoned it would be churlish of me not to acknowledge that.

Ditto Colin's views here - I too didn't agree, but Colin also writes material (not necessarily political) that does resonate with me too, so I ignore that with which I disagree and eagerly embrace that with which I do concur.

For me, this is trying to get along.

I do hope you reconsider, but will of course respect your decision if you don't.

Ian
 
Forums are for debating, not ignoring posts from those you deem as bad people or walking away.

Get debating I say.
 
With respect, we will all do as we please.

If Grasshopper chooses to leave, that's sad, but it's his prerogative.

If I choose to adopt a "no reply IS a reply" policy at times, that's my prerogative.

Experience has taught me that debate with individuals with entrenched views - possibly on subjects about which I might have entrenched views too - is futile and just causes conflict.

I will type words of disagreement where I feel there's constructive discussion to be had (as here, you seem a reasonable chap) but I reserve the right to simply ignore material I don't agree with too.
 
Course you do, Ian. I understand.

I just feel in the end the quality of the forum suffers because there's not enough room for healthy debate.

Agree to disagree and all that, if possible.

I hate to see well known and established posters like Grasshopper leaving because of an admittedly provocative statement from GeordieColin. I'd rather Grass just destroyed his argument, rather than left the forum.

As for Sunshine, he was just winding people up wasn't he.
 
Oh 'hopper do stay, I was looking forward to you replying - with a liberal sprinkling of anglo-saxon oaths - to my request for the Jock contingent here to offer views on the SNP and the fat man I know you hold in such high esteem;)

Oldtimer ain't a newbie, he was in Wolf's clothing here, and in various other guises on TRF

Cranks, nutjobs and trolls are part and parcel of the wacky world wide web: I just smirk
 
Yeah, keep at it Grassy - just concentrate on the racing 🏇 . I must admit my heart fell when I saw the Election 2024 thread go up - politics threads never end well. As Ian rightly points out, trying to engender a constructive debate in the midst of entrenched views is as futile as Canute trying to stop the sea coming in.
 
Most have a political view of some sort or another but imo elections are best enjoyed as in-running sporting events - hence my periodic market updates using Betfair Exchange as my guide.
 
Well that was an interesting Question Time.
Some sensible stuff mixed in with some drivel.
 
Using the average of the latest BBC poll of polls and an online election predictor, I am currently getting a Labour majority of 316 with the Tories reduced to fewer than 100 seats.

This has been the result the last two days.

I shall continue to update this regularly until Polling Day.
 
Grasshopper said:
It’s a shame to see that the forum relaunch has made space for such conspiracy theory cranks and halfwits.

This drivel comes not long after some other newbie twat was boosting for Katie Hopkins worldview.

This place is fu*cked, and I’m checking out.

Good luck to all the good guys. They know who they are.
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C'mon, GH, you've put up with my conspiracy theories and halfwit drivel for years. You can ride these new ones out. By the time the new NH season [proper] comes round again they'll be long gone.
 
That nut job conspiracy post was in response to my response to you, Grass. You just cannot take a response like that seriously; so because I’m old enough now, I ignore such shite.
 
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