Election 2024

Ian_Davies said:
I'm no fan of either Nigel Farage nor his imo divisive politics, but I disapprove of both the milkshake incident and the social media rejoicing in some quarters.

Maybe I'm getting older, but social media politics seems more childish and tribal by the day.

That said, there is a rumour it was a Farage-organised stunt and before hearing said gossip when I saw footage of the incident I must admit the body language and bemused facial expression of the young lady perpetrating the act didn't project "political activist" to me, but might have projected the message: "I'm a local girl with no interest in politics whatsoever, and someone just paid me a few hundred quid to do this."

I could be way off - it's been known! - but it will be mildly interesting to see if any more background information about her emerges.
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Well, I wasn't exactly right, but I wasn't entirely wrong either!

The lady in question apparently describes herself as a Labour supporter, but I suspect publicity aimed at driving more revenue to her online business was her prime motivation here.
 
I will not be voting this year as both Rickshaw Shitsack and Shear Starver are just two cheeks from the same backside and Farage was just shit out from between them.
 
The worst value bet on 'the machine' is 100 Reform to win most seats...surely?

Should be out at 1000 with the Lib Dems and Greens IMVHO
 
By laying 100 you're tying up your money for four weeks to make less than 1% interest after commission and in this dystopian nightmare we seem to be living in nowadays you never know the rabid populist might just gain momentum.

So I agree, but I won't be laying any 110.
 
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As you say, no point laying plenty to return a mars bar

Amazingly it's now 95 with not insignificant orders up to 120. Daft and/or scary

The Euro-elections are taking place over the next few days with far-right groups forecast to do well...we'll see
 
Ian_Davies said:
With 30 days until Polling Day and following tonight's TV debate which a snap YouGov poll had Sunak winning 51%-49%....

Most Seats
Labour 1.03
Conservatives 40

Overall Majority
Labour 1.07
No Overall Majority 18
Conservatives 55

Source: "The Machine."
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With 27 days until Polling Day, Labour have eased ever so slightly for an Overall Majority ....

Most Seats
Labour 1.03
Conservatives 38
Reform UK 90

Overall Majority
Labour 1.08
No Overall Majority 19
Conservatives 65
Reform UK 180

Source: "The Machine"
 
reet hard said:
Party politics stink.
The main aim of the hustiings is to pour scorn on the opposition,like kids falling out in the playground.
Hopefully,one day they'll disappear, and MP's will do what they're paid to do - the best for their constituency and country.
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If only. My mother said politics died when John Smith died. She may have had a point. Blair for all his faults did actually do a lot for the working class.
 
Still can't quite believe the polls and I'd say given how much labour has to overcome I'd say they are on for around 370 to 380 seats. Still a massive majority but the farage effect is way over-estimated IMHO. On the day they will be behind the lib dems. Then the twat will disappear this time for good hopefully.
 
A lot of my interest in politics died the day John Smith died.

He was the last politician I genuinely liked and respected.

Essentially moderate, but more radical than Tony Blair.

Hilarious too - no one made me laugh like Smith did when taking down John Major's government.

He was so witty even Tory frontbenchers like Michael Heseltine laughed too.

 
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Ian_Davies said:
With 27 days until Polling Day, Labour have eased ever so slightly for an Overall Majority ....

Most Seats
Labour 1.03
Conservatives 38
Reform UK 90

Overall Majority
Labour 1.08
No Overall Majority 19
Conservatives 65
Reform UK 180

Source: "The Machine"
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With 26 days until Polling Day, Labour are back to 1.07 for an Overall Majority, but little other change other than the potential momentum of Reform UK causing them to shorten in the Most Seats market ....

Most Seats
Labour 1.03
Conservatives 44
Reform UK 75

Overall Majority
Labour 1.07
No Overall Majority 21
Conservatives 80
Reform UK 190

Conservatives to lose 201+ Seats: 1.15

Source: "The Machine"

Latest (7th June) BBC Poll Tracker
Labour 44%
Conservatives 23%
Reform UK 13%
Liberal Democrats 10%
Green 6%

Electoral Calculus User-Defined
Seats Prediction Based On Above
Labour 497
Conservatives 72
Liberal Democrats 43
Green 2
Reform UK 1

Labour Majority: 344
 
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I have noticed a lot of distrust of Starmer among people that I know, even those that I know are strong traditional Labour supporters.
I'm not keen on him either to be honest and would prefer Angela Rayner as leader.
 
Cards on the table, I've voted Labour all my life but I see the need for the party to appeal to the middle ground, as Blair did so successfully until the power corrupted him.

But for all Starmer might be the most intelligent politician in the country, he is entirely unconvincing as a politician and that worries the bejaysus out of me.
 
I am clinging to the hope that Starmer is a pragmatist and he thinks he needs to appear to be one thing in order to get elected, but then actually be another thing in order to make a positive difference to most people's lives once governing.

I also think he senses an opportunity to put the Conservatives out of power for a generation and he will cross the bridge of facing a rising Populist force like Reform UK when he gets to it.

Like racing, politics is a game of opinion, but I think it's absolutely inaccurate to view Sunak and Starmer (hence Conservative and Labour) as two cheeks of the same backside.

Anyway, whatever his true nature, once in power, Starmer will come under a lot of pressure to be more radical than currently looks like being the case.
 
But Angela Rayner! Christ.

Was amusing last night watching Penny M talk to her like a naughty schoolchild.
 
It Angela Rayner was a Conservative, many Conservatives would celebrate the "journey" she has been on in life in order to become Deputy Leader of a major political party.

But as she isn't, some Conservatives, who in all probability enjoyed a far more privileged start in life to her, use Rayner's difficult early life and socio-economic background as sticks to beat her with on social media.

I find it a bit distasteful tbh, particularly when the source of the scorn for her is public schoolboys, born with silver spoons in their mouths.

Anyway, I've a feeling Rayner, not Mordaunt, who tbf was not from a privileged background herself, will be the one who is laughing on 5th July.
 
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This is politics. A free for all. She's as guilty as all of them for giving it out.

Starmer may have his faults, but surely more leader like than the gobby one.
 
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