Election 2024

Oh for the day when it will be compulsory for you to have to vote (it will not happen in my lifetime). Obviously there should be a "none of the above" box as an option.
 
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Utter prick. Did Lynch think that him and his mate Corbyn would have a say in how the UK would enact Brexit? Did he not think that it would actually be their avowed enemies, the Tories, who could carry out Brexit exactly how it suited them?

It’s always a good tactic to look around you, and see who is supporting the same causes as yourself.
 
Ian_Davies said:
Four days to go to Polling Day, and the latest updated poll-of-poll numbers this morning suggest things are getting worse again for the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats might well end up as Official Opposition (seats based, not popular vote based). The Tories need the Reform UK bubble to burst as it's marginal in so many areas, but, while the betting is factoring that in, any collapse in support for Farage has yet to show up in the polls.

Betting

Most Seats
Labour 1.01
Reform UK 130
Conservatives 200

Overall Majority
Labour 1.04
No Overall Majority 26
Conservatives 150
Reform UK 180

Conservative Seats
50-99 2.12
100-149 4 (3/1)
0-49 7.4
150-199 9.4

Conservatives to lose 201+ Seats: 1.14

Labour Seats
450-499 2.18
400-449 3
350-399 8.2
500+ 24

Source: "The Machine"

Latest (29th June) BBC Poll Tracker
Labour 40%
Conservatives 20%
Reform UK 16%
Liberal Democrats 11%
Green 6%

Electoral Calculus User-Defined
Seats Prediction Based On Above
Labour 467
Liberal Democrats 72
Conservatives 61
Reform UK 6
Green 3

Labour Majority: 284
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Three days to go to Polling Day and I have a theory: The Conservative vote is unlikely to go any lower than 20% now as that 20% represents the Tory hardcore, those who will vote Conservative come Hell or High Water, come early D-Day exit or betting scandal. But I also think the Reform UK vote will hold up - the 17% defies the Farage Putin remarks and who cares if some candidates are suspect if you are a suspect voter yourself? And that 17% might yet still do the Tories a lot of damage come Thursday night where there could be a record number of recounts, that many seats are so finely poised.

Betting

Most Seats
Labour 1.01
Reform UK 140
Conservatives 210

Overall Majority
Labour 1.04
No Overall Majority 30
Reform UK 210
Conservatives 260

Conservative Seats
50-99 2.16
100-149 3.45
150-199 8.2
0-49 9.2

Conservatives to lose 201+ Seats: 1.14

Labour Seats
450-499 2.22
400-449 3.2
350-399 7.6
500+ 21

Source: "The Machine"

Latest (1st July) BBC Poll Tracker
Labour 40%
Conservatives 20%
Reform UK 17%
Liberal Democrats 11%
Green 6%

Electoral Calculus User-Defined
Seats Prediction Based On Above
Labour 470
Liberal Democrats 71
Conservatives 61
Reform UK 7
Green 3

Labour Majority: 290
 
Jeeeez, I really do hope these polls do reflect how people will vote.

For the first time since Blair's first win I intend to sit up to watch the results come in. I might even get some beer in.
 
As you may have noticed, DO, I am a boring numbers geek and the remarkable thing for me is how little the polls have shifted in the last six weeks.

The MRP polls involve ten times the usual number asked and look at individual seat-by-seat cases - and the betting mirrors the polls.

How might the actual votes on the day be different in reality?

Well, me and a betting friend were discussing this and we think the only way they can be wrong is if people are still too ashamed to admit to pollsters they will vote Tory, regardless of what's happened these past five years.

As my friend says, any normal well adjusted, moral, person would rather admit to stealing cat food off a particularly cute and furry blind kitten than admit to voting for the utter shower who have been the worst government of my lifetime, but if your family always voted Tory and you value defending your wealth ("nest egg" is the way the obnoxious far right Andrew Neil cutifies it) over living in a country where no one lives in abject poverty you might not want to admit to being a Grade A, 24-carat, "See You Next Tuesday," but you'll quietly vote Tory anyway.

I personally think voting Tory is such a heinous notion it's akin to visiting the dark web, but my friend may have a point.

Anyway, my friend is going to bet on 100-149 seats, the second favourite and not 50-99 seats, the market leader.

My view is we will see a record number of recounts Thursday night, and there are a three-figure number of seats where the Tories may or may not cling on, depending on how much the Reform vote stabs them in the back, handing victory to Labour or the Liberal Democrats.
 
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That's the well-attested 'Shy Tory' category, first identified - I believe - after the 1992 election which Labour were forecast to win. They'll be even shyer this time and in the privacy of the polling booth the pencil might hover rather longer but will eventually be drawn to the magic word 'Conservative'

On 'the machine', the 'Most seats without Labour' market has Tories 1.16 and Liberal 7.2 which - taking the Electoral Calculus figures literally - would make the latter's odds attractive; but the various polls forecasting party seats over this longest of six weeks have been very volatile, so I'll resist

I have a splendid climbing red rose in my garden which is in full bloom. A big button hole for the walk to the polling station and a bottle of rich red rioja for the long Thursday night Friday morning shift

Genuinely looking forward to it with much anticipation :D
 
Desert Orchid said:
Jeeeez, I really do hope these polls do reflect how people will vote.

For the first time since Blair's first win I intend to sit up to watch the results come in. I might even get some beer in.
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DO - I too will be watching but how do you think it will be reported tonight given that there will be a delay in the counting of up to 25% of votes cast (because a large number of voting papers have not even arrived at voters' addresses yet)?
 
2017diary said:
DO - I too will be watching but how do you think it will be reported tonight given that there will be a delay in the counting of up to 25% of votes cast (because a large number of voting papers have not even arrived at voters' addresses yet)?
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I’m sure it says on my voting paper that I don’t need to take it to the polling station: just photo ID. I’ll just check it….) Did you mean postal votes?
 
Also, if you arranged for a postal vote but didn’t need to use it you can just take it to the polling station on election day.
 
I've done my own research to predict the final result by awarding the seat (or half a seat if too close to call) to the favourites in the bet365 odds for each constituency.

Essentially, I predict:

455 Labour (range 435 to 475)
83 Conservative (78-88)
69 LibDem (65-73)
2 Reform UK (1-3)
41 Other (37-45)
 
I've only been dipping in and out of the BBC website and TV coverage over the last few says and I'm genuinely concerned at the pro-Sunak coverage.

Every about Starmer is negative or passive:

Starmer quizzed...
Starmer faces questions...
Starmer grilled..

etc

Sunak is all positive/active:

Sunak says he'll...
Sunak promises...
Sunak claims...

All very subtle.
 
Pro Sunak, are you kidding me? You are seeing problems where there aren't any. They are going to get smashed!

Would help if Starmer actually knew what a woman was though. Christ.
 
moehat said:
I’m sure it says on my voting paper that I don’t need to take it to the polling station: just photo ID. I’ll just check it….) Did you mean postal votes?
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Yes, postal votes. It's estimated in some quarters that there may be as many as 25% of voters using a postal vote.
 
The Sun will be backing Labour for the first time since 2005 on its front page tomorrow.

The endorsement isn't as important as it was in the pre-internet era, and they basically just want to be on the winning side then claim they made it happen, but Labour would still rather have them on board than against them.
 
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