Fighting Fifth Hurdle 1st December

Contrast the jumping styles of BD and Samcro and you see the difference between them.
The remainder were beaten a long long way .
Whatever ratings DO gives the race it was visually a superb performance from the winner who looked as big as a bull by his standards.
Samcro connections should go chasing and leave Apple's Jade for Champion hurdle imo.
 
I still think from a betting perspective there are major over reactions to what quantifies no more than a piece of work. I'm not detracting from Boover as he's a bloody good horse and probably still the most likely winner of the Champion hurdle this year. The performance at the weekend is completely irrelevant. There will be plenty of opposition come March that will give him a decent race and could quite possibly turn him over I'd have at least 4 that would be in the right ball park who could possibly challenge him and that's without anything else emerging. If they do persist with the Champion Hurdle target ( not that I think they should ) but Samcro will make a better fist of it than he did on Saturday that's for sure not that I think he could win but he'd certainly fare better in a proper race than a jog and sprint.

I remember people getting all excited when Faugheen reappeared last season with a big performance and then over the season it didn't pan out. A long time between now and the festival and sure enough it might well end with the Champ notching his Hatrick but it won't be without a fight and anyone who thinks he's drastically improved based on Saturdays performance well that's not even worth talking about Imo.
 
Who are these four horses that can put it up to Buveur D’Air, if he is in the same form as Saturday, Danny?

He’s already cuffed the best of last season’s novices, and I reckon the shortlist is probably no longer than two; namely Melon and Laurina, and that latter needs to improve plenty to give him a race (not impossible).

Outside this pair, who is left?

I don’t put Boov on as high a pedastal as Kauto Abu, but the Fighting Fifth run is probably the first tine I’ve been completely convinced about him, and he will take a lot of stopping, if he gets to the CH in one piece.
 
Agree entirely grassy. Saturday was the first time I was fully convinced with Buv too. That was by far Samcro's best (and it appears now his only) chance of beating him.

I'm 100% convinced that Buv was well below par in last year's CH. His stable mate WHAD was sick last year and pulled from the festival. The stable were concerned about Buvs health/fitness being in the box next to him. He also had a wind op over the summer which appears to have done no harm anyway... And Saturday was his first run of the season too, most likely only 80% fit.

I really don't think Melon and certainly not Mick Jazz will get near as close to him in 2019 CH, if he turns up in the same form as Saturday. Laurina (who has it all to prove as Nick mentions) is the only possible contender I can see at this point.
 
I'm just amazed anyone takes Saturday's form seriously. I was convinced Buv was top class after his first Champion Hurdle win . Saturdays fighting fifth means nothing and was as said no more than a piece of work with the impressive turn of foot that he's always had.

The fact I was prepared to back Bleu et rouge in the without market sums up what I expected of the opposition on Saturday...not much.
 
I personally think Saturday's race was run exactly to form. Samcro won all it's 2m races at odds on if I remember correctly, when expected to win against mediocre opposition. Even when it won a grade 1 at Leopardstown at 4/6 the opposition wasn't great. Then when it ran at Cheltenham over 2m5f I thought it was very impressive beating black ops. Since then 3 races over 2mile and not a win. He met the real deal over 2mile on Saturday and was destroyed. I'll never ever back Samcro over 2m or 2m1f unless it's a confidence booster. Someone mentioned the Arkle Chase as a possible route, I don't know whats even in the race but I wouldn't back it. 2m4f or 2m5f for me. But be interesting to see which route they take.
 
Danny said:
I'm just amazed anyone takes Saturday's form seriously. I was convinced Buv was top class after his first Champion Hurdle win . Saturdays fighting fifth means nothing and was as said no more than a piece of work with the impressive turn of foot that he's always had.

The fact I was prepared to back Bleu et rouge in the without market sums up what I expected of the opposition on Saturday...not much.
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Not sure you were watching the same thing as the rest of us Danny. You seem insistent on referring to the Fighting Fifth as a racecourse gallop, when it was anything but. For starters, pre race it was the best renewal on paper for a long long time.

And make no mistake, Samcro ran his race. He was hard fit, jumped well and ran as good a race as he could. Granted I don't believe he is best suited as a 2 mile hurdler myself, but he is the reigning Neptune/Ballymore winner and the distance he left SB trailing behind has to be considered (regardless of how fully tuned up he may or may not have been - once Samcro upped the pace SB couldn't go with them and absolutely couldn't handle jumping at that speed).

There's multiple form lines through Summerville boy, Kalashnikov, Samcro, Melon, Mick Jazz that all lead me to have a strong opinion that Buv is better than ever.
 
Danny said:
I still think from a betting perspective there are major over reactions to what quantifies no more than a piece of work. I'm not detracting from Boover as he's a bloody good horse and probably still the most likely winner of the Champion hurdle this year. The performance at the weekend is completely irrelevant. There will be plenty of opposition come March that will give him a decent race and could quite possibly turn him over I'd have at least 4 that would be in the right ball park who could possibly challenge him and that's without anything else emerging. If they do persist with the Champion Hurdle target ( not that I think they should ) but Samcro will make a better fist of it than he did on Saturday that's for sure not that I think he could win but he'd certainly fare better in a proper race than a jog and sprint.

I remember people getting all excited when Faugheen reappeared last season with a big performance and then over the season it didn't pan out. A long time between now and the festival and sure enough it might well end with the Champ notching his Hatrick but it won't be without a fight and anyone who thinks he's drastically improved based on Saturdays performance well that's not even worth talking about Imo.
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It’s opinions like this that I hinge on for BD going off at some sort half decent price for a Champion Hurdle. For the third year in a row now I’ve been backing Buveur D’Air throughout the Summer in ante-posts at generous prices but still on the Tuesday of the Festival I like to get really seriously involved, knowing the horse has made it there safe & sound. BD opened at 4/5 with one Bookmaker on course last March and I made hay that day. I just don’t comprehend how underestimated this horse is still, even after Newcastle.

Danny, you describe last Saturday as ‘completely irrelevant’ but I find it hard to comprehend how a demolition job - on the bridle - of 2 leading competitors fancied to take the champs title away as irrelevant? Two of the best pointers in the Supreme & the Ballymore for novices going into open company destroyed. All this in the common knowledge that BD would come on massively for the run as alluded to regularly in this thread and by his trainer in post race comments. This win is very much relevant in my eyes. I mean I fully take on board a canter around against Ravin Black of Irving but last Saturday was a serious race on paper........before the Buv read the script.


Secondly, can you name the ‘plenty of opposition’ who will put it up to him come March if he makes it there safely? I think you have 4 suggestions to turn him over?!!

You mention Faugheen and his fall from grace last year. Is there any merit in pointing out that Faugheen was just returning from a serious injury when he flopped at Leopardstown on the back of his Morgiana win?


Saturday was the first time Barry Geraghty, who gave an exhibition of riding last Saturday, let the Buv win by a distance. It’s usually a case of stalk and pounce with Geraghty but last Saturday after crashing through that last hurdle he allowed the chance to stretch his legs. Whether that means he’s drastically improved from his breathing op or he could’ve won by as much as he wanted to any time he wanted to, well I strongly think the latter is the case.

The horse is a machine. Some of us have known this for a long tome. Last Saturday some people only started to realise it.



Danny I noticed from your previous answer that you didn’t think much of last Saturday’s opposition, hence you backing Blue et Rouge. Would you be so kind so to name the 4 horses you feel can put it up to the dual champ next March?


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I'm currently at work Kauto so I'll try and respond when I have a little more time.

I would say though you seem to have put me down as a buv doubter which is wrong. I thought he'd win last year's champion hurdle from start of the season to the finish. I don't tend to play short prices very often so stuck to the without market for bets. I think he's the most likely winner this year. I don't think his current price represents value 3 and half months away from the event.

What he did on Saturday was completely and utterly irrelevant other than show he's still in good order.

The rest I'll try and get back to by tomorrow.
 
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Danny said:
I'm currently at work Kauto so I'll try and respond when I have a little more time.

I would say though you seem to have put me down as a buv doubter which is wrong. I thought he'd win last year's champion hurdle from start of the season to the finish. I don't tend to play short prices very often so stuck to the without market for bets. I think he's the most likely winner this year. I don't think his current price represents value 3 and half months away from the event.

What he did on Saturday was completely and utterly irrelevant other than show he's still in good order.

The rest I'll try and get back to by tomorrow.
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I don’t have you down as a doubter at all Danny. I saw where you thought he’d win last years CH. I’d imagine BD is right now the only odds on shot for any Cheltenham race without looking but that’s clearly reflected on his dominance over the 2m field these past few years.

I totally disagree with you however in saying what he done last Saturday was irrelevant. If he’d beaten a Ravin Black type of character in, say a Contenders Hurdle at Sandown, it would be irrelevant but to beat both Supreme & Neptune winners hard held can not be seen as irrelevant.

As I said previously, by some folk this horse is dammed when he does & dammed when he doesn’t.


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edgt said:
just wondering when did the Fighting Fifth Hurdle last cause 140 posts on this or any forum ?
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Surely the fact that it has done just that means the form is debatable?

90% of what I do is - I like to think - based on as dispassionate a reading of the form as I can make.

My best rating for BDA is 169 (from the season before last). I stated last year I felt he wasn't running to that level. That 169 is a very good figure. However, I'd conclude that Annie Power, 165 in 2016 with the allowance, was better. She was arguably better, too, than Faugheen (170?) in 2015 but would have struggled against Hurricane Fly who was a mid-170s animal.

While BDA was visually impressive on Saturday - I do not doubt that - I want to wait to see how things pan out in the next couple of months before allowing myself to give it a mark to back that up. If he was only 80% fit it would suggest he has indeed improved for his wind op.

However, I do stand by my original belief that Summerville Boy was an awful long way below his Supreme form and that Vision Des Flos wasn't asked to be competitive on the day, so BDA has effectively dismissed Samcro. The RP comment says Samcro "led at ordinary gallop". Could Kennedy have got the fractions wrong? Assuming Samcro is a 2m 5f horse (as is Vision Des Flos) how realistic would it have been to expect Samcro to beat BDA for late pace?

We need our champions. They get the pulse quickening. BDA may well be one but for me the figures say he is merely the best of a largely moderate cohort.

Edit - there's a chance I may end up with a rating for Apple's Jade yesterday that puts her in the same ball park as Annie Power. That looked a proper race but I haven't crunched any numbers for it.
 
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I don't get how anyone cannot be taken by Buveir on Saturday. They were every bullish about SB's chances at the weekend and he was beaten a country mile. It's not Samcro's optimum trip but he was also swept aside.
A faster pace may suit Samcro better in March but then you'd expect it to also suit a dual champion hurdle winner too.
Buveir got the job done in March, chuck in the fact that it was rank ground and he's had a wind op and you can certainly see another huge step up on that performance.
Of the opposition Laurina is the only one you can make a case for IMO, as Melon was massively flattered in March as nothing he had done previously had suggested a Champion Hurdle winner in waiting, plus I think he's a bit soft.
 
And all that from the man who told me Brain Power would win the Champion Hurdle :lol:

Would make you want to cry.


Annie Power clocked one of the fastest times ever in a Champion Hurdle. Plus from 3 out she clocked a time on good to soft 2sec10.0 faster than Hurricane Fly did on good ground.

Her overall time was 3.45.10 Hurricane Fly Good to Sift 3m 53.71s one of the slowest of all time on good ground and 3 seconds slower than Buveur Dair recorded on Good to soft in 2017

To say she would have struggled against anything with that allowance is a joke.

If ever there was a reason to stop the mare's allowance it was Annie.

Annie Power ended up on 170+ the last time I looked they rated Apples Jade 158 you might neede the Forth Road b\Bridge contruction company to help you with that one
 
tiggers1972 said:
I don't get how anyone cannot be taken by Buveir on Saturday. They were every bullish about SB's chances at the weekend and he was beaten a country mile. It's not Samcro's optimum trip but he was also swept aside.
A faster pace may suit Samcro better in March but then you'd expect it to also suit a dual champion hurdle winner too.
Buveir got the job done in March, chuck in the fact that it was rank ground and he's had a wind op and you can certainly see another huge step up on that performance.
Of the opposition Laurina is the only one you can make a case for IMO, as Melon was massively flattered in March as nothing he had done previously had suggested a Champion Hurdle winner in waiting, plus I think he's a bit soft.
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Give him a chance he's only 11 from 12 over hurdles (wasn't off in one of them) Won 2 Champion Hurdles, 1 Aintree Hurdle and 5 Champion Hurdle trials.:lol:

Don't worry we still have the handicappers like Brain Power John Constable's and Co to come where we will be told horse "B" because he gave 12lbs to a rag with 3 legs he's good value for the Champion Hurdle...
 
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Tanlic said:
And all that from the man who told me Brain Power would win the Champion Hurdle :lol:

Would make you want to cry.
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Reminder Tanlic: The grown up convention here is to play the ball and not the man. (With the exception of that other racist numpty on the Brexit thread. (S) he is fair game.)
 
tiggers1972 said:
They were every bullish about SB's chances at the weekend and he was beaten a country mile.
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I've no idea how bullish they were going into the race but I was certainly very hopeful that if he was going to beat BDA it would be first time up. I jot down notes immediately after races (very occasionally during) and one thing I noted was that I was not happy with SB after the first couple of flights. I hoped his umping would improve but if anything it got worse, so much so that I ended up checking to see if Fehily wasn't riding. It's unlike him to get a horse to meet so many flights wrong.

I've had one look back at the Supreme but I want another look. Apart from the serious mistake at the last, I don't think he made any other mistakes so his round of jumping at Newcastle was, to me, shocking. The trainer has since written of the performance, saying he disappointed first time up last year and "maybe that's just him" were, I believe, his conclusion.

But there is no doubt for me that BDA looked the part on the day.
 
an capall said:
Reminder Tanlic: The grown up convention here is to play the ball and not the man. (With the exception of that other racist numpty on the Brexit thread. (S) he is fair game.)
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Water and duck's back and all that. One of the joys of the forum is knowing that when you post something and someone you have on ignore jumps in with his tuppence worth their time and energy in doing so is time and energy they'll never get back.
 
an capall said:
Reminder Tanlic: The grown up convention here is to play the ball and not the man. (With the exception of that other racist numpty on the Brexit thread. (S) he is fair game.)
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OTHER RACIST NUMPTY??? Let me get this straight...I am not to attack anyone personally but you can attack 2 people? That seems fair :)

Having not slept through every English class anyone reading that would assume racist number 1 must be DO as I am the accused attacker.

Could this be why I am still trying to get through the rest of that Mick O'Toole article :cool:
 
Desert Orchid said:
Edit - there's a chance I may end up with a rating for Apple's Jade yesterday that puts her in the same ball park as Annie Power. That looked a proper race but I haven't crunched any numbers for it.
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Just as a matter of interest, how literally are BDA's fans prepared to take the Apple's Jade form?

I accept we're talking about races at different distances but the principal is the same surely?

https://www.racingpost.com/results/182/fairyhouse/2018-12-02/716274

If we take the winner out of the equation, haven't Supa and Limini run very close to their ratings? Hasn't Baupame run only a few pounds higher than his? Farclas is only a couple of lengths behind Baupame having been rated only a pound lower. Doesn't that seem solid enough?

So the only flies in the ointment are a) the proximity to the placed horses of the 142-rated Early Doors and b) the huge winning margin.

What's to say ED hasn't improved? He holds a Grade 1 entry later in the month, doesn't he?

So beating Supa and Lim by 20 lengths+ is just an impossibility, therefore we ignore the result.

But hang on, BDA's form with Samcro has to be taken literally, doesn't it?

(Just playing devil's advocate, you understand.)
 
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Somerville Boy made a hash of the second last as well as the last in the Supreme. It left us wondering how far he could have won without the mistakes, but it also made us wonder whether his jumping will always be suspect when the heat is on.
 
Yes. It was hard to see how well he took the first flight as he was in a crowd. He kind of ballooned the second but was better over the next few without being slick. I'd forgotten how bad a mistake it was two out; the one at the last was bad enough in a race of that magnitude.

But considering at Cheltenham he recovered to beat a very gutsy type in Kalshnikov, starting to go away, there was nothing like that kind of spirit in whatever token effort was made to get to Vision Des Flos the other day.
 
Logic is a funny thing. A fair few are prepared to say well thats that Samcro is done for, he's not a 2 miler because Buv has swept him aside with ease on Saturday in a race run at a plod of a gallop. Now I'm not a big Samcro fan In fact I spent half of last season trying to get him beat and the other half praying he'd run in the Supreme after some cheeky NRNB abuse. However I'd say Saturdays form proves zero. For those who are prepared to apply the logic that Buv swept aside the Supreme Winner and the Ballymore winner on the day should also be prepared to say that Bristol De mai swept aside Might Bite and Native River so that's the first and second from the Gold cup and that Apples Jade is now 20L better than the horse that won the Irish Champion hurdle.

All as ridiculous suggestions as each other IMO.

I was asked for my list of 4 that are in the right ball bark to mount a challenge because I'd flippantly made a comment as such. Well I hadn't even really considered the already mentioned Laurina but I suppose she could be anything probably not but who am I to doubt a Mullins mare if hes anything like Annie Power or Quevaga then she should certainly be throwing her hat in the ring although it does make you wonder what Mullins is feeding his mares. Someones already thrown Melon out there, ran Buv close last year and was slightly hampered in the process. You could even possibly say Mick Jazz got withing 3 lengths and produced his best ever figure in doing so is it beyond the realms of possibilty that he could improve a couple of lengths in a season ? But thats a more telling point. People here including myself to some degree think the Giggistown boys/ Elliot are mad for pursuing a Champion Hurdle campaign with Samcro. That's probably mostly on my part at least because when I wanted them to make the late switch to the supreme they were insisting that he was a 3 mile chaser in the making and they seem to have had a sudden turn around. So they're idiots who don't know what they are doing ? Well that statement is bloody unlikely ! Elliot imo is a training genius and I'm going to hazard a guess that the people at the head of Giggistown aren't complete and utter muppets either. If they say Champion Hurdle and remain firm to that then that's good enough for me. The Punchestown champion hurdle at the back end of last season I have a solid figure for Super Sundae a 3 length winner from Wicklow brave who had held My tent or yours at the same meeting the previous year gives the form the correct look. Both Samcro and Melon were travelling menacingly when falling 2 out and I'm fairly sure they'd have at least gone close and Samcro certainly didn't look short of speed that day in a race run at a true gallop. If anyone thinks he was running to the same level as Saturday may want to consider laying down the crack pipe and must with this tangled logic presuming that Bristol de mai is the best 3 miler in the country. Of course the Might Bite and Native River fans will run to their defence as they bloody well should and there will be no shortage of Bristol de mai only runs well at Haydock remarks ....and to that I'd say congratulations! you've now started to take other things into consideration other than beaten distances.

Name 4 ? I'd go as far as to say if the top lot in the betting turned up it'd be interesting. Laurina, Melon, Samcro, Supersundae, Apples Jade, Min. So you might make the argument quite rightly that soem of those will have other targets but I was amongst various others who play the guessing games of where horses will end up and I'm usually bloody wrong. It'd certainly be a race I'd be inerested in and I'm sure Buv wouldn't get things all his own way amongst that lot. As much as Tanlic mocks the likes of me and Des for suggesting handicappers it is worth considering that sometimes horses do progress from handicaps to run well or even win champion hurdles, Rooster Booster I suppose the obvious one, Valiramix would have been another if memory serves I'm sure he came up the handicap route and perhap Kyhber Kim make a decent fist of it one year. I'd certainly throw Sharjah out there also as a contender and what might be considered is there might have been plenty of novices or last years juveniles who never put there best foot forward due to unusually soft and heavy ground all season long

Even if they all turned up I still actually despite my protests think Buv would win but I'd still protest that Saturdays form is irrelevant other than showing he still has a pulse. Maybe Samcro and Summerville boy never run a decent race again. We've all known talented horses that for some reason or another never reproduced form or lost there way that's a regular occurrence and a strong possibility but lets not reduce Samcro or Summerville boy to what they did on Saturday. We know Summerville boy could have improved a lot of things when he won the Supreme he didn't hurdle well e.t.c but a common comparison of the times would tell you that he's not a million miles behind Buv in terms of ability even if he was on Saturday.

I'm just trying to really present a balanced view. Yes Buv is the best hurdler in the country, the way he hurdles is a sight to behold he has a tremendous turn of foot which stops him being vulnerable as some champions have been in slow run races. He's also able to operate at true Gr1 pace. Imo he is the complete package, however he's not unbeatable and come March he will face a challenge as all Champions do, or they just simply wouldn't be Champions I for one hope he completes his Hatrick this year but I'd hope that its not because he's 1/5 and nothing else has turned up.


As you like.
 
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Desert Orchid said:
Just as a matter of interest, how literally are BDA's fans prepared to take the Apple's Jade form?

I accept we're talking about races at different distances but the principal is the same surely?

https://www.racingpost.com/results/182/fairyhouse/2018-12-02/716274

If we take the winner out of the equation, haven't Supa and Limini run very close to their ratings? Hasn't Baupame run only a few pounds higher than his? Farclas is only a couple of lengths behind Baupame having been rated only a pound lower. Doesn't that seem solid enough?

So the only flies in the ointment are a) the proximity to the placed horses of the 142-rated Early Doors and b) the huge winning margin.

What's to say ED hasn't improved? He holds a Grade 1 entry later in the month, doesn't he?

So beating Supa and Lim by 20 lengths+ is just an impossibility, therefore we ignore the result.

But hang on, BDA's form with Samcro has to be taken literally, doesn't it?

(Just playing devil's advocate, you understand.)
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Apologies D.O I hadn't read your post and I've sort of reiterated the point, I was pushed for time or at least I thought I was and was just responding to Kauto and Grass I think it was from yesterday and I've since read back through and noticed you'd beaten me to the punch on this.
 
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