First Season Sires

Sequoyah said:
The difference in % stakes winners is statistically significant at the 0.0585 level. The standard threshold for statistical significance is the 0.05 level, so to all intents and purposes, it would be considered statistically significant !
Click to expand...

Thank you, hadn't had a chance to run them and check
 
Miesque said:
You're missing the point slightly, Sheikh, it's the success from a relatively small subset of his progeny that makes the nick so impressive.



So a group of horses that represents only 6% of his offspring is responsible for nearly a quarter of his group one winners....that has to point to something!
Click to expand...

Nah ,didn't miss that point, just emboldened the piece which answered my question directly.
 
Sheikh said:
Nah ,didn't miss that point, just emboldened the piece which answered my question directly.
Click to expand...

We'll have to agree to disagree on that.

Sheikh said:
Very little/no profit for those breeders M. Out of mares with reasonable pedigrees. Do you think the breeders over covered or where there significant discounts ? what will happen to the stallions fees next year ?
Click to expand...

We weren't talking about profit for breeders...I believe that stats suggest 14% of yearlings sold show a paper profit not taking into account reductions on advertised stud fees or keep deals. That's a rather harrowing statistic, imo, about the profitability of breeding for sales.

I'd be surprised to see stallion fees reduce significantly next season - far more likely they'll stay static while the market "evens out" to the lower production rates.
 
Miesque said:
We'll have to agree to disagree on that.



We weren't talking about profit for breeders...I believe that stats suggest 14% of yearlings sold show a paper profit not taking into account reductions on advertised stud fees or keep deals. That's a rather harrowing statistic, imo, about the profitability of breeding for sales.

I'd be surprised to see stallion fees reduce significantly next season - far more likely they'll stay static while the market "evens out" to the lower production rates.
Click to expand...

I don't think we're disagreeing at all but no matter.......

Yes think the fees will stay roughly the same too.

14% Ouch :blink:
 
If you're looking at buying at the lower end of the Yearling market, today's TDN has a good article about the sales repository and vetting which is worth reading. It address the fact that in a significant number of cases "issues" which caused horses to be passed over never affected their racing careers. Monarchos, Vindication and Unbridled's Song are nice examples. Taylor Made are very candid in the piece on yearlings they've sold with issues.

TDN
 
Update on the table:



STALLION WINNERS–RUNNERS WINS RUNS 2ND 3RD 4TH WIN PRIZE TOTAL PRIZE
Dark Angel 19–55 35% 31 238 33 32 28 £149,060 £320,239
Dutch Art 21–37 57% 29 145 25 18 17 £191,957 £317,117
Excellent Art 12–37 32% 17 115 18 17 11 £103,736 £180,900
Red Clubs 21–57 37% 28 238 27 22 34 £105,864 £179,257
Strategic Prince 8–34 24% 10 108 10 10 6 £124,803 £179,074
Teofilo 9–29 31% 10 68 13 9 6 £117,658 £165,280
Amadeus Wolf 13–46 28% 18 177 15 26 21 £73,114 £119,259
Dylan Thomas 9–23 39% 10 63 9 7 8 £64,499 £110,679
Baltic King 5–14 36% 6 69 6 10 4 £16,721 £110,131
Lawman 8–21 38% 10 59 10 2 3 £47,995 £96,488
Hard Spun 4–8 50% 6 20 2 4 3 £50,277 £82,318
Jeremy 4–16 25% 4 53 6 7 7 £25,949 £65,314
Cockney Rebel 7–17 41% 10 75 11 11 7 £37,741 £54,997
Moss Vale 7–32 22% 11 78 5 5 5 £41,901 £53,740
Vital Equine 3–10 30% 5 41 6 5 5 £23,358 £40,180
Sir Percy 8–18 44% 9 59 3 15 7 £24,933 £40,174
Multiplex 5–14 36% 5 57 7 6 10 £13,634 £28,141
Three Valleys 5–31 16% 5 100 7 11 13 £11,933 £24,700
Heliostatic 3–4 75% 4 16 4 1 0 £13,609 £22,809
Notnowcato 5–15 33% 5 45 2 3 3 £15,655 £22,230
Echo Of Light 3–16 19% 3 45 2 6 1 £9,707 £18,454
Misu Bond 2–8 25% 5 33 6 2 4 £11,914 £17,037
Alkaadhem 1–1 100% 3 7 1 0 0 £15,091 £16,401
Authorized 2–13 15% 2 20 2 1 4 £7,804 £14,484
Rail Link 3–13 23% 3 30 0 1 3 £12,689 £13,765
Scat Daddy 1–2 50% 1 4 0 0 1 £8,922 £12,942
Jazil 1–4 25% 2 9 1 0 0 £7,763 £9,024
Any Given Saturday 1–3 33% 1 5 1 2 0 £4,399 £8,286
Windsor Knot 1–4 25% 1 17 2 4 1 £3,235 £7,420
Manduro 0–12 — 0 24 3 2 4 £0 £4,198
Stormy River 1–3 33% 1 6 0 1 1 £3,235 £3,831
Milk It Mick 0–6 — 0 22 1 1 2 £0 £3,075
Street Sense 0–2 — 0 6 1 1 1 £0 £2,502
Invasor 0–3 — 0 4 1 1 1 £0 £2,357
Teuflesberg 0–1 — 0 3 0 1 1 £0 £1,543
Orientor 0–3 — 0 4 0 0 2 £0 £519
Latent Heat 0–1 — 0 2 0 0 1 £0 £245
Primary 0–1 — 0 1 0 0 1 £0 £236
Arcadio 0–1 — 0 3 0 0 0 £0 £0
Scorpion 0–1 — 0 1 0 0 0 £0 £0
Istan 0–1 — 0 3 0 0 0 £0 £0
Daaher 0–1 — 0 1 0 0 0 £0 £0
Mountain High 0–1 — 0 1 0 0 0 £0 £0
Mustanfar 0–1 — 0 2 0 0 0 £0 £0


Sir Percy doing alright for one so unfashionably bred (so I have read) and for one who in some people's opinion was an unworthy Derby winner. Fee £6,000.
 
Latest table:


STALLION WINNERS–RUNNERS WINS RUNS 2ND 3RD 4TH WIN PRIZE TOTAL PRIZE
Dutch Art 22–40 55% 33 162 26 18 19 £235,298 £382,026
Dark Angel 21–58 36% 33 257 36 33 29 £155,228 £335,967
Red Clubs 23–60 38% 31 255 28 23 35 £142,877 £217,280
Strategic Prince 8–35 23% 10 117 11 10 7 £124,803 £199,302
Excellent Art 14–41 34% 19 130 19 17 12 £115,985 £195,256
Teofilo 10–33 30% 12 78 15 10 6 £126,714 £177,751
Amadeus Wolf 14–48 29% 19 195 17 28 22 £75,378 £125,706
Dylan Thomas 9–26 35% 10 72 9 9 9 £64,499 £123,756
Baltic King 5–14 36% 6 74 6 10 4 £16,721 £111,745
Lawman 8–22 36% 10 64 11 3 4 £47,995 £99,910
Hard Spun 4–9 44% 6 24 5 4 3 £50,277 £91,726
Scat Daddy 1–2 50% 2 5 0 0 1 £65,632 £69,652
Jeremy 4–17 24% 4 59 6 8 7 £25,949 £69,582
Sir Percy 8–19 42% 10 66 4 15 8 £34,271 £60,272
Moss Vale 7–34 21% 11 89 7 5 6 £41,901 £56,060
Cockney Rebel 7–17 41% 10 78 11 11 8 £37,741 £55,348
Heliostatic 3–4 75% 5 19 5 1 0 £32,890 £43,470
Vital Equine 4–10 40% 6 45 6 5 5 £25,946 £42,768
Three Valleys 5–32 16% 6 109 7 11 14 £17,755 £30,762
Multiplex 5–16 31% 5 63 8 6 11 £13,634 £30,175
Notnowcato 5–15 33% 5 47 3 3 4 £15,655 £24,130
Echo Of Light 3–17 18% 3 49 2 6 2 £9,707 £18,646
Authorized 3–15 20% 3 25 2 1 5 £11,038 £18,045
Misu Bond 2–8 25% 5 36 6 2 4 £11,914 £17,037
Alkaadhem 1–1 100% 3 8 1 0 0 £15,091 £16,401
Rail Link 3–14 21% 3 32 1 1 3 £12,689 £16,165
Jazil 2–4 50% 3 11 1 0 0 £10,739 £14,689
Any Given Saturday 1–3 33% 1 5 1 2 0 £4,399 £8,286
Windsor Knot 1–4 25% 1 18 2 4 2 £3,235 £7,613
Manduro 0–15 — 0 30 3 4 5 £0 £6,577
Stormy River 1–3 33% 1 8 0 1 2 £3,235 £4,072
Street Sense 0–3 — 0 8 1 2 2 £0 £3,233
Milk It Mick 0–6 — 0 22 1 1 2 £0 £3,075
Invasor 0–3 — 0 4 1 1 1 £0 £2,357
Teuflesberg 0–1 — 0 4 0 1 2 £0 £2,129
Latent Heat 0–1 — 0 3 1 0 1 £0 £1,232
Orientor 0–3 — 0 4 0 0 2 £0 £519
Primary 0–1 — 0 1 0 0 1 £0 £236
Arcadio 0–1 — 0 3 0 0 0 £0 £0
Mustanfar 0–1 — 0 2 0 0 0 £0 £0
Fantastic View 0–1 — 0 1 0 0 0 £0 £0
Scorpion 0–1 — 0 1 0 0 0 £0 £0
Istan 0–1 — 0 3 0 0 0 £0 £0
Mountain High 0–1 — 0 1 0 0 0 £0 £0
Daaher 0–1 — 0 1 0 0 0 £0 £0


This was the table in April:
STALLION WINNERS–RUNNERS WINS RUNS 2ND 3RD 4TH WIN PRIZE TOTAL PRIZE
Dark Angel 3–8 38% 3 10 3 1 0 £6,423 £11,025
Teofilo 1–1 100% 1 1 0 0 0 £10,112 £10,112
Dylan Thomas 1–1 100% 1 1 0 0 0 £7,733 £7,733
Amadeus Wolf 1–4 25% 1 4 0 2 0 £3,238 £3,884
Multiplex 1–3 33% 1 3 0 0 1 £3,562 £3,562
Red Clubs 1–5 20% 1 6 0 1 2 £1,943 £3,404
Dutch Art 1–3 33% 1 3 1 1 0 £2,047 £3,093

How many on here have a bet on this and who should be shouting for?
 
A cursory look at the economics of breeding / racing shows it to be an arse! if you are not a stallion owner you have no chance of making a bob!
 
The latest table from the RP site:


Top first-season sires
Print List
STALLION WINNERS–RUNNERS WINS RUNS 2ND 3RD 4TH WIN PRIZE TOTAL PRIZE
Red Clubs 24-61 39% 32 265 28 23 36 £144,581 £219,138
Dutch Art 23-41 56% 34 167 27 18 21 £239,697 £391,588
Dark Angel 21-58 36% 34 267 37 34 33 £156,846 £339,244
Excellent Art 14-43 33% 20 136 20 17 13 £123,748 £269,607
Amadeus Wolf 14-50 28% 20 206 19 29 22 £77,966 £132,393
Teofilo 11-34 32% 13 84 15 10 7 £128,979 £180,463
Dylan Thomas 9-27 33% 10 75 9 10 9 £64,499 £127,480
Strategic Prince 9-36 25% 11 121 11 10 8 £127,067 £202,014
Sir Percy 8-19 42% 10 72 4 15 9 £34,271 £60,599
Lawman 8-23 35% 10 67 11 3 6 £47,995 £100,300
Cockney Rebel 7-17 41% 10 81 11 11 9 £37,741 £56,550
Moss Vale 7-34 21% 11 90 7 5 6 £41,901 £56,060
Baltic King 5-14 36% 6 76 7 10 4 £16,721 £112,248
Notnowcato 5-16 31% 5 51 5 3 4 £15,655 £25,831
Multiplex 5-17 29% 5 64 9 6 11 £13,634 £31,041
Three Valleys 5-32 16% 6 115 9 11 15 £17,755 £32,928
Heliostatic 4-5 80% 6 20 5 1 0 £40,623 £51,203
Vital Equine 4-10 40% 6 48 6 5 5 £25,946 £42,768
Hard Spun 4-11 36% 6 27 5 5 5 £50,277 £92,856
Authorized 4-18 22% 4 31 2 2 5 £15,437 £22,925
Jeremy 4-18 22% 4 62 7 8 7 £25,949 £70,891
Rail Link 3-15 20% 3 36 1 1 3 £12,689 £16,165
Echo Of Light 3-19 16% 3 52 2 7 2 £9,707 £19,160
Jazil 2-4 50% 3 12 1 0 0 £10,739 £14,689
Misu Bond 2-8 25% 5 38 6 3 4 £11,914 £17,263
Alkaadhem 1-1 100% 3 8 1 0 0 £15,091 £16,401
Discreet Cat 1-1 100% 1 1 0 0 0 £3,235 £3,235
Scat Daddy 1-2 50% 2 5 0 0 1 £65,632 £69,652
Any Given Saturday 1-3 33% 1 5 1 2 0 £4,399 £8,286
Stormy River 1-3 33% 1 8 0 1 2 £3,235 £4,072
Windsor Knot 1-4 25% 1 18 2 4 2 £3,235 £7,613
Manduro 1-17 6% 1 35 3 4 5 £4,690 £11,267
Primary 0-1 0% 0 1 0 0 1 £0 £236
Scorpion 0-1 0% 0 1 0 0 0 £0 £0
Toylsome 0-1 0% 0 1 0 0 0 £0 £0
Mountain High 0-1 0% 0 1 0 0 0 £0 £0
Fantastic View 0-1 0% 0 1 0 0 0 £0 £0
Daaher 0-1 0% 0 1 0 0 0 £0 £0
Mustanfar 0-1 0% 0 2 0 0 0 £0 £0
Latent Heat 0-1 0% 0 3 1 0 1 £0 £1,232
Arcadio 0-1 0% 0 3 0 0 0 £0 £0
Istan 0-1 0% 0 3 0 0 0 £0 £0
Teuflesberg 0-1 0% 0 4 0 1 2 £0 £2,129
Orientor 0-3 0% 0 4 0 0 2 £0 £519
Invasor 0-3 0% 0 6 1 1 1 £0 £2,357
Street Sense 0-4 0% 0 10 2 2 2 £0 £4,629
Milk It Mick 0-6 0% 0 22 1 1 2 £0 £3,075
 
Latest update (TEOFILO surging to the top, almost):



STALLION WINNERS–RUNNERS WINS RUNS 2ND 3RD 4TH WIN PRIZE TOTAL PRIZE
Dutch Art 23–41 56% 34 178 29 19 23 £239,697 £397,826
Teofilo 12–37 32% 15 92 16 11 8 £311,984 £365,106
Dark Angel 21–58 36% 34 279 38 36 34 £156,846 £341,108
Excellent Art 14–44 32% 20 146 20 19 16 £123,748 £278,218
Red Clubs 24–62 39% 33 283 28 28 36 £151,050 £229,586
Strategic Prince 11–38 29% 13 129 11 11 8 £134,150 £209,607
Amadeus Wolf 14–51 27% 20 217 22 29 22 £77,966 £136,416
Lawman 8–23 35% 10 71 11 4 6 £47,995 £135,219
Dylan Thomas 9–31 29% 10 82 10 11 9 £64,499 £129,884
Baltic King 6–14 43% 7 81 7 10 5 £18,289 £118,361
Hard Spun 4–11 36% 6 29 5 5 5 £50,277 £92,856
Jeremy 4–20 20% 4 67 7 8 7 £25,949 £70,891
Scat Daddy 1–2 50% 2 6 0 0 1 £65,632 £69,652
Sir Percy 9–21 43% 11 79 5 15 10 £36,341 £63,583
Moss Vale 7–36 19% 11 98 8 5 8 £41,901 £57,585
Cockney Rebel 7–17 41% 10 84 12 11 9 £37,741 £57,128
Heliostatic 4–5 80% 6 23 5 1 1 £40,623 £51,457
Vital Equine 4–10 40% 6 50 6 5 5 £25,946 £42,768
Multiplex 6–17 35% 7 69 10 6 12 £17,042 £38,519
Three Valleys 5–34 15% 6 124 9 11 15 £17,755 £32,928
Notnowcato 5–17 29% 5 55 5 4 5 £15,655 £26,697
Authorized 4–19 21% 4 35 2 2 6 £15,437 £23,093
Echo Of Light 3–20 15% 3 57 3 7 3 £9,707 £19,901
Misu Bond 2–8 25% 5 42 6 3 4 £11,914 £17,263
Rail Link 3–15 20% 3 39 1 1 4 £12,689 £16,555
Alkaadhem 1–1 100% 3 8 1 0 0 £15,091 £16,401
Jazil 2–4 50% 3 13 1 0 0 £10,739 £14,689
Manduro 1–20 5% 1 40 5 5 5 £4,690 £13,149
Any Given Saturday 1–3 33% 1 6 2 2 0 £4,399 £9,267
Windsor Knot 1–4 25% 1 18 2 4 2 £3,235 £7,613
Street Sense 0–4 — 0 11 2 2 3 £0 £4,874
Stormy River 1–3 33% 1 10 0 2 2 £3,235 £4,408
Milk It Mick 0–6 — 0 23 2 1 2 £0 £3,578
Discreet Cat 1–1 100% 1 1 0 0 0 £3,235 £3,235
Invasor 0–3 — 0 6 1 1 1 £0 £2,357
Teuflesberg 0–1 — 0 4 0 1 2 £0 £2,129
Latent Heat 0–1 — 0 3 1 0 1 £0 £1,232
Orientor 0–3 — 0 4 0 0 2 £0 £519
Istan 0–1 — 0 4 1 0 0 £0 £481
Primary 0–1 — 0 1 0 0 1 £0 £236
Arcadio 0–1 — 0 3 0 0 0 £0 £0
Daaher 0–1 — 0 1 0 0 0 £0 £0
Toylsome 0–1 — 0 1 0 0 0 £0 £0
Fantastic View 0–1 — 0 1 0 0 0 £0 £0
Scorpion 0–1 — 0 1 0 0 0 £0 £0
Mountain High 0–1 — 0 1 0 0 0 £0 £0
Mustanfar 0–1 — 0 2 0 0 0 £0 £0
 
STALLION WINNERS–RUNNERS WINS RUNS 2ND 3RD 4TH WIN PRIZE TOTAL PRIZE
Dutch Art 23–44 52% 34 193 31 21 25 £239,697 £402,100
Teofilo 14–42 33% 17 102 18 11 8 £318,776 £373,075
Dark Angel 21–60 35% 34 293 40 40 35 £156,846 £343,749
Excellent Art 14–44 32% 20 159 22 20 16 £123,748 £285,353
Red Clubs 24–63 38% 34 300 33 28 36 £153,961 £237,341
Strategic Prince 11–41 27% 14 151 11 11 9 £135,768 £211,785
Amadeus Wolf 16–54 30% 22 230 23 29 25 £113,290 £173,849
Lawman 9–26 35% 11 78 12 5 6 £59,202 £148,663
Dylan Thomas 10–33 30% 11 93 10 14 9 £73,421 £140,615
Baltic King 6–14 43% 7 86 7 10 6 £18,289 £118,361
Hard Spun 5–11 45% 7 32 6 5 5 £54,611 £97,864
Jeremy 4–21 19% 4 73 7 8 7 £25,949 £70,891
Sir Percy 10–23 43% 12 88 5 15 10 £42,884 £70,704
Scat Daddy 1–2 50% 2 6 0 0 1 £65,632 £69,652
Moss Vale 7–37 19% 11 105 9 5 9 £41,901 £58,711
Cockney Rebel 7–19 37% 10 92 12 14 9 £37,741 £58,668
Heliostatic 4–6 67% 6 25 5 1 1 £40,623 £51,457
Vital Equine 4–11 36% 6 52 6 5 6 £25,946 £42,888
Multiplex 7–19 37% 8 78 10 7 13 £18,747 £40,505
Three Valleys 5–34 15% 6 132 10 12 16 £17,755 £33,937
Notnowcato 6–20 30% 6 61 5 4 5 £18,889 £29,931
Authorized 5–26 19% 5 47 3 3 6 £19,836 £29,505
Echo Of Light 3–23 13% 3 62 4 8 4 £9,707 £21,403
Misu Bond 3–8 38% 6 45 6 3 4 £14,889 £20,239
Rail Link 3–16 19% 3 47 2 2 4 £12,689 £17,793
Alkaadhem 1–1 100% 3 9 1 0 0 £15,091 £16,401
Jazil 2–4 50% 3 14 1 0 0 £10,739 £14,689
Manduro 1–22 5% 1 50 6 5 6 £4,690 £14,076
Any Given Saturday 1–3 33% 1 7 2 3 0 £4,399 £9,796
Windsor Knot 1–5 20% 1 20 2 5 2 £3,235 £8,257
Street Sense 0–5 — 0 12 3 2 3 £0 £5,856
Stormy River 1–3 33% 1 12 0 2 2 £3,235 £4,408
Milk It Mick 0–6 — 0 25 2 1 3 £0 £3,746
Discreet Cat 1–2 50% 1 2 0 0 0 £3,235 £3,235
Invasor 0–3 — 0 6 1 1 1 £0 £2,357
Teuflesberg 0–1 — 0 4 0 1 2 £0 £2,129
Latent Heat 0–1 — 0 3 1 0 1 £0 £1,232
Orientor 0–3 — 0 4 0 0 2 £0 £519
Istan 0–1 — 0 4 1 0 0 £0 £481
Primary 0–1 — 0 1 0 0 1 £0 £236
Arcadio 0–1 — 0 3 0 0 0 £0 £0
Mustanfar 0–1 — 0 2 0 0 0 £0 £0
Daaher 0–1 — 0 1 0 0 0 £0 £0
Mountain High 0–1 — 0 2 0 0 0 £0 £0
Scorpion 0–1 — 0 2 0 0 0 £0 £0
Toylsome 0–1 — 0 2 0 0 0 £0 £0
Fantastic View 0–1 — 0 1 0 0 0 £0 £0
 
Some perspective.

First season sires no. of mares covered.

Teofilo 158, winners to date 14
Dylan Thomas 152, 10
Red Clubs 142, 24
Strategic Prince 142, 11
Amedeus Wolf 132, 16
Excellent Art 129, 14
Dark Angel 112, 21
Dutch Art 105, 24
Lawman 104, 9
 
Last edited:
Taking Teofileo as as an example, his 14 winners came from 42 runners, but he covered a further 116 mares whose progeny, such as there was, has not made it to the track so far?
 
Back
Top