Forum Value Hunt..Join in.

Desert Orchid said:
For what it's worth, I think the form of the race might be very strong. It wouldn't have been the easiest race to price up in advance with several jobs lined up.
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the winner got a 5 length lead handed to it as well...i think it was a cracking first effort

people will look at what they did..and each week get better..although imo..we did a cracking job first time
 
My most profitable angle since I started punting in the late 1980s has been flat handicaps. And I've never analysed those races, I wouldn't have a clue about forming a tissue in one. I've had a horse in my notebook or tracker nowadays and I've steamed in when conditions suit.

I think having an opinion on every horse in a given races waters it down.
 
EC1 said:
the problem is that most races we would look Slim at will be main races on a Saturday where there is always a market if you want to look some days beforehand..if you don't pick decent races..then the results aren't as good..on past experience
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The midweek markets for weekend races are notoriously badly priced. I wouldn't worry about that.
 
we did have a late start this week Slim..lets see what we can pick for next weekend..maybe we can get a better shot at the second one.

the trouble you face then is..if we want ratings in by friday..we may be ignorant of ground..so weather watch important
 
Euronymous said:
My most profitable angle since I started punting in the late 1980s has been flat handicaps. And I've never analysed those races, I wouldn't have a clue about forming a tissue in one. I've had a horse in my notebook or tracker nowadays and I've steamed in when conditions suit.

I think having an opinion on every horse in a given races waters it down.
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its clearly not for you then Euro

i'm no expert in forming markets..but as each week passes i'll look at what did and build in corrections to it..hopefully we all will..its a cracking learning process for everyone really
 
not really thought about what type of races Euro tbh.conditions races could actually be harder to eek any value..i don't know..just going to take it week by week tbh

i don't relish handicaps mesen..this weeks was just an obvious one on a quiet weekend
 
So would anyone on here actually make a "value" bet over and above a horse which they think will win but which offers poorer "value" then ?
 
i would imagine most people won't back the one they think will win if its poor value..because doing so over a series of bets will give you winners..but no profit

without backing horses that win more time than the odds..you would be better off just keeping your stake..you will have more money in your pocket in 6 months time by backing nothing at all under those circumstances
 
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Diamond Geezer said:
So would anyone on here actually make a "value" bet over and above a horse which they think will win but which offers poorer "value" then ?
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If you back the one you think will win every time, regardless of price, then the selection isn't value-sensitive.

Of course, the one you think will win may also be value in your book, if you do do the analysis.
 
you were 7 minutes late there Grass:D

its the most important thing..best not bet at all without value..value just means you win money when staking same figure on a series of bets..if you just end with a good strike rate with no profit..be better off collecting cans off streets
 
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EC1 said:
you were 7 minutes late there Grass:D

its the most important thing..best not bet at all without value..value just means you win money when staking same figure on a series of bets..if you just end with a good strike rate with no profit..be better off collecting cans off streets
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So what percentage of losing bets would you factor in, I mean taking today's race if you bet on the winner you'd be four points to the good, not the seven points of the TH tissue admittedly, but still four points to the good even though "poor value". You may have a run of say three losing bets but would still be in profit. If you factor in X number of losing bets and don't place a bet unless the price is a pre determined one say 4-1, surely you could make a profit with patience and discipline.
 
Diamond Geezer said:
So what percentage of losing bets would you factor in, I mean taking today's race if you bet on the winner you'd be four points to the good, not the seven points of the TH tissue admittedly, but still four points to the good even though "poor value". You may have a run of say three losing bets but would still be in profit. If you factor in X number of losing bets and don't place a bet unless the price is a pre determined one say 4-1, surely you could make a profit with patience and discipline.
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you need to look at a bigger series of bets DG

using todays winner..we thought it 7/1..won at 11/4..

if you took that over 100 bets..[and the winner didn't get a 5 length gimme everytime:)]..in our joint view it would win only 12% of the time..so you would have staked £100 on the 100 bets..and got the winner 12 times..at 11/4 you would have a return of £57..so backing horses like todays winner at 11/4 would return 57 quid..a loss of 46 quid for every 100

even if we had taken the 9/2 which was available..which was still deemed poor value..over 100 bets you would still lose 34 quid

so..if our judgement is correct..by backing todays winner type over a series of bets would leave you worse off than not actually betting at all..you would still have yer 100 quid intact
 
It's a slightly different thing, imo, DG.

Percentage of losing bets, and how long you can sustain a negative run, is relevant to managing your tank - not your selection criteria.

The target of value betting is to consistently bet your selections at higher than market-value. If your selections run closer to your odds than the market odds.....and - most importantly - you are a good enough student of form,..........then you should show profit in the long term.

You do need to have sufficient knowledge of form to compile an accurate book, but that's generally the case with any approach.....otherwise you would be as well using a pin.

EC1.......is it worth you also posting the horse you think will win each of the selected races, and tracking that too, to see how it measures against there perceived TH value bet?

Get yer finger out, son. :cool:
 
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just to add to that...DG..

if we are correct with our assessment...,,backing the one that was value today..over 100 bets..we would be backing a horse at 5/1..that wins 21% of the time..so our return would be 126 quid to 100 staked...which is winning money
 
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BTW

There is a bout ten thousand "double post" edits on this thread. Are you all aware you can delete a post?
 
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