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I used to have a program that calculated the odds but felt it was flawed and I'm not that heavily into the maths of it. When I applied to Timeform for a job they asked me to analyse a couple of races in advance and make up a 100% book on them.

I replied with the analyses but told them I didn't do books. I also told them the types of race they were asking me to look at weren't the types I specialise in so they told me thanks for your interest.

I do my ratings and tabulate them in order to get a feel for the race. If something I think is the most likely winner isn't favourite it pretty much automatically becomes value in my 'book'. If it is favourite, I'm left with the decision of whether or not to back it. If it's 3/1 and I think it should be shorter I'll probably back it. The more confident I am the more likely I am to back a favourite and I have in the past happily taken even money about some horses. If I think it is 'buying money', usually.

But almost of my bets are what I'd call good prices.
 
this the best i can find..its from 2012..betfair revolution was well under way

according to this link

http://sports-media-society.com/how-many-favourites-win-horse-races-in-the-uk/

turf non handicap favourites won 38% of races

RSB from 95/96 shows the fav won 39% of races

handicap races fav won 25.7% of races

RSB from 95/96 shows fav's won 24%

So if you add em together...the same number of favourites won in both time periods..and yet there is a wealth more info out there in 2012..and we have betfair squeezing all value apparently

and yet..with all that info and superior knowldege/betfair..fav's won same in 1996

doesn't look to me like increased info has made one jot of difference..its a fallacy imo

the same value is there as it was in 1996...nowts changed..we just think it has
 
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EC1 said:
this the best i can find..its from 2012..betfair revolution was well under way

according to this link

http://sports-media-society.com/how-many-favourites-win-horse-races-in-the-uk/

turf non handicap favourites won 38% of races

RSB from 95/96 shows the fav won 39% of races

handicap races fav won 25.7% of races

RSB from 95/96 shows fav's won 24%

So if you add em together...the same number of favourites won in both time periods..and yet there is a wealth more info out there in 2012..and we have betfair squeezing all value apparently

and yet..with all that info and superior knowldege/betfair..fav's won same in 1996

doesn't look to me like increased info has made one jot of difference..its a fallacy imo

the same value is there as it was in 1996...nowts changed..we just think it has
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http://sports-media-society.com/how-many-favourites-win-horse-races-in-the-uk/
 
You can find an edge in ante-post betting, by understanding the programme book, and having a nose for which horses are likely to run in your target race.
 
thats the same site i posted Slim..thats where thsoe figures come from

the RSB is 2 years worh from 1996 Racing Systems Builder

they show..the punter is not any more genned up now than he was 1996
 
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Mathematically speaking those favourites needed to go off at average odd of bigger than 4/1 and 5/2 though. And when you analyse the winning percentages in odds bands you quickly understand that backing favourites is the quick way to the poor house.

Maurice is spot on with his earlier post. If you believe horse should be favourite and it isn't based on your own systematic and methodical selection approach you have a chance of being ahead, as I suspect you are from your own sand figures? You don't need an alternative tissue to tell you your own selection isn't favourite.

Anyway an average tissue sample from members here will be polluted by a combination of finger in the air and influence from market prices.
 
Maruco said:
Mathematically speaking those favourites needed to go off at average odd of bigger than 4/1 and 5/2 though. And when you analyse the winning percentages in odds bands you quickly understand that backing favourites is the quick way to the poor house.

Maurice is spot on with his earlier post. If you believe horse should be favourite and it isn't based on your own systematic and methodical selection approach you have a chance of being ahead, as I suspect you are from your own sand figures? You don't need an alternative tissue to tell you your own selection isn't favourite.

Anyway an average tissue sample from members here will be polluted by a combination of finger in the air and influence from market prices.
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s
i was demonstarting that in two periods..fav's as a whole do not win more races..if we are all genned up more now..then those basic fav figures should be higher..they aren't

so its the same challenge now as it was in 1996..no different
 
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EC1 said:
but those stats already there tell you..handicap races..non handicap races..the same %

you say we know more now..betfair etc.....then we should be making more favourites win than we were in 1996..we aren't
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The link posted is 5 years of data presumably 2007-2012. The fav won 31.69$ of races in that period.
 
It's the analysis of percentages to prices that's critical and that's why multiples give an edge. I had the stats but I can't find where they're saved. When I turn them up I'll post them.
 
By the way, you said something earlier that might be overlooked Slim. Pricing is significantly less accurate midweek when compared to the weekend. I've got some stats on that somewhere too.
 
Maruco said:
By the way, you said something earlier that might be overlooked Slim. Pricing is significantly less accurate midweek when compared to the weekend. I've got some stats on that somewhere too.
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As soon as jockey bookings and final fields are known the midweek prices can be put in the bin. Its pretty basic stuff. The closer we get to the race the more information there is to factor into the price.
 
SlimChance said:
As soon as jockey bookings and final fields are known the midweek prices can be put in the bin. Its pretty basic stuff. The closer we get to the race the more information there is to factor into the price.
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Not just that. There's less liquidity during the week and the markets don't always form in the same way as they do at the weekend. It takes a lot less money to move a market during the week than it does at a Festival at the other end of the scale.

Actually given where you work I'd be interested to know if you think the traders are generally more complacent during the week than they are for the big races at the weekend?
 
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